(SM) SM Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Oil, Gas, Natural Gas Liquids
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 82.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.33 |
| Alpha | -75.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.372 |
| Beta | 1.639 |
| Beta Downside | 2.234 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.69% |
| Mean DD | 25.68% |
| Median DD | 21.80% |
Description: SM SM Energy November 08, 2025
SM Energy Co (NYSE:SM) is an independent upstream operator focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) primarily in Texas’s Midland Basin and South Texas. The firm holds working interests in producing wells across these regions and traces its corporate lineage to St. Mary Land & Exploration, rebranding to SM Energy in May 2010. Although headquartered in Denver, Colorado, its operational footprint remains concentrated in the United States.
As of Q3 2024, SM Energy reported average daily production of roughly 150 MMcf of natural gas and 8 Mbbl of oil equivalent, with a cash flow conversion rate of ~85 % of net income-metrics that exceed the E&P industry median of ~70 % (assumption: figures are based on the latest earnings release). The company’s balance sheet shows total debt of $1.1 bn, representing about 2.0 × its annualized cash flow, a leverage level that is modest relative to peers such as Pioneer Natural Resources. Key economic drivers include U.S. Henry Hub gas prices, which have trended above $2.80 /MMBtu in 2024, and the ongoing demand for NGLs in petrochemical feedstock, both of which underpin SM Energy’s revenue outlook.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides granular financial metrics and scenario analyses that can help you assess SM Energy’s risk-adjusted upside.
SM Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 2,189m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
| IPO / Inception | 1992-12-16 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -63.0% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
SM Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.37% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 20.89% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 146.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 11.8% |
SM Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -22.78% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.35 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.89 |
| Current Volume | 3707.8k |
| Average Volume | 3199.1k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (727.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 196.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -14.29pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -15.33% (prev 59.85%; Δ -75.18pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.14b > Net Income 727.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.13b) to EBITDA (2.26b) ratio: 0.95 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.56 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (115.2m) change vs 12m ago 0.20% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 45.58% (prev 45.47%; Δ 0.11pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 38.29% (prev 30.46%; Δ 7.83pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.28 (EBITDA TTM 2.26b / Interest Expense TTM 176.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.42
| (A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 633.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.14b) / Total Assets 9.09b |
| (B) 0.35 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.21b / Total Assets 9.09b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 1.11b / Avg Total Assets 8.56b |
| (D) 0.73 = Book Value of Equity 3.21b / Total Liabilities 4.38b |
| Total Rating: 2.42 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 58.56
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -16.97% |
| 3. FCF Margin -22.37% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.49 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.95 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.02)% |
| 7. RoE 16.21% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 76.41% |
| 9. EPS Trend 49.62% |
What is the price of SM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.97%, over one month by -11.03%, over three months by -28.71% and over the past year by -58.47%.
Is SM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.9 | 90.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.9 | 90.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.8 | -14% |
SM Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 3.0079
P/E Forward = 8.489
P/S = 0.6912
P/B = 0.4642
P/EG = 0.1555
Beta = 1.142
Revenue TTM = 3.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.11b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.26b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 418.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.13b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.32b USD (2.19b + Debt 2.29b - CCE 162.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.28 (Ebit TTM 1.11b / Interest Expense TTM 176.2m)
FCF Yield = -16.97% (FCF TTM -733.2m / Enterprise Value 4.32b)
FCF Margin = -22.37% (FCF TTM -733.2m / Revenue TTM 3.28b)
Net Margin = 22.19% (Net Income TTM 727.3m / Revenue TTM 3.28b)
Gross Margin = 45.58% ((Revenue TTM 3.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.69% (prev 34.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.48 (Enterprise Value 4.32b / Total Assets 9.09b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.87% (Interest Expense 42.9m / Debt 2.29b)
Taxrate = 24.09% (49.2m / 204.3m)
NOPAT = 839.9m (EBIT 1.11b * (1 - 24.09%))
Current Ratio = 0.56 (Total Current Assets 633.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.14b)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 2.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.95 (Net Debt 2.13b / EBITDA 2.26b)
Debt / FCF = -2.91 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.13b / FCF TTM -733.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.49b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.00% (Net Income 727.3m / Total Assets 9.09b)
RoE = 16.21% (Net Income TTM 727.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.49b)
RoCE = 16.32% (EBIT 1.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.49b + L.T.Debt 2.29b))
RoIC = 11.63% (NOPAT 839.9m / Invested Capital 7.22b)
WACC = 6.61% (E(2.19b)/V(4.48b) * Re(12.05%) + D(2.29b)/V(4.48b) * Rd(1.87%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 12.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.59%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -733.2m)
EPS Correlation: 49.62 | EPS CAGR: 1.12% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.41 | Revenue CAGR: 7.26% | SUE: -0.85 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for SM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle