TKR Stock Analysis: Timken | NYSE
Tools & Accessories | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.771m USD | 12M Return: 75.9% | US8873891043 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 124M
EPS Trend: -77.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -29.9%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is a U.S.-based industrial manufacturer that operates through two main segments: Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment produces a wide range of bearing products-including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings, as well as ball, plain, and housed bearings-sold under the Timken, GGB, and Fafnir brands to industries such as wind energy, metals and mining, aerospace, rail, and automotive.
The Industrial Motion segment supplies engineered components and services such as industrial drives, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion products, chains, belts, couplings, filtration systems, seals, clutches, and brakes, alongside drivetrain and bearing repair services. This segment serves diverse end markets including solar energy, automation, packaging and logistics, medical, marine, and passenger rail, marketed under a broad portfolio of brands including Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive, Rollon, Nadella, Groeneveld, BEKA, Diamond, and Timken Belts.
Founded in 1899 and headquartered in North Canton, Ohio, Timken is classified within the GICS Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sub-industry. The company has been publicly traded since 1985, and its diversified product portfolio positions it across multiple industrial cycles, with exposure to both traditional heavy industries and emerging segments such as renewable energy and automation.
- Steel input costs pressure bearings segment operating margins
- Wind energy and industrial capex drive engineered bearings revenue growth
- Industrial Motion acquisitions diversify revenue mix and expand segment margins
| Net Income: 258.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.42% < 20% (prev 40.98%; Δ -0.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 530.8m > Net Income 258.7m |
| Net Debt (1.80b) to EBITDA (648.1m): 2.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.1m) vs 12m ago -0.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.67% > 18% (prev 30.76%; Δ -2.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.80% > 50% (prev 66.25%; Δ 3.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM 411.7m / Interest Expense TTM 99.4m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 2.84b - Total Current Liabilities 918.3m) / Total Assets 6.83b |
| B: 0.40 (Retained Earnings 2.76b / Total Assets 6.83b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 411.7m / Avg Total Assets 6.82b) |
| D: 0.92 (Book Value of Equity 3.19b / Total Liabilities 3.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.54 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 996.9m/938.8m, Revenue 4.76b/4.51b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 30.76% / 28.67%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 4.76b / 4.51b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 258.7m - CFO 530.8m) / TA 6.83b) |
| Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 133.50 with a total of 765,089 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.43%, over one month by -4.37%, over three months by +14.72% and over the past year by +75.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 120.90 (which is 9.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Timken has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TKR.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 147.3 | 10.3% |
P/E Trailing = 35.3547
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 1.8425
P/B = 2.8272
P/EG = 1.8629
Revenue TTM = 4.76b USD
EBIT TTM = 411.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 648.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 127.4m
Net Debt = 1.80b USD (calculated: Debt 2.20b - CCE 399.1m)
Enterprise Value = 10.6b USD (8.77b + Debt 2.20b - CCE 399.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.14 (Ebit TTM 411.7m / Interest Expense TTM 99.4m)
EV/FCF = 27.43x (Enterprise Value 10.6b / FCF TTM 385.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.65% (FCF TTM 385.5m / Enterprise Value 10.6b)
FCF Margin = 8.10% (FCF TTM 385.5m / Revenue TTM 4.76b)
Net Margin = 5.43% (Net Income TTM 258.7m / Revenue TTM 4.76b)
Gross Margin = 28.67% ((Revenue TTM 4.76b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.67% (prev 30.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 10.6b / Total Assets 6.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.51% (Interest Expense 99.4m / Debt 2.20b)
Taxrate = 25.86% (98.8m / 382.1m)
NOPAT = 305.2m (EBIT 411.7m * (1 - 25.86%))
Current Ratio = 3.10 (Total Current Assets 2.84b / Total Current Liabilities 918.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 2.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.78 (Net Debt 1.80b / EBITDA 648.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.68 (Net Debt 1.80b / FCF TTM 385.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.79% (Net Income 258.7m / Total Assets 6.83b)
RoE = 8.13% (Net Income TTM 258.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.18b)
RoCE = 7.89% (EBIT 411.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.18b + L.T.Debt 2.04b))
RoIC = 5.35% (NOPAT 305.2m / Invested Capital 5.71b)
WACC = 9.06% (E(8.77b)/V(11.0b) * Re(10.49%) + D(2.20b)/V(11.0b) * Rd(4.51%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.36 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.72% ; FCFF base≈357.2m ; Y1≈409.5m ; Y5≈602.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 90.39 (EV 8.07b - Net Debt 1.80b = Equity 6.26b / Shares 69.3m; r=9.06% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -77.59 | EPS CAGR: -8.60% | SUE: 1.86 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -29.89 | Revenue CAGR: -0.68% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=-1.02% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.24 | Chg30d=+1.88% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+17.0% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.28 | Chg30d=+0.91% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+16.7% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)