(TKR) Timken - Overview
Stock: Bearings, Industrial Drives, Lubrication Systems, Clutches, Seals
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.80% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.08% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.96% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.57% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.89 |
| Alpha | 13.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.255 |
| Beta Downside | 1.278 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.61% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.27 |
Description: TKR Timken January 10, 2026
Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) is a century-old manufacturer of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, operating globally from its North Canton, Ohio headquarters. It reports under two primary segments: Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion.
The Engineered Bearings segment supplies a broad portfolio-including tapered, spherical, cylindrical roller, plain, metal-polymer, and precision ball bearings-to end-markets such as wind energy, agriculture, construction, automotive, aerospace, and rail, under the Timken, GGB, and Fafnir brands. The Industrial Motion segment delivers drives, lubrication systems, linear motion components, chains, belts, couplings, seals, and drivetrain repair services to sectors like solar, automation, marine, packaging, medical, and passenger rail, leveraging brands such as Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive, Rollon, and Timken Belts.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue was approximately $5.2 billion with an operating margin near 12%; Q4 2023 earnings per share were $2.05, and free cash flow topped $400 million, supporting a 3.2% dividend yield. The business is sensitive to macro-drivers like global infrastructure spending, renewable-energy capex (especially wind turbine and solar projects), and cyclical demand for industrial equipment, while higher interest rates can suppress capital-intensive purchases.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of Timken’s valuation metrics and peer comparisons.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 288.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.64% < 20% (prev 37.10%; Δ -0.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 554.3m > Net Income 288.4m |
| Net Debt (1.76b) to EBITDA (746.1m): 2.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.2m) vs 12m ago -0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.68% > 18% (prev 0.32%; Δ 2837 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.02% > 50% (prev 71.33%; Δ -1.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.79 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 746.1m / Interest Expense TTM 107.7m) |
Altman Z'' 4.47
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 2.60b - Total Current Liabilities 922.1m) / Total Assets 6.68b |
| B: 0.40 (Retained Earnings 2.64b / Total Assets 6.68b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 516.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.54b) |
| D: 0.96 (Book Value of Equity 3.18b / Total Liabilities 3.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.47 = AA |
Beneish M -2.95
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 827.0m/805.4m, Revenue 4.58b/4.57b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 28.68% / 31.53%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 4.58b / 4.57b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 288.4m - CFO 554.3m) / TA 6.68b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TKR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.63%, over one month by +17.04%, over three months by +34.99% and over the past year by +32.43%.
Is TKR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TKR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 95.6 | -9.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 95.6 | -9.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 115.8 | 9.2% |
TKR Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.5017
P/S = 1.553
P/B = 2.1652
P/EG = 1.3749
Revenue TTM = 4.58b USD
EBIT TTM = 516.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 746.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.09b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 38.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.76b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.87b USD (7.12b + Debt 2.12b - CCE 364.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.79 (Ebit TTM 516.0m / Interest Expense TTM 107.7m)
EV/FCF = 21.85x (Enterprise Value 8.87b / FCF TTM 406.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.58% (FCF TTM 406.1m / Enterprise Value 8.87b)
FCF Margin = 8.86% (FCF TTM 406.1m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Net Margin = 6.29% (Net Income TTM 288.4m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Gross Margin = 28.68% ((Revenue TTM 4.58b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.89% (prev 30.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 8.87b / Total Assets 6.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 24.1m / Debt 2.12b)
Taxrate = 10.70% (7.90m / 73.8m)
NOPAT = 460.8m (EBIT 516.0m * (1 - 10.70%))
Current Ratio = 2.82 (Total Current Assets 2.60b / Total Current Liabilities 922.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 2.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.36 (Net Debt 1.76b / EBITDA 746.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.33 (Net Debt 1.76b / FCF TTM 406.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.41% (Net Income 288.4m / Total Assets 6.68b)
RoE = 9.35% (Net Income TTM 288.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.08b)
RoCE = 9.97% (EBIT 516.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.08b + L.T.Debt 2.09b))
RoIC = 8.87% (NOPAT 460.8m / Invested Capital 5.20b)
WACC = 8.35% (E(7.12b)/V(9.24b) * Re(10.54%) + D(2.12b)/V(9.24b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 10.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.31% ; FCFF base≈365.9m ; Y1≈405.1m ; Y5≈525.7m
Fair Price DCF = 96.60 (EV 8.49b - Net Debt 1.76b = Equity 6.73b / Shares 69.7m; r=8.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 12.34% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -52.44 | EPS CAGR: -8.79% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -12.61 | Revenue CAGR: -0.32% | SUE: 2.35 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.86 | Chg30d=-0.130 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+9.9% | Growth Revenue=+3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.58 | Chg30d=+0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+12.4% | Growth Revenue=+3.6%