TKR Stock Analysis: Timken | NYSE
Tools & Accessories | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.162m USD | 12M Return: 58% | US8873891043 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 110M
EPS Trend: -77.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -29.9%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) is a U.S.-based industrial manufacturer specializing in engineered bearings and industrial motion products, operating two main segments: Engineered Bearings (tapered, spherical, cylindrical roller, ball, plain, and housed bearings) and Industrial Motion (drives, lubrication systems, linear motion, chains, belts, couplings, seals, clutches, brakes, and repair services). The company sells into a highly diversified set of end markets-including wind and solar energy, automotive, aerospace, rail, construction, agriculture, mining, food and beverage, and medical-and maintains a large portfolio of brands such as Timken, GGB, Philadelphia Gear, Rollon, Cone Drive, Groeneveld, Lovejoy, and Spinea. Founded in 1899 and headquartered in North Canton, Ohio, Timken traces its roots to the invention of the tapered roller bearing, a foundational component for reducing friction in rotating machinery. As a mid-cap industrial machinery company, its business model benefits from a broad installed base of equipment across multiple cyclical end markets, which can provide some diversification but also ties results to global manufacturing capex and industrial production trends.
- Wind energy bearing demand accelerates on renewable energy buildout
- Industrial Motion margins expand on automation and M&A synergies
- Steel input costs pressure Engineered Bearings segment margins
| Net Income: 258.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.42% < 20% (prev 40.98%; Δ -0.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 530.8m > Net Income 258.7m |
| Net Debt (1.80b) to EBITDA (648.1m): 2.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.1m) vs 12m ago -0.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.67% > 18% (prev 30.76%; Δ -2.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.80% > 50% (prev 66.25%; Δ 3.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM 411.7m / Interest Expense TTM 99.4m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 2.84b - Total Current Liabilities 918.3m) / Total Assets 6.83b |
| B: 0.40 (Retained Earnings 2.76b / Total Assets 6.83b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 411.7m / Avg Total Assets 6.82b) |
| D: 0.92 (Book Value of Equity 3.19b / Total Liabilities 3.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.54 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 996.9m/938.8m, Revenue 4.76b/4.51b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 30.76% / 28.67%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 4.76b / 4.51b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 258.7m - CFO 530.8m) / TA 6.83b) |
| Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 117.26 with a total of 878,470 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.51%, over one month by -2.65%, over three months by -18.07% and over the past year by +57.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 109.70 (which is 6.4% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Timken has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TKR.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 147.8 | 26% |
P/E Trailing = 31.8293
P/E Forward = 15.3846
P/S = 1.7097
P/B = 2.5519
P/EG = 1.2815
Revenue TTM = 4.76b USD
EBIT TTM = 411.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 648.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 127.4m
Net Debt = 1.80b USD (calculated: Debt 2.20b - CCE 399.1m)
Enterprise Value = 9.97b USD (8.16b + Debt 2.20b - CCE 399.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.14 (Ebit TTM 411.7m / Interest Expense TTM 99.4m)
EV/FCF = 25.85x (Enterprise Value 9.97b / FCF TTM 385.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.87% (FCF TTM 385.5m / Enterprise Value 9.97b)
FCF Margin = 8.10% (FCF TTM 385.5m / Revenue TTM 4.76b)
Net Margin = 5.43% (Net Income TTM 258.7m / Revenue TTM 4.76b)
Gross Margin = 28.67% ((Revenue TTM 4.76b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.67% (prev 30.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.46 (Enterprise Value 9.97b / Total Assets 6.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.51% (Interest Expense 99.4m / Debt 2.20b)
Taxrate = 25.86% (98.8m / 382.1m)
NOPAT = 305.2m (EBIT 411.7m * (1 - 25.86%))
Current Ratio = 3.10 (Total Current Assets 2.84b / Total Current Liabilities 918.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 2.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.78 (Net Debt 1.80b / EBITDA 648.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.68 (Net Debt 1.80b / FCF TTM 385.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.79% (Net Income 258.7m / Total Assets 6.83b)
RoE = 8.13% (Net Income TTM 258.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.18b)
RoCE = 7.89% (EBIT 411.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.18b + L.T.Debt 2.04b))
RoIC = 5.35% (NOPAT 305.2m / Invested Capital 5.71b)
WACC = 8.96% (E(8.16b)/V(10.4b) * Re(10.47%) + D(2.20b)/V(10.4b) * Rd(4.51%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.36 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.03% ; FCFF base≈357.2m ; Y1≈409.5m ; Y5≈602.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 91.98 (EV 8.20b - Net Debt 1.80b = Equity 6.39b / Shares 69.5m; r=8.96% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -77.59 | EPS CAGR: -8.60% | SUE: 1.86 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -29.89 | Revenue CAGR: -0.68% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.48 | Chg30d=-1.83% | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.27 | Chg30d=+1.85% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+17.7% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.28 | Chg30d=+0.57% | Revisions=+7% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +11% (up=18, down=14)