SHAK Stock Analysis: Shake Shack | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.416m USD | 12M Return: -60% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 106M
EPS Trend: 85.7%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) is a restaurant company that owns, operates, and licenses its Shack locations in the United States and select international markets. Its menu centers on burgers, chicken, hot dogs, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer, and wine. The company is headquartered in New York, New York, and was founded in 2001 before going public in January 2015.
The company operates within the fast-casual restaurant segment of the consumer discretionary sector, a category positioned between traditional quick-service chains and full-service dining. Its hybrid model, combining company-operated restaurants with licensed international locations, is a common structure used by U.S.-based restaurant brands to support overseas growth while maintaining direct control over domestic operations and brand standards.
- Same-store sales decelerate amid weaker discretionary spending
- Beef and labor inflation pressure restaurant-level margins
- New licensed Shacks expand international footprint and royalty revenue
| Net Income: 41.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.81% < 20% (prev 13.56%; Δ -2.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 221.2m > Net Income 41.2m |
| Net Debt (1.31b) to EBITDA (181.4m): 7.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.69 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.3m) vs 12m ago -3.76% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.15% > 18% (prev 46.25%; Δ -27.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 81.82% > 50% (prev 74.27%; Δ 7.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 72.3m / Interest Expense TTM 5.37m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 393.9m - Total Current Liabilities 232.6m) / Total Assets 1.92b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 72.4m / Total Assets 1.92b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 72.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.82b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 525.9m / Total Liabilities 1.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.35 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.23 (Receivables 47.8m/33.5m, Revenue 1.49b/1.28b) |
| GMI: 2.41 (GM 46.25% / 19.15%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.49b / 1.28b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 41.2m - CFO 221.2m) / TA 1.92b) |
| Beneish M = -1.55 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 56.32 with a total of 2,209,903 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.83%, over one month by +4.72%, over three months by -42.27% and over the past year by -59.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 50.10 (which is 11% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Shake Shack has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SHAK.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 83.1 | 47.6% |
P/E Trailing = 57.6224
P/E Forward = 50.7614
P/S = 1.6201
P/B = 4.3572
P/EG = 2.55
Revenue TTM = 1.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 72.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 181.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 248.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 71.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 689.4m
Net Debt = 1.31b USD (calculated: Debt 1.63b - CCE 313.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.73b USD (2.42b + Debt 1.63b - CCE 313.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.45 (Ebit TTM 72.3m / Interest Expense TTM 5.37m)
EV/FCF = 99.52x (Enterprise Value 3.73b / FCF TTM 37.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.00% (FCF TTM 37.5m / Enterprise Value 3.73b)
FCF Margin = 2.51% (FCF TTM 37.5m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Net Margin = 2.76% (Net Income TTM 41.2m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Gross Margin = 19.15% ((Revenue TTM 1.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.44% (prev -58.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.94 (Enterprise Value 3.73b / Total Assets 1.92b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.33% (Interest Expense 5.37m / Debt 1.63b)
Taxrate = 32.91% (22.0m / 66.9m)
NOPAT = 48.5m (EBIT 72.3m * (1 - 32.91%))
Current Ratio = 1.69 (Total Current Assets 393.9m / Total Current Liabilities 232.6m)
Debt / Equity = 3.09 (Debt 1.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 525.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.24 (Net Debt 1.31b / EBITDA 181.4m)
Debt / FCF = 35.05 (Net Debt 1.31b / FCF TTM 37.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 513.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.26% (Net Income 41.2m / Total Assets 1.92b)
RoE = 8.02% (Net Income TTM 41.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 513.6m)
RoCE = 9.49% (EBIT 72.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 513.6m + L.T.Debt 248.0m))
RoIC = 2.88% (NOPAT 48.5m / Invested Capital 1.68b)
WACC = 6.25% (E(2.42b)/V(4.04b) * Re(10.31%) + D(1.63b)/V(4.04b) * Rd(0.33%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 10.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -8.99 | Cagr: -3.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.57% ; FCFF base≈38.4m ; Y1≈36.6m ; Y5≈34.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 549.4m - Net Debt 1.31b = -763.8m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 85.66 | EPS CAGR: 139.6% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.81 | Revenue CAGR: 15.35% | SUE: -1.74 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-25.76% | Revisions=-83% | Analysts=16
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-3.99% | Revisions=-39% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-9.28% | Revisions=-83% | GrowthEPS=-15.3% | GrowthRev=+14.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.51 | Chg30d=-7.31% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=+35.1% | GrowthRev=+15.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -79% (up=6, down=62)