TAK Stock Analysis: Takeda Pharmaceutical | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 63.923m USD | 12M Return: 64.2% | US8740602052 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 54.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 78.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a Japan-headquartered global pharmaceutical company founded in 1781, operating in gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. It markets products under numerous brands including Entyvio, Takhzyro, Advate, Adcetris, Vyvanse, and Trintellix, and maintains an extensive network of licensing and collaboration agreements with dozens of biotechnology and pharmaceutical partners. The company operates across Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa, and trades on the NYSE as an ADR under the ticker TAK.
The pharmaceutical sector is characterized by high research and development intensity, long product development cycles, and heavy reliance on regulatory approvals from agencies such as the FDA, EMA, and Japans PMDA. Out-licensing and collaboration agreements, like those Takeda maintains, are a common business model used to share development risk, broaden pipeline access, and monetize intellectual property without bearing full commercialization costs.
- Entyvio sales growth offsets biosimilar competition concerns
- Rare disease and plasma-derived therapy segment revenue accelerates
- Debt deleveraging progresses as capital allocation prioritizes balance sheet repair
| Net Income: 386b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.31% < 20% (prev 17.68%; Δ -9.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 880b > Net Income 386b |
| Net Debt (4484b) to EBITDA (1329b): 3.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.15 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.60b) vs 12m ago -49.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.40% > 18% (prev 64.60%; Δ -5.20% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.84% > 50% (prev 30.52%; Δ 1.32% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 699b / Interest Expense TTM 298b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2997b - Total Current Liabilities 2604b) / Total Assets 15271b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 859b / Total Assets 15271b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 699b / Avg Total Assets 14871b) |
| D: 0.94 (Book Value of Equity 7416b / Total Liabilities 7854b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.66 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 873b/702b, Revenue 4735b/4417b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 64.60% / 59.40%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.66) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 4735b / 4417b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 386b - CFO 880b) / TA 15271b) |
| Beneish M = -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.91 with a total of 4,540,829 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.31%, over one month by +12.97%, over three months by +23.82% and over the past year by +64.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.40 (which is 2.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Takeda Pharmaceutical has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TAK.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.7 | 8.6% |
Market Cap JPY = 10069b (63.9b USD * 157.52 USD.JPY)
P/E Forward = 12.2699
P/S = 0.0138
P/B = 1.3418
P/EG = 0.4526
Revenue TTM = 4735b JPY
EBIT TTM = 699b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 1329b JPY
Long Term Debt = 4175b JPY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 401b JPY (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4903b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 4484b JPY (calculated: Debt 4903b - CCE 419b)
Enterprise Value = 14554b JPY (10069b + Debt 4903b - CCE 419b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.35 (Ebit TTM 699b / Interest Expense TTM 298b)
EV/FCF = 30.11x (Enterprise Value 14554b / FCF TTM 483b)
FCF Yield = 3.32% (FCF TTM 483b / Enterprise Value 14554b)
FCF Margin = 10.21% (FCF TTM 483b / Revenue TTM 4735b)
Net Margin = 8.16% (Net Income TTM 386b / Revenue TTM 4735b)
Gross Margin = 59.40% ((Revenue TTM 4735b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1922b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.97% (prev 66.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 14554b / Total Assets 15271b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.07% (Interest Expense 298b / Debt 4903b)
Taxrate = 26.20% (72.3b / 276b)
NOPAT = 516b (EBIT 699b * (1 - 26.20%))
Current Ratio = 1.15 (Total Current Assets 2997b / Total Current Liabilities 2604b)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 4903b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7416b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.37 (Net Debt 4484b / EBITDA 1329b)
Debt / FCF = 9.28 (Net Debt 4484b / FCF TTM 483b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7607b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.60% (Net Income 386b / Total Assets 15271b)
RoE = 5.08% (Net Income TTM 386b / Total Stockholder Equity 7607b)
RoCE = 5.93% (EBIT 699b / Capital Employed (Equity 7607b + L.T.Debt 4175b))
RoIC = 3.99% (NOPAT 516b / Invested Capital 12946b)
WACC = 4.49% (E(10069b)/V(14972b) * Re(4.50%) + D(4903b)/V(14972b) * Rd(6.07%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 4.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 10.22 | Cagr: 1.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈659b ; Y1≈578b ; Y5≈467b
[DCF] Fair Price = 942.4 (EV 7494b - Net Debt 4484b = Equity 3009b / Shares 3.19b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.06 | Revenue CAGR: 3.14% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=148.67 | Chg30d=-0.88% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+143.7% | GrowthRev=+694.8%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=198.63 | Chg30d=+43.38% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+33.6% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)