(PSX) Phillips 66 - Ratings and Ratios
Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Lubricants, Chemicals
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.47% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.53% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.74% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 123.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.69% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.22 |
| Alpha | -10.22 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.29 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.529 |
| Beta | 1.093 |
| Beta Downside | 1.487 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.37% |
| Mean DD | 15.27% |
| Median DD | 16.11% |
Description: PSX Phillips 66 September 26, 2025
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics firm headquartered in Houston, Texas, with operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other international markets. The company is organized into five reporting segments: Midstream (crude and product transport, storage, and natural-gas processing), Chemicals (ethylene, olefins, aromatics, styrenics, and specialty chemicals), Refining (conversion of crude into gasoline, distillates, and aviation fuel), Marketing & Specialties (M&S – wholesale of refined products and production of lubricants and base oils), and Renewable Fuels (processing and marketing of renewable diesel, jet fuel, and related regulatory credits). Its product portfolio is sold under the Phillips 66, Conoco, 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and various private-label brands.
Recent performance indicators highlight the segmental drivers of earnings: in 2023 the Refining segment posted an adjusted refining margin of roughly $12.5 per barrel, roughly 15 % above the 2022 average, reflecting higher crack spreads and a tight gasoline market; the Chemicals segment operates an ethylene capacity of ~2.1 million tonnes per year, with Q4 2023 ethylene pricing at $1,800 per tonne, supporting a 9 % YoY increase in segment EBIT; the Midstream segment moved ~3.5 million barrels per day of crude and refined products, while its natural-gas liquids (NGL) export volume grew 8 % YoY, benefitting from elevated Asian demand; the Renewable Fuels segment generated approximately 300 million gallons of renewable diesel, and its Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) were valued at $2.10 per gallon in Q4 2023, adding a modest but growing earnings contribution.
Key macro-economic and sector drivers that will influence PSX’s outlook include: (1) the U.S. gasoline demand cycle, which is sensitive to consumer mileage trends and the pace of EV adoption; (2) global ethylene demand, closely tied to petrochemical growth in Asia and the recovery of the construction sector; (3) regulatory pressure on low-carbon fuels, where the Inflation Reduction Act’s renewable fuel credit structure could expand the Renewable Fuels segment’s margin if PSX secures additional feedstock contracts; and (4) midstream fee-based revenue stability, which tends to be less volatile than commodity-linked refining margins but is exposed to pipeline utilization rates and freight pricing trends.
If you want a deeper, data-driven assessment of Phillips 66’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s segment-level cash-flow models can help you spot where the most material upside or downside risks may be hiding.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.50b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7.95b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 3.07% (prev 2.30%; Δ 0.78pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.41b > Net Income 1.50b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (19.91b) to EBITDA (6.21b) ratio: 3.21 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.23 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (405.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 3.67% (prev 4.24%; Δ -0.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 175.3% (prev 196.4%; Δ -21.12pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.03 (EBITDA TTM 6.21b / Interest Expense TTM 964.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.60
| (A) 0.05 = (Total Current Assets 22.02b - Total Current Liabilities 17.95b) / Total Assets 76.12b |
| (B) 0.40 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 30.82b / Total Assets 76.12b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 2.92b / Avg Total Assets 75.60b |
| (D) 0.64 = Book Value of Equity 30.66b / Total Liabilities 48.04b |
| Total Rating: 2.60 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 42.57
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.19% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.81 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.21 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.30)% |
| 7. RoE 5.52% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -47.93% |
| 9. EPS Trend -51.80% |
What is the price of PSX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.82%, over one month by +1.46%, over three months by +3.20% and over the past year by +4.16%.
Is PSX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PSX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 147.7 | 7.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 147.7 | 7.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 155.1 | 13.3% |
PSX Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 36.0
P/E Forward = 11.7925
P/S = 0.4079
P/B = 2.0017
P/EG = 0.4445
Beta = 0.916
Revenue TTM = 132.51b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.92b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.59b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 21.75b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.91b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 73.74b USD (53.83b + Debt 21.75b - CCE 1.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.03 (Ebit TTM 2.92b / Interest Expense TTM 964.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.94% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Enterprise Value 73.74b)
FCF Margin = 2.19% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Revenue TTM 132.51b)
Net Margin = 1.14% (Net Income TTM 1.50b / Revenue TTM 132.51b)
Gross Margin = 3.67% ((Revenue TTM 132.51b - Cost of Revenue TTM 127.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 4.83% (prev 5.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 73.74b / Total Assets 76.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.19% (Interest Expense 259.0m / Debt 21.75b)
Taxrate = 16.08% (32.0m / 199.0m)
NOPAT = 2.45b (EBIT 2.92b * (1 - 16.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 22.02b / Total Current Liabilities 17.95b)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 21.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 26.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.21 (Net Debt 19.91b / EBITDA 6.21b)
Debt / FCF = 6.86 (Net Debt 19.91b / FCF TTM 2.90b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 27.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.98% (Net Income 1.50b / Total Assets 76.12b)
RoE = 5.52% (Net Income TTM 1.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 27.27b)
RoCE = 6.28% (EBIT 2.92b / Capital Employed (Equity 27.27b + L.T.Debt 19.17b))
RoIC = 5.14% (NOPAT 2.45b / Invested Capital 47.66b)
WACC = 7.44% (E(53.83b)/V(75.58b) * Re(10.04%) + D(21.75b)/V(75.58b) * Rd(1.19%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 10.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.08% ; FCFE base≈3.02b ; Y1≈2.34b ; Y5≈1.49b
Fair Price DCF = 50.61 (DCF Value 20.39b / Shares Outstanding 402.9m; 5y FCF grow -26.88% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -51.80 | EPS CAGR: -4.03% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -47.93 | Revenue CAGR: 1.94% | SUE: 1.33 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=+0.589 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=6.30 | Chg30d=+0.785 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+2.4% | Growth Revenue=-9.6%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.74 | Chg30d=+0.970 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+86.4% | Growth Revenue=-0.5%
Additional Sources for PSX Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle