TFPM Stock Analysis: Triple Flag Precious Metals | NYSE
Other Precious Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.320m USD | 12M Return: 6.3% | CA89679M1041 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.1M
EPS Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: TFPM) is a Toronto-based precious metals streaming and royalty company founded in 2016. The company acquires and manages streams, royalties, and other mineral interests across a geographically diverse footprint spanning Australia, Canada, Colombia, Côte dIvoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.
Its portfolio provides exposure to a range of metals including gold, silver, copper, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The streaming and royalty business model involves providing upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for the right to purchase a share of future metal production at a fixed discount (streaming) or a percentage of revenue (royalty), typically requiring less operational capital than traditional mining. The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector (Gold sub-industry) and trades as a mid-cap stock following its 2021 IPO.
- Gold price surge lifts streaming revenue and margins
- New royalty and stream acquisitions expand portfolio
- Diversified commodity exposure cushions single-metal price swings
| Net Income: 411.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -19.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.01% < 20% (prev 28.87%; Δ -10.85% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 390.6m > Net Income 411.5m |
| Net Debt (221.2m) to EBITDA (531.7m): 0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (206.9m) vs 12m ago 2.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.36% > 18% (prev 60.24%; Δ 14.11% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 22.10% > 50% (prev 17.54%; Δ 4.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 206.6 > 6 (EBIT TTM 450.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.18m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 120.9m - Total Current Liabilities 32.9m) / Total Assets 2.57b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 404.1m / Total Assets 2.57b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 450.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.21b) |
| D: 7.87 (Book Value of Equity 2.28b / Total Liabilities 289.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 10.37 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 29.7m/19.4m, Revenue 488.4m/324.2m) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 60.24% / 74.36%) |
| AQI: 8.75 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 488.4m / 324.2m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 411.5m - CFO 390.6m) / TA 2.57b) |
| Beneish M = 1.77 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.21 with a total of 264,333 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.96%, over one month by -7.94%, over three months by +9.66% and over the past year by +6.26%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.40 (which is 5.8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Triple Flag Precious Metals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.18. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TFPM.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 39.5 | 26.6% |
P/E Trailing = 15.4171
P/E Forward = 23.6967
P/S = 12.9359
P/B = 3.0453
Revenue TTM = 488.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 450.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 531.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 235.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 397k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 236.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.39m
Net Debt = 221.2m USD (calculated: Debt 236.4m - CCE 15.2m)
Enterprise Value = 6.54b USD (6.32b + Debt 236.4m - CCE 15.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 206.6 (Ebit TTM 450.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.18m)
EV/FCF = -30.02x (Enterprise Value 6.54b / FCF TTM -217.9m)
FCF Yield = -3.33% (FCF TTM -217.9m / Enterprise Value 6.54b)
FCF Margin = -44.63% (FCF TTM -217.9m / Revenue TTM 488.4m)
Net Margin = 84.27% (Net Income TTM 411.5m / Revenue TTM 488.4m)
Gross Margin = 74.36% ((Revenue TTM 488.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 125.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.30% (prev 71.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.54 (Enterprise Value 6.54b / Total Assets 2.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.92% (Interest Expense 2.18m / Debt 236.4m)
Taxrate = 7.89% (35.2m / 446.8m)
NOPAT = 415.2m (EBIT 450.8m * (1 - 7.89%))
Current Ratio = 3.67 (Total Current Assets 120.9m / Total Current Liabilities 32.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 236.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.42 (Net Debt 221.2m / EBITDA 531.7m)
Debt / FCF = -1.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 221.2m / FCF TTM -217.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.62% (Net Income 411.5m / Total Assets 2.57b)
RoE = 19.46% (Net Income TTM 411.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.12b)
RoCE = 19.18% (EBIT 450.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.12b + L.T.Debt 235.0m))
RoIC = 16.45% (NOPAT 415.2m / Invested Capital 2.52b)
WACC = 7.54% (E(6.32b)/V(6.56b) * Re(7.79%) + D(236.4m)/V(6.56b) * Rd(0.92%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.83 | Cagr: 1.26%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -217.9m)
EPS Correlation: 98.87 | EPS CAGR: 70.42% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 98.66 | Revenue CAGR: 40.39% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-20.04% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=-3.69% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+33.1% | GrowthRev=+26.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=-2.07% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+11.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=5, down=5)