(SMG) Scotts Miracle-Gro - Overview
Stock: Lawn Care, Fertilizer, Seeds, Hydroponics, Pest Control
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 |
| Alpha | 6.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.612 |
| Beta Downside | 0.663 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.51% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.04 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro January 10, 2026
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE:SMG) manufactures and markets a broad portfolio of lawn, garden and indoor-hydroponic products under brands such as Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho and AeroGarden. Its offerings span traditional fertilizers, seed and pest-control items to high-tech hydroponic lighting and nutrient systems, sold through big-box retailers, e-commerce sites and specialty growers worldwide. The firm, founded in 1868 and based in Marysville, Ohio, operates primarily in the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry.
Key recent metrics: SMG generated roughly $5.0 billion in revenue for FY 2023, with a 7 % YoY increase driven by strong demand for premium lawn care and a 12 % rise in its hydroponics segment (≈$300 million). The business benefits from macro-drivers such as higher consumer spending on home improvement (U.S. home-center sales up ~5 % YoY) and a secular shift toward indoor gardening, which has grown at a CAGR of ~15 % since 2020. Conversely, exposure to volatile fertilizer input costs and regulatory scrutiny of weed-killer products (e.g., Roundup litigation) adds downside risk.
For a deeper dive into SMG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven overview.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 89.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.69% < 20% (prev 16.90%; Δ -7.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 446.2m > Net Income 89.8m |
| Net Debt (2.52b) to EBITDA (448.6m): 5.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (57.9m) vs 12m ago 1.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.98% > 18% (prev 0.25%; Δ 3073 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.0% > 50% (prev 112.3%; Δ -4.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 448.6m / Interest Expense TTM 122.3m) |
Altman Z'' 1.77
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.26b - Total Current Liabilities 932.4m) / Total Assets 3.03b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 131.2m / Total Assets 3.03b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 376.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 371.9m / Total Liabilities 3.53b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.77 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.43
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 193.8m/213.6m, Revenue 3.35b/3.56b) |
| GMI: 0.80 (GM 30.98% / 24.81%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.40) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 3.35b / 3.56b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 89.8m - CFO 446.2m) / TA 3.03b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.43 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.16%, over one month by +11.24%, over three months by +31.39% and over the past year by +20.20%.
Is SMG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 72.3 | 4.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 72.3 | 4.6% |
SMG Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.3156
P/S = 1.1914
P/B = 18.9789
P/EG = 0.2279
Revenue TTM = 3.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 376.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 448.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.25b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 278.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.53b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.52b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.57b USD (4.05b + Debt 2.53b - CCE 8.30m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.08 (Ebit TTM 376.7m / Interest Expense TTM 122.3m)
EV/FCF = 18.35x (Enterprise Value 6.57b / FCF TTM 358.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.45% (FCF TTM 358.1m / Enterprise Value 6.57b)
FCF Margin = 10.69% (FCF TTM 358.1m / Revenue TTM 3.35b)
Net Margin = 2.68% (Net Income TTM 89.8m / Revenue TTM 3.35b)
Gross Margin = 30.98% ((Revenue TTM 3.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.03% (prev 6.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.17 (Enterprise Value 6.57b / Total Assets 3.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 27.2m / Debt 2.53b)
Taxrate = 34.51% (76.5m / 221.7m)
NOPAT = 246.7m (EBIT 376.7m * (1 - 34.51%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 1.26b / Total Current Liabilities 932.4m)
Debt / Equity = -5.05 (negative equity) (Debt 2.53b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -500.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.62 (Net Debt 2.52b / EBITDA 448.6m)
Debt / FCF = 7.04 (Net Debt 2.52b / FCF TTM 358.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -329.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.89% (Net Income 89.8m / Total Assets 3.03b)
RoE = -27.23% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 89.8m / Total Stockholder Equity -329.8m)
RoCE = 19.62% (EBIT 376.7m / Capital Employed (Equity -329.8m + L.T.Debt 2.25b))
RoIC = 12.26% (NOPAT 246.7m / Invested Capital 2.01b)
WACC = 5.30% (E(4.05b)/V(6.58b) * Re(8.17%) + D(2.53b)/V(6.58b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 8.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈410.9m ; Y1≈269.7m ; Y5≈123.1m
Fair Price DCF = 24.16 (EV 3.92b - Net Debt 2.52b = Equity 1.40b / Shares 58.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -39.99% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -17.91 | EPS CAGR: -29.02% | SUE: 0.93 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -32.77 | Revenue CAGR: -33.95% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.99 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.28 | Chg30d=-0.061 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+14.5% | Growth Revenue=-3.0%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.86 | Chg30d=-0.121 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+13.5% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%