SM Stock Analysis: SM Energy | NYSE

Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.794m USD | 12M Return: 2.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Oil, Natural Gas, Gas Liquids
Total Rating 36
Safety 36
Buy Signal -0.32
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -1.1
Market Cap: 6.79B
Avg Turnover: 118M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility53.3%
VaR 5th Pctl9.48%
VaR vs Median8.06%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Rel. Str. IBD64.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group67.5
Character TTM
Beta1.093
Beta Downside1.723
Hurst Exponent0.477
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD64.87%
CAGR/Max DD-0.04
CAGR/Mean DD-0.08
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.01, "2021-09": 0.74, "2021-12": 1.14, "2022-03": 1.98, "2022-06": 2.19, "2022-09": 1.82, "2022-12": 1.29, "2023-03": 1.33, "2023-06": 1.28, "2023-09": 1.73, "2023-12": 1.59, "2024-03": 1.41, "2024-06": 1.85, "2024-09": 1.62, "2024-12": 1.91, "2025-03": 1.76, "2025-06": 1.5, "2025-09": 1.33, "2025-12": 0.83, "2026-03": 1.55,
EPS CAGR: 0.25%
EPS Trend: 2.2%
Last SUE: 2.90
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of SM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 563.849, 2021-09: 760.239, 2021-12: 854.96, 2022-03: 858.721, 2022-06: 990.377, 2022-09: 827.558, 2022-12: 669.25, 2023-03: 570.778, 2023-06: 546.555, 2023-09: 639.699, 2023-12: 606.857, 2024-03: 559.596, 2024-06: 633.451, 2024-09: 642.38, 2024-12: 835.858, 2025-03: 839.62, 2025-06: 785.076, 2025-09: 811.009, 2025-12: 718.295, 2026-03: 1479,
Rev. CAGR: 16.27%
Rev. Trend: 87.3%
Last SUE: 1.59
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -2.5% 16
Feb -9.3% 27
Mar +0.6% 25
Apr -4.2% 28
May -0.6% 0
Jun +2.0% 11
Jul +4.4% 23
Aug -1.6% 9
Sep -2.0% 21
Oct +4.4% 23
Nov -0.2% 11
Dec +4.5% 6

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SM SM Energy

SM Energy Company is an independent U.S. energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). As a pure-play upstream operator, the company holds working interests in producing wells across four core basins: the Midland Basin (part of the Permian), South Texas (Eagle Ford region), the Uinta Basin, and the DJ Basin. These are all well-known U.S. unconventional oil and shale gas plays.

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the company was founded in 1908 and was originally known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company before adopting its current name in May 2010. Like most independent exploration and production (E&P) firms, SM Energy concentrates solely on upstream activities and does not engage in refining, transportation, or retail marketing of hydrocarbons.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • WTI crude prices swing Midland Basin margins
  • Capital return program expands on rising free cash flow
  • Uinta Basin production diversifies Permian-heavy output mix
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 130.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.96 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -68.78% < 20% (prev -11.89%; Δ -56.89% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 2.17b > Net Income 130.7m
Net Debt (7.53b) to EBITDA (2.06b): 3.66 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.39 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (115.0m) vs 12m ago 0.05% < -2%
Gross Margin: 45.11% > 18% (prev 44.51%; Δ 0.60% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 27.16% > 50% (prev 33.58%; Δ -6.42% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.37 > 6 (EBIT TTM 689.4m / Interest Expense TTM 501.4m)
Altman Z'' 0.52
A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 4.28b) / Total Assets 19.1b
B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 2.90b / Total Assets 19.1b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 689.4m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b)
D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 6.87b / Total Liabilities 12.3b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.52 = B
Beneish M -2.07
DSRI: 1.86 (Receivables 915.0m/383.0m, Revenue 3.79b/2.95b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 44.51% / 45.11%)
AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 3.79b / 2.95b)
TATA: -0.11 (NI 130.7m - CFO 2.17b) / TA 19.1b)
Beneish M = -2.07 (Cap -4..+1) = BB
What is the price of SM shares?

As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 27.81 with a total of 1,744,573 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.58%, over one month by -15.29%, over three months by -1.33% and over the past year by +2.27%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.70 (which is 7.6% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is SM a buy, sell or hold?

SM Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SM.

  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SM price?
Analysts Target Price 39 40.2%
SM Energy (SM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 6.79b (6.79b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.2684
P/E Forward = 4.1408
P/S = 1.8785
P/B = 1.0162
P/EG = 0.5176
Revenue TTM = 3.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 689.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.06b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.74b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.24b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.53b USD (calculated: Debt 7.98b - CCE 449.0m)
Enterprise Value = 14.3b USD (6.79b + Debt 7.98b - CCE 449.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.37 (Ebit TTM 689.4m / Interest Expense TTM 501.4m)
EV/FCF = -63.48x (Enterprise Value 14.3b / FCF TTM -225.6m)
FCF Yield = -1.58% (FCF TTM -225.6m / Enterprise Value 14.3b)
FCF Margin = -5.95% (FCF TTM -225.6m / Revenue TTM 3.79b)
Net Margin = 3.45% (Net Income TTM 130.7m / Revenue TTM 3.79b)
Gross Margin = 45.11% ((Revenue TTM 3.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.06% (prev 18.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 14.3b / Total Assets 19.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.29% (Interest Expense 501.4m / Debt 7.98b)
Taxrate = 30.46% (57.3m / 188.0m)
NOPAT = 479.4m (EBIT 689.4m * (1 - 30.46%))
Current Ratio = 0.39 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 4.28b)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 7.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.66 (Net Debt 7.53b / EBITDA 2.06b)
 Debt / FCF = -33.36 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 7.53b / FCF TTM -225.6m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 5.25b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.94% (Net Income 130.7m / Total Assets 19.1b)
RoE = 2.49% (Net Income TTM 130.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.25b)
RoCE = 5.75% (EBIT 689.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.25b + L.T.Debt 6.74b))
RoIC = 3.01% (NOPAT 479.4m / Invested Capital 15.9b)
WACC = 6.88% (E(6.79b)/V(14.8b) * Re(9.83%) + D(7.98b)/V(14.8b) * Rd(6.29%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -47.74 | Cagr: -0.61%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -225.6m)
 EPS Correlation: 2.22 | EPS CAGR: 0.25% | SUE: 2.90 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.31 | Revenue CAGR: 16.27% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.89 | Chg30d=-7.09% | Revisions=+8% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=-13.52% | Revisions=+8% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.09 | Chg30d=-8.26% | Revisions=+46% | GrowthEPS=+30.7% | GrowthRev=+129.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.60 | Chg30d=-3.44% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+89.6% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=23, down=12)