(PRG) PROG Holdings - Overview
Stock: Lease-To-Own, Second-Look Credit, Buy-Now-Pay-Later, Credit-Building Tool
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.82% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 |
| Alpha | 20.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.061 |
| Beta Downside | 0.984 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.38 |
Description: PRG PROG Holdings January 19, 2026
PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is a U.S.-based fintech holding company that offers lease-to-own and revolving-credit solutions through its two operating segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive Financial. The firm’s core products include in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own plans, “buy-now-pay-later” (BNPL) options split into four interest-free installments, and the Build credit-building platform.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show total revenue of approximately $1.1 billion, with Progressive Leasing contributing roughly 70 % of that amount. The company reported a net loss of about $30 million, reflecting higher provisioning for credit losses as delinquency rates rose to 6.2 %-still below the industry average of ~8 % for lease-to-own providers.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect PRG include the broader consumer-finance environment: a gradual rise in U.S. interest rates has tightened credit availability, which can boost demand for alternative financing like lease-to-own, while also increasing the cost of capital for the company’s own funding. Additionally, the BNPL market is projected to grow at a 12 % CAGR through 2027, but regulatory scrutiny is intensifying, potentially reshaping product pricing and disclosure requirements.
Historically, the firm rebranded from Aaron’s Holdings to PROG Holdings in December 2020, reflecting a strategic shift from brick-and-mortar retail to a technology-focused financing model.
For a deeper quantitative dive, check the ValueRay dashboard for PRG’s latest financial metrics and peer comparisons.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 146.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.18% < 20% (prev 36.29%; Δ -23.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 305.4m > Net Income 146.8m |
| Net Debt (-308.8m) to EBITDA (1.46b): -0.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.6m) vs 12m ago -6.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 54.47% > 18% (prev 0.34%; Δ 5414 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 120.6% > 50% (prev 162.7%; Δ -42.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.31 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.46b / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m) |
Altman Z'' 5.46
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 383.0m - Total Current Liabilities 134.6m) / Total Assets 1.61b |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 1.59b / Total Assets 1.61b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 175.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.56b) |
| D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 382.8m / Total Liabilities 864.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.46 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.41 (Receivables 74.2m/237.9m, Revenue 1.88b/2.46b) |
| GMI: 0.62 (GM 54.47% / 33.61%) |
| AQI: 2.72 (AQ_t 0.74 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 0.76 (Revenue 1.88b / 2.46b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 146.8m - CFO 305.4m) / TA 1.61b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PRG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +21.37%, over one month by +26.37%, over three months by +52.66% and over the past year by +41.11%.
Is PRG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PRG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 43.7 | 7.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 43.7 | 7.9% |
PRG Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 51.2821
P/S = 0.6635
P/B = 1.8757
Revenue TTM = 1.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 175.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.46b USD
Long Term Debt = 594.5m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 602.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = -308.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.89b USD (1.60b + Debt 602.7m - CCE 308.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.31 (Ebit TTM 175.0m / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m)
EV/FCF = 6.40x (Enterprise Value 1.89b / FCF TTM 295.6m)
FCF Yield = 15.62% (FCF TTM 295.6m / Enterprise Value 1.89b)
FCF Margin = 15.69% (FCF TTM 295.6m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Net Margin = 7.79% (Net Income TTM 146.8m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Gross Margin = 54.47% ((Revenue TTM 1.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 857.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 1.89b / Total Assets 1.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 7.12m / Debt 602.7m)
Taxrate = 37.97% (11.0m / 29.1m)
NOPAT = 108.6m (EBIT 175.0m * (1 - 37.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.84 (Total Current Assets 383.0m / Total Current Liabilities 134.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 602.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 746.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.21 (Net Debt -308.8m / EBITDA 1.46b)
Debt / FCF = -1.04 (Net Debt -308.8m / FCF TTM 295.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.40% (Net Income 146.8m / Total Assets 1.61b)
RoE = 21.17% (Net Income TTM 146.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.3m)
RoCE = 13.59% (EBIT 175.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.3m + L.T.Debt 594.5m))
RoIC = 8.55% (NOPAT 108.6m / Invested Capital 1.27b)
WACC = 7.33% (E(1.60b)/V(2.20b) * Re(9.82%) + D(602.7m)/V(2.20b) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 9.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.04% ; FCFF base≈227.8m ; Y1≈235.4m ; Y5≈266.1m
Fair Price DCF = 143.2 (EV 5.35b - Net Debt -308.8m = Equity 5.66b / Shares 39.5m; r=7.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.42% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 46.05 | EPS CAGR: 7.21% | SUE: 1.36 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -34.28 | Revenue CAGR: -4.94% | SUE: 1.81 | # QB: 8
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+0.151 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.26 | Chg30d=+0.640 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+21.5% | Growth Revenue=+28.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.05 | Chg30d=+0.166 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+18.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.0%