STWD Stock Analysis: Starwood Property Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.318m USD | 12M Return: -10.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 57.3M
EPS Trend: -79.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -45.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE: STWD) is a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) operating across the United States and internationally through four business segments: Commercial and Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing and Servicing. The Commercial and Residential Lending segment is the broadest, covering first mortgages, non-agency residential mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, CMBS, RMBS, and distressed debt. The Infrastructure Lending segment extends the platform beyond traditional real estate into infrastructure debt, while the Property segment invests directly in stabilized and to-be-stabilized commercial assets such as multifamily, medical office, and triple-net lease properties. The Investing and Servicing segment focuses on workout and servicing of problem assets, CMBS acquisition, conduit loan origination for securitization, and opportunistic real estate acquisitions from CMBS trusts.
As a mortgage REIT under the GICS Financials classification, Starwood Property Trust operates primarily through debt and credit-oriented real estate investments rather than direct property ownership, distinguishing it from equity REITs. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes, which exempts it from corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders. Incorporated in 2009 and headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida, STWD is among the larger publicly traded diversified mortgage REITs in the U.S. market.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts short-term rates
- Commercial real estate loan loss provisions rise on office sector distress
- Conduit loan origination volumes grow on stronger CMBS issuance market
| Net Income: 351.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -520.0% < 20% (prev 2.55%; Δ -522.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 832.5m > Net Income 351.2m |
| Net Debt (22.8b) to EBITDA (1.83b): 12.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (337.1m) vs 12m ago -0.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.18% > 18% (prev 84.53%; Δ -5.34% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.20% > 50% (prev 2.97%; Δ 0.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.31b) |
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 930.2m - Total Current Liabilities 11.3b) / Total Assets 62.1b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -165.9m / Total Assets 62.1b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 1.73b / Avg Total Assets 62.1b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 6.67b / Total Liabilities 54.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.78 = CCC |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.38 with a total of 4,638,773 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.18%, over one month by +0.03%, over three months by -1.61% and over the past year by -10.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.90 (which is 2.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Starwood Property Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.88. Therefore, it is recommended to buy STWD.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.3 | 23.6% |
P/E Trailing = 17.4842
P/E Forward = 9.7371
P/S = 10.8767
P/B = 0.9239
P/EG = 1.7352
Revenue TTM = 1.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.73b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.83b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.1b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.0b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.8b USD (calculated: Debt 23.1b - CCE 377.0m)
Enterprise Value = 29.1b USD (6.32b + Debt 23.1b - CCE 377.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.31 (Ebit TTM 1.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.31b)
EV/FCF = 60.17x (Enterprise Value 29.1b / FCF TTM 483.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.66% (FCF TTM 483.3m / Enterprise Value 29.1b)
FCF Margin = 24.34% (FCF TTM 483.3m / Revenue TTM 1.99b)
Net Margin = 17.69% (Net Income TTM 351.2m / Revenue TTM 1.99b)
Gross Margin = 79.18% ((Revenue TTM 1.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 413.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.22% (prev 76.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 29.1b / Total Assets 62.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.68% (Interest Expense 1.31b / Debt 23.1b)
Taxrate = 7.02% (29.0m / 413.4m)
NOPAT = 1.61b (EBIT 1.73b * (1 - 7.02%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 930.2m / Total Current Liabilities 11.3b)
Debt / Equity = 3.47 (Debt 23.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.43 (Net Debt 22.8b / EBITDA 1.83b)
Debt / FCF = 47.10 (Net Debt 22.8b / FCF TTM 483.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.57% (Net Income 351.2m / Total Assets 62.1b)
RoE = 5.25% (Net Income TTM 351.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 6.69b)
RoCE = 9.19% (EBIT 1.73b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.69b + L.T.Debt 12.1b))
RoIC = 2.60% (NOPAT 1.61b / Invested Capital 61.8b)
WACC = 5.80% (E(6.32b)/V(29.5b) * Re(7.71%) + D(23.1b)/V(29.5b) * Rd(5.68%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 43.53 | Cagr: 3.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈610.5m ; Y1≈535.4m ; Y5≈432.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 6.94b - Net Debt 22.8b = -15.8b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -79.88 | EPS CAGR: -8.08% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -45.43 | Revenue CAGR: -3.18% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-3.11% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.71 | Chg30d=-1.38% | Revisions=-60% | GrowthEPS=+1.2% | GrowthRev=+15.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=-1.10% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+11.6% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -60%