SJM Stock Analysis: The J. M. Smucker | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 13.991m USD | 12M Return: 29.9% | US8326964058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 137M
EPS Trend: -33.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 92.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide through four reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. As a large-cap player in the Consumer Staples sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats), the company relies on a portfolio of well-known consumer brands and broad retail distribution to generate recurring revenue.
Its product range spans coffee, sweet baked goods, peanut butter, fruit and specialty spreads, frozen handheld sandwiches, and cat and dog food, sold under brands including Folgers, Dunkin, Café Bustelo, Jif, Smuckers, Smuckers Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, and Hostess. The branded packaged-foods business model is anchored by sustained marketing investment in these trademarks and licensing partnerships (such as the Dunkin and Hostess agreements), which are key drivers of shelf presence and pricing power in grocery and mass channels.
SJM distributes its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, supermarkets, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, vending operators, and foodservice distributors. Founded in 1897 and headquartered in Orrville, Ohio, the company has been publicly traded since its October 1994 IPO and serves both North American and international markets.
- Coffee bean costs pressure U.S. Retail Coffee margins
- Hostess integration and debt paydown reshape capital allocation
- Uncrustables demand fuels U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld expansion
| Net Income: 229.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.25% < 20% (prev -6.33%; Δ 3.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 1.91b > Net Income 229.5m |
| Net Debt (6.98b) to EBITDA (1.33b): 5.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (107.1m) vs 12m ago 0.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.65% > 18% (prev 35.14%; Δ 3.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.95% > 50% (prev 49.12%; Δ 4.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.16 > 6 (EBIT TTM 785.3m / Interest Expense TTM 363.3m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.99b - Total Current Liabilities 2.29b) / Total Assets 16.2b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 103.6m / Total Assets 16.2b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 785.3m / Avg Total Assets 17.0b) |
| D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 5.75b / Total Liabilities 10.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.79 = B |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 615.7m/643.2m, Revenue 9.16b/8.71b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 35.14% / 38.65%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.69) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 9.16b / 8.71b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 229.5m - CFO 1.91b) / TA 16.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 131.84 with a total of 2,132,169 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.14%, over one month by +9.93%, over three months by +29.22% and over the past year by +29.90%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 127.30 (which is 3.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
The J. M. Smucker has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.55. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SJM.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 134.3 | 1.8% |
P/E Forward = 12.5628
P/S = 1.5458
P/B = 2.4186
P/EG = 1.6776
Revenue TTM = 9.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 785.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.33b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 343.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 125.3m
Net Debt = 6.98b USD (calculated: Debt 7.02b - CCE 43.2m)
Enterprise Value = 21.0b USD (14.0b + Debt 7.02b - CCE 43.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.16 (Ebit TTM 785.3m / Interest Expense TTM 363.3m)
EV/FCF = 13.20x (Enterprise Value 21.0b / FCF TTM 1.59b)
FCF Yield = 7.57% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Enterprise Value 21.0b)
FCF Margin = 17.35% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Revenue TTM 9.16b)
Net Margin = 2.51% (Net Income TTM 229.5m / Revenue TTM 9.16b)
Gross Margin = 38.65% ((Revenue TTM 9.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.14% (prev 38.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 21.0b / Total Assets 16.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.17% (Interest Expense 363.3m / Debt 7.02b)
Taxrate = 45.62% (192.5m / 422.0m)
NOPAT = 427.1m (EBIT 785.3m * (1 - 45.62%))
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 1.99b / Total Current Liabilities 2.29b)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 7.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.23 (Net Debt 6.98b / EBITDA 1.33b)
Debt / FCF = 4.39 (Net Debt 6.98b / FCF TTM 1.59b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.35% (Net Income 229.5m / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = 4.06% (Net Income TTM 229.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.65b)
RoCE = 6.52% (EBIT 785.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.65b + L.T.Debt 6.39b))
RoIC = 3.00% (NOPAT 427.1m / Invested Capital 14.2b)
WACC = 3.87% (E(14.0b)/V(21.0b) * Re(4.40%) + D(7.02b)/V(21.0b) * Rd(5.17%) * (1-Tc(0.46)))
Discount Rate = 4.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 78.33 | Cagr: 0.29%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.22b ; Y1≈1.40b ; Y5≈2.06b
[DCF] Fair Price = 225.0 (EV 31.0b - Net Debt 6.98b = Equity 24.0b / Shares 106.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -33.53 | EPS CAGR: -2.31% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 92.28 | Revenue CAGR: 4.03% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=2.55 | Chg30d=-0.08% | Revisions=+7% | Analysts=13
EPS next Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=2.54 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=-64% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=10.35 | Chg30d=+3.51% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+13.1% | GrowthRev=-2.2%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=9.05 | Chg30d=+1.32% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=9, down=16)