TCBX Stock Analysis: Third Coast Bancshares | NYSE

Banks - Regional | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 664m USD | 12M Return: 16.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Deposit Accounts, Business Loans, Digital Banking
Total Rating 28
Safety 30
Buy Signal -0.58
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 664M
Avg Turnover: 4.91M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility32.1%
VaR 5th Pctl5.37%
VaR vs Median1.65%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.52
Rel. Str. IBD38.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group6.3
Character TTM
Beta0.694
Beta Downside0.789
Hurst Exponent0.521
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD30.07%
CAGR/Max DD1.24
CAGR/Mean DD4.05
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TCBX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": null, "2021-09": 0.28, "2021-12": 0.03, "2022-03": 0.15, "2022-06": 0.22, "2022-09": 0.49, "2022-12": 0.44, "2023-03": 0.55, "2023-06": 0.53, "2023-09": 0.32, "2023-12": 0.57, "2024-03": 0.61, "2024-06": 0.63, "2024-09": 0.74, "2024-12": 0.79, "2025-03": 0.78, "2025-06": 0.96, "2025-09": 1.03, "2025-12": 1.02, "2026-03": 0.88,
EPS CAGR: 34.78%
EPS Trend: 97.6%
Last SUE: -0.68
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TCBX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 24.901, 2021-09: 24.868, 2021-12: 28.439721, 2022-03: 28.572, 2022-06: 33.143, 2022-09: 45.356, 2022-12: 52.76, 2023-03: 59.316, 2023-06: 64.691, 2023-09: 70.979, 2023-12: 79.09, 2024-03: 80.993, 2024-06: 83.851, 2024-09: 85.009, 2024-12: 88.22, 2025-03: 83.604, 2025-06: 90.873, 2025-09: 96.109, 2025-12: 96.36, 2026-03: 101.419,
Rev. CAGR: 19.17%
Rev. Trend: 94.7%
Last SUE: 0.76
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 4.6 years of data

Jan +1.9% 22
Feb -1.4% 0
Mar -8.7% 27
Apr -4.8% 47
May +5.2% 23
Jun +0.8% 21
Jul +9.4% 53
Aug +0.6% 11
Sep -8.0% 21
Oct -4.3% 18
Nov +3.5% 52
Dec -2.4% 21

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TCBX Third Coast Bancshares

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) is the bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, a Texas-based commercial bank serving small and medium-sized businesses and professionals. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Humble, Texas, the company generates revenue through a traditional community banking model, earning net interest income on its loan portfolio and fee income from related banking services.

The companys deposit offerings include checking, money market, savings, IRA, and certificate of deposit accounts. Its loan portfolio spans commercial and residential real estate, construction and development, commercial and industrial, farmland, consumer, and agricultural lending, as well as lease financing and bond anticipation notes. As a regional bank, TCBX concentrates its lending and deposit-gathering activities within a defined Texas market, distinguishing it from larger, nationally diversified banks.

In addition to core lending and deposit services, Third Coast provides digital banking platforms, mobile apps, treasury management, merchant card services, and debit and credit cards. The company also maintains a securities portfolio that includes municipal and mortgage-backed securities, agency collateralized mortgage obligations, U.S. Treasury bonds, and corporate bonds. TCBX went public on the NYSE in November 2021 and is classified as a small-cap regional bank within the Financials sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expansion drives earnings growth
  • Texas commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit quality scrutiny
  • Deposit cost pressures mount amid regional bank competition
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 69.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.92 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.30k% < 20% (prev -1.11k%; Δ -191.4% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 1.66m > Net Income 69.1m
Net Debt (-558.5m) to EBITDA (92.1m): -6.07 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.4m) vs 12m ago -6.12% < -2%
Gross Margin: 55.80% > 18% (prev 50.29%; Δ 5.51% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.70% > 50% (prev 6.96%; Δ -0.25% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 86.6m / Interest Expense TTM 164.6m)
Altman Z'' -4.68
A: -0.76 (Total Current Assets 766.1m - Total Current Liabilities 5.78b) / Total Assets 6.58b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 198.4m / Total Assets 6.58b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 86.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.74b)
D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 650.5m / Total Liabilities 5.93b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.68 = D
Beneish M -3.00
DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 31.4m/26.8m, Revenue 384.8m/340.7m)
GMI: 0.90 (GM 50.29% / 55.80%)
AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.87 / AQ_t-1 0.89)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 384.8m / 340.7m)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 69.1m - CFO 1.66m) / TA 6.58b)
Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of TCBX shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.42 with a total of 129,478 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.27%, over one month by +1.94%, over three months by +2.69% and over the past year by +16.05%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.60 (which is 7% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is TCBX a buy, sell or hold?

Third Coast Bancshares has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TCBX.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TCBX price?
Analysts Target Price 42.8 5.8%
Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 07 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 663.7m (663.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 10.2828
P/E Forward = 10.3842
P/S = 3.117
P/B = 1.0203
Revenue TTM = 384.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 86.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 92.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 81.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 57.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 176.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.7m
Net Debt = -558.5m USD (calculated: Debt 176.2m - CCE 734.7m)
Enterprise Value = 105.2m USD (663.7m + Debt 176.2m - CCE 734.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.53 (Ebit TTM 86.6m / Interest Expense TTM 164.6m)
EV/FCF = -7.18x (Enterprise Value 105.2m / FCF TTM -14.7m)
FCF Yield = -13.93% (FCF TTM -14.7m / Enterprise Value 105.2m)
FCF Margin = -3.81% (FCF TTM -14.7m / Revenue TTM 384.8m)
Net Margin = 17.95% (Net Income TTM 69.1m / Revenue TTM 384.8m)
Gross Margin = 55.80% ((Revenue TTM 384.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 170.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.30% (prev 58.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 105.2m / Total Assets 6.58b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 93.39% (Interest Expense 164.6m / Debt 176.2m)
 Taxrate = 18.16% (15.3m / 84.4m)
NOPAT = 70.9m (EBIT 86.6m * (1 - 18.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 766.1m / Total Current Liabilities 5.78b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 176.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 650.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.07 (Net Debt -558.5m / EBITDA 92.1m)
 Debt / FCF = 38.11 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -558.5m / FCF TTM -14.7m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 547.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.20% (Net Income 69.1m / Total Assets 6.58b)
RoE = 12.61% (Net Income TTM 69.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 547.9m)
RoCE = 13.78% (EBIT 86.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 547.9m + L.T.Debt 81.0m))
RoIC = 8.44% (NOPAT 70.9m / Invested Capital 840.6m)
WACC = 6.65% (E(663.7m)/V(839.9m) * Re(8.42%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 25.01 | Cagr: -1.37%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -14.7m)
 EPS Correlation: 97.55 | EPS CAGR: 34.78% | SUE: -0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.75 | Revenue CAGR: 19.17% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-6.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.92 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+3.4% | GrowthRev=+20.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.20 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -55% (up=1, down=7)