SM Stock Analysis: SM Energy | NYSE

Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.711m USD | 12M Return: 34.7% | US78454L1008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Oil, Natural Gas, Gas Liquids
Total Rating 60
Safety 46
Buy Signal 0.22
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: +16.3
Market Cap: 7.71B
Avg Turnover: 109M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility57.5%
VaR 5th Pctl10.2%
VaR vs Median7.96%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.69
Rel. Str. IBD84.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group89.3
Character TTM
Beta0.567
Beta Downside1.398
Hurst Exponent0.490
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD64.87%
CAGR/Max DD-0.05
CAGR/Mean DD-0.12
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.01, "2021-09": 0.74, "2021-12": 1.14, "2022-03": 1.98, "2022-06": 2.19, "2022-09": 1.82, "2022-12": 1.29, "2023-03": 1.33, "2023-06": 1.28, "2023-09": 1.73, "2023-12": 1.59, "2024-03": 1.41, "2024-06": 1.85, "2024-09": 1.62, "2024-12": 1.91, "2025-03": 1.76, "2025-06": 1.5, "2025-09": 1.33, "2025-12": 0.83, "2026-03": 1.55, "2026-06": 2.19,
EPS CAGR: -1.72%
EPS Trend: -15.9%
Last SUE: 1.43
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of SM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 563.849, 2021-09: 760.239, 2021-12: 854.96, 2022-03: 858.721, 2022-06: 990.377, 2022-09: 827.558, 2022-12: 669.25, 2023-03: 570.778, 2023-06: 546.555, 2023-09: 639.699, 2023-12: 606.857, 2024-03: 559.596, 2024-06: 633.451, 2024-09: 642.38, 2024-12: 835.858, 2025-03: 839.62, 2025-06: 785.076, 2025-09: 811.009, 2025-12: 718.295, 2026-03: 1479, 2026-06: 2500,
Rev. CAGR: 27.93%
Rev. Trend: 88.6%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
Choppy

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader
Pead

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -2.9% 20
Feb -12.6% 32
Mar +0.7% 28
Apr -3.5% 21
May +0.3% 7
Jun +1.7% 5
Jul +7.6% 37
Aug +0.3% 0
Sep -1.8% 16
Oct +3.0% 17
Nov +0.6% 0
Dec -5.3% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SM SM Energy

SM Energy Company is an independent U.S. energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). As a pure-play upstream operator, the company holds working interests in producing wells across four core basins: the Midland Basin (part of the Permian), South Texas (Eagle Ford region), the Uinta Basin, and the DJ Basin. These are all well-known U.S. unconventional oil and shale gas plays.

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the company was founded in 1908 and was originally known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company before adopting its current name in May 2010. Like most independent exploration and production (E&P) firms, SM Energy concentrates solely on upstream activities and does not engage in refining, transportation, or retail marketing of hydrocarbons.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • WTI crude prices swing Midland Basin margins
  • Capital return program expands on rising free cash flow
  • Uinta Basin production diversifies Permian-heavy output mix
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 1.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.47 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -21.59% < 20% (prev -8.47%; Δ -13.11% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 2.70b > Net Income 1.00b
Net Debt (6.42b) to EBITDA (3.56b): 1.80 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.62 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (240.0m) vs 12m ago 108.8% < -2%
Gross Margin: 61.49% > 18% (prev 40.75%; Δ 20.74% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 39.56% > 50% (prev 34.50%; Δ 5.05% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 569.8m)
Altman Z'' 1.92
A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 1.90b - Total Current Liabilities 3.09b) / Total Assets 18.9b
B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 3.92b / Total Assets 18.9b)
C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 1.89b / Avg Total Assets 13.9b)
D: 0.71 (Book Value of Equity 7.81b / Total Liabilities 11.0b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.92 = BBB
Beneish M -2.21
DSRI: 1.53 (Receivables 989.0m/364.3m, Revenue 5.51b/3.10b)
GMI: 0.66 (GM 40.75% / 61.49%)
AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.78 (Revenue 5.51b / 3.10b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.00b - CFO 2.70b) / TA 18.9b)
Beneish M = -2.21 (Cap -4..+1) = BB
What is the price of SM shares?

As of August 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.75 with a total of 4,111,303 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.86%, over one month by +11.72%, over three months by +2.45% and over the past year by +34.67%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.70 (which is 6.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is SM a buy, sell or hold?

SM Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SM.

  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SM price?
Analysts Target Price 39.1 15.9%
SM Energy (SM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 15 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 7.71b (7.71b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 5.7482
P/E Forward = 4.3802
P/S = 1.5541
P/B = 0.9669
P/EG = 0.5476
Revenue TTM = 5.51b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.89b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.56b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.62b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 416.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.42b USD (calculated: Debt 7.04b - CCE 620.0m)
Enterprise Value = 14.1b USD (7.71b + Debt 7.04b - CCE 620.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.32 (Ebit TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 569.8m)
EV/FCF = -376.3x (Enterprise Value 14.1b / FCF TTM -37.5m)
FCF Yield = -0.27% (FCF TTM -37.5m / Enterprise Value 14.1b)
FCF Margin = -0.68% (FCF TTM -37.5m / Revenue TTM 5.51b)
Net Margin = 18.16% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Revenue TTM 5.51b)
Gross Margin = 61.49% ((Revenue TTM 5.51b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.76% (prev 71.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 14.1b / Total Assets 18.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.10% (Interest Expense 569.8m / Debt 7.04b)
Taxrate = 24.49% (324.4m / 1.32b)
NOPAT = 1.43b (EBIT 1.89b * (1 - 24.49%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 1.90b / Total Current Liabilities 3.09b)
Debt / Equity = 0.90 (Debt 7.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.80 (Net Debt 6.42b / EBITDA 3.56b)
 Debt / FCF = -170.9 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 6.42b / FCF TTM -37.5m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 6.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.18% (Net Income 1.00b / Total Assets 18.9b)
RoE = 16.53% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.05b)
RoCE = 14.95% (EBIT 1.89b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.05b + L.T.Debt 6.62b))
RoIC = 8.99% (NOPAT 1.43b / Invested Capital 15.9b)
WACC = 7.09% (E(7.71b)/V(14.7b) * Re(7.98%) + D(7.04b)/V(14.7b) * Rd(8.10%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 51.51 | Cagr: 37.90%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -37.5m)
 EPS Correlation: -15.85 | EPS CAGR: -1.72% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 88.59 | Revenue CAGR: 27.93% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=-8.37% | Revisions=-53% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.05 | Chg30d=-0.08% | Revisions=-47% | GrowthEPS=+30.1% | GrowthRev=+136.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.40 | Chg30d=-2.42% | Revisions=-36% | GrowthEPS=+52.3% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -54% (up=7, down=27)