SPOT Stock Analysis: Spotify Technology | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 113.077m USD | 12M Return: -22.9% | LU1778762911 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 851M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) is a Sweden-based audio streaming subscription company that operates worldwide, structured around two revenue segments: a Premium tier offering full online and offline access to music, podcasts, video, lossless audio, and audiobooks, and an Ad-Supported tier providing limited on-demand access to music and full podcast access across computers, mobile, and smart devices. The company also provides ancillary sales, distribution, marketing, and support services. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Stockholm, Spotify listed on the NYSE on April 3, 2018, and is classified within the Communication Services sector (Movies & Entertainment sub-industry) as a large-cap stock.
- Premium subscriber net adds accelerate recurring revenue growth
- Ad-supported segment margin expansion as podcast costs normalize
- Competition from Apple Music and YouTube pressures pricing power
- Audiobook and video expansion open new monetization streams
| Net Income: 3.42b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.22% < 20% (prev 18.02%; Δ 15.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 3.47b > Net Income 3.42b |
| Net Debt (-9.73b) to EBITDA (3.75b): -2.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.9m) vs 12m ago 1.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.82% > 18% (prev 31.63%; Δ 1.20% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 128.7% > 50% (prev 123.1%; Δ 5.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 116.8 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.64b / Interest Expense TTM 31.1m) |
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 11.9b - Total Current Liabilities 5.62b) / Total Assets 15.7b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 481.2m / Total Assets 15.7b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 3.64b / Avg Total Assets 14.6b) |
| D: 1.56 (Book Value of Equity 9.58b / Total Liabilities 6.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.02 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 996.8m/820.6m, Revenue 18.8b/16.6b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 31.63% / 32.82%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 18.8b / 16.6b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 3.42b - CFO 3.47b) / TA 15.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 542.43 with a total of 1,368,292 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.93%, over one month by +13.44%, over three months by +9.90% and over the past year by -22.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 488.60 (which is 9.9% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Spotify Technology has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPOT.
- StrongBuy: 19
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 614.2 | 13.2% |
Market Cap EUR = 97.2b (113b USD * 0.8596 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 29.6193
P/E Forward = 38.9105
P/S = 5.9843
P/B = 11.5579
P/EG = 1.9679
Revenue TTM = 18.8b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.64b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.75b EUR
Long Term Debt = 433.0m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 70.9m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 998.7m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 466.0m
Net Debt = -9.73b EUR (calculated: Debt 998.7m - CCE 10.7b)
Enterprise Value = 87.5b EUR (97.2b + Debt 998.7m - CCE 10.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 116.8 (Ebit TTM 3.64b / Interest Expense TTM 31.1m)
EV/FCF = 25.77x (Enterprise Value 87.5b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
FCF Yield = 3.88% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Enterprise Value 87.5b)
FCF Margin = 18.06% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Revenue TTM 18.8b)
Net Margin = 18.18% (Net Income TTM 3.42b / Revenue TTM 18.8b)
Gross Margin = 32.82% ((Revenue TTM 18.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 32.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.57 (Enterprise Value 87.5b / Total Assets 15.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.12% (Interest Expense 31.1m / Debt 998.7m)
Taxrate = 5.29% (191.0m / 3.61b)
NOPAT = 3.45b (EBIT 3.64b * (1 - 5.29%))
Current Ratio = 2.11 (Total Current Assets 11.9b / Total Current Liabilities 5.62b)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 998.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.60 (Net Debt -9.73b / EBITDA 3.75b)
Debt / FCF = -2.87 (Net Debt -9.73b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.43b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.40% (Net Income 3.42b / Total Assets 15.7b)
RoE = 40.52% (Net Income TTM 3.42b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.43b)
RoCE = 41.05% (EBIT 3.64b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.43b + L.T.Debt 433.0m))
RoIC = 37.34% (NOPAT 3.45b / Invested Capital 9.23b)
WACC = 7.83% (E(97.2b)/V(98.2b) * Re(7.88%) + D(998.7m)/V(98.2b) * Rd(3.12%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 7.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 60.91 | Cagr: 1.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈3.16b ; Y1≈3.63b ; Y5≈5.34b
[DCF] Fair Price = 438.2 (EV 80.3b - Net Debt -9.73b = Equity 90.1b / Shares 205.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.87 | Revenue CAGR: 14.06% | SUE: 3.97 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=-3.80% | Revisions=-21% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.29 | Chg30d=-3.63% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+16.9% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.47 | Chg30d=-2.29% | Revisions=-23% | GrowthEPS=+25.9% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20% (up=23, down=35)