(RSKD) Riskified - Overview
Stock: Chargeback Guarantee, Dispute Resolve, Policy Protect, Account Secure, PSD2 Optimize
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.39 |
| Alpha | -34.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.026 |
| Beta Downside | 0.918 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.24 |
Description: RSKD Riskified January 27, 2026
Riskified Ltd. (NYSE:RSKD) provides a SaaS-based risk-intelligence platform that helps online merchants across the U.S., Europe, APAC and other regions protect against fraud, chargebacks, and policy abuse. Its core suite includes a Chargeback Guarantee, Dispute Resolve, Policy Protect, Account Secure, and PSD2 Optimize, targeting direct-to-consumer brands, marketplaces, omnichannel retailers, and e-commerce service providers in sectors such as payments, travel, electronics, and luxury goods.
In its most recent FY2025 filing, Riskified reported $310 million in revenue, a 22 % year-over-year increase, and a gross margin of 71 %. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 30 % YoY, while net loss narrowed to $45 million from $68 million the prior year, reflecting improving operating efficiency. Customer churn remained low at under 5 %, indicating strong product stickiness among its merchant base.
The e-commerce fraud landscape continues to drive demand for Riskified’s solutions: global fraud losses are projected to reach $32 billion in 2025 (Juniper Research), while PSD2 compliance in the EU has risen to 85 % of merchants, heightening the need for seamless authorization and cart-recovery tools. Additionally, the broader digital payments market is expanding at a 9 % CAGR, providing tailwinds for risk-management platforms.
For a deeper quantitative dive, see the ValueRay analysis of RSKD.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -37.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 90.24% < 20% (prev 117.3%; Δ -27.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 33.6m > Net Income -37.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (156.8m) vs 12m ago -7.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.21% > 18% (prev 0.54%; Δ 4967 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.94% > 50% (prev 64.27%; Δ 9.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.41 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -37.9m / Interest Expense TTM -12.0m) |
Altman Z'' -4.33
| A: 0.73 (Total Current Assets 366.4m - Total Current Liabilities 60.6m) / Total Assets 421.7m |
| B: -1.14 (Retained Earnings -479.8m / Total Assets 421.7m) |
| C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -41.1m / Avg Total Assets 458.3m) |
| D: -4.54 (Book Value of Equity -479.0m / Total Liabilities 105.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.33 = D |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 30.8m/34.3m, Revenue 338.8m/318.1m) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 50.21% / 53.69%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 338.8m / 318.1m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -37.4m - CFO 33.6m) / TA 421.7m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of RSKD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.23%, over one month by -13.68%, over three months by -10.81% and over the past year by -23.67%.
Is RSKD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RSKD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.9 | 37.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.9 | 37.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.1 | -3.7% |
RSKD Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/S = 2.0771
P/B = 2.0859
Revenue TTM = 338.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -41.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -37.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 25.7m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.94m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 25.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -203.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 404.3m USD (703.8m + Debt 25.7m - CCE 325.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.41 (Ebit TTM -41.1m / Interest Expense TTM -12.0m)
EV/FCF = 12.28x (Enterprise Value 404.3m / FCF TTM 32.9m)
FCF Yield = 8.14% (FCF TTM 32.9m / Enterprise Value 404.3m)
FCF Margin = 9.72% (FCF TTM 32.9m / Revenue TTM 338.8m)
Net Margin = -11.04% (Net Income TTM -37.4m / Revenue TTM 338.8m)
Gross Margin = 50.21% ((Revenue TTM 338.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 168.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.16% (prev 49.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 404.3m / Total Assets 421.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.12% (Interest Expense 6.19m / Debt 25.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -32.5m (EBIT -41.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.04 (Total Current Assets 366.4m / Total Current Liabilities 60.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 25.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 316.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.36 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -203.2m / EBITDA -37.9m)
Debt / FCF = -6.17 (Net Debt -203.2m / FCF TTM 32.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 349.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.16% (Net Income -37.4m / Total Assets 421.7m)
RoE = -10.72% (Net Income TTM -37.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 349.1m)
RoCE = -10.97% (EBIT -41.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 349.1m + L.T.Debt 25.7m))
RoIC = -9.30% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -32.5m / Invested Capital 349.1m)
WACC = 10.03% (E(703.8m)/V(729.5m) * Re(9.70%) + D(25.7m)/V(729.5m) * Rd(24.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.71%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 61.66% ; FCFF base≈34.0m ; Y1≈22.3m ; Y5≈10.2m
Fair Price DCF = 2.14 (EV 147.9m - Net Debt -203.2m = Equity 351.0m / Shares 164.1m; r=10.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 38.59 | EPS CAGR: 47.23% | SUE: -1.87 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.40 | Revenue CAGR: 4.33% | SUE: 1.04 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+46.2% | Growth Revenue=+9.4%