SPOT Stock Analysis: Spotify Technology | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 101.024m USD | 12M Return: -29% | LU1778762911 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 735M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) is a Sweden-based audio streaming company that operates globally through two main segments: Premium (subscription-based, ad-free access) and Ad-Supported (free, ad-funded tier with limited on-demand features). Its Premium offering spans music, podcasts, video, lossless audio, and audiobooks in select markets, while the Ad-Supported tier delivers on-demand music and full podcast access across computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also runs ancillary sales, distribution, marketing, and support services. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Stockholm, Spotify went public on the NYSE in April 2018 and is classified within the Communication Services sector.
As the worlds largest music streaming platform by subscriber count, Spotify operates a classic freemium model that converts free users to paid subscriptions while monetizing the free tier through advertising and sponsored content. Its dual revenue structure-recurring subscription fees supplemented by programmatic and host-read ad sales-provides both predictable recurring revenue and exposure to the cyclical digital advertising market.
- Premium subscriber growth and ARPU expansion drive revenue
- Ad-Supported margins improve as podcast investment moderates
- Apple Music and YouTube Music competition pressures subscriber share gains
| Net Income: 3.34b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.24 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.16% < 20% (prev 18.02%; Δ 12.14% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 > 3% & CFO 3.35b > Net Income 3.34b |
| Net Debt (-8.92b) to EBITDA (3.64b): -2.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.9m) vs 12m ago 1.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.80% > 18% (prev 31.63%; Δ 1.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 133.0% > 50% (prev 123.1%; Δ 9.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 104.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.54b / Interest Expense TTM 34.0m) |
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 10.4b - Total Current Liabilities 4.91b) / Total Assets 13.7b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 421.0m / Total Assets 13.7b) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 3.54b / Avg Total Assets 13.6b) |
| D: 1.56 (Book Value of Equity 8.38b / Total Liabilities 5.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.09 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 872.0m/820.6m, Revenue 18.1b/16.6b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 31.63% / 32.80%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 18.1b / 16.6b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 3.34b - CFO 3.35b) / TA 13.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 483.05 with a total of 1,232,359 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.91%, over one month by -8.62%, over three months by +0.01% and over the past year by -28.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 448.90 (which is 7.1% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Spotify Technology has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPOT.
- StrongBuy: 24
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 593.6 | 22.9% |
Market Cap EUR = 90.0b (101b USD * 0.89050000905991 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 26.9556
P/E Forward = 28.5714
P/S = 5.5774
P/B = 10.9158
P/EG = 1.4439
Revenue TTM = 18.1b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.54b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.64b EUR
Long Term Debt = 433.0m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 124.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 466.0m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 466.0m already included)
Net Debt = -8.92b EUR (calculated: Debt 466.0m - CCE 9.39b)
Enterprise Value = 81.0b EUR (90.0b + Debt 466.0m - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 104.0 (Ebit TTM 3.54b / Interest Expense TTM 34.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.70x (Enterprise Value 81.0b / FCF TTM 3.28b)
FCF Yield = 4.05% (FCF TTM 3.28b / Enterprise Value 81.0b)
FCF Margin = 18.11% (FCF TTM 3.28b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Net Margin = 18.43% (Net Income TTM 3.34b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Gross Margin = 32.80% ((Revenue TTM 18.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 32.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.89 (Enterprise Value 81.0b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.30% (Interest Expense 34.0m / Debt 466.0m)
Taxrate = 4.74% (166.0m / 3.50b)
NOPAT = 3.37b (EBIT 3.54b * (1 - 4.74%))
Current Ratio = 2.11 (Total Current Assets 10.4b / Total Current Liabilities 4.91b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 466.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.45 (Net Debt -8.92b / EBITDA 3.64b)
Debt / FCF = -2.72 (Net Debt -8.92b / FCF TTM 3.28b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 24.52% (Net Income 3.34b / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 41.09% (Net Income TTM 3.34b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.13b)
RoCE = 41.30% (EBIT 3.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.13b + L.T.Debt 433.0m))
RoIC = 41.82% (NOPAT 3.37b / Invested Capital 8.05b)
WACC = 7.56% (E(90.0b)/V(90.4b) * Re(7.56%) + D(466.0m)/V(90.4b) * Rd(7.30%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 7.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 60.91 | Cagr: 1.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈3.10b ; Y1≈3.55b ; Y5≈5.22b
[DCF] Fair Price = 425.8 (EV 78.6b - Net Debt -8.92b = Equity 87.5b / Shares 205.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.59 | Revenue CAGR: 13.42% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.85 | Chg30d=-0.40% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.25 | Chg30d=-0.34% | Revisions=-34% | GrowthEPS=+16.6% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.41 | Chg30d=-0.68% | Revisions=-4% | GrowthEPS=+25.7% | GrowthRev=+14.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -23% (up=25, down=41)