RITM Stock Analysis: Rithm Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.237m USD | 12M Return: -10.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 46.1M
EPS Trend: 82.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM) is a U.S.-based asset manager operating across real estate, credit, and financial services through three segments: Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio. Its investment portfolio includes single-family rental (SFR) properties, title and property preservation businesses, residential mortgage loans, real estate securities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), consumer loans, excess mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), and servicer advance investments.
The company originates both government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)/government-guaranteed loans and non-conforming loans, and operates a residential transitional lending business. Structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), Rithm avoids federal corporate income tax by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. It was originally incorporated in 2011 as New Residential Investment Corp. and rebranded as Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022.
Within the Financials sector and the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry, Rithms model combines balance-sheet investing in mortgage-related and credit assets with third-party asset management activities. Mortgage servicing rights and servicer advance investments are common vehicles in this segment because they generate recurring fee income tied to the life of the underlying loans, complementing the more cyclical origination business.
- MSR portfolio valuations swing with mortgage rate volatility
- Mortgage origination volume pressured by elevated rates
- Asset management fees grow with third-party capital raises
| Net Income: 727.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 57.28% < 20% (prev -52.02%; Δ 109.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -2.46b > Net Income 727.7m |
| Net Debt (33.3b) to EBITDA (1.91b): 17.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (565.9m) vs 12m ago 6.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 86.22% > 18% (prev 93.90%; Δ -7.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.37% > 50% (prev 11.61%; Δ -0.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.02 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 1.72b) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 8.69b - Total Current Liabilities 5.47b) / Total Assets 53.4b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -100.0m / Total Assets 53.4b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 49.4b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 8.61b / Total Liabilities 43.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.83 = B |
| DSRI: 0.20 (Receivables 879.5m/4.04b, Revenue 5.61b/5.26b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 93.90% / 86.22%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 5.61b / 5.26b) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 727.7m - CFO -2.46b) / TA 53.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.63 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.39 with a total of 4,930,438 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.95%, over one month by +3.19%, over three months by +1.69% and over the past year by -10.68%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.10 (which is 3.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Rithm Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RITM.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.4 | 42.2% |
P/E Trailing = 8.6055
P/E Forward = 4.2644
P/S = 1.235
P/B = 0.7506
Revenue TTM = 5.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.91b USD
Long Term Debt = 35.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.43b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 169.7m
Net Debt = 33.3b USD (calculated: Debt 39.9b - CCE 6.69b)
Enterprise Value = 38.5b USD (5.24b + Debt 39.9b - CCE 6.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.02 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 1.72b)
EV/FCF = -15.65x (Enterprise Value 38.5b / FCF TTM -2.46b)
FCF Yield = -6.39% (FCF TTM -2.46b / Enterprise Value 38.5b)
FCF Margin = -43.83% (FCF TTM -2.46b / Revenue TTM 5.61b)
Net Margin = 12.97% (Net Income TTM 727.7m / Revenue TTM 5.61b)
Gross Margin = 86.22% ((Revenue TTM 5.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 773.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.80% (prev 90.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 38.5b / Total Assets 53.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.32% (Interest Expense 1.72b / Debt 39.9b)
Taxrate = 17.37% (157.0m / 903.8m)
NOPAT = 1.45b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 17.37%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 8.69b / Total Current Liabilities 5.47b)
Debt / Equity = 4.64 (Debt 39.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = 17.37 (Net Debt 33.3b / EBITDA 1.91b)
Debt / FCF = -13.52 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 33.3b / FCF TTM -2.46b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.47% (Net Income 727.7m / Total Assets 53.4b)
RoE = 8.69% (Net Income TTM 727.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 8.37b)
RoCE = 4.03% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.37b + L.T.Debt 35.2b))
RoIC = 2.79% (NOPAT 1.45b / Invested Capital 52.0b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(5.24b)/V(45.2b) * Re(8.81%) + D(39.9b)/V(45.2b) * Rd(4.32%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 7.27%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -2.46b)
EPS Correlation: 82.48 | EPS CAGR: 9.49% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.22 | Revenue CAGR: 27.13% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=-2.37% | Revisions=-11% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.26 | Chg30d=-0.74% | Revisions=-9% | GrowthEPS=-3.8% | GrowthRev=+29.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.35 | Chg30d=-0.87% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+4.1% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40%