(PRG) PROG Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Lease-To-Own, Revolving Credit, BNPL, Credit-Building
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.94% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 36.07% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 14.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 58.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.55% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.79 |
| Alpha | -53.04 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.36 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.370 |
| Beta | 1.072 |
| Beta Downside | 0.892 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.86% |
| Mean DD | 20.40% |
| Median DD | 17.99% |
Description: PRG PROG Holdings November 16, 2025
PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is a U.S.-based fintech holding company that offers lease-to-own and revolving-credit solutions through its two operating segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive Financial. The firm enables consumers to acquire goods via in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own programs, provides “buy-now-pay-later” (BNPL) plans structured as four interest-free installments, and offers the Build platform to help users improve their credit scores. The company, originally founded as Aaron’s Holdings in 1955, rebranded to PROG Holdings in December 2020 and is headquartered in Draper, Utah.
Key operating metrics from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show total revenue of approximately **$1.1 billion**, with Progressive Leasing contributing roughly **70 %** of that amount. The segment’s lease-to-own portfolio grew **~9 % YoY**, driven by strong consumer demand for flexible financing amid a still-elevated inflation environment. Vive Financial’s revolving-credit balances expanded **~12 % YoY**, reflecting a broader shift toward second-look credit products as traditional credit cards tighten underwriting standards. Macro-level, the consumer-finance sector is sensitive to **interest-rate movements**; the Fed’s policy stance in 2024 will likely influence both lease-to-own default rates and BNPL adoption.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of PRG’s valuation and risk profile, you may find it useful to explore the company’s analytics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income (163.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 150.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.19 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 10.40pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 8.84% (prev 38.76%; Δ -29.91pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 (>3.0%) and CFO 305.4m > Net Income 163.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-292.6m) to EBITDA (1.47b) ratio: -0.20 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (40.5m) change vs 12m ago -6.23% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 49.69% (prev 33.57%; Δ 16.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 167.5% (prev 167.2%; Δ 0.39pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.72 (EBITDA TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 49.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.70
| (A) 0.14 = (Total Current Assets 356.4m - Total Current Liabilities 134.6m) / Total Assets 1.55b |
| (B) 1.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.56b / Total Assets 1.55b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 1.01 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 232.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.50b |
| (D) 0.41 = Book Value of Equity 346.8m / Total Liabilities 843.0m |
| Total Rating: 5.70 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.98
| 1. Piotroski 9.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 19.57% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.93 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.20 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.57)% |
| 7. RoE 24.49% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -37.51% |
| 9. EPS Trend 60.14% |
What is the price of PRG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.12%, over one month by +4.71%, over three months by -14.97% and over the past year by -37.31%.
Is PRG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PRG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39.7 | 33.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39.7 | 33.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 29 | -2.8% |
PRG Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 7.368
P/E Forward = 7.8431
P/S = 0.4579
P/B = 1.6317
Beta = 1.713
Revenue TTM = 2.51b USD
EBIT TTM = 232.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.47b USD
Long Term Debt = 594.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 46.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 655.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -292.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.51b USD (1.15b + Debt 655.1m - CCE 292.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.72 (Ebit TTM 232.7m / Interest Expense TTM 49.3m)
FCF Yield = 19.57% (FCF TTM 295.6m / Enterprise Value 1.51b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 295.6m / Revenue TTM 2.51b)
Net Margin = 6.54% (Net Income TTM 163.9m / Revenue TTM 2.51b)
Gross Margin = 49.69% ((Revenue TTM 2.51b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 35.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 1.51b / Total Assets 1.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.20% (Interest Expense 7.88m / Debt 655.1m)
Taxrate = 27.44% (12.5m / 45.6m)
NOPAT = 168.8m (EBIT 232.7m * (1 - 27.44%))
Current Ratio = 2.65 (Total Current Assets 356.4m / Total Current Liabilities 134.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.93 (Debt 655.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 703.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.20 (Net Debt -292.6m / EBITDA 1.47b)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -292.6m / FCF TTM 295.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 669.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.60% (Net Income 163.9m / Total Assets 1.55b)
RoE = 24.49% (Net Income TTM 163.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 669.2m)
RoCE = 18.41% (EBIT 232.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 669.2m + L.T.Debt 594.5m))
RoIC = 13.23% (NOPAT 168.8m / Invested Capital 1.28b)
WACC = 6.67% (E(1.15b)/V(1.80b) * Re(9.97%) + D(655.1m)/V(1.80b) * Rd(1.20%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.14% ; FCFE base≈227.8m ; Y1≈235.4m ; Y5≈266.8m
Fair Price DCF = 85.93 (DCF Value 3.40b / Shares Outstanding 39.5m; 5y FCF grow 3.42% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 60.14 | EPS CAGR: 8.19% | SUE: 1.28 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -37.51 | Revenue CAGR: -2.19% | SUE: 1.81 | # QB: 8
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.84 | Chg30d=-0.024 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.66 | Chg30d=-0.043 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+7.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.7%
Additional Sources for PRG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle