PRG Stock Analysis: PROG Holdings | NYSE
Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.544m USD | 12M Return: 13.7% | US74319R1014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.3M
EPS Trend: 41.9%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 80.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is a U.S.-based financial technology holding company that provides alternative payment solutions to consumers through two main segments: Progressive Leasing, a lease-to-own (LTO) provider operating across in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale channels, and Four, a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platform offering short-term, interest-free instalment plans to consumers across all credit backgrounds. The company also operates Purchasing Power, which serves underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing. Headquartered in Draper, Utah, the company was founded in 1955 and previously operated as Aarons Holdings Company before adopting its current name in December 2020.
PROG operates within the consumer finance sector, where lease-to-own and BNPL models primarily serve subprime and underbanked consumers who may have limited access to traditional credit. These alternative lending categories have grown as fintech adoption has expanded point-of-sale financing options for retailers and customers.
- Progressive Leasing revenue growth drives quarterly results
- CFPB scrutiny of lease-to-own industry pressures margins
- Four BNPL segment faces competition from Affirm and Klarna
| Net Income: 146.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.79% < 20% (prev 35.51%; Δ -21.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 186.8m > Net Income 146.7m |
| Net Debt (809.1m) to EBITDA (989.6m): 0.82 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.8m) vs 12m ago 0.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.23% > 18% (prev 34.47%; Δ 2.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 144.1% > 50% (prev 173.1%; Δ -29.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.92 > 6 (EBIT TTM 232.5m / Interest Expense TTM 47.3m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 499.5m - Total Current Liabilities 151.5m) / Total Assets 2.05b |
| B: 0.81 (Retained Earnings 1.66b / Total Assets 2.05b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 232.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.75b) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 805.3m / Total Liabilities 1.24b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.32 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.90 (Receivables 414.3m/217.7m, Revenue 2.52b/2.52b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 34.47% / 37.23%) |
| AQI: 1.73 (AQ_t 0.48 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 2.52b / 2.52b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 146.7m - CFO 186.8m) / TA 2.05b) |
| Beneish M = -1.92 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of August 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 39.10 with a total of 418,074 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.85%, over one month by -12.98%, over three months by +5.43% and over the past year by +13.67%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 36.50 (which is 6.6% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
PROG Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PRG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 53.4 | 36.6% |
P/E Trailing = 12.5065
P/E Forward = 8.1633
P/S = 0.5906
P/B = 1.9175
P/EG = 0.9304
Revenue TTM = 2.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 232.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 989.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 887.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 894.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.26m
Net Debt = 809.1m USD (calculated: Debt 894.3m - CCE 85.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.35b USD (1.54b + Debt 894.3m - CCE 85.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.92 (Ebit TTM 232.5m / Interest Expense TTM 47.3m)
EV/FCF = 13.65x (Enterprise Value 2.35b / FCF TTM 172.4m)
FCF Yield = 7.33% (FCF TTM 172.4m / Enterprise Value 2.35b)
FCF Margin = 6.83% (FCF TTM 172.4m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Net Margin = 5.81% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Gross Margin = 37.23% ((Revenue TTM 2.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.16% (prev 34.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 2.35b / Total Assets 2.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.29% (Interest Expense 47.3m / Debt 894.3m)
Taxrate = 27.81% (48.8m / 175.4m)
NOPAT = 167.9m (EBIT 232.5m * (1 - 27.81%))
Current Ratio = 3.30 (Total Current Assets 499.5m / Total Current Liabilities 151.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.11 (Debt 894.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 805.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.82 (Net Debt 809.1m / EBITDA 989.6m)
Debt / FCF = 4.69 (Net Debt 809.1m / FCF TTM 172.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 757.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.37% (Net Income 146.7m / Total Assets 2.05b)
RoE = 19.36% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 757.4m)
RoCE = 14.14% (EBIT 232.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 757.4m + L.T.Debt 887.1m))
RoIC = 9.27% (NOPAT 167.9m / Invested Capital 1.81b)
WACC = 8.02% (E(1.54b)/V(2.44b) * Re(10.45%) + D(894.3m)/V(2.44b) * Rd(5.29%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.15 | Cagr: -3.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈191.1m ; Y1≈167.5m ; Y5≈135.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 34.24 (EV 2.17b - Net Debt 809.1m = Equity 1.36b / Shares 39.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 41.89 | EPS CAGR: 2.90% | SUE: 1.57 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 80.01 | Revenue CAGR: 1.85% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=+7.41% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.94 | Chg30d=+6.18% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+40.7% | GrowthRev=+27.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.64 | Chg30d=+5.72% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+14.2% | GrowthRev=+8.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +76% (up=17, down=1)