SW Stock Analysis: Smurfit WestRock | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 21.658m USD | 12M Return: -0.2% | IE00028FXN24 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 188M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Smurfit Westrock Plc is a global paper-based packaging manufacturer that produces and distributes containerboard, corrugated containers, paperboard, and related products including folding cartons, kraft paper, graphic board, paper sacks, and bag-in-box solutions. The company operates across North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia, serving end markets such as food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice. Products are sold through a combination of direct sales, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Founded in 1934, the company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Operating within the Materials sector and classified under Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Smurfit Westrocks business model centers on producing essential upstream materials (linerboard and corrugated medium) and converting them into finished packaging solutions used throughout the global supply chain. Its broad geographic footprint and diversified end-market exposure position it as a vertically integrated player across the packaging value chain.
- Containerboard prices decline on weak demand
- Merger synergies target $400M in cost savings
- Recycled fiber costs pressure packaging margins
| Net Income: 487.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.02% < 20% (prev 11.38%; Δ -0.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 3.30b > Net Income 487.5m |
| Net Debt (13.5b) to EBITDA (4.27b): 3.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (523.5m) vs 12m ago 0.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.98% > 18% (prev 19.09%; Δ -1.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 66.66% > 50% (prev 65.06%; Δ 1.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.87 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.53b / Interest Expense TTM 814.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 10.8b - Total Current Liabilities 7.48b) / Total Assets 45.2b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 2.24b / Total Assets 45.2b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 1.53b / Avg Total Assets 45.5b) |
| D: 0.66 (Book Value of Equity 18.0b / Total Liabilities 27.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.57 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 4.92b/5.03b, Revenue 30.3b/29.8b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 19.09% / 17.98%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 30.3b / 29.8b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 487.5m - CFO 3.30b) / TA 45.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.45 with a total of 5,178,766 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.69%, over one month by -6.35%, over three months by -0.60% and over the past year by -0.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.70 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Smurfit WestRock has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.71. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SW.
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 56.7 | 36.8% |
P/E Trailing = 43.4632
P/E Forward = 13.7931
P/S = 0.6914
P/B = 1.3509
P/EG = 0.277
Revenue TTM = 30.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.27b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 931.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.5b USD (calculated: Debt 14.2b - CCE 677.0m)
Enterprise Value = 35.1b USD (21.7b + Debt 14.2b - CCE 677.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.87 (Ebit TTM 1.53b / Interest Expense TTM 814.0m)
EV/FCF = 34.63x (Enterprise Value 35.1b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
FCF Yield = 2.89% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Enterprise Value 35.1b)
FCF Margin = 3.35% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Revenue TTM 30.3b)
Net Margin = 1.61% (Net Income TTM 487.5m / Revenue TTM 30.3b)
Gross Margin = 17.98% ((Revenue TTM 30.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 24.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.42% (prev 16.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.78 (Enterprise Value 35.1b / Total Assets 45.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.75% (Interest Expense 814.0m / Debt 14.2b)
Taxrate = 31.78% (226.2m / 712.0m)
NOPAT = 1.04b (EBIT 1.53b * (1 - 31.78%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 10.8b / Total Current Liabilities 7.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.79 (Debt 14.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.16 (Net Debt 13.5b / EBITDA 4.27b)
Debt / FCF = 13.29 (Net Debt 13.5b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.07% (Net Income 487.5m / Total Assets 45.2b)
RoE = 2.68% (Net Income TTM 487.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 18.2b)
RoCE = 4.85% (EBIT 1.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.2b + L.T.Debt 13.2b))
RoIC = 2.74% (NOPAT 1.04b / Invested Capital 38.0b)
WACC = 7.54% (E(21.7b)/V(35.8b) * Re(9.90%) + D(14.2b)/V(35.8b) * Rd(5.75%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 9.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 77.30 | Cagr: 36.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈643.7m ; Y1≈737.9m ; Y5≈1.09b
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.45 (EV 16.3b - Net Debt 13.5b = Equity 2.86b / Shares 524.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.85 | Revenue CAGR: 61.11% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=-0.31% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.75 | Chg30d=-6.28% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+31.7% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.43 | Chg30d=+0.94% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+64.0% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)