(TK) Teekay - Overview
Tankers, Marine Services, Crude Transportation, Ship-To-Ship
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 13.25% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 72.46% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 36.51% |
| Payout Consistency | 69.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 3.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.47 |
| Alpha | 59.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.480 |
| Beta Downside | 0.876 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.17% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.68 |
Description: TK Teekay December 25, 2025
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (NYSE:TK) is a Bermuda-registered provider of crude oil and refined product marine transportation, operating two segments: Tankers and Marine Services. As of 1 Mar 2025 the fleet comprised roughly 48 owned or charter-in vessels, ranging from VLCCs to medium-size product carriers, and the company also delivers ship-to-ship transfer, commercial management, and maintenance services to a diversified client base that includes oil majors, traders, utilities, and government agencies.
Key operational metrics that analysts watch include fleet utilization (averaging ≈ 85 % in 2024), day-rate exposure to the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) – which rose 12 % year-over-year during the 2023-24 freight-rate rally – and the average vessel age of about 12 years, which influences both fuel efficiency and regulatory compliance costs. The segment’s earnings are highly sensitive to global crude production trends; a 5 % change in OPEC-plus output typically translates to a 3-4 % swing in Teekay’s EBITDA, given the tight balance between spot and time-charter contracts.
From a valuation perspective, Teekay’s 2023 EBITDA margin of roughly 15 % and its leverage ratio of 2.3× net debt/EBITDA sit near the median for the oil-and-gas transportation sub-industry, but the company’s exposure to emerging ESG regulations – such as IMO 2020 sulfur caps and upcoming carbon-intensity standards – adds a layer of execution risk that investors must model explicitly. For a deeper dive into Teekay’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a granular data set worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 78.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -16.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 102.4% < 20% (prev 66.39%; Δ 36.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 248.7m > Net Income 78.9m |
| Net Debt (-797.7m) to EBITDA (308.8m): -2.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (85.3m) vs 12m ago -10.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.13% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 2777 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.07% > 50% (prev 59.68%; Δ -15.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 91.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 308.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m) |
Altman Z'' 5.60
| A: 0.45 (Total Current Assets 1.24b - Total Current Liabilities 219.8m) / Total Assets 2.25b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -219.6m / Total Assets 2.25b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 221.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.25b) |
| D: 2.19 (Book Value of Equity 656.7m / Total Liabilities 299.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.60 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.66
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 135.6m/180.5m, Revenue 992.5m/1.34b) |
| GMI: 1.26 (GM 28.13% / 35.45%) |
| AQI: 1.64 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 0.74 (Revenue 992.5m / 1.34b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 78.9m - CFO 248.7m) / TA 2.25b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.26%, over one month by +10.89%, over three months by +7.16% and over the past year by +64.70%.
Is TK a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the TK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | -50.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | -50.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.6 | 63.5% |
TK Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/S = 0.829
P/B = 1.2531
P/EG = 0.27
Revenue TTM = 992.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 221.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 308.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 53.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 53.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -797.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 57.6m USD (855.2m + Debt 53.0m - CCE 850.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 91.43 (Ebit TTM 221.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
EV/FCF = 0.31x (Enterprise Value 57.6m / FCF TTM 183.2m)
FCF Yield = 318.2% (FCF TTM 183.2m / Enterprise Value 57.6m)
FCF Margin = 18.46% (FCF TTM 183.2m / Revenue TTM 992.5m)
Net Margin = 7.95% (Net Income TTM 78.9m / Revenue TTM 992.5m)
Gross Margin = 28.13% ((Revenue TTM 992.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 713.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.39% (prev 29.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.03 (Enterprise Value 57.6m / Total Assets 2.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.47% (Interest Expense 777.0k / Debt 53.0m)
Taxrate = 0.10% (405.0k / 402.0m)
NOPAT = 220.9m (EBIT 221.2m * (1 - 0.10%))
Current Ratio = 5.62 (Total Current Assets 1.24b / Total Current Liabilities 219.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 53.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 656.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.58 (Net Debt -797.7m / EBITDA 308.8m)
Debt / FCF = -4.35 (Net Debt -797.7m / FCF TTM 183.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.50% (Net Income 78.9m / Total Assets 2.25b)
RoE = 7.69% (Net Income TTM 78.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 20.49% (EBIT 221.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 53.0m))
RoIC = 30.53% (NOPAT 220.9m / Invested Capital 723.6m)
WACC = 7.33% (E(855.2m)/V(908.3m) * Re(7.69%) + D(53.0m)/V(908.3m) * Rd(1.47%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 7.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.48% ; FCFF base≈331.3m ; Y1≈408.6m ; Y5≈696.0m
Fair Price DCF = 168.9 (EV 13.61b - Net Debt -797.7m = Equity 14.41b / Shares 85.3m; r=7.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 4.68 | EPS CAGR: 44.10% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 25.67 | Revenue CAGR: 12.63% | SUE: 2.24 | # QB: 2