PMT Stock Analysis: PennyMac Mortgage | NYSE

REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 815m USD | 12M Return: -13.9% | US70931T1034 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Mortgage-Backed Securities, Servicing Rights, Risk Transfer, Residential Loans
Total Rating 21
Safety 49
Buy Signal -0.70
REIT - Mortgage
Industry Rotation: +1.5
Market Cap: 815M
Avg Turnover: 12.1M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility24.8%
VaR 5th Pctl4.13%
VaR vs Median1.17%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Rel. Str. IBD8.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group16.7
Character TTM
Beta0.370
Beta Downside0.519
Hurst Exponent0.517
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD28.11%
CAGR/Max DD0.00
CAGR/Mean DD0.02
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of PMT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.32, "2021-09": -0.45, "2021-12": -0.28, "2022-03": -0.32, "2022-06": -0.88, "2022-09": 0.01, "2022-12": -0.07, "2023-03": 0.5, "2023-06": 0.16, "2023-09": 0.51, "2023-12": 0.44, "2024-03": 0.39, "2024-06": 0.17, "2024-09": 0.36, "2024-12": 0.41, "2025-03": -0.01, "2025-06": -0.04, "2025-09": 0.55, "2025-12": 0.48, "2026-03": 0.16, "2026-06": 0.23,
EPS CAGR: -10.58%
EPS Trend: -40.2%
Last SUE: -0.31
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of PMT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 421.064, 2021-09: 192.095, 2021-12: 221.209, 2022-03: -221.882, 2022-06: -112.279, 2022-09: 84.091, 2022-12: 104.406, 2023-03: 227.81, 2023-06: 178.449, 2023-09: 2.503, 2023-12: 317.105, 2024-03: 102.407, 2024-06: 121.754, 2024-09: 265.781999, 2024-12: 14.66, 2025-03: 189.219, 2025-06: 237.183, 2025-09: 290.541, 2025-12: 425.889, 2026-03: 451.249, 2026-06: 477.646,
Rev. CAGR: 40.89%
Rev. Trend: 78.5%
Last SUE: 0.86
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +0.2% 16
Feb -1.8% 18
Mar -0.1% 10
Apr -0.2% 17
May -2.5% 22
Jun +2.5% 56
Jul +0.5% 17
Aug -2.5% 12
Sep -1.1% 50
Oct -0.5% 0
Nov +5.1% 31
Dec +0.1% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: PMT PennyMac Mortgage

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT) is a mortgage REIT that invests in U.S. residential mortgage-related assets through three segments: Credit Sensitive Strategies (CRT agreements, subordinate and credit-linked MBS), Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies (mortgage servicing rights, agency and senior non-agency MBS, CMOs, and interest rate hedging), and Correspondent Production (purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit-quality loans, primarily to government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). The company is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which allows it to avoid U.S. federal income tax on taxable income distributed to shareholders, and it was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California. Unlike traditional equity REITs that own physical property, mortgage REITs like PMT generate income primarily from the spread between the yields on their mortgage-related assets and their funding costs.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Mortgage rate volatility swings MSR valuations and hedging results
  • Correspondent Production volume surges on refinancing wave
  • CRT and subordinate MBS spreads pressure Credit Sensitive earnings
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 166.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.40 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.09 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -484.6% < 20% (prev -780.9%; Δ 296.3% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.40 > 3% & CFO -10.1b > Net Income 166.3m
Net Debt (22.5b) to EBITDA (1.12b): 20.14 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.05 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (87.2m) vs 12m ago 0.22% < -2%
Gross Margin: 79.81% > 18% (prev 35.28%; Δ 44.54% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 7.85% > 50% (prev 4.21%; Δ 3.65% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.07b)
Altman Z'' -1.72
A: -0.32 (Total Current Assets 421.0m - Total Current Liabilities 8.39b) / Total Assets 25.1b
B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -618.0m / Total Assets 25.1b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.12b / Avg Total Assets 20.9b)
D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 1.85b / Total Liabilities 23.2b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.72 = D
What is the price of PMT shares?

As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.23 with a total of 651,539 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.25%, over one month by -4.05%, over three months by -7.45% and over the past year by -13.85%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.90 (which is 3.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is PMT a buy, sell or hold?

PennyMac Mortgage has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.22. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PMT.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the PMT price?
Analysts Target Price 11.3 22.3%
PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 815.3m (815.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 6.4931
P/E Forward = 7.0373
P/S = 3.9968
P/B = 0.6215
P/EG = 0.7576
Revenue TTM = 1.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.5b USD (calculated: Debt 22.9b - CCE 421.0m)
Enterprise Value = 23.3b USD (815.3m + Debt 22.9b - CCE 421.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.04 (Ebit TTM 1.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.07b)
EV/FCF = -2.31x (Enterprise Value 23.3b / FCF TTM -10.1b)
FCF Yield = -43.20% (FCF TTM -10.1b / Enterprise Value 23.3b)
 FCF Margin = -612.2% (FCF TTM -10.1b / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
 Net Margin = 10.11% (Net Income TTM 166.3m / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
Gross Margin = 79.81% ((Revenue TTM 1.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 332.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.06% (prev 92.34%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 23.3b / Total Assets 25.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.69% (Interest Expense 1.07b / Debt 22.9b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 881.2m (EBIT 1.12b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 421.0m / Total Current Liabilities 8.39b)
Debt / Equity = 12.37 (Debt 22.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 20.14 (Net Debt 22.5b / EBITDA 1.12b)
 Debt / FCF = -2.23 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 22.5b / FCF TTM -10.1b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.79% (Net Income 166.3m / Total Assets 25.1b)
RoE = 8.88% (Net Income TTM 166.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
RoCE = 6.80% (EBIT 1.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 14.5b))
RoIC = 3.52% (NOPAT 881.2m / Invested Capital 25.0b)
WACC = 3.82% (E(815.3m)/V(23.7b) * Re(7.28%) + D(22.9b)/V(23.7b) * Rd(4.69%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -50.97 | Cagr: -10.18%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -10.1b)
 EPS Correlation: -40.20 | EPS CAGR: -10.58% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.48 | Revenue CAGR: 40.89% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-7.10% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.06 | Chg30d=-10.15% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=-6.93% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+30.6% | GrowthRev=+12.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)