RSKD Stock Analysis: Riskified | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 712m USD | 12M Return: 1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.44M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 4.9 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Riskified Ltd. (NYSE: RSKD) is an e-commerce risk intelligence platform provider that helps online merchants manage fraud and related risks across global markets, including the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. Its product suite includes Chargeback Guarantee (underwriting approved orders), Dispute Resolve for chargeback representation, Policy Protect for refund/returns abuse prevention, Account Secure for login protection, and PSD2 optimization to lift conversion while complying with authentication rules. The company serves a broad customer base spanning direct-to-consumer brands, online-only and omnichannel retailers, marketplaces, and e-commerce service providers across verticals such as payments, money transfer, travel, electronics, home, and fashion/luxury.
Founded in 2012 and headquartered in New York, Riskified went public on the NYSE on July 29, 2021, and is classified within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector. Its business model centers on a guaranteed-approval approach, where the platform assumes chargeback liability for orders it approves, aligning its revenue with the merchants gross merchandise value processed rather than with traditional per-transaction software licensing.
- E-commerce growth drives chargeback guarantee revenue expansion
- Approval rate improvements expand gross profit margins
- Signifyd competition pressures pricing in fashion vertical
| Net Income: -18.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.61 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 75.45% < 20% (prev 102.6%; Δ -27.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 40.6m > Net Income -18.1m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 5.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (147.4m) vs 12m ago -8.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.03% > 18% (prev 50.76%; Δ 1.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 83.99% > 50% (prev 72.54%; Δ 11.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.71 (Total Current Assets 322.6m - Total Current Liabilities 58.1m) / Total Assets 374.9m |
| B: -1.28 (Retained Earnings -478.5m / Total Assets 374.9m) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -12.6m / Avg Total Assets 417.3m) |
| D: 2.65 (Book Value of Equity 272.2m / Total Liabilities 102.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.05 = A |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 34.1m/32.1m, Revenue 350.5m/333.5m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 50.76% / 52.03%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 350.5m / 333.5m) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -18.1m - CFO 40.6m) / TA 374.9m) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.04 with a total of 1,243,714 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.44%, over one month by +0.00%, over three months by +28.57% and over the past year by +1.00%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.80 (which is 4.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Riskified has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RSKD.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.6 | 10.1% |
P/E Forward = 99.0099
P/S = 2.03
P/B = 2.582
Revenue TTM = 350.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -12.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -3.46m USD
Long Term Debt = 17.8m USD (estimated: total debt 23.9m - short term 6.11m)
Short Term Debt = 6.11m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 23.9m already included)
Net Debt = -252.5m USD (calculated: Debt 23.9m - CCE 276.3m)
Enterprise Value = 459.1m USD (711.5m + Debt 23.9m - CCE 276.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -12.6m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 11.54x (Enterprise Value 459.1m / FCF TTM 39.8m)
FCF Yield = 8.67% (FCF TTM 39.8m / Enterprise Value 459.1m)
FCF Margin = 11.35% (FCF TTM 39.8m / Revenue TTM 350.5m)
Net Margin = -5.17% (Net Income TTM -18.1m / Revenue TTM 350.5m)
Gross Margin = 52.03% ((Revenue TTM 350.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 168.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.34% (prev 56.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.22 (Enterprise Value 459.1m / Total Assets 374.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 23.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -9.98m (EBIT -12.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.55 (Total Current Assets 322.6m / Total Current Liabilities 58.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 23.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 272.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 73.07 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -252.5m / EBITDA -3.46m)
Debt / FCF = -6.35 (Net Debt -252.5m / FCF TTM 39.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 305.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.34% (Net Income -18.1m / Total Assets 374.9m)
RoE = -5.93% (Net Income TTM -18.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 305.4m)
RoCE = -3.91% (EBIT -12.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 305.4m + L.T.Debt 17.8m))
RoIC = -3.27% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -9.98m / Invested Capital 305.3m)
WACC = 9.33% (E(711.5m)/V(735.4m) * Re(9.64%) + D(23.9m)/V(735.4m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -8.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.87% ; FCFF base≈36.8m ; Y1≈42.1m ; Y5≈62.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.39 (EV 796.2m - Net Debt -252.5m = Equity 1.05b / Shares 100.9m; r=9.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.01 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.08 | Revenue CAGR: 7.85% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-33% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+2.59% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+19.0% | GrowthRev=+10.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+5.20% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+52.9% | GrowthRev=+10.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%