(TAC) TransAlta - Ratings and Ratios
Hydro, Wind, Solar, Gas, Coal
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.30% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.13% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.6% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 54.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.59 |
| Alpha | 9.68 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.583 |
| Beta | 1.166 |
| Beta Downside | 1.634 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.26% |
| Mean DD | 16.96% |
| Median DD | 15.68% |
Description: TAC TransAlta November 08, 2025
TransAlta Corp (NYSE:TAC) is a Canadian-based independent power producer that generates and markets electricity across five segments: Hydro (≈ 922 MW), Wind & Solar (≈ 2,057 MW plus battery storage), Gas (≈ 2,775 MW), Energy Transition (≈ 671 MW of coal plus the Skookumchuck hydro project and mine-reclamation activities), and Energy Marketing (trading of power, natural gas, and environmental products). Its asset portfolio spans Canada, the United States, and Western Australia, serving a diversified client base that includes commercial real-estate, municipal, industrial, hospitality, finance, and oil-and-gas customers.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show an adjusted EBITDA of roughly US$1.1 billion and a dividend yield near 5.5 %, reflecting the company’s focus on cash-flow stability. Renewable capacity grew by about 8 % YoY, driven primarily by new wind farms in the U.S. Midwest and solar-plus-storage projects in Ontario, while the gas fleet remains the largest earnings contributor, especially under the current North American natural-gas price environment. A material risk is the exposure to carbon-pricing mechanisms in Canada and the U.S., which could accelerate the planned phase-out of the remaining coal assets.
Given the mix of legacy fossil assets and a rapidly expanding renewable pipeline, analysts should monitor the trajectory of regional carbon-price trajectories, the timing of the Skookumchuck hydro-electric conversion, and the company’s ability to monetize battery storage in competitive markets. For a deeper, data-driven dive into TAC’s valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-141.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 149.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.21pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -15.78% (prev -20.96%; Δ 5.18pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 630.0m > Net Income -141.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.20b) to EBITDA (720.0m) ratio: 5.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.79 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (310.0m) change vs 12m ago 4.73% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 53.54% (prev 61.73%; Δ -8.19pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 28.31% (prev 32.25%; Δ -3.94pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.47 (EBITDA TTM 720.0m / Interest Expense TTM 283.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.53
| (A) -0.04 = (Total Current Assets 1.46b - Total Current Liabilities 1.85b) / Total Assets 8.89b |
| (B) -0.30 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.63b / Total Assets 8.89b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 133.0m / Avg Total Assets 8.77b |
| (D) -0.36 = Book Value of Equity -2.63b / Total Liabilities 7.28b |
| Total Rating: -1.53 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.78
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.44% |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.13% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.97 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.95)% |
| 7. RoE -8.56% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -22.05% |
| 9. EPS Trend -4.57% |
What is the price of TAC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.11%, over one month by -20.29%, over three months by +16.65% and over the past year by +23.37%.
Is TAC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TAC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 16.4 | 17.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 16.4 | 17.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.9 | 6.5% |
TAC Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Forward = 53.4759
P/S = 1.6794
P/B = 9.9432
P/EG = -2.34
Beta = 0.469
Revenue TTM = 2.48b CAD
EBIT TTM = 133.0m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 720.0m CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.50b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 919.0m CAD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.56b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 4.20b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.19b CAD (5.84b + Debt 4.56b - CCE 211.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.47 (Ebit TTM 133.0m / Interest Expense TTM 283.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.44% (FCF TTM 351.0m / Enterprise Value 10.19b)
FCF Margin = 14.13% (FCF TTM 351.0m / Revenue TTM 2.48b)
Net Margin = -5.68% (Net Income TTM -141.0m / Revenue TTM 2.48b)
Gross Margin = 53.54% ((Revenue TTM 2.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.29% (prev 77.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 10.19b / Total Assets 8.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.71% (Interest Expense 78.0m / Debt 4.56b)
Taxrate = -1.89% (negative due to tax credits) (1.00m / -53.0m)
NOPAT = 135.5m (EBIT 133.0m * (1 - -1.89%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 1.46b / Total Current Liabilities 1.85b)
Debt / Equity = 2.97 (Debt 4.56b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.53b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.84 (Net Debt 4.20b / EBITDA 720.0m)
Debt / FCF = 11.98 (Net Debt 4.20b / FCF TTM 351.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.59% (Net Income -141.0m / Total Assets 8.89b)
RoE = -8.56% (Net Income TTM -141.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.65b)
RoCE = 2.59% (EBIT 133.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.65b + L.T.Debt 3.50b))
RoIC = 2.61% (NOPAT 135.5m / Invested Capital 5.20b)
WACC = 6.56% (E(5.84b)/V(10.40b) * Re(10.31%) + D(4.56b)/V(10.40b) * Rd(1.71%) * (1-Tc(-0.02)))
Discount Rate = 10.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.32%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.97% ; FCFE base≈389.0m ; Y1≈255.4m ; Y5≈116.8m
Fair Price DCF = 5.57 (DCF Value 1.65b / Shares Outstanding 296.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -4.57 | EPS CAGR: 16.55% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -22.05 | Revenue CAGR: 0.22% | SUE: 2.29 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.045 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+208.0% | Growth Revenue=-14.7%
Additional Sources for TAC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle