POST Stock Analysis: Post Holdings | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.470m USD | 12M Return: -30.6% | US7374461041 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 76.7M
EPS Trend: 93.1%
Qual. Beats: 11
Rev. Trend: 91.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) is a U.S.-based consumer packaged goods holding company that manufactures, markets, and distributes branded and private label food products across four reporting segments: Post Consumer Brands (cereals, peanut butter, and pet food), Weetabix (RTE cereals, hot cereals, and protein shakes), Foodservice (egg and potato products), and Refrigerated Retail (side dishes, sausages, eggs, and dairy). The company owns and licenses a broad portfolio of well-known brands including Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, Pebbles, Peter Pan, Weetabix, Alpen, Rachael Ray Nutrish, Natures Recipe, Bob Evans, Simply Potatoes, Egg Beaters, and Crystal Farms. Post distributes through virtually every major retail channel-grocery, mass merchandise, supercenters, clubs, dollar, convenience, drug, pet supply, and natural/specialty-alongside foodservice distributors, national restaurant chains, military, and ecommerce. Founded in 1895 and headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Post operates within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods & Meats) and completed its IPO in 2012. Its holding-company model allows it to acquire and operate distinct food brands and categories under one corporate umbrella, a common structure among diversified packaged food peers.
- Serial acquisitions expand portfolio amid elevated leverage
- Cereal volumes decline under private label pricing pressure
- Pet food segment grows with premium brand acquisitions
| Net Income: 293.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.90% < 20% (prev 20.51%; Δ -9.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 992.6m > Net Income 293.0m |
| Net Debt (7.64b) to EBITDA (1.67b): 4.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.3m) vs 12m ago -17.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.89% > 18% (prev 26.91%; Δ -0.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.16% > 50% (prev 59.25%; Δ 4.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 813.0m / Interest Expense TTM 419.1m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.99b - Total Current Liabilities 1.08b) / Total Assets 12.9b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 2.36b / Total Assets 12.9b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 813.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.1b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 3.08b / Total Liabilities 9.76b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.81 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 699.3m/694.4m, Revenue 8.41b/7.92b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 26.91% / 26.89%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 8.41b / 7.92b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 293.0m - CFO 992.6m) / TA 12.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 73.15 with a total of 723,130 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.47%, over one month by -9.76%, over three months by -18.05% and over the past year by -30.55%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 70.10 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Post Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy POST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 105.2 | 43.8% |
P/E Trailing = 13.9218
P/E Forward = 28.2486
P/S = 0.4125
P/B = 1.1275
P/EG = 1.1706
Revenue TTM = 8.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 813.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.67b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.63b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.30m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 277.9m
Net Debt = 7.64b USD (calculated: Debt 7.91b - CCE 265.6m)
Enterprise Value = 11.1b USD (3.47b + Debt 7.91b - CCE 265.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.94 (Ebit TTM 813.0m / Interest Expense TTM 419.1m)
EV/FCF = 20.10x (Enterprise Value 11.1b / FCF TTM 553.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 553.1m / Enterprise Value 11.1b)
FCF Margin = 6.57% (FCF TTM 553.1m / Revenue TTM 8.41b)
Net Margin = 3.48% (Net Income TTM 293.0m / Revenue TTM 8.41b)
Gross Margin = 26.89% ((Revenue TTM 8.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.07% (prev 26.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 11.1b / Total Assets 12.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.30% (Interest Expense 419.1m / Debt 7.91b)
Taxrate = 25.48% (100.4m / 394.0m)
NOPAT = 605.8m (EBIT 813.0m * (1 - 25.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.85 (Total Current Assets 1.99b / Total Current Liabilities 1.08b)
Debt / Equity = 2.57 (Debt 7.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.57 (Net Debt 7.64b / EBITDA 1.67b)
Debt / FCF = 13.82 (Net Debt 7.64b / FCF TTM 553.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.23% (Net Income 293.0m / Total Assets 12.9b)
RoE = 8.69% (Net Income TTM 293.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.37b)
RoCE = 7.39% (EBIT 813.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.37b + L.T.Debt 7.63b))
RoIC = 5.26% (NOPAT 605.8m / Invested Capital 11.5b)
WACC = 4.29% (E(3.47b)/V(11.4b) * Re(5.08%) + D(7.91b)/V(11.4b) * Rd(5.30%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.15 | Cagr: -11.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈504.9m ; Y1≈578.8m ; Y5≈851.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 114.2 (EV 12.8b - Net Debt 7.64b = Equity 5.17b / Shares 45.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.11 | EPS CAGR: 14.09% | SUE: 1.57 | # QB: 11
Revenue Correlation: 91.37 | Revenue CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: -2.16 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=1.64 | Chg30d=-20.98% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.65 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-10% | GrowthEPS=+5.9% | GrowthRev=+0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=7.20 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=-5.9% | GrowthRev=-2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -59% (up=3, down=16)