TAC Stock Analysis: TransAlta | NYSE
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.783m USD | 12M Return: -3.1% | CA89346D1078 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.7M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -98.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TransAlta Corporation is a Calgary-based independent power producer founded in 1909 that develops, produces, and sells electric energy across five segments: Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing. Its generation portfolio spans assets in Canada, the United States, and Western Australia, with gas representing the largest capacity at approximately 4,834 MW, followed by wind and solar at roughly 2,587 MW, hydro at around 922 MW, and energy transition assets at about 671 MW. The company also operates battery storage facilities and trades electricity, natural gas, and environmental products through its marketing segment.
As an independent power producer, TransAlta generates electricity primarily for sale into wholesale markets or under long-term contracts to utilities and large industrial customers, rather than serving end-use retail consumers directly. Its diversified fuel mix across hydro, wind, solar, and natural gas is characteristic of North American IPPs navigating the energy transition, balancing dispatchable thermal generation with growing renewable and storage capacity.
- Alberta power prices drive Hydro and Gas segment earnings
- Wind and Solar capacity additions expand contracted renewable cash flows
- Centralia coal-to-renewables transition unlocks Energy Transition segment value
| Net Income: -22.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.65% < 20% (prev -15.36%; Δ 3.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 671.1m > Net Income -22.9m |
| Net Debt (4.08b) to EBITDA (822.4m): 4.96 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (302.0m) vs 12m ago 1.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.61% > 18% (prev 61.43%; Δ -17.82% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.50% > 50% (prev 28.05%; Δ -2.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 288.2m / Interest Expense TTM 269.1m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.43b - Total Current Liabilities 1.69b) / Total Assets 8.84b |
| B: -0.31 (Retained Earnings -2.70b / Total Assets 8.84b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 288.2m / Avg Total Assets 8.89b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 1.78b / Total Liabilities 6.99b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.71 = B |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 659.0m/655.0m, Revenue 2.27b/2.51b) |
| GMI: 1.41 (GM 61.43% / 43.61%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 2.27b / 2.51b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -22.9m - CFO 671.1m) / TA 8.84b) |
| Beneish M = -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.08 with a total of 862,698 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.29%, over one month by -2.80%, over three months by -9.27% and over the past year by -3.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.60 (which is 4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
TransAlta has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TAC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.4 | 10.7% |
Market Cap CAD = 5.25b (3.78b USD * 1.3869 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 26.0417
P/S = 1.6694
P/B = 6.1866
P/EG = 6.9786
Revenue TTM = 2.27b CAD
EBIT TTM = 288.2m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 822.4m CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.30b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 936.0m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.38b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 146.0m
Net Debt = 4.08b CAD (calculated: Debt 4.38b - CCE 302.0m)
Enterprise Value = 9.33b CAD (5.25b + Debt 4.38b - CCE 302.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 288.2m / Interest Expense TTM 269.1m)
EV/FCF = 20.59x (Enterprise Value 9.33b / FCF TTM 453.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.86% (FCF TTM 453.1m / Enterprise Value 9.33b)
FCF Margin = 19.99% (FCF TTM 453.1m / Revenue TTM 2.27b)
Net Margin = -1.01% (Net Income TTM -22.9m / Revenue TTM 2.27b)
Gross Margin = 43.61% ((Revenue TTM 2.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.91% (prev 43.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 9.33b / Total Assets 8.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.14% (Interest Expense 269.1m / Debt 4.38b)
Taxrate = 35.0% (28.0m / 80.0m)
NOPAT = 187.3m (EBIT 288.2m * (1 - 35.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 1.43b / Total Current Liabilities 1.69b)
Debt / Equity = 2.46 (Debt 4.38b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.96 (Net Debt 4.08b / EBITDA 822.4m)
Debt / FCF = 9.01 (Net Debt 4.08b / FCF TTM 453.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.53b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.26% (Net Income -22.9m / Total Assets 8.84b)
RoE = -1.50% (Net Income TTM -22.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.53b)
RoCE = 5.96% (EBIT 288.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.53b + L.T.Debt 3.30b))
RoIC = 2.35% (NOPAT 187.3m / Invested Capital 7.97b)
WACC = 7.02% (E(5.25b)/V(9.63b) * Re(9.56%) + D(4.38b)/V(9.63b) * Rd(6.14%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 9.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -17.69 | Cagr: -0.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈393.9m ; Y1≈451.5m ; Y5≈664.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.71 (EV 10.00b - Net Debt 4.08b = Equity 5.92b / Shares 316.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -98.50 | Revenue CAGR: -15.95% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=+56.52% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+11.51% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+63.2% | GrowthRev=-11.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-3.62% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+79.7% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)