(TME) Tencent Music Entertainment - Ratings and Ratios
Streaming, Karaoke, Live, Audio, Merchandise
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 67.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.15 |
| Alpha | 58.07 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.603 |
| Beta | 0.672 |
| Beta Downside | 0.820 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.37% |
| Mean DD | 13.41% |
| Median DD | 12.30% |
Description: TME Tencent Music Entertainment September 29, 2025
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) runs a suite of online music platforms in China-including QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and the karaoke app WeSing-delivering streaming, personalized discovery, long-form audio (audiobooks, podcasts, talk shows), music-oriented video, and live-streaming experiences through dedicated “Live” tabs and the Lazy Audio platform.
The company monetizes its ecosystem via multiple channels: premium subscriptions, advertising, digital album sales, content licensing, artist-related merchandise, and live-performance ticketing. It also offers artist management services and leverages its social features to drive higher engagement and higher-margin commerce.
From a recent earnings release (FY2023), TME reported revenue of roughly RMB 17.2 billion, with monthly active users (MAU) surpassing 800 million and a subscription conversion rate hovering around 12%. Live-streaming revenue grew about 30% year-over-year, reflecting strong consumer appetite for interactive entertainment post-pandemic.
Key sector drivers include China’s expanding digital-entertainment spend, projected to rise at a ~10% CAGR through 2028, and the gradual easing of regulatory scrutiny after the 2021 crackdown on online content, which should support stable growth for licensed music platforms. Competitive pressure remains high from NetEase Cloud Music and emerging short-video players, making user-engagement metrics and exclusive artist deals critical differentiators.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of TME’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s platform useful for extending your research.
TME Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 29,980m |
| Sub-Industry | Movies & Entertainment |
| IPO / Inception | 2018-12-12 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 47.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.56 of 5 |
TME Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.10% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 3.2% |
TME Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 47.12% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.23 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.51 |
| Current Volume | 4528.8k |
| Average Volume | 4623.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (10.24b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.82b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.62pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 47.51% (prev 64.30%; Δ -16.79pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 8.80b <= Net Income 10.24b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-4.96b) to EBITDA (9.82b) ratio: -0.50 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.87 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.55b) change vs 12m ago -1.14% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 43.72% (prev 39.30%; Δ 4.42pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 31.82% (prev 33.24%; Δ -1.42pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 55.84 (EBITDA TTM 9.82b / Interest Expense TTM 163.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.00
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 30.88b - Total Current Liabilities 16.50b) / Total Assets 107.87b |
| (B) 0.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 25.04b / Total Assets 107.87b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 9.10b / Avg Total Assets 95.14b |
| (D) 2.60 = Book Value of Equity 55.90b / Total Liabilities 21.50b |
| Total Rating: 5.00 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.71
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.47% = 2.23 |
| 3. FCF Margin 29.08% = 7.27 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.07 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.50 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.42)% = 1.77 |
| 7. RoE 14.20% = 1.18 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 37.94% = 2.85 |
| 9. EPS Trend 18.18% = 0.91 |
What is the price of TME shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.47%, over one month by -17.63%, over three months by -25.94% and over the past year by +67.98%.
Is TME a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 20
- Buy: 10
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TME price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 27.5 | 46.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 27.5 | 46.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 21.5 | 15% |
TME Fundamental Data Overview November 15, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.0612
P/E Forward = 18.8679
P/S = 0.9452
P/B = 2.4865
P/EG = 0.759
Beta = 0.446
Revenue TTM = 30.27b CNY
EBIT TTM = 9.10b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 9.82b CNY
Long Term Debt = 3.56b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.25b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.04b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -4.96b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 197.04b CNY (213.20b + Debt 6.04b - CCE 22.20b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 55.84 (Ebit TTM 9.10b / Interest Expense TTM 163.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.47% (FCF TTM 8.80b / Enterprise Value 197.04b)
FCF Margin = 29.08% (FCF TTM 8.80b / Revenue TTM 30.27b)
Net Margin = 33.83% (Net Income TTM 10.24b / Revenue TTM 30.27b)
Gross Margin = 43.72% ((Revenue TTM 30.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.41% (prev 44.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.83 (Enterprise Value 197.04b / Total Assets 107.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.20% (Interest Expense 12.0m / Debt 6.04b)
Taxrate = 17.27% (515.0m / 2.98b)
NOPAT = 7.53b (EBIT 9.10b * (1 - 17.27%))
Current Ratio = 1.87 (Total Current Assets 30.88b / Total Current Liabilities 16.50b)
Debt / Equity = 0.07 (Debt 6.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 83.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.50 (Net Debt -4.96b / EBITDA 9.82b)
Debt / FCF = -0.56 (Net Debt -4.96b / FCF TTM 8.80b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 72.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.49% (Net Income 10.24b / Total Assets 107.87b)
RoE = 14.20% (Net Income TTM 10.24b / Total Stockholder Equity 72.12b)
RoCE = 12.03% (EBIT 9.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 72.12b + L.T.Debt 3.56b))
RoIC = 9.68% (NOPAT 7.53b / Invested Capital 77.80b)
WACC = 8.26% (E(213.20b)/V(219.24b) * Re(8.49%) + D(6.04b)/V(219.24b) * Rd(0.20%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.48% ; FCFE base≈8.83b ; Y1≈10.51b ; Y5≈16.50b
Fair Price DCF = 365.7 (DCF Value 259.10b / Shares Outstanding 708.4m; 5y FCF grow 20.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 18.18 | EPS CAGR: 21.08% | SUE: 1.87 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 37.94 | Revenue CAGR: 5.09% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TME Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle