SMG Stock Analysis: Scotts Miracle-Gro | NYSE

Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.663m USD | 12M Return: 8.9% | US8101861065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Lawn Care, Garden Care, Hydroponics, Pest Control
Total Rating 50
Safety 69
Buy Signal -0.29
Agricultural Inputs
Industry Rotation: +6.1
Market Cap: 3.66B
Avg Turnover: 71.5M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility40.5%
VaR 5th Pctl6.54%
VaR vs Median-1.91%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Rel. Str. IBD36.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group59.1
Character TTM
Beta0.467
Beta Downside0.516
Hurst Exponent0.386
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD47.42%
CAGR/Max DD0.24
CAGR/Mean DD0.55
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SMG over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 3.98, "2021-09": -0.82, "2021-12": -0.88, "2022-03": 5.03, "2022-06": 1.98, "2022-09": -2.04, "2022-12": -1.02, "2023-03": 3.78, "2023-06": 1.17, "2023-09": -2.77, "2023-12": -1.45, "2024-03": 3.69, "2024-06": 2.31, "2024-09": -2.31, "2024-12": -0.89, "2025-03": 3.98, "2025-06": 2.59, "2025-09": -1.96, "2025-12": -0.77, "2026-03": 4.53, "2026-06": 2.82,
EPS CAGR: 98.16%
EPS Trend: 90.0%
Last SUE: 1.01
Qual. Beats: 3
Revenue Revenue of SMG over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1609.7, 2021-09: 737.8, 2021-12: 566, 2022-03: 1678.4, 2022-06: 1186.1, 2022-09: 493.7, 2022-12: 526.6, 2023-03: 1531.5, 2023-06: 1118.7, 2023-09: 374.5, 2023-12: 410.4, 2024-03: 1525.4, 2024-06: 1202.2, 2024-09: 414.7, 2024-12: 416.8, 2025-03: 1421, 2025-06: 1188, 2025-09: 387.4, 2025-12: 354.4, 2026-03: 1459.5, 2026-06: 1172.1,
Rev. CAGR: -1.55%
Rev. Trend: -67.3%
Last SUE: 0.07
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +4.1% 19
Feb -1.1% 15
Mar -1.7% 8
Apr -1.9% 8
May -0.1% 7
Jun -1.0% 15
Jul +3.8% 30
Aug -5.4% 30
Sep -2.4% 36
Oct -2.6% 12
Nov +6.8% 29
Dec +1.6% 14

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG) is a U.S.-based manufacturer and marketer of consumer lawn, garden, and indoor/hydroponic gardening products with operations in the United States and internationally. Its product portfolio spans lawn fertilizers, grass seed, spreaders, and weed/pest control products; gardening items such as potting mixes, soils, mulches, and organic plant foods; and hydroponic equipment including lighting systems and nutrients that enable soil-less cultivation.

The company sells through a wide retail network that includes home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, hardware chains, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, food and drug stores, and indoor gardening distributors. It markets products under numerous brands including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Roundup (licensed), AeroGarden, General Hydroponics, and Botanicare. Founded in 1868 and headquartered in Marysville, Ohio, SMG is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry.

The lawn and garden retail category is highly seasonal, with demand concentrated in the spring growing season, and the consumer hydroponics segment represents a structurally growing niche as interest in indoor and controlled-environment cultivation expands.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Hawthorne hydroponics segment revenue declines weigh on total growth
  • Housing turnover and spring weather drive consumer lawn care demand
  • Raw material and freight costs pressure gross margin recovery
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0
Net Income: 74.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.57 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 7.06% < 20% (prev 14.09%; Δ -7.02% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 369.3m > Net Income 74.0m
Net Debt (2.36b) to EBITDA (403.4m): 5.85 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.21 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (59.1m) vs 12m ago 0.85% < -2%
Gross Margin: 32.27% > 18% (prev 28.81%; Δ 3.46% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 107.8% > 50% (prev 111.3%; Δ -3.51% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 352.3m / Interest Expense TTM 113.3m)
Altman Z'' 1.61
A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 3.17b
B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 408.8m / Total Assets 3.17b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 352.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.13b)
D: -0.06 (Book Value of Equity -208.7m / Total Liabilities 3.38b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.61 = BB
Beneish M -2.95
DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 713.0m/573.8m, Revenue 3.37b/3.44b)
GMI: 0.89 (GM 28.81% / 32.27%)
AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.39)
SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 3.37b / 3.44b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 74.0m - CFO 369.3m) / TA 3.17b)
Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of SMG shares?

As of August 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.27 with a total of 933,125 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.64%, over one month by -4.90%, over three months by +4.90% and over the past year by +8.88%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 56.40 (which is 9.4% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is SMG a buy, sell or hold?

Scotts Miracle-Gro has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.36. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMG.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SMG price?
Analysts Target Price 77.2 23.9%
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 10 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.66b (3.66b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.2896
P/E Forward = 15.3846
P/S = 1.0514
P/B = 21.9459
P/EG = 0.8891
Revenue TTM = 3.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 352.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 403.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.05b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 277.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 273.8m
Net Debt = 2.36b USD (calculated: Debt 2.39b - CCE 27.7m)
Enterprise Value = 6.02b USD (3.66b + Debt 2.39b - CCE 27.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.11 (Ebit TTM 352.3m / Interest Expense TTM 113.3m)
EV/FCF = 81.05x (Enterprise Value 6.02b / FCF TTM 74.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.23% (FCF TTM 74.3m / Enterprise Value 6.02b)
FCF Margin = 2.20% (FCF TTM 74.3m / Revenue TTM 3.37b)
Net Margin = 2.19% (Net Income TTM 74.0m / Revenue TTM 3.37b)
Gross Margin = 32.27% ((Revenue TTM 3.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.22% (prev 41.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.90 (Enterprise Value 6.02b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.75% (Interest Expense 113.3m / Debt 2.39b)
Taxrate = 37.15% (98.9m / 266.2m)
NOPAT = 221.4m (EBIT 352.3m * (1 - 37.15%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
 Debt / Equity = -11.44 (negative equity) (Debt 2.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -208.7m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 5.85 (Net Debt 2.36b / EBITDA 403.4m)
Debt / FCF = 31.76 (Net Debt 2.36b / FCF TTM 74.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -338.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 74.0m / Total Assets 3.17b)
 RoE = -21.87% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 74.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -338.3m)
 RoCE = 20.59% (EBIT 352.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -338.3m + L.T.Debt 2.05b))
RoIC = 9.60% (NOPAT 221.4m / Invested Capital 2.31b)
WACC = 5.79% (E(3.66b)/V(6.05b) * Re(7.62%) + D(2.39b)/V(6.05b) * Rd(4.75%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.78 | Cagr: 1.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈142.4m ; Y1≈124.9m ; Y5≈100.9m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.62b - Net Debt 2.36b = -739.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: 90.05 | EPS CAGR: 98.16% | SUE: 1.01 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -67.27 | Revenue CAGR: -1.55% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.72 | Chg30d=+1.99% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.42 | Chg30d=+1.84% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+18.1% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.73 | Chg30d=+0.78% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)