TM Stock Analysis: Toyota Motor | NYSE
Auto Manufacturers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 206.733m USD | 12M Return: 7.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 97.6M
EPS Trend: 62.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) is a Japanese multinational automobile manufacturer founded in 1933 and headquartered in Toyota, Japan. It designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells a broad range of passenger vehicles, minivans, commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories across virtually every major region worldwide, including Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, and the Middle East. The company offers its vehicles under two main brands: the mass-market Toyota nameplate and the luxury Lexus brand. Its product portfolio spans subcompact and compact cars, mini-vehicles, mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, minivans, trucks, and buses.
The company reports through three operating segments: Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other. In addition to its core vehicle business, Toyota develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries, and provides a suite of financial services including retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. It also operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, and engages in telecommunications and other ancillary businesses.
As an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listed on the NYSE, TM provides U.S. investors indirect exposure to a Japan-domiciled large-cap in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry). Toyotas combined automotive manufacturing and captive finance operations mirror a common industry structure where vehicle sales are supported by in-house lending and leasing arms that generate recurring interest income across dealer and retail channels. The company is widely regarded as a pioneer of mass-market hybrid powertrain technology, a positioning reflected in its stated focus on battery and hybrid electric vehicles alongside conventional models.
- Yen volatility drives ADR translated earnings swings
- Chinese automakers like BYD pressure global market share
- US auto tariffs threaten Japan-built vehicle margins
| Net Income: 3886b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.10% < 20% (prev 15.91%; Δ 2.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 5469b > Net Income 3886b |
| Net Debt (31389b) to EBITDA (7537b): 4.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.30b) vs 12m ago -0.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.70% > 18% (prev 19.94%; Δ -3.24% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.27% > 50% (prev 51.32%; Δ -0.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 58.28 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5121b / Interest Expense TTM 87.9b) |
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 43010b - Total Current Liabilities 33751b) / Total Assets 105980b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 38878b / Total Assets 105980b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 5121b / Avg Total Assets 99791b) |
| D: 0.62 (Book Value of Equity 40092b / Total Liabilities 64782b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.76 = A |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 17586b/15349b, Revenue 51159b/48037b) |
| GMI: 1.19 (GM 19.94% / 16.70%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 51159b / 48037b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 3886b - CFO 5469b) / TA 105980b) |
| Beneish M = -2.76 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 174.59 with a total of 502,400 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.86%, over one month by -1.45%, over three months by -14.59% and over the past year by +7.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 170.10 (which is 2.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Toyota Motor has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TM.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 256.5 | 46.9% |
Market Cap JPY = 33394b (207b USD * 161.53 USD.JPY)
P/E Trailing = 9.5718
P/E Forward = 10.3093
P/S = 0.0041
P/B = 0.8142
P/EG = 1.5387
Revenue TTM = 51159b JPY
EBIT TTM = 5121b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 7537b JPY
Long Term Debt = 25624b JPY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17657b JPY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44104b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 711b
Net Debt = 31389b JPY (calculated: Debt 44104b - CCE 12715b)
Enterprise Value = 64783b JPY (33394b + Debt 44104b - CCE 12715b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 58.28 (Ebit TTM 5121b / Interest Expense TTM 87.9b)
EV/FCF = 137.9x (Enterprise Value 64783b / FCF TTM 470b)
FCF Yield = 0.73% (FCF TTM 470b / Enterprise Value 64783b)
FCF Margin = 0.92% (FCF TTM 470b / Revenue TTM 51159b)
Net Margin = 7.60% (Net Income TTM 3886b / Revenue TTM 51159b)
Gross Margin = 16.70% ((Revenue TTM 51159b - Cost of Revenue TTM 42617b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.14% (prev 17.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 64783b / Total Assets 105980b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.20% (Interest Expense 87.9b / Debt 44104b)
Taxrate = 22.63% (1177b / 5202b)
NOPAT = 3962b (EBIT 5121b * (1 - 22.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.27 (Total Current Assets 43010b / Total Current Liabilities 33751b)
Debt / Equity = 1.10 (Debt 44104b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40092b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.16 (Net Debt 31389b / EBITDA 7537b)
Debt / FCF = 66.80 (Net Debt 31389b / FCF TTM 470b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 38156b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.89% (Net Income 3886b / Total Assets 105980b)
RoE = 10.18% (Net Income TTM 3886b / Total Stockholder Equity 38156b)
RoCE = 8.03% (EBIT 5121b / Capital Employed (Equity 38156b + L.T.Debt 25624b))
RoIC = 4.54% (NOPAT 3962b / Invested Capital 87329b)
WACC = 3.66% (E(33394b)/V(77497b) * Re(8.28%) + D(44104b)/V(77497b) * Rd(0.20%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.90 | Cagr: -1.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈470b ; Y1≈472b ; Y5≈500b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7773b - Net Debt 31389b = -23616b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 62.65 | EPS CAGR: 50.84% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.01 | Revenue CAGR: 8.86% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.94 | Chg30d=-17.89% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.20 | Chg30d=-17.98% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=17.54 | Chg30d=-20.93% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-7.0% | GrowthRev=+190.3%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=25.37 | Chg30d=+1.86% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+44.7% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)