(SHOP) Shopify - Ratings and Ratios
Platform, Payments, Themes, Apps, Hardware
SHOP EPS (Earnings per Share)
SHOP Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 57.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 77.6% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.20 |
| Alpha Jensen | 48.08 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.336 |
| Beta | 2.823 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.39% |
| Mean DD | 13.60% |
Description: SHOP Shopify September 24, 2025
Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP) is a commerce-technology firm that supplies an end-to-end platform enabling merchants of any size to launch, grow, and operate businesses across online, mobile, physical-store, social-media, and marketplace channels. The suite includes product and inventory management, order fulfillment, analytics, financing, and a fully integrated payment processor (Shopify Payments) that handles card transactions both online and offline.
Beyond the core SaaS offering, Shopify generates ancillary revenue through the sale of premium themes and third-party apps, shipping-label services (Shopify Shipping), point-of-sale hardware, advertising placements on its App Store, and domain-registration fees. The company also runs “Shop Campaigns,” a buyer-acquisition service that helps merchants drive traffic to their storefronts.
Key performance indicators as of FY 2023 show $5.6 billion in total revenue, a 13 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 22 % rise in subscription revenue and a modest 5 % growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The merchant base exceeded 2.1 million, with the average revenue per merchant (ARPM) remaining stable around $2,600, suggesting that growth is still anchored in new merchant acquisition rather than deepening spend from existing users. However, churn on the mid-tier plans has risen to ~3 % annually, a metric that warrants close monitoring given its impact on recurring revenue visibility.
Shopify’s outlook is tightly linked to broader e-commerce and digital-payments trends. A 2024-2025 forecast from eMarketer predicts global e-commerce sales to grow at a 9 % CAGR, while the adoption of integrated checkout solutions is expected to accelerate, favoring platforms that bundle payments and logistics. Competitive pressure from Amazon, Wix, and emerging low-code builders could compress pricing power, making merchant retention and upsell efficiency critical levers for future profitability.
For a deeper quantitative comparison of Shopify’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform provides a transparent, data-driven dashboard you may want to explore.
SHOP Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 197,599m |
| Sub-Industry | Internet Services & Infrastructure |
| IPO / Inception | 2015-05-21 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 53.0% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.16 of 5 |
SHOP Dividends
Currently no dividends paidSHOP Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 59.04% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.39 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 4.34 |
| Current Volume | 5072.7k |
| Average Volume | 8937.7k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (1.78b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 641.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.10pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 60.64% (prev 68.44%; Δ -7.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.93b > Net Income 1.78b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-1.30b) to EBITDA (1.45b) ratio: -0.89 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.93 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.31b) change vs 12m ago 0.87% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 48.75% (prev 50.93%; Δ -2.18pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 78.21% (prev 66.61%; Δ 11.60pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.31 (EBITDA TTM 1.45b / Interest Expense TTM -616.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.07
| (A) 0.43 = (Total Current Assets 8.70b - Total Current Liabilities 2.21b) / Total Assets 15.02b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.11b / Total Assets 15.02b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 1.42b / Avg Total Assets 13.68b |
| (D) 4.84 = Book Value of Equity 12.23b / Total Liabilities 2.53b |
| Total Rating: 9.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.50
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.99% = 0.50 |
| 3. FCF Margin 17.87% = 4.47 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.09 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.89 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.78)% = -8.48 |
| 7. RoE 15.07% = 1.26 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 91.83% = 6.89 |
| 9. EPS Trend 67.47% = 3.37 |
What is the price of SHOP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.24%, over one month by +3.44%, over three months by +7.76% and over the past year by +76.62%.
Is Shopify a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of SHOP is around 145.68 USD . This means that SHOP is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -8.34%.
Is SHOP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 24
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SHOP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 173.6 | 9.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 173.6 | 9.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 174.2 | 9.6% |
SHOP Fundamental Data Overview November 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 112.0662
P/E Forward = 82.6446
P/S = 18.4741
P/B = 16.219
P/EG = 1.1192
Beta = 2.823
Revenue TTM = 10.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.45b USD
Long Term Debt = 208.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 938.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.30b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 192.37b USD (197.60b + Debt 1.11b - CCE 6.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.31 (Ebit TTM 1.42b / Interest Expense TTM -616.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.99% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 192.37b)
FCF Margin = 17.87% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 10.70b)
Net Margin = 16.65% (Net Income TTM 1.78b / Revenue TTM 10.70b)
Gross Margin = 48.75% ((Revenue TTM 10.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.91% (prev 48.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 12.80 (Enterprise Value 192.37b / Total Assets 15.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 43.63% (Interest Expense 486.0m / Debt 1.11b)
Taxrate = 14.29% (44.0m / 308.0m)
NOPAT = 1.22b (EBIT 1.42b * (1 - 14.29%))
Current Ratio = 3.93 (Total Current Assets 8.70b / Total Current Liabilities 2.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 1.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.89 (Net Debt -1.30b / EBITDA 1.45b)
Debt / FCF = -0.68 (Net Debt -1.30b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.85% (Net Income 1.78b / Total Assets 15.02b)
RoE = 15.07% (Net Income TTM 1.78b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.81b)
RoCE = 11.83% (EBIT 1.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.81b + L.T.Debt 208.0m))
RoIC = 9.75% (NOPAT 1.22b / Invested Capital 12.50b)
WACC = 16.54% (E(197.60b)/V(198.71b) * Re(16.42%) + D(1.11b)/V(198.71b) * Rd(43.63%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 16.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 58.76% ; FCFE base≈1.72b ; Y1≈2.12b ; Y5≈3.62b
Fair Price DCF = 18.08 (DCF Value 22.10b / Shares Outstanding 1.22b; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 67.47 | EPS CAGR: 77.66% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.83 | Revenue CAGR: 19.69% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for SHOP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle