RDN Stock Analysis: Radian | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.730m USD | 12M Return: 7.8% | US7502361014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 68.4M
EPS Trend: 90.6%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 65.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) is a U.S. provider of mortgage insurance, operating through subsidiaries to aggregate, manage, and distribute mortgage credit risk for lenders and mortgage credit investors. The company offers private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans, along with specialty insurance and reinsurance lines, serving mortgage originators including mortgage banks, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks.
Founded in 1977 and headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, the company was originally known as CMAC Investment Corp. before adopting its current name in June 1999. As a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, Radian operates within the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry, where private mortgage insurers play a counter-cyclical role, typically writing policies that protect lenders against borrower default while benefiting from rising mortgage origination volumes during periods of increased home buying and refinancing activity.
- Mortgage origination volume declines as rates remain elevated
- Mortgage insurance claims rise with home price corrections
- Capital returns accelerate through buybacks and dividends
| Net Income: 536.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 27.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -202.3% < 20% (prev 421.7%; Δ -623.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 1.68b > Net Income 536.5m |
| Net Debt (1.15b) to EBITDA (799.3m): 1.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (136.3m) vs 12m ago -1.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.38% > 18% (prev 92.36%; Δ -12.98% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 16.34% > 50% (prev 13.28%; Δ 3.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 784.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m) |
| A: -0.31 (Total Current Assets 119.0m - Total Current Liabilities 3.46b) / Total Assets 10.7b |
| B: 0.50 (Retained Earnings 5.30b / Total Assets 10.7b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 784.2m / Avg Total Assets 10.1b) |
| D: 0.82 (Book Value of Equity 4.81b / Total Liabilities 5.85b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.95 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.55 (Receivables 812.2m/403.9m, Revenue 1.65b/1.27b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 92.36% / 79.38%) |
| AQI: 3.96 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.30 (Revenue 1.65b / 1.27b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 536.5m - CFO 1.68b) / TA 10.7b) |
| Beneish M = -0.47 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.96 with a total of 1,606,173 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.88%, over one month by +5.94%, over three months by -10.35% and over the past year by +7.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.00 (which is 5.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Radian has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RDN.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.6 | 24.6% |
P/E Trailing = 8.8272
P/E Forward = 6.502
P/S = 2.8673
P/B = 0.9836
P/EG = 0.7588
Revenue TTM = 1.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 784.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 799.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 621.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 535.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.27b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 33.0m
Net Debt = 1.15b USD (calculated: Debt 1.27b - CCE 119.0m)
Enterprise Value = 5.88b USD (4.73b + Debt 1.27b - CCE 119.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.21 (Ebit TTM 784.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m)
EV/FCF = 3.51x (Enterprise Value 5.88b / FCF TTM 1.67b)
FCF Yield = 28.51% (FCF TTM 1.67b / Enterprise Value 5.88b)
FCF Margin = 101.3% (FCF TTM 1.67b / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
Net Margin = 32.45% (Net Income TTM 536.5m / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
Gross Margin = 79.38% ((Revenue TTM 1.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 340.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.09% (prev 76.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.55 (Enterprise Value 5.88b / Total Assets 10.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.07% (Interest Expense 76.8m / Debt 1.27b)
Taxrate = 22.73% (164.6m / 724.1m)
NOPAT = 605.9m (EBIT 784.2m * (1 - 22.73%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 119.0m / Total Current Liabilities 3.46b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 1.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.43 (Net Debt 1.15b / EBITDA 799.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.68 (Net Debt 1.15b / FCF TTM 1.67b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.30% (Net Income 536.5m / Total Assets 10.7b)
RoE = 11.26% (Net Income TTM 536.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.76b)
RoCE = 14.56% (EBIT 784.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.76b + L.T.Debt 621.9m))
RoIC = 7.92% (NOPAT 605.9m / Invested Capital 7.65b)
WACC = 6.53% (E(4.73b)/V(5.99b) * Re(7.02%) + D(1.27b)/V(5.99b) * Rd(6.07%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.10 | Cagr: -5.82%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.67b ; Y1≈1.68b ; Y5≈1.78b
[DCF] Fair Price = 200.8 (EV 27.7b - Net Debt 1.15b = Equity 26.6b / Shares 132.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.63 | EPS CAGR: 5.14% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 65.36 | Revenue CAGR: 6.14% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.21 | Chg30d=-1.83% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.87 | Chg30d=-0.92% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=+78.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.23 | Chg30d=-0.48% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.3% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)