SMG Stock Analysis: Scotts Miracle-Gro | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.941m USD | 12M Return: -9.8% | US8101861065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 57.7M
EPS Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: -67.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) manufactures and markets branded lawn, garden, and indoor and hydroponic gardening products. Its portfolio includes fertilizers, seeds, plant foods, soils, mulches, pest and weed controls, spreaders, lighting, and indoor-growing systems under brands including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Turf Builder, Ortho, and AeroGarden.
The company sells through home centers, mass merchandisers, hardware chains, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and specialist hydroponic channels. Classified in the Materials sector under Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, SMG follows a branded packaged-products model, with demand influenced by seasonal lawn and garden activity. Founded in 1868, it is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
- Hawthorne hydroponic segment revenue declines as cannabis demand softens
- Consumer lawn care spending pressured by elevated interest rates
- Retail channel concentration risk with Home Depot and Lowes
| Net Income: 74.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.06% < 20% (prev 14.09%; Δ -7.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 369.3m > Net Income 74.0m |
| Net Debt (2.36b) to EBITDA (403.4m): 5.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (59.1m) vs 12m ago 0.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.27% > 18% (prev 28.81%; Δ 3.46% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 107.8% > 50% (prev 111.3%; Δ -3.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 352.3m / Interest Expense TTM 113.3m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 408.8m / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 352.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.13b) |
| D: -0.06 (Book Value of Equity -208.7m / Total Liabilities 3.38b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.61 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 713.0m/573.8m, Revenue 3.37b/3.44b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 28.81% / 32.27%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 3.37b / 3.44b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 74.0m - CFO 369.3m) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.86 with a total of 957,306 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.71%, over one month by -12.37%, over three months by -22.75% and over the past year by -9.80%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 47.60 (which is 4.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Scotts Miracle-Gro has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74.2 | 48.8% |
P/E Trailing = 18.0429
P/E Forward = 12.8866
P/S = 0.8443
P/B = 21.9459
P/EG = 0.7445
Revenue TTM = 3.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 352.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 403.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.84b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 277.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 273.8m
Net Debt = 2.36b USD (calculated: Debt 2.39b - CCE 27.7m)
Enterprise Value = 5.30b USD (2.94b + Debt 2.39b - CCE 27.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.11 (Ebit TTM 352.3m / Interest Expense TTM 113.3m)
EV/FCF = 16.24x (Enterprise Value 5.30b / FCF TTM 326.4m)
FCF Yield = 6.16% (FCF TTM 326.4m / Enterprise Value 5.30b)
FCF Margin = 9.68% (FCF TTM 326.4m / Revenue TTM 3.37b)
Net Margin = 2.19% (Net Income TTM 74.0m / Revenue TTM 3.37b)
Gross Margin = 32.27% ((Revenue TTM 3.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.22% (prev 41.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.67 (Enterprise Value 5.30b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.75% (Interest Expense 113.3m / Debt 2.39b)
Taxrate = 37.15% (98.9m / 266.2m)
NOPAT = 221.4m (EBIT 352.3m * (1 - 37.15%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
Debt / Equity = -11.44 (negative equity) (Debt 2.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -208.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.85 (Net Debt 2.36b / EBITDA 403.4m)
Debt / FCF = 7.23 (Net Debt 2.36b / FCF TTM 326.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -338.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 74.0m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = -21.87% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 74.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -338.3m)
RoCE = 23.52% (EBIT 352.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -338.3m + L.T.Debt 1.84b))
RoIC = 9.60% (NOPAT 221.4m / Invested Capital 2.31b)
WACC = 5.46% (E(2.94b)/V(5.33b) * Re(7.47%) + D(2.39b)/V(5.33b) * Rd(4.75%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 7.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.78 | Cagr: 1.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈293.7m ; Y1≈336.7m ; Y5≈495.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.54 (EV 7.46b - Net Debt 2.36b = Equity 5.10b / Shares 58.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.05 | EPS CAGR: 98.16% | SUE: 1.01 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -67.27 | Revenue CAGR: -1.55% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.73 | Chg30d=-1.39% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.42 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+18.1% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.70 | Chg30d=-0.63% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+6.5% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +35% (up=12, down=5)