Overview Dividends

(SW) Smurfit WestRock - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Ireland • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: IE00028FXN24

Containerboard, Corrugated Boxes, Folding Cartons, Kraft Paper, Bag-In-Box

Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Market Cap in USD: 20,679m

IPO / Inception: 2024-07-08
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -32.1%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 145.57%
EPS Trend: 81.0%

Last SUE: -0.18
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 28.81%
Rev. Trend: 70.1%

Last SUE: 0.03
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	4.21%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.22%
Yield CAGR 5y	5.72%
Payout Consistency	95.7%
Payout Ratio	77.0%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	109%
Value at Risk 5%th	69.0%
Relative Tail Risk	-61.58%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.43
Alpha	-43.69
CAGR/Max DD	0.12

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.441
Beta	1.222
Beta Downside	1.254

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	39.78%
Mean DD	14.59%
Median DD	14.12%

Description: SW Smurfit WestRock December 19, 2025

Smurfit WestRock Plc (NYSE: SW) manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of paper-based packaging, including containerboard, corrugated containers, solid board, kraft paper, graphic board, paper sacks, and bag-in-box solutions, plus related packaging machinery.

The company serves food & beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice customers across 40 countries, leveraging its global footprint to meet regional demand and logistics requirements.

Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached $10.6 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ≈ 9.5%; the firm recycled ≈ 71 % of its paper input, reflecting its sustainability focus, and it allocated roughly $900 million to capital expenditures to expand high-speed converting lines.

Primary economic drivers include pulp price volatility, freight cost fluctuations, and tightening environmental regulations that push customers toward recyclable, lightweight packaging-a trend that has supported a compound annual growth rate of ≈ 12 % in e-commerce-driven packaging volumes.

Sector-wide, the shift toward circular packaging and stricter EU packaging directives are accelerating demand for recycled and renewable paper solutions, positioning Smurfit WestRock to capture incremental market share if it can maintain cost discipline.

For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides granular financial and ESG metrics that can help you model SW’s upside potential.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0

Net Income (718.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.75b TTM)

FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 12.16% (prev 22.84%; Δ -10.68pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.95b > Net Income 718.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (13.26b) to EBITDA (4.07b) ratio: 3.26 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.48 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (523.4m) change vs 12m ago 3.03% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 18.85% (prev 22.42%; Δ -3.57pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 64.24% (prev 33.24%; Δ 30.99pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 2.41 (EBITDA TTM 4.07b / Interest Expense TTM 728.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.06

(A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 10.88b - Total Current Liabilities 7.34b) / Total Assets 45.57b

(B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.79b / Total Assets 45.57b

(D) 0.09 = Book Value of Equity 2.44b / Total Liabilities 27.11b

Total Rating: 1.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.36

1. Piotroski 4.0pt

2. FCF Yield 2.36%

3. FCF Margin 2.76%

4. Debt/Equity 0.77

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.26

6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.62)%

7. RoE 3.99%

8. Rev. Trend 70.07%

9. EPS Trend 81.05%

What is the price of SW shares?

As of January 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.95 with a total of 5,145,948 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.43%, over one month by +13.56%, over three months by +2.85% and over the past year by -20.15%.

Is SW a buy, sell or hold?

Smurfit WestRock has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SW.

Strong Buy: 8
Buy: 5
Hold: 5
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SW price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	53.3	30.2%
Analysts Target Price	53.3	30.2%
ValueRay Target Price	41.9	2.2%

SW Fundamental Data Overview January 06, 2026

Market Cap USD = 20.68b (20.68b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 27.1233
P/E Forward = 13.245
P/S = 0.6641
P/B = 1.1218
P/EG = 0.277
Beta = 1.007
Revenue TTM = 29.10b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 798.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.26b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 33.94b USD (20.68b + Debt 14.11b - CCE 851.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.41 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 728.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.36% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Enterprise Value 33.94b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Net Margin = 2.47% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Gross Margin = 18.85% ((Revenue TTM 29.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.61% (prev 19.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 33.94b / Total Assets 45.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.23% (Interest Expense 174.2m / Debt 14.11b)
Taxrate = 27.08% (91.0m / 336.0m)
NOPAT = 1.28b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 27.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 10.88b / Total Current Liabilities 7.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 14.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.26 (Net Debt 13.26b / EBITDA 4.07b)
Debt / FCF = 16.54 (Net Debt 13.26b / FCF TTM 801.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.58% (Net Income 718.1m / Total Assets 45.57b)
RoE = 3.99% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.99b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.99b + L.T.Debt 13.31b))
RoIC = 4.00% (NOPAT 1.28b / Invested Capital 32.06b)
WACC = 6.62% (E(20.68b)/V(34.79b) * Re(10.52%) + D(14.11b)/V(34.79b) * Rd(1.23%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 42.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.07% ; FCFE base≈613.1m ; Y1≈623.4m ; Y5≈683.7m
Fair Price DCF = 15.52 (DCF Value 8.11b / Shares Outstanding 522.2m; 5y FCF grow 1.41% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 81.05 | EPS CAGR: 145.6% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 70.07 | Revenue CAGR: 28.81% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.25 | Chg30d=-0.097 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=+31.6% | Growth Revenue=+2.9%

Additional Sources for SW Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle