(TFPM) Triple Flag Precious Metals - Ratings and Ratios
Gold, Silver, Copper
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.64% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.61% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.89% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.2% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 40.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 65.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.98% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.33 |
| Alpha | 123.22 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.454 |
| Beta | 0.269 |
| Beta Downside | 0.120 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.02% |
| Mean DD | 11.23% |
| Median DD | 9.52% |
Description: TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals November 05, 2025
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM) is a Toronto-based streaming and royalty firm that acquires and manages a diversified portfolio of mineral interests across 10 countries, giving it exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead and zinc. Founded in 2016, the company operates without direct mining costs, instead receiving a fixed-percentage of production from its stream and royalty assets.
As of its most recent 2023 annual report, TFPM reported ≈ $85 million in total revenue, driven primarily by copper streams (≈ 55% of revenue) and gold royalties (≈ 30%). The balance sheet showed $120 million of cash and liquid assets, providing a coverage ratio of roughly 1.4 × annual cash-flow needs. The company’s average streaming royalty share is 12-15% of gross metal output, a metric that directly ties upside to commodity price movements.
Key sector drivers that could materially affect TFPM’s performance include: (1) the ongoing “green-energy” transition, which is projected by the International Energy Agency to increase global copper demand by 25% by 2030; (2) persistent macro-economic uncertainty that typically lifts gold prices, with the World Gold Council forecasting a 5-7% price increase year-over-year; and (3) supply-chain constraints in nickel and zinc that have kept price premiums above historical averages, benefitting TFPM’s exposure to those base metals.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of TFPM’s valuation assumptions and scenario modeling, you may find it worthwhile to explore the company’s profile on ValueRay, where you can compare its risk-adjusted returns against peers in the streaming and royalty space.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (204.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 20.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.65pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.41% (prev 17.59%; Δ -10.18pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 284.0m > Net Income 204.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (5.58m) to EBITDA (281.2m) ratio: 0.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.68 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (206.7m) change vs 12m ago 2.27% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 70.16% (prev 54.87%; Δ 15.28pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 18.01% (prev 13.90%; Δ 4.11pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 49.24 (EBITDA TTM 281.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4.33m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 32.97
| (A) 0.01 = (Total Current Assets 63.2m - Total Current Liabilities 37.7m) / Total Assets 2.05b |
| (B) 0.05 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 100.7m / Total Assets 2.05b |
| (C) 0.11 = EBIT TTM 213.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.91b |
| (D) 30.46 = Book Value of Equity 1.98b / Total Liabilities 65.1m |
| Total Rating: 32.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 77.17
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.01% |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.09% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.45)% |
| 7. RoE 11.22% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.43% |
| 9. EPS Trend 43.19% |
What is the price of TFPM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.94%, over one month by +8.37%, over three months by +15.48% and over the past year by +132.81%.
Is TFPM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TFPM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.7 | -1.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.7 | -1.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.5 | 32.4% |
TFPM Fundamental Data Overview January 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 32.8911
P/E Forward = 28.169
P/S = 20.0118
P/B = 3.4634
Beta = 0.048
Revenue TTM = 344.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 213.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 281.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 368.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.58m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.87b USD (6.88b + Debt 14.5m - CCE 24.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 49.24 (Ebit TTM 213.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4.33m)
FCF Yield = 1.01% (FCF TTM 69.1m / Enterprise Value 6.87b)
FCF Margin = 20.09% (FCF TTM 69.1m / Revenue TTM 344.0m)
Net Margin = 59.43% (Net Income TTM 204.5m / Revenue TTM 344.0m)
Gross Margin = 70.16% ((Revenue TTM 344.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 102.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.48% (prev 66.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.36 (Enterprise Value 6.87b / Total Assets 2.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.53% (Interest Expense 1.38m / Debt 14.5m)
Taxrate = 10.13% (6.98m / 68.9m)
NOPAT = 191.6m (EBIT 213.2m * (1 - 10.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 63.2m / Total Current Liabilities 37.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 14.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.02 (Net Debt 5.58m / EBITDA 281.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.08 (Net Debt 5.58m / FCF TTM 69.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.82b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.99% (Net Income 204.5m / Total Assets 2.05b)
RoE = 11.22% (Net Income TTM 204.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.82b)
RoCE = 11.62% (EBIT 213.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.82b + L.T.Debt 13.0m))
RoIC = 10.47% (NOPAT 191.6m / Invested Capital 1.83b)
WACC = 7.01% (E(6.88b)/V(6.90b) * Re(7.01%) + D(14.5m)/V(6.90b) * Rd(9.53%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 7.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈112.6m ; Y1≈138.9m ; Y5≈237.0m
Fair Price DCF = 19.51 (DCF Value 4.03b / Shares Outstanding 206.6m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 43.19 | EPS CAGR: -28.06% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.43 | Revenue CAGR: 28.04% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+0.018 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.11 | Chg30d=+0.035 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+13.3% | Growth Revenue=+14.3%
Additional Sources for TFPM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle