(SW) Smurfit WestRock - Ratings and Ratios
Containerboard, Corrugated Boxes, Folding Cartons, Kraft Paper, Bag-In-Box
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.99% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.24% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.72% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.7% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 159% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -73.17% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.41 |
| Alpha | -38.88 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.446 |
| Beta | 1.250 |
| Beta Downside | 1.301 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.78% |
| Mean DD | 14.98% |
| Median DD | 14.92% |
Description: SW Smurfit WestRock December 19, 2025
Smurfit WestRock Plc (NYSE: SW) manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of paper-based packaging, including containerboard, corrugated containers, solid board, kraft paper, graphic board, paper sacks, and bag-in-box solutions, plus related packaging machinery.
The company serves food & beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice customers across 40 countries, leveraging its global footprint to meet regional demand and logistics requirements.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached $10.6 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ≈ 9.5%; the firm recycled ≈ 71 % of its paper input, reflecting its sustainability focus, and it allocated roughly $900 million to capital expenditures to expand high-speed converting lines.
Primary economic drivers include pulp price volatility, freight cost fluctuations, and tightening environmental regulations that push customers toward recyclable, lightweight packaging-a trend that has supported a compound annual growth rate of ≈ 12 % in e-commerce-driven packaging volumes.
Sector-wide, the shift toward circular packaging and stricter EU packaging directives are accelerating demand for recycled and renewable paper solutions, positioning Smurfit WestRock to capture incremental market share if it can maintain cost discipline.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides granular financial and ESG metrics that can help you model SW’s upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 718.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.16% < 20% (prev 22.84%; Δ -10.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 2.95b > Net Income 718.1m |
| Net Debt (13.26b) to EBITDA (4.07b): 3.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (523.4m) vs 12m ago 3.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.85% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 1863 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.24% > 50% (prev 33.24%; Δ 30.99% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.41 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.07b / Interest Expense TTM 728.9m) |
Altman Z'' 1.06
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 10.88b - Total Current Liabilities 7.34b) / Total Assets 45.57b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 2.79b / Total Assets 45.57b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 45.30b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 2.44b / Total Liabilities 27.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.06 = BB |
Beneish M -2.59
| DSRI: 0.54 (Receivables 4.85b/4.61b, Revenue 29.10b/14.97b) |
| GMI: 1.19 (GM 18.85% / 22.42%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.94 (Revenue 29.10b / 14.97b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 718.1m - CFO 2.95b) / TA 45.57b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.59 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 53.95
| 1. Piotroski: 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 2.22% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 2.76% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.77 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 3.26 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: -2.85% |
| 7. RoE: 3.99% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 70.07% |
| 9. EPS Trend: data missing |
What is the price of SW shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.91%, over one month by +11.07%, over three months by +0.22% and over the past year by -18.57%.
Is SW a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SW price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 52.8 | 23% |
| Analysts Target Price | 52.8 | 23% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 44.1 | 2.7% |
SW Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.6199
P/S = 0.7345
P/B = 1.2408
P/EG = 0.277
Revenue TTM = 29.10b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 798.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.26b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 36.13b USD (22.87b + Debt 14.11b - CCE 851.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.41 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 728.9m)
EV/FCF = 45.06x (Enterprise Value 36.13b / FCF TTM 801.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.22% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Enterprise Value 36.13b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Net Margin = 2.47% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Gross Margin = 18.85% ((Revenue TTM 29.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.61% (prev 19.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.79 (Enterprise Value 36.13b / Total Assets 45.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.23% (Interest Expense 174.2m / Debt 14.11b)
Taxrate = 27.08% (91.0m / 336.0m)
NOPAT = 1.28b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 27.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 10.88b / Total Current Liabilities 7.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 14.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.26 (Net Debt 13.26b / EBITDA 4.07b)
Debt / FCF = 16.54 (Net Debt 13.26b / FCF TTM 801.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.59% (Net Income 718.1m / Total Assets 45.57b)
RoE = 3.99% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.99b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.99b + L.T.Debt 13.31b))
RoIC = 4.00% (NOPAT 1.28b / Invested Capital 32.06b)
WACC = 6.85% (E(22.87b)/V(36.98b) * Re(10.52%) + D(14.11b)/V(36.98b) * Rd(1.23%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow 801.9m)
Revenue Correlation: 70.07 | Revenue CAGR: 28.81% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for SW Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle