(SPOT) Spotify Technology - Overview
Stock: Audio Streaming, Premium Subscription, Ad-Supported Access, Podcasts, Music
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 62.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.18% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.79 |
| Alpha | -47.99 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.988 |
| Beta Downside | 1.043 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 46.80% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.08 |
Description: SPOT Spotify Technology January 28, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A. operates a global audio-streaming platform split into two core segments: Premium, a subscription-based service offering ad-free, offline-capable music and podcasts; and Ad-Supported, which delivers free, on-demand music and podcasts supported by display and audio ads. Both segments are delivered directly to end-users via web, mobile and desktop applications, while the company also monetises ancillary services such as distribution, marketing, and R&D support for content creators.
Recent performance metrics underscore the business’s growth trajectory: as of Q4 2023, Spotify reported 221 million monthly active users (MAUs) and 205 million paid subscribers, driving FY 2023 revenue to €11.72 billion-a 13 % year-over-year increase. Premium ARPU rose to €5.99 per month, while ad-supported ARPU grew 23 % YoY to €0.48, reflecting a rebound in digital advertising spend after a 2022 slowdown. A key sector driver is the expanding podcast ecosystem, which now accounts for roughly 30 % of total listening minutes and is attracting higher-margin advertising contracts.
Given the interplay of subscriber growth, ad-revenue recovery, and the strategic shift toward higher-margin podcast content, a deeper dive into Spotify’s valuation dynamics on platforms like ValueRay can help surface any mispricings before the next earnings cycle.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 1.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.67% < 20% (prev 19.17%; Δ 3.50% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 2.98b > Net Income 1.41b |
| Net Debt (-3.21b) to EBITDA (1.84b): -1.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (205.4m) vs 12m ago -0.95% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.75% > 18% (prev 0.29%; Δ 3146 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 133.7% > 50% (prev 143.2%; Δ -9.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 52.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM 33.0m) |
Altman Z'' 2.43
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 10.09b - Total Current Liabilities 6.26b) / Total Assets 14.74b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -2.01b / Total Assets 14.74b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 1.74b / Avg Total Assets 12.64b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 1.65b / Total Liabilities 6.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.43 = A |
Beneish M -3.17
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 854.7m/777.4m, Revenue 16.90b/15.10b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 31.75% / 28.71%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 16.90b / 15.10b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 1.41b - CFO 2.98b) / TA 14.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SPOT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -15.54%, over one month by -26.04%, over three months by -31.64% and over the past year by -32.48%.
Is SPOT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 19
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SPOT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 737.5 | 74.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 737.5 | 74.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 486.9 | 15.2% |
SPOT Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Trailing = 62.5211
P/E Forward = 37.3134
P/S = 6.1404
P/B = 11.2049
P/EG = 1.2717
Revenue TTM = 16.90b EUR
EBIT TTM = 1.74b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b EUR
Long Term Debt = 444.0m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.81b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.25b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -3.21b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 84.68b EUR (87.88b + Debt 2.25b - CCE 5.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 52.58 (Ebit TTM 1.74b / Interest Expense TTM 33.0m)
EV/FCF = 28.88x (Enterprise Value 84.68b / FCF TTM 2.93b)
FCF Yield = 3.46% (FCF TTM 2.93b / Enterprise Value 84.68b)
FCF Margin = 17.35% (FCF TTM 2.93b / Revenue TTM 16.90b)
Net Margin = 8.32% (Net Income TTM 1.41b / Revenue TTM 16.90b)
Gross Margin = 31.75% ((Revenue TTM 16.90b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.62% (prev 31.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.75 (Enterprise Value 84.68b / Total Assets 14.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.36% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 2.25b)
Taxrate = 15.14% (203.0m / 1.34b)
NOPAT = 1.47b (EBIT 1.74b * (1 - 15.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.61 (Total Current Assets 10.09b / Total Current Liabilities 6.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 2.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.74 (Net Debt -3.21b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = -1.09 (Net Debt -3.21b / FCF TTM 2.93b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.12% (Net Income 1.41b / Total Assets 14.74b)
RoE = 21.45% (Net Income TTM 1.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.55b)
RoCE = 24.80% (EBIT 1.74b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.55b + L.T.Debt 444.0m))
RoIC = 17.82% (NOPAT 1.47b / Invested Capital 8.26b)
WACC = 9.32% (E(87.88b)/V(90.13b) * Re(9.55%) + D(2.25b)/V(90.13b) * Rd(0.36%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 9.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 2.08%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.10% ; FCFF base≈2.48b ; Y1≈3.06b ; Y5≈5.21b
Fair Price DCF = 352.7 (EV 69.41b - Net Debt -3.21b = Equity 72.62b / Shares 205.9m; r=9.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 65.20 | EPS CAGR: 38.55% | SUE: 1.16 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.23 | Revenue CAGR: 13.14% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.64 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.23 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+63.5% | Growth Revenue=+14.4%