RDN Stock Analysis: Radian | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.920m USD | 12M Return: 7.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.9M
EPS Trend: 62.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 68.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) is a U.S. financial services company that provides private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans, aggregating and distributing mortgage credit risk on behalf of mortgage lenders and investors. The company also offers specialty insurance and reinsurance products, serving a broad range of mortgage originators including mortgage banks, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks.
Private mortgage insurance generally protects lenders from losses when a borrower defaults, and is typically required for residential loans where the borrowers down payment is less than 20%. Founded in 1977 and headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, Radian operates in the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry and has been listed on the NYSE since its 1992 IPO.
- Mortgage origination volumes decline as home sales slow
- Home price softness pressures mortgage insurance loss reserves
- Capital return accelerates with share buyback expansion
| Net Income: 562.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.63 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -57.11% < 20% (prev 523.2%; Δ -580.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 337.1m > Net Income 562.3m |
| Net Debt (1.09b) to EBITDA (784.3m): 1.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (138.5m) vs 12m ago -6.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.56% > 18% (prev 93.43%; Δ -5.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.65% > 50% (prev 14.55%; Δ 0.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 748.4m / Interest Expense TTM 80.3m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 753.9m - Total Current Liabilities 1.55b) / Total Assets 10.3b |
| B: 0.51 (Retained Earnings 5.22b / Total Assets 10.3b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 748.4m / Avg Total Assets 9.53b) |
| D: 0.88 (Book Value of Equity 4.81b / Total Liabilities 5.49b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.59 = A |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 665.9m/168.0m, Revenue 1.40b/1.28b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 93.43% / 87.56%) |
| AQI: 4.22 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.40b / 1.28b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 562.3m - CFO 337.1m) / TA 10.3b) |
| Beneish M = 0.66 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.67 with a total of 567,265 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.78%, over one month by +12.33%, over three months by +14.74% and over the past year by +7.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.30 (which is 6.3% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
Radian has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RDN.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.7 | 15.9% |
P/E Trailing = 8.6247
P/E Forward = 7.0126
P/S = 3.5901
P/B = 1.023
P/EG = 0.7588
Revenue TTM = 1.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 748.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 784.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.08b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 494.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.18b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 33.4m
Net Debt = 1.09b USD (calculated: Debt 1.18b - CCE 88.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.01b USD (4.92b + Debt 1.18b - CCE 88.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.32 (Ebit TTM 748.4m / Interest Expense TTM 80.3m)
EV/FCF = 18.05x (Enterprise Value 6.01b / FCF TTM 333.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.54% (FCF TTM 333.2m / Enterprise Value 6.01b)
FCF Margin = 23.87% (FCF TTM 333.2m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Net Margin = 40.28% (Net Income TTM 562.3m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Gross Margin = 87.56% ((Revenue TTM 1.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 173.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.86% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.58 (Enterprise Value 6.01b / Total Assets 10.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.80% (Interest Expense 80.3m / Debt 1.18b)
Taxrate = 22.09% (165.3m / 748.4m)
NOPAT = 583.1m (EBIT 748.4m * (1 - 22.09%))
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 753.9m / Total Current Liabilities 1.55b)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 1.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.39 (Net Debt 1.09b / EBITDA 784.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.28 (Net Debt 1.09b / FCF TTM 333.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.90% (Net Income 562.3m / Total Assets 10.3b)
RoE = 12.01% (Net Income TTM 562.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.68b)
RoCE = 12.99% (EBIT 748.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.68b + L.T.Debt 1.08b))
RoIC = 6.36% (NOPAT 583.1m / Invested Capital 9.17b)
WACC = 7.36% (E(4.92b)/V(6.10b) * Re(7.86%) + D(1.18b)/V(6.10b) * Rd(6.80%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -82.22 | Cagr: -5.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈333.2m ; Y1≈334.6m ; Y5≈354.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 33.23 (EV 5.51b - Net Debt 1.09b = Equity 4.42b / Shares 133.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 62.12 | EPS CAGR: 2.68% | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 68.52 | Revenue CAGR: 2.75% | SUE: 1.51 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.31 | Chg30d=-0.22% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+26.3% | GrowthRev=+48.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.51 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+3.9% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50%