TM Stock Analysis: Toyota Motor | NYSE

Passenger Cars, Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles, Financing

Total Rating 38

Safety 73

Buy Signal -0.28

Auto Manufacturers
Industry Rotation: +9.0

Market Cap: 226B
Avg Turnover: 73.2M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility27.5%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.71%

VaR vs Median3.85%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.00

Rel. Str. IBD14.6

Rel. Str. Peer Group60.4

Character TTM

Beta0.222

Beta Downside0.132

Hurst Exponent0.472

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD34.92%

CAGR/Max DD0.24

CAGR/Mean DD0.48

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 26.55%
EPS Trend: 37.7%

Last SUE: 0.22
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 7.75%
Rev. Trend: 97.9%

Last SUE: 0.14
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt While Negative Cash Flow

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +3.3% 26

Feb -1.5% 28

Mar -0.6% 5

Apr -0.2% 19

May +0.3% 5

Jun -1.5% 29

Jul +3.6% 32

Aug +0.1% 0

Sep +0.4% 23

Oct -0.1% 0

Nov +2.4% 29

Dec +0.2% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TM Toyota Motor

Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) is a Japanese multinational automobile manufacturer founded in 1933 and headquartered in Toyota, Japan. It designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells a broad range of passenger vehicles, minivans, commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories across virtually every major region worldwide, including Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, and the Middle East. The company offers its vehicles under two main brands: the mass-market Toyota nameplate and the luxury Lexus brand. Its product portfolio spans subcompact and compact cars, mini-vehicles, mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, minivans, trucks, and buses.

The company reports through three operating segments: Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other. In addition to its core vehicle business, Toyota develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries, and provides a suite of financial services including retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. It also operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, and engages in telecommunications and other ancillary businesses.

As an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listed on the NYSE, TM provides U.S. investors indirect exposure to a Japan-domiciled large-cap in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry). Toyotas combined automotive manufacturing and captive finance operations mirror a common industry structure where vehicle sales are supported by in-house lending and leasing arms that generate recurring interest income across dealer and retail channels. The company is widely regarded as a pioneer of mass-market hybrid powertrain technology, a positioning reflected in its stated focus on battery and hybrid electric vehicles alongside conventional models.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Yen volatility drives ADR translated earnings swings
Chinese automakers like BYD pressure global market share
US auto tariffs threaten Japan-built vehicle margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0

Net Income: 4541b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.90 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.60% < 20% (prev 16.07%; Δ -5.47% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 4136b > Net Income 4541b
Net Debt (34099b) to EBITDA (7455b): 4.57 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.17 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.22b) vs 12m ago -6.09% < -2%
Gross Margin: 16.76% > 18% (prev 19.29%; Δ -2.53% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 53.84% > 50% (prev 51.84%; Δ 2.00% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4940b / Interest Expense TTM 371b)

Altman Z'' 2.50

A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 38596b - Total Current Liabilities 33019b) / Total Assets 101958b
B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 37376b / Total Assets 101958b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 4940b / Avg Total Assets 97713b)
D: 0.58 (Book Value of Equity 37063b / Total Liabilities 63981b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.50 = A

Beneish M -2.58

DSRI: 1.28 (Receivables 21208b/15219b, Revenue 52609b/48452b)
GMI: 1.15 (GM 19.29% / 16.76%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.43)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 52609b / 48452b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 4541b - CFO 4136b) / TA 101958b)
Beneish M = -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of TM shares?

As of August 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 189.18 with a total of 229,066 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.21%, over one month by +6.51%, over three months by +0.97% and over the past year by -1.36%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 184.90 (which is 2.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TM a buy, sell or hold?

Toyota Motor has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TM.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 1
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TM price?

Analysts Target Price	231.6	22.4%

Toyota Motor (TM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 226b (226b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap JPY = 36001b (226b USD * 159.09 USD.JPY)
P/E Trailing = 8.6671
P/E Forward = 11.4548
P/S = 0.0044
P/B = 0.9665
P/EG = 1.5387
Revenue TTM = 52609b JPY
EBIT TTM = 4940b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 7455b JPY
Long Term Debt = 26085b JPY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17751b JPY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44374b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 711b
Net Debt = 34099b JPY (calculated: Debt 44374b - CCE 10275b)
Enterprise Value = 70100b JPY (36001b + Debt 44374b - CCE 10275b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.31 (Ebit TTM 4940b / Interest Expense TTM 371b)
EV/FCF = -80.52x (Enterprise Value 70100b / FCF TTM -871b)
FCF Yield = -1.24% (FCF TTM -871b / Enterprise Value 70100b)
FCF Margin = -1.65% (FCF TTM -871b / Revenue TTM 52609b)
Net Margin = 8.63% (Net Income TTM 4541b / Revenue TTM 52609b)
Gross Margin = 16.76% ((Revenue TTM 52609b - Cost of Revenue TTM 43793b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.03% (prev 15.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 70100b / Total Assets 101958b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.84% (Interest Expense 371b / Debt 44374b)
Taxrate = 20.45% (1215b / 5939b)
NOPAT = 3930b (EBIT 4940b * (1 - 20.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.17 (Total Current Assets 38596b / Total Current Liabilities 33019b)
Debt / Equity = 1.20 (Debt 44374b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37063b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.57 (Net Debt 34099b / EBITDA 7455b)
Debt / FCF = -39.17 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 34099b / FCF TTM -871b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 38412b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.65% (Net Income 4541b / Total Assets 101958b)
RoE = 11.82% (Net Income TTM 4541b / Total Stockholder Equity 38412b)
RoCE = 7.66% (EBIT 4940b / Capital Employed (Equity 38412b + L.T.Debt 26085b))
RoIC = 4.68% (NOPAT 3930b / Invested Capital 84058b)
WACC = 3.40% (E(36001b)/V(80375b) * Re(6.76%) + D(44374b)/V(80375b) * Rd(0.84%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.08 | Cagr: -4.20%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -871b)
EPS Correlation: 37.68 | EPS CAGR: 26.55% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.94 | Revenue CAGR: 7.75% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.73 | Chg30d=-34.73% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=3.23 | Chg30d=-30.67% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=16.91 | Chg30d=-3.44% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-10.3% | GrowthRev=+193.9%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=20.50 | Chg30d=-19.01% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+21.3% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)