PRG Stock Analysis: PROG Holdings | NYSE
Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.218m USD | 12M Return: -4.5% | US74319R1014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.2M
EPS Trend: 41.9%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 80.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PROG Holdings, Inc. is a U.S.-based financial technology holding company headquartered in Draper, Utah, that operates through two main segments: Progressive Leasing, which provides lease-to-own solutions at the point of sale across in-store, app-based, and e-commerce channels, and Four, a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platform offering short-term, interest-free installment plans. The company also operates Purchasing Power, an employee-focused purchase program that serves consumers who may lack access to traditional credit.
The company was founded in 1955 and was formerly known as Aarons Holdings Company, Inc. before rebranding to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. It is listed on the NYSE under the ticker PRG and is classified within the GICS Consumer Finance sub-industry, a sector that encompasses non-bank lenders offering credit and alternative payment products to consumers.
PROGs business model focuses on serving credit-underserved consumers, a demographic that lease-to-own and BNPL providers typically target because these customers often face limited approval from traditional prime credit lenders. Both Progressive Leasing and Four operate within the broader alternative consumer finance segment, which has expanded alongside growth in e-commerce and rising consumer demand for flexible payment options.
- Subprime consumer spending drives Progressive Leasing revenue and lease write-offs
- Four BNPL segment scales against Affirm and Klarna competition
- CFPB scrutiny on lease-to-own may tighten underwriting and disclosure requirements
| Net Income: 146.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.79% < 20% (prev 35.51%; Δ -21.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 186.8m > Net Income 146.7m |
| Net Debt (809.1m) to EBITDA (1.79b): 0.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.8m) vs 12m ago 0.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.23% > 18% (prev 34.47%; Δ 2.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 144.1% > 50% (prev 173.1%; Δ -29.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.92 > 6 (EBIT TTM 232.5m / Interest Expense TTM 47.3m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 499.5m - Total Current Liabilities 151.5m) / Total Assets 2.05b |
| B: 0.81 (Retained Earnings 1.66b / Total Assets 2.05b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 232.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.75b) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 805.3m / Total Liabilities 1.24b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.32 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.90 (Receivables 414.3m/217.7m, Revenue 2.52b/2.52b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 34.47% / 37.23%) |
| AQI: 1.73 (AQ_t 0.48 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 2.52b / 2.52b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 146.7m - CFO 186.8m) / TA 2.05b) |
| Beneish M = -1.92 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.82 with a total of 617,720 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.45%, over one month by -20.22%, over three months by -33.82% and over the past year by -4.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.30 (which is 5.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
PROG Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PRG.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 52 | 74.4% |
P/E Trailing = 9.8013
P/E Forward = 5.711
P/S = 0.4659
P/B = 1.5961
P/EG = 0.9304
Revenue TTM = 2.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 232.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 887.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 894.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.26m
Net Debt = 809.1m USD (calculated: Debt 894.3m - CCE 85.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.03b USD (1.22b + Debt 894.3m - CCE 85.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.92 (Ebit TTM 232.5m / Interest Expense TTM 47.3m)
EV/FCF = 11.76x (Enterprise Value 2.03b / FCF TTM 172.4m)
FCF Yield = 8.51% (FCF TTM 172.4m / Enterprise Value 2.03b)
FCF Margin = 6.83% (FCF TTM 172.4m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Net Margin = 5.81% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Gross Margin = 37.23% ((Revenue TTM 2.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.16% (prev 34.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 2.03b / Total Assets 2.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.29% (Interest Expense 47.3m / Debt 894.3m)
Taxrate = 27.81% (48.8m / 175.4m)
NOPAT = 167.9m (EBIT 232.5m * (1 - 27.81%))
Current Ratio = 3.30 (Total Current Assets 499.5m / Total Current Liabilities 151.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.11 (Debt 894.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 805.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.45 (Net Debt 809.1m / EBITDA 1.79b)
Debt / FCF = 4.69 (Net Debt 809.1m / FCF TTM 172.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 757.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.37% (Net Income 146.7m / Total Assets 2.05b)
RoE = 19.36% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 757.4m)
RoCE = 14.14% (EBIT 232.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 757.4m + L.T.Debt 887.1m))
RoIC = 9.27% (NOPAT 167.9m / Invested Capital 1.81b)
WACC = 7.48% (E(1.22b)/V(2.11b) * Re(10.17%) + D(894.3m)/V(2.11b) * Rd(5.29%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.15 | Cagr: -3.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈191.1m ; Y1≈167.5m ; Y5≈135.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 34.24 (EV 2.17b - Net Debt 809.1m = Equity 1.36b / Shares 39.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 41.89 | EPS CAGR: 2.90% | SUE: 1.57 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 80.01 | Revenue CAGR: 1.85% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-1.42% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.91 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+40.0% | GrowthRev=+27.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.55 | Chg30d=-1.58% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=6, down=4)