POST Stock Analysis: Post Holdings | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.839m USD | 12M Return: -19.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 78.9M
EPS Trend: 91.6%
Qual. Beats: 10
Rev. Trend: 90.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) is a U.S.-based consumer packaged goods holding company that manufactures, markets, and distributes branded and private label food products across four reporting segments: Post Consumer Brands (cereals, peanut butter, and pet food), Weetabix (RTE cereals, hot cereals, and protein shakes), Foodservice (egg and potato products), and Refrigerated Retail (side dishes, sausages, eggs, and dairy). The company owns and licenses a broad portfolio of well-known brands including Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, Pebbles, Peter Pan, Weetabix, Alpen, Rachael Ray Nutrish, Natures Recipe, Bob Evans, Simply Potatoes, Egg Beaters, and Crystal Farms. Post distributes through virtually every major retail channel-grocery, mass merchandise, supercenters, clubs, dollar, convenience, drug, pet supply, and natural/specialty-alongside foodservice distributors, national restaurant chains, military, and ecommerce. Founded in 1895 and headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Post operates within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods & Meats) and completed its IPO in 2012. Its holding-company model allows it to acquire and operate distinct food brands and categories under one corporate umbrella, a common structure among diversified packaged food peers.
- Serial acquisitions expand portfolio amid elevated leverage
- Cereal volumes decline under private label pricing pressure
- Pet food segment grows with premium brand acquisitions
| Net Income: 338.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.18% < 20% (prev 14.61%; Δ -3.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.01b > Net Income 338.4m |
| Net Debt (7.64b) to EBITDA (1.42b): 5.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (54.1m) vs 12m ago -14.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.56% > 18% (prev 26.89%; Δ -0.33% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.55% > 50% (prev 61.60%; Δ 3.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 850.0m / Interest Expense TTM 399.4m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 2.05b - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 13.0b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 2.30b / Total Assets 13.0b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 850.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.9b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 3.19b / Total Liabilities 9.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.84 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 728.8m/697.8m, Revenue 8.45b/7.88b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 26.89% / 26.56%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 8.45b / 7.88b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 338.4m - CFO 1.01b) / TA 13.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 86.28 with a total of 559,960 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.01%, over one month by -7.37%, over three months by -13.60% and over the past year by -19.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 82.40 (which is 4.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Post Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy POST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 120.3 | 39.5% |
P/E Trailing = 14.4048
P/E Forward = 28.2486
P/S = 0.4544
P/B = 1.2189
P/EG = 1.1706
Revenue TTM = 8.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 850.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.42b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.63b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.30m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 277.9m
Net Debt = 7.64b USD (calculated: Debt 7.91b - CCE 269.4m)
Enterprise Value = 11.5b USD (3.84b + Debt 7.91b - CCE 269.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.13 (Ebit TTM 850.0m / Interest Expense TTM 399.4m)
EV/FCF = 22.21x (Enterprise Value 11.5b / FCF TTM 516.8m)
FCF Yield = 4.50% (FCF TTM 516.8m / Enterprise Value 11.5b)
FCF Margin = 6.12% (FCF TTM 516.8m / Revenue TTM 8.45b)
Net Margin = 4.01% (Net Income TTM 338.4m / Revenue TTM 8.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.56% ((Revenue TTM 8.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.20b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.92% (prev 27.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 11.5b / Total Assets 13.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.05% (Interest Expense 399.4m / Debt 7.91b)
Taxrate = 24.84% (112.0m / 450.8m)
NOPAT = 638.8m (EBIT 850.0m * (1 - 24.84%))
Current Ratio = 1.85 (Total Current Assets 2.05b / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
Debt / Equity = 2.48 (Debt 7.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.38 (Net Debt 7.64b / EBITDA 1.42b)
Debt / FCF = 14.78 (Net Debt 7.64b / FCF TTM 516.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.63% (Net Income 338.4m / Total Assets 13.0b)
RoE = 9.40% (Net Income TTM 338.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.60b)
RoCE = 7.57% (EBIT 850.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.60b + L.T.Debt 7.63b))
RoIC = 5.51% (NOPAT 638.8m / Invested Capital 11.6b)
WACC = 4.50% (E(3.84b)/V(11.7b) * Re(5.95%) + D(7.91b)/V(11.7b) * Rd(5.05%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -9.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.89% ; FCFF base≈509.8m ; Y1≈526.8m ; Y5≈591.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 33.07 (EV 9.14b - Net Debt 7.64b = Equity 1.50b / Shares 45.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.50% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.59 | EPS CAGR: 17.17% | SUE: 2.06 | # QB: 10
Revenue Correlation: 90.39 | Revenue CAGR: 7.37% | SUE: -0.67 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.71 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+6.7% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.69 | Chg30d=-0.85% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+12.6% | GrowthRev=-0.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)