SMG Stock Analysis: Scotts Miracle-Gro | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.865m USD | 12M Return: 19.7% | US8101861065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 63.6M
EPS Trend: 88.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -70.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) manufactures and markets branded lawn, garden, and indoor and hydroponic gardening products. Its portfolio includes fertilizers, seeds, plant foods, soils, mulches, pest and weed controls, spreaders, lighting, and indoor-growing systems under brands including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Turf Builder, Ortho, and AeroGarden.
The company sells through home centers, mass merchandisers, hardware chains, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and specialist hydroponic channels. Classified in the Materials sector under Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, SMG follows a branded packaged-products model, with demand influenced by seasonal lawn and garden activity. Founded in 1868, it is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
- Hawthorne hydroponic segment revenue declines as cannabis demand softens
- Consumer lawn care spending pressured by elevated interest rates
- Retail channel concentration risk with Home Depot and Lowes
| Net Income: 103.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.68% < 20% (prev 5.88%; Δ -1.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 373.0m > Net Income 103.9m |
| Net Debt (2.29b) to EBITDA (465.7m): 4.93 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.22 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.0m) vs 12m ago 0.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.32% > 18% (prev 30.59%; Δ 1.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 119.9% > 50% (prev 124.5%; Δ -4.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 363.3m / Interest Expense TTM 112.6m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 863.0m - Total Current Liabilities 709.1m) / Total Assets 2.74b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 408.8m / Total Assets 2.74b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 363.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.74b) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -372.4m / Total Liabilities 3.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.62 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 135.4m/186.9m, Revenue 3.29b/3.41b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 30.59% / 32.32%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 3.29b / 3.41b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 103.9m - CFO 373.0m) / TA 2.74b) |
| Beneish M = -3.29 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 64.71 with a total of 999,599 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.97%, over one month by +28.09%, over three months by +5.41% and over the past year by +19.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 61.60 (which is 4.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Scotts Miracle-Gro has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMG.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74.7 | 15.4% |
P/E Trailing = 20.1152
P/E Forward = 16.4204
P/S = 1.1751
P/B = 21.9459
P/EG = 0.9496
Revenue TTM = 3.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 363.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 465.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.84b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 35.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 273.8m
Net Debt = 2.29b USD (calculated: Debt 2.30b - CCE 7.40m)
Enterprise Value = 6.16b USD (3.86b + Debt 2.30b - CCE 7.40m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.23 (Ebit TTM 363.3m / Interest Expense TTM 112.6m)
EV/FCF = 18.03x (Enterprise Value 6.16b / FCF TTM 341.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.55% (FCF TTM 341.5m / Enterprise Value 6.16b)
FCF Margin = 10.38% (FCF TTM 341.5m / Revenue TTM 3.29b)
Net Margin = 3.16% (Net Income TTM 103.9m / Revenue TTM 3.29b)
Gross Margin = 32.32% ((Revenue TTM 3.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.69% (prev 31.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.25 (Enterprise Value 6.16b / Total Assets 2.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.89% (Interest Expense 112.6m / Debt 2.30b)
Taxrate = 29.87% (83.0m / 277.9m)
NOPAT = 254.8m (EBIT 363.3m * (1 - 29.87%))
Current Ratio = 1.22 (Total Current Assets 863.0m / Total Current Liabilities 709.1m)
Debt / Equity = -6.18 (negative equity) (Debt 2.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -372.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.93 (Net Debt 2.29b / EBITDA 465.7m)
Debt / FCF = 6.72 (Net Debt 2.29b / FCF TTM 341.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -342.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.79% (Net Income 103.9m / Total Assets 2.74b)
RoE = -30.38% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 103.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -342.1m)
RoCE = 24.31% (EBIT 363.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -342.1m + L.T.Debt 1.84b))
RoIC = 12.36% (NOPAT 254.8m / Invested Capital 2.06b)
WACC = 5.82% (E(3.86b)/V(6.17b) * Re(7.24%) + D(2.30b)/V(6.17b) * Rd(4.89%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 7.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 56.22 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈314.5m ; Y1≈360.5m ; Y5≈530.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 97.73 (EV 7.98b - Net Debt 2.29b = Equity 5.69b / Shares 58.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 88.87 | EPS CAGR: 94.46% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -70.19 | Revenue CAGR: -1.80% | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.70 | Chg30d=+2.69% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.60 | Chg30d=-0.76% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.71 | Chg30d=-0.32% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+5.1% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2028-09-30): EPS=5.18 | Chg30d=+0.43% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+10.1% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -21% (up=6, down=10)