(SRFM) Surf Air Mobility - Overview
Stock: Commercial Flights, On-Demand Flights
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 146% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -20.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.16 |
| Alpha | -81.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.423 |
| Beta Downside | 1.755 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 95.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.63 |
Description: SRFM Surf Air Mobility January 02, 2026
Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM) operates a U.S.-based air-mobility platform that offers both scheduled commercial flights and on-demand, point-to-point services. Founded in 2011 and headquartered in Hawthorne, California, the company positions itself as a hybrid airline that can flexibly match capacity to customer demand.
Key operational metrics as of the most recent filing (Q4 2024) show a revenue run-rate of roughly **$45 million** for the trailing twelve months, with a **cash balance of $120 million** and a monthly burn of about **$10 million**. The fleet consists of **12 turboprop aircraft** (primarily the Pilatus PC-12) and a pending order for **10 Airbus-backed eVTOL prototypes**, reflecting the broader industry shift toward electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) solutions. Primary economic drivers include: (1) the **regional jet capacity gap** caused by airline retirements of 50-seat aircraft; (2) **business-travel rebound** post-COVID, which fuels demand for time-critical, point-to-point connectivity; and (3) **regulatory timelines** for eVTOL certification, where a delay could materially affect the company’s growth runway.
If you want a data-rich, independent view of Surf Air’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboards may help surface the most material assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -72.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.79 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -26.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -61.13% < 20% (prev -100.6%; Δ 39.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.65 > 3% & CFO -69.4m > Net Income -72.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (20.9m) vs 12m ago 61.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 3.08% > 18% (prev 0.02%; Δ 305.7% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 105.7% > 50% (prev 120.8%; Δ -15.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -49.7m / Interest Expense TTM 13.9m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 22.0m - Total Current Liabilities 88.1m) / Total Assets 106.8m |
| B: -7.03 (Retained Earnings -751.1m / Total Assets 106.8m) |
| C: -0.58 (EBIT TTM -58.9m / Avg Total Assets 102.3m) |
| D: -3.77 (Book Value of Equity -751.1m / Total Liabilities 199.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -34.82 = D |
Beneish M -3.20
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 5.04m/4.36m, Revenue 108.2m/118.2m) |
| GMI: 0.78 (GM 3.08% / 2.41%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 108.2m / 118.2m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -72.4m - CFO -69.4m) / TA 106.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SRFM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.94%, over one month by -33.75%, over three months by -31.85% and over the past year by -58.12%.
Is SRFM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SRFM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.8 | 262.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.8 | 262.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.8 | -15% |
SRFM Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/B = 2.862
Revenue TTM = 108.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -58.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -49.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 67.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.63m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 156.3m USD (139.7m + Debt 23.6m - CCE 7.06m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.25 (Ebit TTM -58.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.9m)
EV/FCF = -1.86x (Enterprise Value 156.3m / FCF TTM -83.9m)
FCF Yield = -53.68% (FCF TTM -83.9m / Enterprise Value 156.3m)
FCF Margin = -77.57% (FCF TTM -83.9m / Revenue TTM 108.2m)
Net Margin = -66.95% (Net Income TTM -72.4m / Revenue TTM 108.2m)
Gross Margin = 3.08% ((Revenue TTM 108.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 104.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.18% (prev 12.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.46 (Enterprise Value 156.3m / Total Assets 106.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.78% (Interest Expense 3.25m / Debt 23.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -46.5m (EBIT -58.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 22.0m / Total Current Liabilities 88.1m)
Debt / Equity = -0.26 (negative equity) (Debt 23.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -92.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 16.6m / EBITDA -49.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 16.6m / FCF TTM -83.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -115.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -70.76% (Net Income -72.4m / Total Assets 106.8m)
RoE = 62.47% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -72.4m / Total Stockholder Equity -115.9m)
RoCE = 122.4% (negative capital employed) (EBIT -58.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -115.9m + L.T.Debt 67.8m))
RoIC = 114.5% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -46.5m / Invested Capital -40.6m)
WACC = 14.27% (E(139.7m)/V(163.3m) * Re(14.84%) + D(23.6m)/V(163.3m) * Rd(13.78%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 38.62%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -83.9m)
EPS Correlation: 59.62 | EPS CAGR: 7.18% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.74 | Revenue CAGR: 67.28% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.29 | Chg30d=+0.305 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.15 | Chg30d=+1.420 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+66.4% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%