TALO Stock Analysis: Talos Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.269m USD | 12M Return: 58.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 73.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE: TALO) is a Houston, Texas-based independent energy company founded in 2011 that operates in two segments: Upstream and Carbon Capture and Sequestration. The companys Upstream segment focuses on the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, with operations spanning the United States and Mexico.
The addition of a Carbon Capture and Sequestration segment reflects a broader industry trend among oil and gas producers toward integrating emissions-reduction strategies alongside traditional hydrocarbon production. Independent E&P companies like Talos typically generate revenue through the sale of produced crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs, with profitability closely tied to commodity prices and reserve-replacement activities.
- WTI crude prices drive Gulf of Mexico upstream margins
- Mexico Zama field unitization delays impact production growth outlook
- Carbon capture and sequestration segment expands with low carbon solutions
| Net Income: -742.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.08% < 20% (prev 1.75%; Δ 6.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 841.6m > Net Income -742.7m |
| Net Debt (870.5m) to EBITDA (384.6m): 2.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (168.4m) vs 12m ago -6.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 6.82% > 18% (prev 18.37%; Δ -11.55% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.50% > 50% (prev 33.54%; Δ -3.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.08 > 6 (EBIT TTM -750.7m / Interest Expense TTM 243.5m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 847.5m - Total Current Liabilities 707.0m) / Total Assets 5.27b |
| B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -1.17b / Total Assets 5.27b) |
| C: -0.13 (EBIT TTM -750.7m / Avg Total Assets 5.70b) |
| D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 1.87b / Total Liabilities 3.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.86 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 341.3m/372.2m, Revenue 1.74b/2.06b) |
| GMI: 2.69 (GM 18.37% / 6.82%) |
| AQI: 19.67 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.85 (Revenue 1.74b / 2.06b) |
| TATA: -0.30 (NI -742.7m - CFO 841.6m) / TA 5.27b) |
| Beneish M = 9.51 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.23 with a total of 1,675,429 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.22%, over one month by -4.82%, over three months by -4.62% and over the past year by +58.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.30 (which is 6.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Talos Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.36. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TALO.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.1 | 34.3% |
P/E Forward = 46.9484
P/S = 1.3045
P/B = 1.2102
Revenue TTM = 1.74b USD
EBIT TTM = -750.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 384.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.23b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.7m
Net Debt = 870.5m USD (calculated: Debt 1.26b - CCE 386.4m)
Enterprise Value = 3.14b USD (2.27b + Debt 1.26b - CCE 386.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.08 (Ebit TTM -750.7m / Interest Expense TTM 243.5m)
EV/FCF = 6.42x (Enterprise Value 3.14b / FCF TTM 488.7m)
FCF Yield = 15.57% (FCF TTM 488.7m / Enterprise Value 3.14b)
FCF Margin = 28.10% (FCF TTM 488.7m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = -42.70% (Net Income TTM -742.7m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 6.82% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.50% (prev -7.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 3.14b / Total Assets 5.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 19.38% (Interest Expense 243.5m / Debt 1.26b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -593.0m (EBIT -750.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.20 (Total Current Assets 847.5m / Total Current Liabilities 707.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 1.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.26 (Net Debt 870.5m / EBITDA 384.6m)
Debt / FCF = 1.78 (Net Debt 870.5m / FCF TTM 488.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.02% (Net Income -742.7m / Total Assets 5.27b)
RoE = -33.22% (Net Income TTM -742.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.24b)
RoCE = -21.68% (EBIT -750.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.24b + L.T.Debt 1.23b))
RoIC = -13.23% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -593.0m / Invested Capital 4.48b)
WACC = 11.38% (E(2.27b)/V(3.53b) * Re(9.21%) + D(1.26b)/V(3.53b) * Rd(19.38%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -15.56 | Cagr: 14.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.68% ; FCFF base≈550.2m ; Y1≈482.5m ; Y5≈389.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.86 (EV 4.19b - Net Debt 870.5m = Equity 3.32b / Shares 166.9m; r=11.38% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.27 | Revenue CAGR: 11.42% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+29.19% | Revisions=+70% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+40.41% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.69 | Chg30d=+46.96% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+182.3% | GrowthRev=+12.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.09 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=-113.1% | GrowthRev=-4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81% (up=22, down=1)