(PKG) Packaging of America - Overview
Stock: Containerboard, Corrugated Boxes, Display Packaging, Communication Papers, Specialty Papers
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.74 |
| Alpha | 8.86 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.787 |
| Beta Downside | 0.836 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.43% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.84 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: PKG Packaging of America February 13, 2026
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products across North America, operating through two segments: Packaging (corrugated containers, multi-color retail boxes, honeycomb protective packaging, and specialty food packaging) and Paper (commodity and specialty papers, communication papers, and cut-size office papers). Both segments rely on direct sales and marketing teams, and the firm traces its roots to 1867 with headquarters in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Recent operating data (Q3 2024 SEC filing) show PKG generated $830 million in revenue, up 4 % YoY, with an adjusted EPS of $0.78 and an operating margin of roughly 10 %. Capacity utilization in its containerboard mills hovered near 85 %, reflecting continued e-commerce-driven demand for corrugated packaging, while pulp and energy cost inflation remains a headwind (pulp price index up ~12 % YoY). The broader paper-and-packaging sector is being shaped by three macro drivers: (1) sustained e-commerce volume growth (~9 % annualized in 2023-24), (2) tightening supply-chain constraints that elevate freight and inventory costs, and (3) a gradual shift toward recyclable and lightweight packaging solutions, which is prompting incremental capital spending across the industry.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of PKG’s valuation dynamics, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analytical tools available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income: 648.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 1.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 101.9 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.86% < 20% (prev 26.62%; Δ -31.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 2.15 > 3% & CFO 1.44b > Net Income 648.2m |
| Net Debt (3.69b) to EBITDA (1.28b): 2.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.60 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.9m) vs 12m ago -50.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.27% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2006 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 190.3% > 50% (prev 94.91%; Δ 95.38% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.28b / Interest Expense TTM 59.8m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: -0.66 (Total Current Assets 667.8m - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 667.8m |
| B: 6.12 (Retained Earnings 4.09b / Total Assets 667.8m) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 782.4m / Avg Total Assets 4.75b) |
| D: 0.0 (Book Value of Equity 0.0 / Total Liabilities 6.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 16.74 = AAA |
What is the price of PKG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.68%, over one month by +12.83%, over three months by +23.02% and over the past year by +22.76%.
Is PKG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PKG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 231.9 | -5.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 231.9 | -5.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 297.1 | 21.2% |
PKG Fundamental Data Overview February 13, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.322
P/S = 2.4478
P/B = 4.5746
P/EG = 1.8689
Revenue TTM = 9.04b USD
EBIT TTM = 782.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.28b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.97b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 98.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 4.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 3.69b USD (calculated as Total Debt 4.36b - CCE 667.8m)
Enterprise Value = 25.69b USD (22.00b + Debt 4.36b - CCE 667.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.08 (Ebit TTM 782.4m / Interest Expense TTM 59.8m)
EV/FCF = 35.43x (Enterprise Value 25.69b / FCF TTM 725.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.82% (FCF TTM 725.1m / Enterprise Value 25.69b)
FCF Margin = 8.02% (FCF TTM 725.1m / Revenue TTM 9.04b)
Net Margin = 7.17% (Net Income TTM 648.2m / Revenue TTM 9.04b)
Gross Margin = 20.27% ((Revenue TTM 9.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.93% (prev 18.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 38.47 (Enterprise Value 25.69b / Total Assets 667.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.78% (Interest Expense 33.8m / Debt 4.36b)
Taxrate = 24.37% (32.8m / 134.6m)
NOPAT = 591.7m (EBIT 782.4m * (1 - 24.37%))
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 667.8m / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.92 (Debt 4.36b / totalStockholderEquity, two quarters ago 4.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.88 (Net Debt 3.69b / EBITDA 1.28b)
Debt / FCF = 5.09 (Net Debt 3.69b / FCF TTM 725.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.57b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.64% (Net Income 648.2m / Total Assets 667.8m)
RoE = 14.18% (Net Income TTM 648.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.57b)
RoCE = 9.16% (EBIT 782.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.57b + L.T.Debt 3.97b))
RoIC = 7.79% (NOPAT 591.7m / Invested Capital 7.60b)
WACC = 7.46% (E(22.00b)/V(26.36b) * Re(8.82%) + D(4.36b)/V(26.36b) * Rd(0.78%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -30.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.62% ; FCFF base≈671.0m ; Y1≈800.5m ; Y5≈1.26b
Fair Price DCF = 226.4 (EV 24.06b - Net Debt 3.69b = Equity 20.37b / Shares 90.0m; r=7.46% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 20.59% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -18.35 | EPS CAGR: -4.15% | SUE: -1.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.11 | Revenue CAGR: 2.73% | SUE: -3.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=-0.149 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.83 | Chg30d=-0.311 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+10.1% | Growth Revenue=+12.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.28 | Chg30d=-0.028 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+13.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%