SJM Stock Analysis: The J. M. Smucker | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 11.928m USD | 12M Return: 11% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 177M
EPS Trend: -27.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 85.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide through four reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. As a large-cap player in the Consumer Staples sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats), the company relies on a portfolio of well-known consumer brands and broad retail distribution to generate recurring revenue.
Its product range spans coffee, sweet baked goods, peanut butter, fruit and specialty spreads, frozen handheld sandwiches, and cat and dog food, sold under brands including Folgers, Dunkin, Café Bustelo, Jif, Smuckers, Smuckers Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, and Hostess. The branded packaged-foods business model is anchored by sustained marketing investment in these trademarks and licensing partnerships (such as the Dunkin and Hostess agreements), which are key drivers of shelf presence and pricing power in grocery and mass channels.
SJM distributes its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, supermarkets, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, vending operators, and foodservice distributors. Founded in 1897 and headquartered in Orrville, Ohio, the company has been publicly traded since its October 1994 IPO and serves both North American and international markets.
- Coffee bean costs pressure U.S. Retail Coffee margins
- Hostess integration and debt paydown reshape capital allocation
- Uncrustables demand fuels U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld expansion
| Net Income: -138.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.24% < 20% (prev -5.79%; Δ -0.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 1.47b > Net Income -138.7m |
| Net Debt (7.16b) to EBITDA (1.03b): 6.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (106.7m) vs 12m ago 0.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.53% > 18% (prev 38.79%; Δ -5.26% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.58% > 50% (prev 49.68%; Δ 3.90% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 318.8m / Interest Expense TTM 381.2m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.97b - Total Current Liabilities 2.54b) / Total Assets 16.2b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -101.3m / Total Assets 16.2b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 318.8m / Avg Total Assets 16.9b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 5.54b / Total Liabilities 10.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.42 = B |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 656.3m/619.0m, Revenue 9.05b/8.73b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 38.79% / 33.53%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.70) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 9.05b / 8.73b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -138.7m - CFO 1.47b) / TA 16.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 111.60 with a total of 947,127 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.02%, over one month by -4.20%, over three months by +26.03% and over the past year by +11.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 103.00 (which is 7.7% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
The J. M. Smucker has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.55. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SJM.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 122.3 | 9.6% |
P/E Forward = 11.2486
P/S = 1.3092
P/B = 2.1655
P/EG = 1.6776
Revenue TTM = 9.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 318.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.03b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 570.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 125.3m
Net Debt = 7.16b USD (calculated: Debt 7.21b - CCE 58.6m)
Enterprise Value = 19.1b USD (11.9b + Debt 7.21b - CCE 58.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.84 (Ebit TTM 318.8m / Interest Expense TTM 381.2m)
EV/FCF = 16.51x (Enterprise Value 19.1b / FCF TTM 1.16b)
FCF Yield = 6.06% (FCF TTM 1.16b / Enterprise Value 19.1b)
FCF Margin = 12.77% (FCF TTM 1.16b / Revenue TTM 9.05b)
Net Margin = -1.53% (Net Income TTM -138.7m / Revenue TTM 9.05b)
Gross Margin = 33.53% ((Revenue TTM 9.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.02b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.49% (prev 35.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 19.1b / Total Assets 16.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.28% (Interest Expense 381.2m / Debt 7.21b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 251.9m (EBIT 318.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.78 (Total Current Assets 1.97b / Total Current Liabilities 2.54b)
Debt / Equity = 1.30 (Debt 7.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.97 (Net Debt 7.16b / EBITDA 1.03b)
Debt / FCF = 6.19 (Net Debt 7.16b / FCF TTM 1.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.82% (Net Income -138.7m / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = -2.44% (Net Income TTM -138.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.69b)
RoCE = 2.64% (EBIT 318.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.69b + L.T.Debt 6.39b))
RoIC = 1.77% (NOPAT 251.9m / Invested Capital 14.2b)
WACC = 4.88% (E(11.9b)/V(19.1b) * Re(5.31%) + D(7.21b)/V(19.1b) * Rd(5.28%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 74.74 | Cagr: 0.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.17b ; Y5≈1.72b
[DCF] Fair Price = 175.4 (EV 25.9b - Net Debt 7.16b = Equity 18.7b / Shares 106.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -27.75 | EPS CAGR: -1.74% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 85.61 | Revenue CAGR: 3.37% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+0.12% | Revisions=-8% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=2.56 | Chg30d=+2.01% | Revisions=+7% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=10.00 | Chg30d=+1.28% | Revisions=+39% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=-2.2%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=8.75 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+4.2% | GrowthRev=+0.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=23, down=16)