(THS) Treehouse Foods - Ratings and Ratios
Snacks, Beverages, Mixes, Groceries, Bakery
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 58.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.47% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.52 |
| Alpha | -39.68 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.28 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.433 |
| Beta | 0.600 |
| Beta Downside | 0.466 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 70.68% |
| Mean DD | 31.82% |
| Median DD | 30.32% |
Description: THS Treehouse Foods November 15, 2025
TreeHouse Foods (NYSE:THS) is a contract manufacturer and distributor of private-label snack and beverage products across the United States and select international markets. Its portfolio spans crackers, pretzels, frozen bakery items, cookies, candies, non-dairy creamers, coffee mixes, broths, powdered drinks, teas, ready-to-drink beverages, as well as grocery staples such as pickles, refrigerated dough, hot cereal, cheese, and puddings, with a growing emphasis on natural, organic, and gluten-free lines.
Key operating metrics from the most recent fiscal year show net sales of roughly $2.0 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin hovering near 5%, reflecting modest profitability in a low-margin private-label environment. The business is highly sensitive to commodity price swings-particularly corn, wheat, and dairy inputs-and to macro-economic factors that influence retail discretionary spending, such as inflation and consumer confidence. A sector-wide driver is the continued shift toward value-oriented private-label products, which has buoyed demand for contract manufacturers like TreeHouse despite a gradual rebalancing from food-service to retail channels.
For a deeper dive into TreeHouse’s valuation dynamics, consider reviewing the company’s detailed financials and comparable peer analysis on ValueRay to assess whether current pricing reflects its growth prospects and cost-structure risks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (-241.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 200.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.64pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6.59% (prev 8.43%; Δ -1.85pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 233.7m > Net Income -241.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Current Ratio 1.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (50.5m) change vs 12m ago -2.70% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 17.66% (prev 15.58%; Δ 2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 86.14% (prev 84.62%; Δ 1.52pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -1.98 (EBITDA TTM 1.30m / Interest Expense TTM 81.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.60
| (A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 968.6m - Total Current Liabilities 748.8m) / Total Assets 3.78b |
| (B) -0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -522.5m / Total Assets 3.78b |
| (C) -0.04 = EBIT TTM -161.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.87b |
| (D) -0.24 = Book Value of Equity -601.6m / Total Liabilities 2.51b |
| Total Rating: -0.60 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.50
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.60% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.02% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda data missing |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -9.81)% |
| 7. RoE -16.52% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -36.35% |
| 9. EPS Trend 24.22% |
What is the price of THS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.74%, over one month by +1.74%, over three months by +37.51% and over the past year by -29.42%.
Is THS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the THS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22 | -8.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | -8.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.2 | -3.3% |
THS Fundamental Data Overview December 09, 2025
P/E Forward = 7.8555
P/S = 0.3573
P/B = 0.944
P/EG = 0.2264
Beta = 0.179
Revenue TTM = 3.34b USD
EBIT TTM = -161.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.30m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.61b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.80b USD (1.19b + Debt 1.63b - CCE 21.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.98 (Ebit TTM -161.5m / Interest Expense TTM 81.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.60% (FCF TTM 100.8m / Enterprise Value 2.80b)
FCF Margin = 3.02% (FCF TTM 100.8m / Revenue TTM 3.34b)
Net Margin = -7.25% (Net Income TTM -241.8m / Revenue TTM 3.34b)
Gross Margin = 17.66% ((Revenue TTM 3.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.79% (prev 17.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 2.80b / Total Assets 3.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.46% (Interest Expense 23.9m / Debt 1.63b)
Taxrate = 0.64% (-1.70m / -267.5m)
NOPAT = -160.5m (EBIT -161.5m * (1 - 0.64%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 968.6m / Total Current Liabilities 748.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 1.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1240 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 1.61b / EBITDA 1.30m)
Debt / FCF = 15.99 (Net Debt 1.61b / FCF TTM 100.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.40% (Net Income -241.8m / Total Assets 3.78b)
RoE = -16.52% (Net Income TTM -241.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.46b)
RoCE = -5.47% (EBIT -161.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.46b + L.T.Debt 1.49b))
RoIC = -5.49% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -160.5m / Invested Capital 2.92b)
WACC = 4.31% (E(1.19b)/V(2.82b) * Re(8.23%) + D(1.63b)/V(2.82b) * Rd(1.46%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.44%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.63% ; FCFE base≈100.8m ; Y1≈66.2m ; Y5≈30.3m
Fair Price DCF = 11.41 (DCF Value 576.4m / Shares Outstanding 50.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 24.22 | EPS CAGR: 43.84% | SUE: -1.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -36.35 | Revenue CAGR: -8.36% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.92 | Chg30d=-0.163 | Revisions Net=-5 | Growth EPS=+15.4% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%
Additional Sources for THS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle