(TGT) Target - Ratings and Ratios
Apparel, Beauty, Groceries, Electronics, Home Goods
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.95% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.97% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.45% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 48.1% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 47.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.87 |
| Alpha | -38.49 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.325 |
| Beta | 0.927 |
| Beta Downside | 0.822 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 49.77% |
| Mean DD | 23.92% |
| Median DD | 22.37% |
Description: TGT Target September 29, 2025
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is a U.S.-based general-merchandise retailer that sells a broad assortment of categories-including apparel, beauty, food & beverage, electronics, home goods, and household essentials-through a network of physical stores and its digital platform, Target.com. The company also leverages periodic design collaborations and shop-in-shop concepts to differentiate its in-store experience.
From a financial-performance standpoint, Target reported FY 2024 comparable sales growth of 5.2% YoY, with digital sales accounting for roughly 23% of total revenue-an incremental increase of 2.5 percentage points versus the prior year. Its operating margin expanded to 7.1% in Q3 2024, reflecting both higher-margin private-label sales and continued supply-chain efficiencies. These metrics suggest that the retailer is successfully extracting incremental earnings from both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channels, though the margin expansion assumes stable freight-cost trends and no material slowdown in consumer discretionary spending.
Key macro drivers that could materially affect Target’s outlook include: (1) the trajectory of U.S. inflation, which influences discretionary purchase power and the pricing power of everyday essentials; (2) the health of the labor market, as wage growth pressures can compress operating margins if not offset by productivity gains; and (3) the competitive dynamics of the broader consumer-staples merchandise retail sub-industry, particularly the ongoing price-competition with Walmart and the rapid expansion of Amazon’s grocery and household-goods offerings. The base-rate probability of a sustained inflationary environment above 3% over the next 12 months is roughly 30% according to Bloomberg’s consensus, which would likely erode net sales growth if consumer confidence weakens.
For a deeper quantitative view of Target’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s interactive model worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (4.04b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 6.32b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.45pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.51% (prev -1.15%; Δ 0.64pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 7.58b > Net Income 4.04b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (16.22b) to EBITDA (8.74b) ratio: 1.86 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (455.7m) change vs 12m ago -1.26% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 25.47% (prev 26.07%; Δ -0.59pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 177.8% (prev 183.8%; Δ -5.98pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 13.06 (EBITDA TTM 8.74b / Interest Expense TTM 436.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.26
| (A) -0.01 = (Total Current Assets 20.70b - Total Current Liabilities 21.24b) / Total Assets 59.99b |
| (B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.78b / Total Assets 59.99b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 5.69b / Avg Total Assets 59.26b |
| (D) 0.19 = Book Value of Equity 8.34b / Total Liabilities 44.49b |
| Total Rating: 1.26 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.58
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 9.70% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.25% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.86 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.99)% |
| 7. RoE 26.73% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -26.48% |
| 9. EPS Trend 13.84% |
What is the price of TGT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.07%, over one month by +1.17%, over three months by +0.09% and over the past year by -27.02%.
Is TGT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 25
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TGT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 96.5 | 5.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 96.5 | 5.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 85 | -7% |
TGT Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.8848
P/E Forward = 11.3766
P/S = 0.3877
P/B = 2.6232
P/EG = 2.3711
Beta = 1.125
Revenue TTM = 105.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.69b USD
EBITDA TTM = 8.74b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.30b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.13b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 57.02b USD (40.81b + Debt 20.04b - CCE 3.82b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.06 (Ebit TTM 5.69b / Interest Expense TTM 436.0m)
FCF Yield = 9.70% (FCF TTM 5.53b / Enterprise Value 57.02b)
FCF Margin = 5.25% (FCF TTM 5.53b / Revenue TTM 105.37b)
Net Margin = 3.84% (Net Income TTM 4.04b / Revenue TTM 105.37b)
Gross Margin = 25.47% ((Revenue TTM 105.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.12% (prev 26.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 57.02b / Total Assets 59.99b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 114.0m / Debt 20.04b)
Taxrate = 21.38% (264.0m / 1.24b)
NOPAT = 4.48b (EBIT 5.69b * (1 - 21.38%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 20.70b / Total Current Liabilities 21.24b)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 20.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.86 (Net Debt 16.22b / EBITDA 8.74b)
Debt / FCF = 2.93 (Net Debt 16.22b / FCF TTM 5.53b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.74% (Net Income 4.04b / Total Assets 59.99b)
RoE = 26.73% (Net Income TTM 4.04b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.13b)
RoCE = 19.34% (EBIT 5.69b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.13b + L.T.Debt 14.30b))
RoIC = 14.46% (NOPAT 4.48b / Invested Capital 30.97b)
WACC = 6.47% (E(40.81b)/V(60.85b) * Re(9.43%) + D(20.04b)/V(60.85b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.05% ; FCFE base≈5.14b ; Y1≈5.35b ; Y5≈6.14b
Fair Price DCF = 187.1 (DCF Value 84.70b / Shares Outstanding 452.8m; 5y FCF grow 4.30% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 13.84 | EPS CAGR: -14.41% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -26.48 | Revenue CAGR: -5.17% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=-0.031 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=22
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=7.70 | Chg30d=-0.248 | Revisions Net=-16 | Growth EPS=+5.5% | Growth Revenue=+1.8%
Additional Sources for TGT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle