SAFE Stock Analysis: Safehold | NYSE
REIT - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 828m USD | 12M Return: -21.9% | US78646V1070 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.23M
EPS Trend: 92.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 86.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is a real estate company that pioneered the modern ground lease industry in 2017, offering building owners a way to monetize their underlying land while retaining ownership of the structures above it. The company focuses on ground leases across a diversified range of property types, including multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science, and mixed-use assets.
Structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), Safehold seeks to generate recurring lease income and long-term capital appreciation for shareholders. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in New York. Ground lease REITs represent a specialized subsector within Real Estate, operating on long-duration lease contracts that typically include periodic rent escalations tied to inflation or fixed percentage increases.
- Interest rate moves widen cap rate spreads on new ground leases
- New ground lease originations drive portfolio rental income growth
- Common stock issuance dilutes shareholders to fund portfolio expansion
| Net Income: 116.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.26 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.47k% < 20% (prev 584.5%; Δ 889.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 36.9m > Net Income 116.2m |
| Net Debt (4.64b) to EBITDA (338.8m): 13.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 36.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (71.6m) vs 12m ago -0.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.32% > 18% (prev 98.89%; Δ -4.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.67% > 50% (prev 5.30%; Δ 0.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 329.7m / Interest Expense TTM 213.4m) |
| A: 0.81 (Total Current Assets 6.27b - Total Current Liabilities 171.6m) / Total Assets 7.52b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 199.3m / Total Assets 7.52b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 329.7m / Avg Total Assets 7.29b) |
| D: 0.50 (Book Value of Equity 2.44b / Total Liabilities 4.89b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.23 = AAA |
| DSRI: 2.40 (Receivables 6.06b/2.29b, Revenue 413.4m/374.1m) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 98.89% / 94.32%) |
| AQI: 0.11 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.67) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 413.4m / 374.1m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 116.2m - CFO 36.9m) / TA 7.52b) |
| Beneish M = -2.28 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.55 with a total of 709,613 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.55%, over one month by -14.93%, over three months by -29.42% and over the past year by -21.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.00 (which is 4.8% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Safehold has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.27. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SAFE.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 17.6 | 52.4% |
P/E Trailing = 7.2609
P/E Forward = 8.1169
P/S = 1.8969
P/B = 0.3748
P/EG = 0.65
Revenue TTM = 413.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 329.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 338.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 532k USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 4.66b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 5.54m
Net Debt = 4.64b USD (calculated: Debt 4.66b - CCE 15.9m)
Enterprise Value = 5.47b USD (827.8m + Debt 4.66b - CCE 15.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.54 (Ebit TTM 329.7m / Interest Expense TTM 213.4m)
EV/FCF = 148.1x (Enterprise Value 5.47b / FCF TTM 36.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.68% (FCF TTM 36.9m / Enterprise Value 5.47b)
FCF Margin = 8.94% (FCF TTM 36.9m / Revenue TTM 413.4m)
Net Margin = 28.10% (Net Income TTM 116.2m / Revenue TTM 413.4m)
Gross Margin = 94.32% ((Revenue TTM 413.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.18% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 5.47b / Total Assets 7.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.58% (Interest Expense 213.4m / Debt 4.66b)
Taxrate = 2.72% (3.27m / 120.1m)
NOPAT = 320.7m (EBIT 329.7m * (1 - 2.72%))
Current Ratio = 36.51 (Total Current Assets 6.27b / Total Current Liabilities 171.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.91 (Debt 4.66b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.44b)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.71 (Net Debt 4.64b / EBITDA 338.8m)
Debt / FCF = 125.7 (Net Debt 4.64b / FCF TTM 36.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.59% (Net Income 116.2m / Total Assets 7.52b)
RoE = 4.81% (Net Income TTM 116.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.42b)
RoCE = 4.73% (EBIT 329.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.42b + L.T.Debt 4.55b))
RoIC = 4.37% (NOPAT 320.7m / Invested Capital 7.33b)
WACC = 4.75% (E(827.8m)/V(5.49b) * Re(6.43%) + D(4.66b)/V(5.49b) * Rd(4.58%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 6.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 77.23 | Cagr: 0.21%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈43.4m ; Y1≈38.1m ; Y5≈30.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 493.5m - Net Debt 4.64b = -4.15b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 92.52 | EPS CAGR: 4.55% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.83 | Revenue CAGR: 5.93% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+1.08% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=-0.53% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-1.8% | GrowthRev=+17.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.67 | Chg30d=-1.43% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+3.4% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)