(TEF) Telefonica - Ratings and Ratios
Mobile, Broadband, Fixed-Line, Cloud, Wholesale
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 16.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -8.52% |
| Payout Consistency | 71.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 111.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 35.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 2.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.04 |
| Alpha | -6.37 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.452 |
| Beta | 0.105 |
| Beta Downside | -0.007 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.55% |
| Mean DD | 5.65% |
| Median DD | 4.22% |
Description: TEF Telefonica October 14, 2025
Telefónica S.A. (NYSE: TEF) operates a diversified telecommunications portfolio across Europe and Latin America, delivering mobile voice, data, and value-added services; traditional fixed-line offerings such as PSTN, ISDN, and broadband; wholesale interconnection and fiber-leasing solutions; and an expanding suite of digital products-including AI-driven Aura, smart-home devices, cloud, security, advertising, and big-data services. The firm also provides end-to-end video/TV platforms, fintech/payment tools, and a digital sales engine (Phoenix) that supports both retail and wholesale channels.
Key recent metrics that shape Telefónica’s outlook: (1) 2023 EBITDA of €9.4 billion, reflecting a 4 % YoY increase driven by higher mobile data ARPU in Brazil and Spain; (2) Capex of €4.2 billion, with ~€1.8 billion earmarked for 5G rollout and fiber-to-the-home expansion, underscoring the company’s focus on network modernization; (3) Subscriber base of roughly 340 million lines, of which 45 % are post-paid mobile contracts, a segment that historically yields lower churn and higher margin. Macro-level drivers include robust GDP growth in Latin America (≈3 % in 2023) supporting data demand, and European regulatory pressure on roaming fees and net-neutrality that compresses wholesale margins but incentivizes value-added services.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial models and scenario analysis worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-2.12b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.30b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.57pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -9.24% (prev -9.39%; Δ 0.15pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 11.05b > Net Income -2.12b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (38.51b) to EBITDA (14.30b) ratio: 2.69 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.84 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (5.64b) change vs 12m ago 0.05% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 83.73% (prev 49.87%; Δ 33.86pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 39.65% (prev 40.38%; Δ -0.73pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.69 (EBITDA TTM 14.30b / Interest Expense TTM 1.72b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.13
| (A) -0.04 = (Total Current Assets 18.99b - Total Current Liabilities 22.52b) / Total Assets 92.57b |
| (B) 0.24 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 22.61b / Total Assets 92.57b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 4.62b / Avg Total Assets 96.53b |
| (D) 0.25 = Book Value of Equity 17.61b / Total Liabilities 71.22b |
| Total Rating: 1.13 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.73
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.62% |
| 3. FCF Margin 12.78% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.44 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.69 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.94)% |
| 7. RoE -11.45% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -24.85% |
| 9. EPS Trend 0.21% |
What is the price of TEF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.72%, over one month by +2.94%, over three months by -20.75% and over the past year by +1.14%.
Is TEF a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TEF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.5 | 7.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.5 | 7.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.6 | 10.5% |
TEF Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Forward = 13.8889
P/S = 0.5652
P/B = 1.1561
P/EG = 0.372
Beta = 0.244
Revenue TTM = 38.27b EUR
EBIT TTM = 4.62b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 14.30b EUR
Long Term Debt = 31.33b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.44b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.90b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 38.51b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.72b EUR (20.19b + Debt 42.90b - CCE 6.37b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.69 (Ebit TTM 4.62b / Interest Expense TTM 1.72b)
FCF Yield = 8.62% (FCF TTM 4.89b / Enterprise Value 56.72b)
FCF Margin = 12.78% (FCF TTM 4.89b / Revenue TTM 38.27b)
Net Margin = -5.53% (Net Income TTM -2.12b / Revenue TTM 38.27b)
Gross Margin = 83.73% ((Revenue TTM 38.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.47% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 56.72b / Total Assets 92.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.15% (Interest Expense 494.0m / Debt 42.90b)
Taxrate = 30.91% (149.0m / 482.0m)
NOPAT = 3.19b (EBIT 4.62b * (1 - 30.91%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 18.99b / Total Current Liabilities 22.52b)
Debt / Equity = 2.44 (Debt 42.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.69 (Net Debt 38.51b / EBITDA 14.30b)
Debt / FCF = 7.88 (Net Debt 38.51b / FCF TTM 4.89b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.49b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.29% (Net Income -2.12b / Total Assets 92.57b)
RoE = -11.45% (Net Income TTM -2.12b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.49b)
RoCE = 9.27% (EBIT 4.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.49b + L.T.Debt 31.33b))
RoIC = 11.53% (NOPAT 3.19b / Invested Capital 27.67b)
WACC = 2.59% (E(20.19b)/V(63.09b) * Re(6.40%) + D(42.90b)/V(63.09b) * Rd(1.15%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 6.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.05% ; FCFE base≈5.29b ; Y1≈5.20b ; Y5≈5.34b
Fair Price DCF = 16.82 (DCF Value 94.82b / Shares Outstanding 5.64b; 5y FCF grow -2.49% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 0.21 | EPS CAGR: 30.33% | SUE: -0.55 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -24.85 | Revenue CAGR: -0.88% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=-0.033 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+0.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.3%
Additional Sources for TEF Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle