(TDG) Transdigm - Ratings and Ratios
Actuators, Valves, Motors, Connectors, Restraints
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.40 |
| Alpha | 5.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.578 |
| Beta | 0.674 |
| Beta Downside | 0.805 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 17.98% |
| Mean DD | 4.46% |
| Median DD | 2.96% |
Description: TDG Transdigm September 26, 2025
TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) designs, manufactures, and supplies a broad portfolio of aircraft components across three primary segments-Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation-serving both commercial and military customers worldwide.
The Power & Control segment focuses on mechanical and electromechanical actuators, ignition systems, specialized pumps, valves, power-conditioning devices, electric motors, generators, batteries, chargers, databus and power controls, sensors, switches, relay panels, hoists, winches, cargo-handling equipment, and related electronic components. Its customers include engine and power-system suppliers, airlines, third-party maintenance providers, defense agencies, and repair depots.
The Airframe segment delivers engineered latching and locking devices, rods, connectors, elastomer seals, cockpit security components, displays, audio/radio/antenna systems, lavatory parts, seat belts, safety restraints, interior surfaces, thermal protection, lighting, parachutes, and specialized testing services. Buyers comprise airframe manufacturers, cabin-system suppliers, airlines, maintenance firms, defense agencies, and repair facilities.
The Non-aviation segment extends TransDigm’s expertise to seat-belt and restraint systems, actuators, hydraulic and fuel-valve controls, refueling systems, and turbine controls for off-road vehicles, child-restraint manufacturers, satellite/space system providers, and heavy-equipment makers.
Based on FY 2023 filings, TDG generated roughly $2.4 billion in revenue with an operating margin of ~22 % and free-cash-flow conversion above 90 %. The company maintains a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.5×, reflecting a leveraged but cash-generating balance sheet. These figures assume the reported numbers are comparable year-over-year and do not account for any undisclosed off-balance-sheet obligations.
Key economic drivers for TDG include airline fleet-renewal cycles, which boost demand for aftermarket parts; sustained U.S. defense spending that underpins military procurement; and supply-chain constraints that can create pricing power for niche, high-margin components. A slowdown in airline traffic or a sharp cut in defense budgets would materially affect revenue visibility.
For a deeper dive into TDG’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, the free ValueRay platform offers a useful toolkit.
TDG Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 75,501m |
| Sub-Industry | Aerospace & Defense |
| IPO / Inception | 2006-03-15 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 3.85% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.39 of 5 |
TDG Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.68% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.29% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 101.35% |
| Payout Consistency | 41.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.4% |
TDG Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 38.16% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 2.12 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 8.56 |
| Current Volume | 237.5k |
| Average Volume | 262k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (2.07b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 529.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.58pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 54.71% (prev 46.50%; Δ 8.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.04b <= Net Income 2.07b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (27.21b) to EBITDA (4.48b) ratio: 6.08 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.21 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (58.1m) change vs 12m ago 0.17% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 59.81% (prev 57.41%; Δ 2.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 36.41% (prev 31.02%; Δ 5.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.92 (EBITDA TTM 4.48b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.37
| (A) 0.21 = (Total Current Assets 7.01b - Total Current Liabilities 2.18b) / Total Assets 22.91b |
| (B) -0.46 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -10.61b / Total Assets 22.91b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 3.04b / Avg Total Assets 24.25b |
| (D) -0.33 = Book Value of Equity -10.61b / Total Liabilities 32.59b |
| Total Rating: 0.37 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.10
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.77% |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.57% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -3.10 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 6.08 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.10)% |
| 7. RoE -31.17% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 94.70% |
| 9. EPS Trend 86.74% |
What is the price of TDG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.49%, over one month by +1.36%, over three months by +3.87% and over the past year by +16.68%.
Is TDG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TDG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1570.4 | 16.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1570.4 | 16.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1936.2 | 43.7% |
TDG Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
P/E Trailing = 41.3255
P/E Forward = 32.1543
P/S = 8.5495
P/EG = 3.8692
Beta = 0.923
Revenue TTM = 8.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.04b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.48b USD
Long Term Debt = 29.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 848.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 27.21b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 102.72b USD (75.50b + Debt 30.03b - CCE 2.81b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.92 (Ebit TTM 3.04b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b)
FCF Yield = 1.77% (FCF TTM 1.82b / Enterprise Value 102.72b)
FCF Margin = 20.57% (FCF TTM 1.82b / Revenue TTM 8.83b)
Net Margin = 23.49% (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Revenue TTM 8.83b)
Gross Margin = 59.81% ((Revenue TTM 8.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.32% (prev 58.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.48 (Enterprise Value 102.72b / Total Assets 22.91b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.40% (Interest Expense 420.0m / Debt 30.03b)
Taxrate = 19.15% (144.0m / 752.0m)
NOPAT = 2.45b (EBIT 3.04b * (1 - 19.15%))
Current Ratio = 3.21 (Total Current Assets 7.01b / Total Current Liabilities 2.18b)
Debt / Equity = -3.10 (negative equity) (Debt 30.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -9.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.08 (Net Debt 27.21b / EBITDA 4.48b)
Debt / FCF = 14.98 (Net Debt 27.21b / FCF TTM 1.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -6.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.05% (Net Income 2.07b / Total Assets 22.91b)
RoE = -31.17% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Total Stockholder Equity -6.65b)
RoCE = 13.49% (EBIT 3.04b / Capital Employed (Equity -6.65b + L.T.Debt 29.17b))
RoIC = 12.51% (NOPAT 2.45b / Invested Capital 19.63b)
WACC = 6.40% (E(75.50b)/V(105.53b) * Re(8.50%) + D(30.03b)/V(105.53b) * Rd(1.40%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.87%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.97% ; FCFE base≈1.84b ; Y1≈2.27b ; Y5≈3.88b
Fair Price DCF = 1072 (DCF Value 60.36b / Shares Outstanding 56.3m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 86.74 | EPS CAGR: 36.70% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.70 | Revenue CAGR: 22.43% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TDG Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle