SOBO Stock Analysis: South Bow | NYSE
Oil & Gas Midstream | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.169m USD | 12M Return: 50% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 35.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -99.8%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
South Bow Corporation (NYSE: SOBO) is a Calgary-based energy infrastructure company that operates crude oil pipelines connecting Canadian oil sands production in Alberta to U.S. refining markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. The company is organized into three segments: the Keystone Pipeline System (its main long-haul crude oil pipeline network originating at Hardisty, Alberta), Marketing (crude oil marketing, logistics, trading, and hedging), and Intra-Alberta & Other (including the Grand Rapids and White Spruce pipelines, plus corporate and financing activities). South Bow also provides ancillary services such as storage at its terminals.
South Bow operates within the GICS Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation sub-industry, a capital-intensive sector focused on the midstream movement, storage, and marketing of crude oil. The company was incorporated in 2023 and completed its initial public offering on October 3, 2024, establishing itself as a mid-cap energy infrastructure issuer with a market capitalization of approximately $7.5 billion USD. Its business model is primarily fee-based pipeline transportation, supplemented by trading and marketing activities that generate revenue tied to crude oil price differentials.
- WCS-WTI spread volatility drives Keystone tariff revenue
- Cross-border permit risk threatens Keystone pipeline operations
- Capital allocation prioritizes debt reduction post TC Energy spin-off
| Net Income: 397.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.61 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 45.28% < 20% (prev 21.22%; Δ 24.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 783.3m > Net Income 397.1m |
| Net Debt (5.19b) to EBITDA (870.1m): 5.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.5m) vs 12m ago -0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.92% > 18% (prev 56.86%; Δ -18.94% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.47% > 50% (prev 19.40%; Δ -4.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 639.2m / Interest Expense TTM 308.4m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 2.18b - Total Current Liabilities 1.45b) / Total Assets 11.3b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -59.2m / Total Assets 11.3b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 639.2m / Avg Total Assets 11.2b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 2.67b / Total Liabilities 8.61b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.12 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 980.2m/1.15b, Revenue 1.62b/2.17b) |
| GMI: 1.50 (GM 56.86% / 37.92%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 0.75 (Revenue 1.62b / 2.17b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 397.1m - CFO 783.3m) / TA 11.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.77 with a total of 1,148,546 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.34%, over one month by +2.78%, over three months by +11.35% and over the past year by +49.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 34.60 (which is 5.9% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
South Bow has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 17.0149
P/E Forward = 20.0
P/S = 3.6226
P/B = 2.7004
Revenue TTM = 1.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 639.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 870.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.75b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 23.0m
Net Debt = 5.19b USD (calculated: Debt 5.79b - CCE 601.0m)
Enterprise Value = 12.4b USD (7.17b + Debt 5.79b - CCE 601.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.07 (Ebit TTM 639.2m / Interest Expense TTM 308.4m)
EV/FCF = 20.30x (Enterprise Value 12.4b / FCF TTM 609.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.93% (FCF TTM 609.0m / Enterprise Value 12.4b)
FCF Margin = 37.50% (FCF TTM 609.0m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Net Margin = 24.45% (Net Income TTM 397.1m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Gross Margin = 37.92% ((Revenue TTM 1.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.99% (prev 24.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 12.4b / Total Assets 11.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.32% (Interest Expense 308.4m / Debt 5.79b)
Taxrate = 12.65% (57.5m / 454.6m)
NOPAT = 558.3m (EBIT 639.2m * (1 - 12.65%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 2.18b / Total Current Liabilities 1.45b)
Debt / Equity = 2.17 (Debt 5.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.97 (Net Debt 5.19b / EBITDA 870.1m)
Debt / FCF = 8.53 (Net Debt 5.19b / FCF TTM 609.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.54% (Net Income 397.1m / Total Assets 11.3b)
RoE = 16.05% (Net Income TTM 397.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.47b)
RoCE = 7.77% (EBIT 639.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.47b + L.T.Debt 5.75b))
RoIC = 5.73% (NOPAT 558.3m / Invested Capital 9.75b)
WACC = 5.59% (E(7.17b)/V(13.0b) * Re(6.35%) + D(5.79b)/V(13.0b) * Rd(5.32%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 6.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.51 | Cagr: 0.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈534.7m ; Y1≈613.0m ; Y5≈902.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 40.19 (EV 13.6b - Net Debt 5.19b = Equity 8.38b / Shares 208.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -99.84 | Revenue CAGR: -22.15% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-0.66% | Revisions=+10% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-1.29% | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.75 | Chg30d=-0.60% | Revisions=+31% | GrowthEPS=-11.0% | GrowthRev=-1.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.96 | Chg30d=-0.35% | Revisions=-15% | GrowthEPS=+11.7% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -3% (up=17, down=18)