(SHOP) Shopify - Ratings and Ratios
Ecommerce Platform, Payment Processing, Point-Of-Sale Hardware, Shipping Labels, Merchant Apps
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 56.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 80.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.74 |
| Alpha | 10.59 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.333 |
| Beta | 2.234 |
| Beta Downside | 2.149 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.39% |
| Mean DD | 13.41% |
| Median DD | 11.75% |
Description: SHOP Shopify December 01, 2025
Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP) is a Canadian-based commerce technology platform that equips merchants of all sizes with an end-to-end solution for selling online, in-store, on social media, and through marketplaces. The suite includes product and inventory management, order fulfillment, analytics, financing, and a fully integrated payment processor (Shopify Payments), plus a marketplace of themes, apps, shipping labels, POS hardware, and advertising services.
Key performance metrics as of FY 2023 show $5.6 billion in total revenue, a 12 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by subscription revenue growth (now exceeding $3 billion) and a 9 % rise in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to $197 billion. The platform serves roughly 2.1 million merchants, with a churn rate under 5 % and gross margins hovering around 70 % on subscription services, reflecting the high-margin SaaS nature of the business.
Economic and sector drivers that materially affect Shopify’s outlook include continued SMB digitization, the acceleration of omnichannel retail post-COVID-19, and macro-level trends such as consumer spending elasticity and inflation-adjusted discretionary income. Competitive pressures from other low-code e-commerce builders (e.g., Wix, Squarespace) and large marketplaces (Amazon, eBay) remain, while the growing adoption of integrated payments and fintech services offers upside upside for Shopify Payments.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (1.78b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 641.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.10pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 60.64% (prev 68.44%; Δ -7.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.93b > Net Income 1.78b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-1.30b) to EBITDA (1.45b) ratio: -0.89 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.93 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.31b) change vs 12m ago 0.87% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 48.75% (prev 50.93%; Δ -2.18pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 78.21% (prev 66.61%; Δ 11.60pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.31 (EBITDA TTM 1.45b / Interest Expense TTM -616.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.07
| (A) 0.43 = (Total Current Assets 8.70b - Total Current Liabilities 2.21b) / Total Assets 15.02b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.11b / Total Assets 15.02b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 1.42b / Avg Total Assets 13.68b |
| (D) 4.84 = Book Value of Equity 12.23b / Total Liabilities 2.53b |
| Total Rating: 9.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.69
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.95% |
| 3. FCF Margin 17.87% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.09 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.89 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.80)% |
| 7. RoE 15.07% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 95.39% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.83% |
What is the price of SHOP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.34%, over one month by -9.32%, over three months by +12.79% and over the past year by +38.81%.
Is SHOP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 24
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SHOP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 175.4 | 11.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 175.4 | 11.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 167.6 | 6.9% |
SHOP Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 118.0296
P/E Forward = 88.4956
P/S = 19.3938
P/B = 16.5803
P/EG = 1.1192
Beta = 2.823
Revenue TTM = 10.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.45b USD
Long Term Debt = 195.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 938.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.30b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 202.21b USD (207.44b + Debt 1.11b - CCE 6.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.31 (Ebit TTM 1.42b / Interest Expense TTM -616.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.95% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 202.21b)
FCF Margin = 17.87% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 10.70b)
Net Margin = 16.65% (Net Income TTM 1.78b / Revenue TTM 10.70b)
Gross Margin = 48.75% ((Revenue TTM 10.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.91% (prev 48.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.46 (Enterprise Value 202.21b / Total Assets 15.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 43.63% (Interest Expense 486.0m / Debt 1.11b)
Taxrate = 14.29% (44.0m / 308.0m)
NOPAT = 1.22b (EBIT 1.42b * (1 - 14.29%))
Current Ratio = 3.93 (Total Current Assets 8.70b / Total Current Liabilities 2.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 1.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.89 (Net Debt -1.30b / EBITDA 1.45b)
Debt / FCF = -0.68 (Net Debt -1.30b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.85% (Net Income 1.78b / Total Assets 15.02b)
RoE = 15.07% (Net Income TTM 1.78b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.81b)
RoCE = 11.84% (EBIT 1.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.81b + L.T.Debt 195.0m))
RoIC = 9.57% (NOPAT 1.22b / Invested Capital 12.73b)
WACC = 14.37% (E(207.44b)/V(208.55b) * Re(14.25%) + D(1.11b)/V(208.55b) * Rd(43.63%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 14.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 63.84% ; FCFE base≈1.72b ; Y1≈2.12b ; Y5≈3.62b
Fair Price DCF = 21.81 (DCF Value 26.66b / Shares Outstanding 1.22b; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.83 | EPS CAGR: 26.70% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.39 | Revenue CAGR: 21.27% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=27
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+27.5% | Growth Revenue=+23.2%
Additional Sources for SHOP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle