(TME) Tencent Music Entertainment - Overview
Stock: Music Streaming, Karaoke App, Live Streaming, Digital Albums, Audio Books
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.69% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 31.39% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 4.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.79 |
| Alpha | 21.36 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.730 |
| Beta Downside | 0.825 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.91% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.59 |
Description: TME Tencent Music Entertainment January 29, 2026
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, runs China’s leading online music platforms-QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music-offering streaming, personalized playlists, long-form audio (audiobooks, podcasts), music-oriented video, and the karaoke app WeSing. The ecosystem also includes live-streaming stages (e.g., QQ Music Live, Kugou Live), a short-form audio service called Lazy Audio, and ancillary revenue streams such as artist-related merchandise, digital album sales, content licensing, and advertising across its social-entertainment interfaces.
In the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), TME reported revenue of **$1.12 billion**, up **12 % YoY**, driven largely by a **30 % YoY increase in live-streaming revenue**, which now accounts for roughly **28 % of total sales**. Monthly active users (MAU) reached **≈820 million**, an **8 % rise** from the prior year, while the paid-subscription conversion rate held steady at **12 %**, delivering an average revenue per user (ARPU) of **$5.3**. Advertising revenue grew **6 % YoY**, reflecting broader recovery in China’s digital ad market.
China’s digital entertainment sector is projected to expand at a **CAGR of ~10 % through 2028**, supported by rising disposable incomes, higher smartphone penetration, and a regulatory environment that has stabilized after the 2021 content crackdown. These macro trends underpin TME’s growth outlook, but any re-tightening of content rules or slowdown in ad spend could materially affect results. For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the ValueRay model on the platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 10.81b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 49.07% < 20% (prev 69.17%; Δ -20.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 10.32b > Net Income 10.81b |
| Net Debt (-7.39b) to EBITDA (10.48b): -0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.56b) vs 12m ago -0.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.90% > 18% (prev 0.41%; Δ 4349 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.48% > 50% (prev 32.90%; Δ 0.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 103.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 10.48b / Interest Expense TTM 70.5m) |
Altman Z'' 5.27
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 29.92b - Total Current Liabilities 14.35b) / Total Assets 104.87b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 27.19b / Total Assets 104.87b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 7.26b / Avg Total Assets 94.74b) |
| D: 2.79 (Book Value of Equity 54.33b / Total Liabilities 19.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.27 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.77
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 3.68b/2.94b, Revenue 31.72b/27.84b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 43.90% / 41.00%) |
| AQI: 1.21 (AQ_t 0.70 / AQ_t-1 0.58) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 31.72b / 27.84b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 10.81b - CFO 10.32b) / TA 104.87b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TME shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.22%, over one month by -13.80%, over three months by -29.04% and over the past year by +35.57%.
Is TME a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 20
- Buy: 10
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TME price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 26.8 | 68.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 26.8 | 68.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.6 | 4.3% |
TME Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.299
P/E Forward = 17.2712
P/S = 0.891
P/B = 2.2236
P/EG = 0.699
Revenue TTM = 31.72b CNY
EBIT TTM = 7.26b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 10.48b CNY
Long Term Debt = 3.53b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 104.0m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.87b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -7.39b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 177.73b CNY (196.18b + Debt 3.87b - CCE 22.32b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 103.0 (Ebit TTM 7.26b / Interest Expense TTM 70.5m)
EV/FCF = 17.22x (Enterprise Value 177.73b / FCF TTM 10.32b)
FCF Yield = 5.81% (FCF TTM 10.32b / Enterprise Value 177.73b)
FCF Margin = 32.54% (FCF TTM 10.32b / Revenue TTM 31.72b)
Net Margin = 34.08% (Net Income TTM 10.81b / Revenue TTM 31.72b)
Gross Margin = 43.90% ((Revenue TTM 31.72b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.51% (prev 44.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.69 (Enterprise Value 177.73b / Total Assets 104.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.12% (Interest Expense 4.47m / Debt 3.87b)
Taxrate = 17.74% (477.0m / 2.69b)
NOPAT = 5.97b (EBIT 7.26b * (1 - 17.74%))
Current Ratio = 2.08 (Total Current Assets 29.92b / Total Current Liabilities 14.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 3.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 82.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -7.39b / EBITDA 10.48b)
Debt / FCF = -0.72 (Net Debt -7.39b / FCF TTM 10.32b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 76.93b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.41% (Net Income 10.81b / Total Assets 104.87b)
RoE = 14.05% (Net Income TTM 10.81b / Total Stockholder Equity 76.93b)
RoCE = 9.02% (EBIT 7.26b / Capital Employed (Equity 76.93b + L.T.Debt 3.53b))
RoIC = 7.27% (NOPAT 5.97b / Invested Capital 82.10b)
WACC = 8.45% (E(196.18b)/V(200.05b) * Re(8.61%) + D(3.87b)/V(200.05b) * Rd(0.12%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.30% ; FCFF base≈10.03b ; Y1≈11.94b ; Y5≈18.70b
Fair Price DCF = 422.3 (EV 291.81b - Net Debt -7.39b = Equity 299.20b / Shares 708.4m; r=8.45% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 20.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 13.90 | EPS CAGR: -39.89% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 36.20 | Revenue CAGR: 2.88% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.95 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+12.4% | Growth Revenue=+12.2%