SMG Stock Analysis: Scotts Miracle-Gro | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.796m USD | 12M Return: -1.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 53.2M
EPS Trend: 81.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -72.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG) is a U.S.-based manufacturer and marketer of consumer lawn, garden, and indoor/hydroponic gardening products with operations in the United States and internationally. Its product portfolio spans lawn fertilizers, grass seed, spreaders, and weed/pest control products; gardening items such as potting mixes, soils, mulches, and organic plant foods; and hydroponic equipment including lighting systems and nutrients that enable soil-less cultivation.
The company sells through a wide retail network that includes home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, hardware chains, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, food and drug stores, and indoor gardening distributors. It markets products under numerous brands including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Roundup (licensed), AeroGarden, General Hydroponics, and Botanicare. Founded in 1868 and headquartered in Marysville, Ohio, SMG is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry.
The lawn and garden retail category is highly seasonal, with demand concentrated in the spring growing season, and the consumer hydroponics segment represents a structurally growing niche as interest in indoor and controlled-environment cultivation expands.
- Hawthorne hydroponics segment revenue declines weigh on total growth
- Housing turnover and spring weather drive consumer lawn care demand
- Raw material and freight costs pressure gross margin recovery
| Net Income: 110.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.22% < 20% (prev 20.73%; Δ -10.51% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 478.1m > Net Income 110.9m |
| Net Debt (2.62b) to EBITDA (504.4m): 5.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (59.1m) vs 12m ago 1.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.48% > 18% (prev 28.00%; Δ 4.48% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 97.55% > 50% (prev 97.68%; Δ -0.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM 435.4m / Interest Expense TTM 117.0m) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 1.62b - Total Current Liabilities 1.28b) / Total Assets 3.41b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 331.0m / Total Assets 3.41b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 435.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.47b) |
| D: -0.08 (Book Value of Equity -286.5m / Total Liabilities 3.70b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.74 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 766.7m/799.3m, Revenue 3.39b/3.45b) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 28.00% / 32.48%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 3.39b / 3.45b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 110.9m - CFO 478.1m) / TA 3.41b) |
| Beneish M = -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.48 with a total of 327,058 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.89%, over one month by +10.27%, over three months by +9.02% and over the past year by -1.41%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 62.30 (which is 4.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Scotts Miracle-Gro has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.36. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMG.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 73 | 11.5% |
P/E Trailing = 18.75
P/E Forward = 15.8228
P/S = 1.0938
P/B = 21.9459
P/EG = 0.8994
Revenue TTM = 3.39b USD
EBIT TTM = 435.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 504.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.07b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 279.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.62b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 273.8m
Net Debt = 2.62b USD (calculated: Debt 2.62b - CCE 6.20m)
Enterprise Value = 6.41b USD (3.80b + Debt 2.62b - CCE 6.20m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.72 (Ebit TTM 435.4m / Interest Expense TTM 117.0m)
EV/FCF = 16.89x (Enterprise Value 6.41b / FCF TTM 379.7m)
FCF Yield = 5.92% (FCF TTM 379.7m / Enterprise Value 6.41b)
FCF Margin = 11.20% (FCF TTM 379.7m / Revenue TTM 3.39b)
Net Margin = 3.27% (Net Income TTM 110.9m / Revenue TTM 3.39b)
Gross Margin = 32.48% ((Revenue TTM 3.39b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.29b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.83% (prev 25.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.88 (Enterprise Value 6.41b / Total Assets 3.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.46% (Interest Expense 117.0m / Debt 2.62b)
Taxrate = 33.14% (105.5m / 318.3m)
NOPAT = 291.1m (EBIT 435.4m * (1 - 33.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.27 (Total Current Assets 1.62b / Total Current Liabilities 1.28b)
Debt / Equity = -9.15 (negative equity) (Debt 2.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -286.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.19 (Net Debt 2.62b / EBITDA 504.4m)
Debt / FCF = 6.89 (Net Debt 2.62b / FCF TTM 379.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -328.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.19% (Net Income 110.9m / Total Assets 3.41b)
RoE = -33.72% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 110.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -328.9m)
RoCE = 25.03% (EBIT 435.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -328.9m + L.T.Debt 2.07b))
RoIC = 12.08% (NOPAT 291.1m / Invested Capital 2.41b)
WACC = 6.50% (E(3.80b)/V(6.42b) * Re(8.93%) + D(2.62b)/V(6.42b) * Rd(4.46%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 8.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 55.56 | Cagr: 1.86%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.36% ; FCFF base≈380.6m ; Y1≈380.3m ; Y5≈399.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.82 (EV 6.21b - Net Debt 2.62b = Equity 3.60b / Shares 58.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -0.58% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 81.03 | EPS CAGR: 79.00% | SUE: 2.04 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -72.00 | Revenue CAGR: -2.04% | SUE: 1.61 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.47 | Chg30d=-0.17% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.34 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=-2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.70 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)