(SW) Smurfit WestRock - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: Ireland •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: IE00028FXN24
Containerboard, Corrugated Boxes, Folding Cartons, Paperboard, Kraft Paper
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.78% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.74% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -3.52% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 77.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 158% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -72.97% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.87 |
| Alpha | -49.50 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.460 |
| Beta | 1.230 |
| Beta Downside | 1.236 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.78% |
| Mean DD | 13.84% |
| Median DD | 13.81% |
Description: SW Smurfit WestRock October 16, 2025
Smurfit WestRock Plc (NYSE: SW) is a Dublin-based, vertically integrated producer of containerboard and paper-based packaging, supplying linerboard, corrugated medium, solid board, kraft paper, graphic board, paper sacks, bag-in-box, and related machinery to food & beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and food-service customers across roughly 40 countries.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show revenue of ≈ $10.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~ 12%, reflecting strong pricing power in the North American corrugated market where e-commerce volumes have been growing at ~10% YoY. The company’s recycling-content ratio sits near 55% of total production, a sector-wide advantage as regulatory pressure on virgin pulp intensifies. However, exposure to cyclical construction demand-particularly in the U.S. housing market, which historically accounts for ~30% of its linerboard sales-adds downside risk if the sector slows.
For a deeper quantitative view of SW’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a granular, data-driven dashboard worth checking out.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (718.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.75b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 12.16% (prev 22.84%; Δ -10.68pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.95b > Net Income 718.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (13.26b) to EBITDA (4.07b) ratio: 3.26 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.48 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (523.4m) change vs 12m ago 3.03% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 18.85% (prev 22.42%; Δ -3.57pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 64.24% (prev 33.24%; Δ 30.99pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.40 (EBITDA TTM 4.07b / Interest Expense TTM 731.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.06
| (A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 10.88b - Total Current Liabilities 7.34b) / Total Assets 45.57b |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.79b / Total Assets 45.57b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 45.30b |
| (D) 0.09 = Book Value of Equity 2.44b / Total Liabilities 27.11b |
| Total Rating: 1.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 58.77
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.54% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.76% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.77 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.26 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.35)% |
| 7. RoE 3.99% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 83.10% |
| 9. EPS Trend 81.05% |
What is the price of SW shares?
As of December 06, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 36.04 with a total of 4,751,063 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.98%, over one month by +1.22%, over three months by -22.22% and over the past year by -31.55%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.98%, over one month by +1.22%, over three months by -22.22% and over the past year by -31.55%.
Is SW a buy, sell or hold?
Smurfit WestRock has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy SW.
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SW price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 53.8 | 49.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 53.8 | 49.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 36.3 | 0.7% |
SW Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
Market Cap USD = 18.26b (18.26b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.9452
P/E Forward = 11.0132
P/S = 0.5863
P/B = 0.955
P/EG = 0.277
Beta = 1.005
Revenue TTM = 29.10b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 798.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.26b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 31.52b USD (18.26b + Debt 14.11b - CCE 851.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.40 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 731.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.54% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Enterprise Value 31.52b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Net Margin = 2.47% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Gross Margin = 18.85% ((Revenue TTM 29.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.61% (prev 19.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 31.52b / Total Assets 45.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 177.0m / Debt 14.11b)
Taxrate = 27.08% (91.0m / 336.0m)
NOPAT = 1.28b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 27.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 10.88b / Total Current Liabilities 7.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 14.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.26 (Net Debt 13.26b / EBITDA 4.07b)
Debt / FCF = 16.54 (Net Debt 13.26b / FCF TTM 801.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.58% (Net Income 718.1m / Total Assets 45.57b)
RoE = 3.99% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.99b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.99b + L.T.Debt 13.31b))
RoIC = 4.00% (NOPAT 1.28b / Invested Capital 32.06b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(18.26b)/V(32.37b) * Re(10.55%) + D(14.11b)/V(32.37b) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 42.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.09% ; FCFE base≈613.1m ; Y1≈403.0m ; Y5≈184.7m
Fair Price DCF = 4.86 (DCF Value 2.54b / Shares Outstanding 522.2m; 5y FCF grow -39.92% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 81.05 | EPS CAGR: 145.6% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.10 | Revenue CAGR: 45.32% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=-0.185 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+35.4% | Growth Revenue=+3.1%
P/E Trailing = 23.9452
P/E Forward = 11.0132
P/S = 0.5863
P/B = 0.955
P/EG = 0.277
Beta = 1.005
Revenue TTM = 29.10b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 798.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.26b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 31.52b USD (18.26b + Debt 14.11b - CCE 851.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.40 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM 731.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.54% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Enterprise Value 31.52b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 801.9m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Net Margin = 2.47% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Revenue TTM 29.10b)
Gross Margin = 18.85% ((Revenue TTM 29.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.61% (prev 19.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 31.52b / Total Assets 45.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 177.0m / Debt 14.11b)
Taxrate = 27.08% (91.0m / 336.0m)
NOPAT = 1.28b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 27.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 10.88b / Total Current Liabilities 7.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 14.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.26 (Net Debt 13.26b / EBITDA 4.07b)
Debt / FCF = 16.54 (Net Debt 13.26b / FCF TTM 801.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.58% (Net Income 718.1m / Total Assets 45.57b)
RoE = 3.99% (Net Income TTM 718.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.99b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.99b + L.T.Debt 13.31b))
RoIC = 4.00% (NOPAT 1.28b / Invested Capital 32.06b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(18.26b)/V(32.37b) * Re(10.55%) + D(14.11b)/V(32.37b) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 42.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.09% ; FCFE base≈613.1m ; Y1≈403.0m ; Y5≈184.7m
Fair Price DCF = 4.86 (DCF Value 2.54b / Shares Outstanding 522.2m; 5y FCF grow -39.92% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 81.05 | EPS CAGR: 145.6% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.10 | Revenue CAGR: 45.32% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=-0.185 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+35.4% | Growth Revenue=+3.1%
Additional Sources for SW Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle