TFPM Stock Analysis: Triple Flag Precious Metals | NYSE

Other Precious Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.858m USD | 12M Return: 30.7% | CA89679M1041 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Gold, Silver, Copper, Nickel
Total Rating 47
Safety 31
Buy Signal 0.06
Other Precious Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: +71.7
Market Cap: 6.86B
Avg Turnover: 15.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility46.8%
VaR 5th Pctl8.58%
VaR vs Median11.3%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.73
Rel. Str. IBD42.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group17.7
Character TTM
Beta0.519
Beta Downside0.338
Hurst Exponent0.500
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD34.87%
CAGR/Max DD1.08
CAGR/Mean DD4.16
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TFPM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.12, "2021-09": 0.09, "2021-12": 0.09, "2022-03": 0.1, "2022-06": 0.1, "2022-09": 0.09, "2022-12": 0.12, "2023-03": 0.07, "2023-06": 0.09, "2023-09": 0.09, "2023-12": 0.09, "2024-03": 0.12, "2024-06": 0.13, "2024-09": 0.15, "2024-12": 0.18, "2025-03": 0.2, "2025-06": 0.24, "2025-09": 0.24, "2025-12": 0.33, "2026-03": 0.45, "2026-06": 0.39,
EPS CAGR: 70.42%
EPS Trend: 98.9%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 5
Revenue Revenue of TFPM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 40.939, 2021-09: 37.126, 2021-12: 36.99, 2022-03: 37.755, 2022-06: 36.49, 2022-09: 33.754, 2022-12: 50.269, 2023-03: 50.269, 2023-06: 52.591, 2023-09: 49.425, 2023-12: 51.739, 2024-03: 57.528, 2024-06: 63.581, 2024-09: 73.669, 2024-12: 74.213, 2025-03: 82.245, 2025-06: 94.087, 2025-09: 93.456, 2025-12: 120.74389, 2026-03: 144.956892, 2026-06: 129.211,
Rev. CAGR: 40.39%
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 4.8 years of data

Jan -3.9% 29
Feb +0.1% 18
Mar +11.3% 29
Apr +5.2% 24
May +0.1% 0
Jun -4.7% 30
Jul -2.6% 24
Aug +6.9% 14
Sep +0.1% 0
Oct -6.4% 23
Nov +8.1% 28
Dec -5.3% 25

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) is a Toronto-based precious metals streaming and royalty company founded in 2016 and listed on the NYSE in September 2021. The company acquires and manages streams, royalties, and other mineral interests across a geographically diversified footprint spanning Australia, Canada, Colombia, Côte dIvoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. Its portfolio provides exposure to a broad range of commodities, including copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. As a mid-cap stock classified within the GICS Materials sector (Gold sub-industry), Triple Flag operates under a business model that finances mining operations in exchange for a share of future metal production or revenue, which typically carries lower direct operating risk than traditional mining companies.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Gold prices rally lifts streaming revenue and margins
  • New royalty deals expand production growth pipeline
  • Copper silver prices drive diversified commodity revenue
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 411.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -19.10 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 18.01% < 20% (prev 28.87%; Δ -10.85% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 390.6m > Net Income 411.5m
Net Debt (221.2m) to EBITDA (395.4m): 0.56 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.67 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (206.9m) vs 12m ago 2.73% < -2%
Gross Margin: 74.36% > 18% (prev 60.24%; Δ 14.11% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 22.10% > 50% (prev 17.54%; Δ 4.56% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 144.1 > 6 (EBIT TTM 314.4m / Interest Expense TTM 2.18m)
Altman Z'' 9.96
A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 120.9m - Total Current Liabilities 32.9m) / Total Assets 2.57b
B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 404.1m / Total Assets 2.57b)
C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 314.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.21b)
D: 7.87 (Book Value of Equity 2.28b / Total Liabilities 289.8m)
Altman-Z'' = 9.96 = AAA
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 29.7m/19.4m, Revenue 488.4m/324.2m)
GMI: 0.81 (GM 60.24% / 74.36%)
AQI: 8.75 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 488.4m / 324.2m)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 411.5m - CFO 390.6m) / TA 2.57b)
Beneish M = 1.77 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of TFPM shares?

As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.79 with a total of 822,660 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.37%, over one month by +18.48%, over three months by +6.15% and over the past year by +30.73%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.40 (which is 7.1% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).

Is TFPM a buy, sell or hold?

Triple Flag Precious Metals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TFPM.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TFPM price?
Analysts Target Price 39.3 16.2%
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 22 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 6.86b (6.86b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 16.399
P/E Forward = 23.2558
P/S = 14.0364
P/B = 2.955
Revenue TTM = 488.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 314.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 395.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 235.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 397k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 236.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.39m
Net Debt = 221.2m USD (calculated: Debt 236.4m - CCE 15.2m)
Enterprise Value = 7.08b USD (6.86b + Debt 236.4m - CCE 15.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 144.1 (Ebit TTM 314.4m / Interest Expense TTM 2.18m)
EV/FCF = -32.48x (Enterprise Value 7.08b / FCF TTM -217.9m)
FCF Yield = -3.08% (FCF TTM -217.9m / Enterprise Value 7.08b)
FCF Margin = -44.63% (FCF TTM -217.9m / Revenue TTM 488.4m)
Net Margin = 84.27% (Net Income TTM 411.5m / Revenue TTM 488.4m)
Gross Margin = 74.36% ((Revenue TTM 488.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 125.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.30% (prev 71.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.75 (Enterprise Value 7.08b / Total Assets 2.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.92% (Interest Expense 2.18m / Debt 236.4m)
Taxrate = 7.89% (35.2m / 446.8m)
NOPAT = 289.6m (EBIT 314.4m * (1 - 7.89%))
Current Ratio = 3.67 (Total Current Assets 120.9m / Total Current Liabilities 32.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 236.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.56 (Net Debt 221.2m / EBITDA 395.4m)
 Debt / FCF = -1.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 221.2m / FCF TTM -217.9m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 2.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.62% (Net Income 411.5m / Total Assets 2.57b)
RoE = 19.46% (Net Income TTM 411.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.12b)
RoCE = 13.38% (EBIT 314.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.12b + L.T.Debt 235.0m))
RoIC = 11.48% (NOPAT 289.6m / Invested Capital 2.52b)
WACC = 7.58% (E(6.86b)/V(7.09b) * Re(7.81%) + D(236.4m)/V(7.09b) * Rd(0.92%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.83 | Cagr: 1.26%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -217.9m)
 EPS Correlation: 98.87 | EPS CAGR: 70.42% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 98.66 | Revenue CAGR: 40.39% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=+3.05% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+38.0% | GrowthRev=+33.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=+10.05% | Revisions=-36% | GrowthEPS=+10.8% | GrowthRev=+22.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -15% (up=7, down=10)