(PKG) Packaging of America - Overview
Stock: Containerboard, Corrugated Packaging, Cut-Size Office Papers, Specialty Papers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.31% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.74% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 50.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.16 |
| Alpha | -19.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.811 |
| Beta Downside | 0.791 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.43% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.65 |
Description: PKG Packaging of America December 19, 2025
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper, operating through two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging segment produces corrugated containers, multi-color retail boxes, honeycomb protectors, and specialty packaging for food and industrial goods, selling primarily via a direct sales force. The Paper segment supplies commodity and specialty papers-including cut-size office, printing, and white papers-through its own sales organization.
Key economic drivers for PKG include the sustained growth of e-commerce, which fuels demand for lightweight, high-strength corrugated solutions, and rising raw-material costs (softwood pulp and recycled fiber) that compress margins. Sustainability regulations and consumer preference for recyclable packaging also push the company toward higher recycled-content blends, while freight rate volatility influences end-customer shipping costs and packaging spend.
Recent performance metrics show FY2024 revenue of roughly $5.3 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin near 13 %, and a recycling-content ratio of 45 % across its containerboard portfolio-both above the industry average of ~38 %. For analysts seeking deeper quantitative insight, a quick look at ValueRay’s proprietary valuation model can surface nuanced risk-adjusted upside scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 767.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.09% < 20% (prev 26.19%; Δ 0.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.44b > Net Income 767.5m |
| Net Debt (3.72b) to EBITDA (1.72b): 2.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (89.6m) vs 12m ago 0.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.03% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2082 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 89.41% > 50% (prev 93.39%; Δ -3.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.72b / Interest Expense TTM 71.5m) |
Altman Z'' 4.06
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 3.50b - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 10.98b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 4.09b / Total Assets 10.98b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.09b / Avg Total Assets 9.87b) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 4.05b / Total Liabilities 6.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.06 = AA |
Beneish M -2.79
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 1.41b/1.22b, Revenue 8.82b/8.18b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 21.03% / 21.08%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 8.82b / 8.18b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 767.5m - CFO 1.44b) / TA 10.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of PKG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.66%, over one month by +5.48%, over three months by +12.67% and over the past year by +4.95%.
Is PKG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PKG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 228.7 | 3.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 228.7 | 3.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 254.2 | 15.4% |
PKG Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.8679
P/S = 2.2938
P/B = 4.1972
P/EG = 1.6563
Revenue TTM = 8.82b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.09b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.72b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 98.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 23.84b USD (20.12b + Debt 4.36b - CCE 634.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.18 (Ebit TTM 1.09b / Interest Expense TTM 71.5m)
EV/FCF = 32.88x (Enterprise Value 23.84b / FCF TTM 725.1m)
FCF Yield = 3.04% (FCF TTM 725.1m / Enterprise Value 23.84b)
FCF Margin = 8.22% (FCF TTM 725.1m / Revenue TTM 8.82b)
Net Margin = 8.70% (Net Income TTM 767.5m / Revenue TTM 8.82b)
Gross Margin = 21.03% ((Revenue TTM 8.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.93% (prev 22.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.17 (Enterprise Value 23.84b / Total Assets 10.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.78% (Interest Expense 33.8m / Debt 4.36b)
Taxrate = 24.37% (32.8m / 134.6m)
NOPAT = 821.1m (EBIT 1.09b * (1 - 24.37%))
Current Ratio = 3.16 (Total Current Assets 3.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.92 (Debt 4.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.16 (Net Debt 3.72b / EBITDA 1.72b)
Debt / FCF = 5.13 (Net Debt 3.72b / FCF TTM 725.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.57b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.78% (Net Income 767.5m / Total Assets 10.98b)
RoE = 16.78% (Net Income TTM 767.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.57b)
RoCE = 12.71% (EBIT 1.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.57b + L.T.Debt 3.97b))
RoIC = 11.07% (NOPAT 821.1m / Invested Capital 7.42b)
WACC = 7.42% (E(20.12b)/V(24.48b) * Re(8.90%) + D(4.36b)/V(24.48b) * Rd(0.78%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.75% ; FCFF base≈671.0m ; Y1≈800.5m ; Y5≈1.26b
Fair Price DCF = 228.4 (EV 24.27b - Net Debt 3.72b = Equity 20.55b / Shares 90.0m; r=7.42% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 20.59% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -46.36 | EPS CAGR: -49.20% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 35.34 | Revenue CAGR: 2.93% | SUE: -3.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.28 | Chg30d=-0.080 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.14 | Chg30d=-0.405 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+12.1% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%