(TAC) TransAlta - NYSE
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 4.231m USD | Total Return: 20% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 22.2M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -98.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (6.2) with thin interest coverage (0.4)
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.4 is critical
Altman Z'' -1.05 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) is a Calgary-based power generation firm operating a diversified portfolio across hydro, wind, solar, and natural gas assets. The company manages a total generating capacity exceeding 8,000 megawatts with operations spanning Canada, the United States, and Australia. Its business model integrates physical power production with an energy marketing segment focused on trading electricity, natural gas, and environmental products.
The company operates within the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders sub-industry, a sector characterized by high capital intensity and long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) that provide revenue stability. TransAlta is currently navigating an energy transition strategy, decommissioning or converting coal-fired assets to natural gas and expanding its renewable footprint to align with decarbonization trends. Investors can evaluate the companys valuation metrics and dividend history on ValueRay to better understand its market position. This shift toward renewables often allows utilities to access lower-cost capital through green financing frameworks.
- Alberta power price volatility significantly impacts merchant revenue and profit margins
- Capital allocation toward renewable growth projects drives long-term valuation shifts
- Energy marketing segment margins fluctuate based on natural gas price spreads
- Regulatory changes to Alberta’s electricity market design affect future earnings stability
- Decarbonization goals accelerate the retirement of coal and transition to gas-fired assets
| Net Income: -170.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -19.57% < 20% (prev -12.27%; Δ -7.30% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 766.1m > Net Income -170.9m |
| Net Debt (4.29b) to EBITDA (693.4m): 6.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (297.0m) vs 12m ago -0.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.20% > 18% (prev 61.82%; Δ -21.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 24.20% > 50% (prev 28.01%; Δ -3.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.42 > 6 (EBIT TTM 114.2m / Interest Expense TTM 270.1m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 1.39b - Total Current Liabilities 1.82b) / Total Assets 8.81b |
| B: -0.31 (Retained Earnings -2.75b / Total Assets 8.81b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 114.2m / Avg Total Assets 9.15b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 1.41b / Total Liabilities 7.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.05 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 656.7m/725.0m, Revenue 2.21b/2.66b) |
| GMI: 1.54 (GM 61.82% / 40.20%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 0.83 (Revenue 2.21b / 2.66b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -170.9m - CFO 766.1m) / TA 8.81b) |
| Beneish M = -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.57 with a total of 933,174 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.47%,
over one month by +6.57%,
over three months by +9.21% and
over the past year by +20.00%.
TransAlta has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TAC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.2 | -2.6% |
Market Cap CAD = 5.93b (4.23b USD * 1.4004 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 116.2791
P/S = 1.9129
P/B = 12.6927
P/EG = 6.9786
Revenue TTM = 2.21b CAD
EBIT TTM = 114.2m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 693.4m CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.53b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 937.4m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.62b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 146.0m
Net Debt = 4.29b CAD (calculated: Debt 4.62b - CCE 334.9m)
Enterprise Value = 10.2b CAD (5.93b + Debt 4.62b - CCE 334.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.42 (Ebit TTM 114.2m / Interest Expense TTM 270.1m)
EV/FCF = 19.75x (Enterprise Value 10.2b / FCF TTM 517.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.06% (FCF TTM 517.1m / Enterprise Value 10.2b)
FCF Margin = 23.37% (FCF TTM 517.1m / Revenue TTM 2.21b)
Net Margin = -7.72% (Net Income TTM -170.9m / Revenue TTM 2.21b)
Gross Margin = 40.20% ((Revenue TTM 2.21b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.01% (prev 23.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 10.2b / Total Assets 8.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.85% (Interest Expense 270.1m / Debt 4.62b)
Taxrate = 26.09% (6.02m / 23.1m)
NOPAT = 84.4m (EBIT 114.2m * (1 - 26.09%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 1.39b / Total Current Liabilities 1.82b)
Debt / Equity = 3.28 (Debt 4.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.18 (Net Debt 4.29b / EBITDA 693.4m)
Debt / FCF = 8.29 (Net Debt 4.29b / FCF TTM 517.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.87% (Net Income -170.9m / Total Assets 8.81b)
RoE = -11.55% (Net Income TTM -170.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.48b)
RoCE = 2.28% (EBIT 114.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.48b + L.T.Debt 3.53b))
RoIC = 1.08% (NOPAT 84.4m / Invested Capital 7.81b)
WACC = 6.83% (E(5.93b)/V(10.5b) * Re(8.78%) + D(4.62b)/V(10.5b) * Rd(5.85%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -25.61 | Cagr: -1.60%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈419.5m ; Y1≈480.9m ; Y5≈707.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.14 (EV 10.6b - Net Debt 4.29b = Equity 6.36b / Shares 316.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -98.59 | Revenue CAGR: -16.02% | SUE: 1.78 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+2.67% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+22.88% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+52.6% | GrowthRev=-9.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=+14.20% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+98.9% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%