SPOT Stock Analysis: Spotify Technology | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 99.925m USD | 12M Return: -32.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 873M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) is a Sweden-based audio streaming subscription company that operates worldwide, structured around two revenue segments: a Premium tier offering full online and offline access to music, podcasts, video, lossless audio, and audiobooks, and an Ad-Supported tier providing limited on-demand access to music and full podcast access across computers, mobile, and smart devices. The company also provides ancillary sales, distribution, marketing, and support services. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Stockholm, Spotify listed on the NYSE on April 3, 2018, and is classified within the Communication Services sector (Movies & Entertainment sub-industry) as a large-cap stock.
- Premium subscriber net adds accelerate recurring revenue growth
- Ad-supported segment margin expansion as podcast costs normalize
- Competition from Apple Music and YouTube pressures pricing power
- Audiobook and video expansion open new monetization streams
| Net Income: 2.71b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.24 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.39% < 20% (prev 17.77%; Δ 10.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 3.24b > Net Income 2.71b |
| Net Debt (-8.28b) to EBITDA (2.96b): -2.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (209.3m) vs 12m ago -0.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.32% > 18% (prev 31.10%; Δ 1.22% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 135.9% > 50% (prev 128.2%; Δ 7.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 95.43 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.86b / Interest Expense TTM 30.0m) |
| A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 9.67b - Total Current Liabilities 4.69b) / Total Assets 13.1b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -124.1m / Total Assets 13.1b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 2.86b / Avg Total Assets 12.9b) |
| D: 1.57 (Book Value of Equity 8.02b / Total Liabilities 5.12b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.59 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 777.8m/793.4m, Revenue 17.5b/16.2b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 31.10% / 32.32%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 17.5b / 16.2b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 2.71b - CFO 3.24b) / TA 13.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 493.95 with a total of 2,065,509 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.85%, over one month by -1.82%, over three months by +2.23% and over the past year by -32.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 446.70 (which is 9.6% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Spotify Technology has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPOT.
- StrongBuy: 19
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 599 | 21.3% |
Market Cap EUR = 87.6b (99.9b USD * 0.8764 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 33.0817
P/E Forward = 32.6797
P/S = 5.7006
P/B = 10.6505
P/EG = 1.6321
Revenue TTM = 17.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.86b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 2.96b EUR
Long Term Debt = 433.0m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 62.1m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 476.5m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 476.0m already included)
Net Debt = -8.28b EUR (calculated: Debt 476.5m - CCE 8.76b)
Enterprise Value = 79.3b EUR (87.6b + Debt 476.5m - CCE 8.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 95.43 (Ebit TTM 2.86b / Interest Expense TTM 30.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.91x (Enterprise Value 79.3b / FCF TTM 3.18b)
FCF Yield = 4.01% (FCF TTM 3.18b / Enterprise Value 79.3b)
FCF Margin = 18.16% (FCF TTM 3.18b / Revenue TTM 17.5b)
Net Margin = 15.45% (Net Income TTM 2.71b / Revenue TTM 17.5b)
Gross Margin = 32.32% ((Revenue TTM 17.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.98% (prev 33.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.03 (Enterprise Value 79.3b / Total Assets 13.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.30% (Interest Expense 30.0m / Debt 476.5m)
Taxrate = 4.41% (125.0m / 2.83b)
NOPAT = 2.74b (EBIT 2.86b * (1 - 4.41%))
Current Ratio = 2.06 (Total Current Assets 9.67b / Total Current Liabilities 4.69b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 476.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.02b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.79 (Net Debt -8.28b / EBITDA 2.96b)
Debt / FCF = -2.60 (Net Debt -8.28b / FCF TTM 3.18b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.99% (Net Income 2.71b / Total Assets 13.1b)
RoE = 35.18% (Net Income TTM 2.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.70b)
RoCE = 35.22% (EBIT 2.86b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.70b + L.T.Debt 433.0m))
RoIC = 35.85% (NOPAT 2.74b / Invested Capital 7.63b)
WACC = 8.68% (E(87.6b)/V(88.1b) * Re(8.69%) + D(476.5m)/V(88.1b) * Rd(6.30%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.44 | Cagr: 2.95%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.92% ; FCFF base≈2.95b ; Y1≈3.39b ; Y5≈4.98b
[DCF] Fair Price = 385.3 (EV 71.0b - Net Debt -8.28b = Equity 79.2b / Shares 205.6m; r=8.68% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.85 | Revenue CAGR: 14.18% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.78 | Chg30d=-1.19% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=20
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.96 | Chg30d=-1.30% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.79 | Chg30d=-0.61% | Revisions=-15% | GrowthEPS=+21.7% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.88 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+24.2% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=8, down=27)