SPOT Stock Analysis: Spotify Technology | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 122.002m USD | 12M Return: -0.3% | LU1778762911 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 962M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) is a Sweden-based audio streaming company that operates globally through two main segments: Premium (subscription-based, ad-free access) and Ad-Supported (free, ad-funded tier with limited on-demand features). Its Premium offering spans music, podcasts, video, lossless audio, and audiobooks in select markets, while the Ad-Supported tier delivers on-demand music and full podcast access across computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also runs ancillary sales, distribution, marketing, and support services. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Stockholm, Spotify went public on the NYSE in April 2018 and is classified within the Communication Services sector.
As the worlds largest music streaming platform by subscriber count, Spotify operates a classic freemium model that converts free users to paid subscriptions while monetizing the free tier through advertising and sponsored content. Its dual revenue structure-recurring subscription fees supplemented by programmatic and host-read ad sales-provides both predictable recurring revenue and exposure to the cyclical digital advertising market.
- Premium subscriber growth and ARPU expansion drive revenue
- Ad-Supported margins improve as podcast investment moderates
- Apple Music and YouTube Music competition pressures subscriber share gains
| Net Income: 3.04b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.56% < 20% (prev 22.60%; Δ 10.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 3.31b > Net Income 3.04b |
| Net Debt (-10.3b) to EBITDA (3.59b): -2.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.6m) vs 12m ago -2.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.08% > 18% (prev 31.75%; Δ 1.33% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 126.4% > 50% (prev 115.0%; Δ 11.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 115.6 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.47b / Interest Expense TTM 30.1m) |
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 12.4b - Total Current Liabilities 5.82b) / Total Assets 16.3b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 16.3b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 3.47b / Avg Total Assets 15.5b) |
| D: 1.57 (Book Value of Equity 9.93b / Total Liabilities 6.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.03 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 982.5m/852.0m, Revenue 19.6b/16.9b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 31.75% / 33.08%) |
| AQI: 0.73 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 19.6b / 16.9b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 3.04b - CFO 3.31b) / TA 16.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 627.66 with a total of 2,814,620 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.58%, over one month by +29.94%, over three months by +31.26% and over the past year by -0.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 601.10 (which is 4.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Spotify Technology has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPOT.
- StrongBuy: 22
- Buy: 9
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 636.2 | 1.4% |
Market Cap EUR = 108b (122b USD * 0.88840001821518 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 36.1633
P/E Forward = 31.1526
P/S = 6.486
P/B = 11.7794
P/EG = 1.4469
Revenue TTM = 19.6b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.47b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.59b EUR
Long Term Debt = 433.0m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 69.3m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 965.4m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 452.0m
Net Debt = -10.3b EUR (calculated: Debt 965.4m - CCE 11.2b)
Enterprise Value = 98.1b EUR (108b + Debt 965.4m - CCE 11.2b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 115.6 (Ebit TTM 3.47b / Interest Expense TTM 30.1m)
EV/FCF = 30.17x (Enterprise Value 98.1b / FCF TTM 3.25b)
FCF Yield = 3.31% (FCF TTM 3.25b / Enterprise Value 98.1b)
FCF Margin = 16.63% (FCF TTM 3.25b / Revenue TTM 19.6b)
Net Margin = 15.52% (Net Income TTM 3.04b / Revenue TTM 19.6b)
Gross Margin = 33.08% ((Revenue TTM 19.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.88% (prev 33.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.04 (Enterprise Value 98.1b / Total Assets 16.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.11% (Interest Expense 30.1m / Debt 965.4m)
Taxrate = 12.99% (453.1m / 3.49b)
NOPAT = 3.02b (EBIT 3.47b * (1 - 12.99%))
Current Ratio = 2.13 (Total Current Assets 12.4b / Total Current Liabilities 5.82b)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 965.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.86 (Net Debt -10.3b / EBITDA 3.59b)
Debt / FCF = -3.16 (Net Debt -10.3b / FCF TTM 3.25b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.62% (Net Income 3.04b / Total Assets 16.3b)
RoE = 35.04% (Net Income TTM 3.04b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.66b)
RoCE = 38.18% (EBIT 3.47b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.66b + L.T.Debt 433.0m))
RoIC = 31.70% (NOPAT 3.02b / Invested Capital 9.53b)
WACC = 7.06% (E(108b)/V(109b) * Re(7.10%) + D(965.4m)/V(109b) * Rd(3.11%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 7.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 34.55 | Cagr: 0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.84% ; FCFF base≈3.12b ; Y1≈3.43b ; Y5≈4.36b
[DCF] Fair Price = 373.9 (EV 66.6b - Net Debt -10.3b = Equity 76.9b / Shares 205.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 11.58% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.65 | Revenue CAGR: 13.33% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=3.50 | Chg30d=-3.32% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.90 | Chg30d=-3.07% | Revisions=-75% | GrowthEPS=+13.2% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.27 | Chg30d=-0.96% | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=+28.4% | GrowthRev=+14.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -78% (up=1, down=19)