(TGT) Target - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Discount Stores | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 57.294m USD | Total Return: 37.9% in 12m
Industry Rotation: +7.3
Avg Turnover: 524M
EPS Trend: -24.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -88.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Target Corporation (TGT) is a Minneapolis-based general merchandise retailer operating exclusively within the United States. Its inventory spans multiple categories, including apparel, beauty, electronics, home décor, and groceries. The company utilizes a multichannel distribution strategy, fulfilling orders through a nationwide network of physical stores and its proprietary e-commerce platform.
The business model relies on a cheap chic value proposition, differentiating itself from discount competitors through exclusive design partnerships and curated shop-in-shop experiences. As a constituent of the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail sub-industry, Target balances low-margin household essentials with higher-margin discretionary goods to drive foot traffic and basket size. Investors may find it useful to examine ValueRay for deeper insights into these retail trends.
Target’s operational structure integrates in-store amenities and digital services to support a unified commerce approach. Founded in 1902, the company has evolved from a regional department store into a scaled mass-market retailer with a significant footprint in the domestic consumer discretionary and staples sectors.
- Inventory shrink and organized retail crime pressure operating margins and profitability
- Consumer shift toward essential grocery categories reduces high-margin discretionary merchandise sales
- Digital fulfillment and same-day services drive omnichannel revenue growth and market share
- Fluctuating interest rates and inflation impact middle-class consumer discretionary spending power
- Private label brand expansion improves gross margins through differentiated product offerings
| Net Income: 3.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.25% < 20% (prev -1.16%; Δ -0.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 7.00b > Net Income 3.61b |
| Net Debt (15.76b) to EBITDA (8.20b): 1.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (455.8m) vs 12m ago -0.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.65% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2.54k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 184.7% > 50% (prev 188.5%; Δ -3.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.19 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 8.20b / Interest Expense TTM 459.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 18.07b - Total Current Liabilities 19.38b) / Total Assets 58.01b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 9.55b / Total Assets 58.01b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 5.13b / Avg Total Assets 57.10b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 9.18b / Total Liabilities 41.62b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.22 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 1.81b/1.54b, Revenue 105.47b/105.88b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 25.65% / 28.00%) |
| AQI: 1.36 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 105.47b / 105.88b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 3.61b - CFO 7.00b) / TA 58.01b) |
| Beneish M = -2.64 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.34%, over one month by -2.92%, over three months by +11.86% and over the past year by +37.93%.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 23
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 129.5 | 2.7% |
P/E Forward = 15.7729
P/S = 0.5386
P/B = 3.4946
P/EG = 2.3892
Revenue TTM = 105.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.13b USD
EBITDA TTM = 8.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.33b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.13b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 19.29b USD (corrected: LT Debt 14.33b + ST Debt 1.13b) + Leases 3.83b
Net Debt = 15.76b USD (calculated: Debt 19.29b - CCE 3.53b)
Enterprise Value = 73.05b USD (57.29b + Debt 19.29b - CCE 3.53b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.19 (Ebit TTM 5.13b / Interest Expense TTM 459.0m)
EV/FCF = 17.56x (Enterprise Value 73.05b / FCF TTM 4.16b)
FCF Yield = 5.70% (FCF TTM 4.16b / Enterprise Value 73.05b)
FCF Margin = 3.95% (FCF TTM 4.16b / Revenue TTM 105.47b)
Net Margin = 3.42% (Net Income TTM 3.61b / Revenue TTM 105.47b)
Gross Margin = 25.65% ((Revenue TTM 105.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.35% (prev 24.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 73.05b / Total Assets 58.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.58% (Interest Expense 112.0m / Debt 19.29b)
Taxrate = 22.72% (277.0m / 1.22b)
NOPAT = 3.97b (EBIT 5.13b * (1 - 22.72%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 18.07b / Total Current Liabilities 19.38b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 19.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.92 (Net Debt 15.76b / EBITDA 8.20b)
Debt / FCF = 3.79 (Net Debt 15.76b / FCF TTM 4.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.33% (Net Income 3.61b / Total Assets 58.01b)
RoE = 22.76% (Net Income TTM 3.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.87b)
RoCE = 17.00% (EBIT 5.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.87b + L.T.Debt 14.33b))
RoIC = 10.95% (NOPAT 3.97b / Invested Capital 36.23b)
WACC = 7.70% (E(57.29b)/V(76.59b) * Re(10.14%) + D(19.29b)/V(76.59b) * Rd(0.58%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.90 | Cagr: -0.70%
[DCF] Terminal Value 79.34% ; FCFF base≈3.91b ; Y1≈3.84b ; Y5≈3.92b
[DCF] Fair Price = 130.1 (EV 74.83b - Net Debt 15.76b = Equity 59.07b / Shares 454.2m; r=7.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -2.77% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -24.39 | EPS CAGR: -2.57% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -88.17 | Revenue CAGR: -0.95% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=-0.65% | Revisions=-5% | Analysts=30
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=+1.19% | Revisions=-7% | Analysts=30
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=8.23 | Chg30d=+2.96% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=8.78 | Chg30d=+3.17% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+6.7% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65%