RGR Stock Analysis: Sturm Ruger | NYSE
Aerospace & Defense | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 600m USD | 12M Return: 8.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.07M
EPS Trend: -95.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -28.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. is a U.S.-based firearms manufacturer founded in 1949 and headquartered in Southport, Connecticut. Operating in two segments-Firearms and Castings-the company designs, manufactures, and sells a broad range of firearms under the Ruger brand, including rifles, pistols, revolvers, and shotguns, as well as lever-action rifles under the Marlin name. Beyond firearms, Ruger produces steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. The company distributes its firearm products to the commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, while also exporting to foreign law enforcement agencies and governments, and selling castings directly or via manufacturers representatives.
The firearms industry experiences demand fluctuations tied to consumer sentiment, regulatory developments, and election cycles, often resulting in higher sales volumes during periods of political uncertainty. Rugers diversified revenue streams-including its castings and MIM components business-help offset the cyclical nature of the commercial firearms market and provide entry into non-sporting industrial end markets such as aerospace and medical equipment.
- Commercial firearms demand softens as distributor inventory normalizes
- Marlin lever-action rifle ramp drives product mix and pricing gains
- Federal and state firearms regulation shifts impact consumer purchasing sentiment
- Quarterly dividend and special distributions reward shareholders amid margin pressure
| Net Income: -12.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.62% < 20% (prev 37.16%; Δ -8.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 61.9m > Net Income -12.0m |
| Net Debt (-102.5m) to EBITDA (6.43m): -15.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.2m) vs 12m ago -3.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.38% > 18% (prev 21.50%; Δ -7.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 151.5% > 50% (prev 141.0%; Δ 10.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -168.8 > 6 (EBIT TTM -16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100k) |
| A: 0.45 (Total Current Assets 221.1m - Total Current Liabilities 63.2m) / Total Assets 349.1m |
| B: 1.21 (Retained Earnings 420.9m / Total Assets 349.1m) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -16.9m / Avg Total Assets 364.1m) |
| D: 4.30 (Book Value of Equity 283.3m / Total Liabilities 65.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 11.11 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 72.9m/67.5m, Revenue 551.7m/534.6m) |
| GMI: 1.49 (GM 21.50% / 14.38%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 551.7m / 534.6m) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -12.0m - CFO 61.9m) / TA 349.1m) |
| Beneish M = -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.56 with a total of 116,619 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.50%, over one month by -0.82%, over three months by -6.01% and over the past year by +8.70%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.80 (which is 7.2% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Sturm Ruger has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RGR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 47 | 21.9% |
P/E Forward = 8.6133
P/S = 1.0881
P/B = 2.1173
Revenue TTM = 551.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -16.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.43m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.06m USD (estimated: total debt 1.65m - short term 595k)
Short Term Debt = 595k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.71m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.06m
Net Debt = -102.5m USD (calculated: Debt 2.71m - CCE 105.2m)
Enterprise Value = 497.8m USD (600.3m + Debt 2.71m - CCE 105.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -168.8 (Ebit TTM -16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100k)
EV/FCF = 11.74x (Enterprise Value 497.8m / FCF TTM 42.4m)
FCF Yield = 8.52% (FCF TTM 42.4m / Enterprise Value 497.8m)
FCF Margin = 7.69% (FCF TTM 42.4m / Revenue TTM 551.7m)
Net Margin = -2.18% (Net Income TTM -12.0m / Revenue TTM 551.7m)
Gross Margin = 14.38% ((Revenue TTM 551.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 472.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.86% (prev 17.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.43 (Enterprise Value 497.8m / Total Assets 349.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.69% (Interest Expense 100k / Debt 2.71m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -13.3m (EBIT -16.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.50 (Total Current Assets 221.1m / Total Current Liabilities 63.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 2.71m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 283.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -15.94 (Net Debt -102.5m / EBITDA 6.43m)
Debt / FCF = -2.42 (Net Debt -102.5m / FCF TTM 42.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 284.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.30% (Net Income -12.0m / Total Assets 349.1m)
RoE = -4.24% (Net Income TTM -12.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 284.0m)
RoCE = -5.92% (EBIT -16.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 284.0m + L.T.Debt 1.06m))
RoIC = -5.15% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -13.3m / Invested Capital 258.9m)
WACC = 7.48% (E(600.3m)/V(603.0m) * Re(7.50%) + D(2.71m)/V(603.0m) * Rd(3.69%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -3.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.47% ; FCFF base≈41.1m ; Y1≈44.1m ; Y5≈53.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 57.79 (EV 818.9m - Net Debt -102.5m = Equity 921.4m / Shares 15.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 8.31% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -94.98 | EPS CAGR: -32.42% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -28.27 | Revenue CAGR: -0.98% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-9.68% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-17.02% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-10.29% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+102.4% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+16.5% | GrowthRev=+2.6%