TME Stock Analysis: Tencent Music Entertainment | NYSE

Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.768m USD | 12M Return: -65.6% | US88034P1093 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Music Streaming, Karaoke, Live Streaming, Audio Content
Total Rating 36
Safety 91
Buy Signal -0.15
Internet Content & Information
Industry Rotation: +0.7
Market Cap: 14.8B
Avg Turnover: 93.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility48.8%
VaR 5th Pctl7.12%
VaR vs Median-9.36%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Rel. Str. IBD1.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group1.6
Character TTM
Beta1.193
Beta Downside1.154
Hurst Exponent0.463
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD68.21%
CAGR/Max DD0.15
CAGR/Mean DD0.49
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TME over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.66, "2021-09": 0.61, "2021-12": 0.5, "2022-03": 0.54, "2022-06": 0.63, "2022-09": 0.86, "2022-12": 0.91, "2023-03": 0.89, "2023-06": 0.97, "2023-09": 0.89, "2023-12": 1, "2024-03": 1.09, "2024-06": 1.19, "2024-09": 1.16, "2024-12": 1.26, "2025-03": 1.37, "2025-06": 1.66, "2025-09": 1.54, "2025-12": 1.6, "2026-03": 1.46, "2026-06": 0.24,
EPS CAGR: 20.20%
EPS Trend: 88.4%
Last SUE: 0.16
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TME over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 8008, 2021-09: 7805, 2021-12: 7607, 2022-03: 6644, 2022-06: 6905, 2022-09: 7365, 2022-12: 7425, 2023-03: 7004, 2023-06: 7286, 2023-09: 6569, 2023-12: 6893, 2024-03: 6768, 2024-06: 7160, 2024-09: 7015, 2024-12: 7458, 2025-03: 7356, 2025-06: 8442, 2025-09: 8463, 2025-12: 7744.591, 2026-03: 7847.250428, 2026-06: 8933,
Rev. CAGR: 7.51%
Rev. Trend: 92.0%
Last SUE: -0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.6 years of data

Jan +3.4% 24
Feb -1.7% 24
Mar +0.1% 11
Apr -3.3% 9
May +8.9% 28
Jun +8.8% 25
Jul -3.3% 10
Aug -1.1% 0
Sep -7.2% 38
Oct +0.2% 0
Nov +5.2% 17
Dec +4.8% 10

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TME Tencent Music Entertainment

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE: TME) is a China-based online music entertainment company headquartered in Shenzhen and operating as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited. The company runs three flagship music streaming platforms-QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music-through which users can discover, stream, and share music, as well as access long-form audio content such as audiobooks, podcasts, and talk shows, alongside music-oriented video content.

Beyond streaming, TME operates a portfolio of social entertainment services, including WeSing (an online karaoke platform), dedicated live streaming services on apps such as Kugou Live and Kuwo Live, and Lazy Audio. Revenue diversification comes from artist-related merchandise, digital album sales, content licensing, live performances, artist management, music subscriptions, and advertising across its social entertainment platforms.

As a major player in the Chinese digital entertainment sector, TME benefits from Chinas large internet user base and the typical freemium model used across the industry, where basic access is free and premium features-such as ad-free streaming, higher audio quality, and offline downloads-are offered via paid subscriptions. The GICS classification places the company in the Communication Services sector under the Movies & Entertainment sub-industry.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Music subscription revenue accelerates as paying users expand
  • China regulators tighten live streaming rules and content oversight
  • Social entertainment revenue declines under ByteDance competition pressure
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 8.60b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.46 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 51.36% < 20% (prev 47.51%; Δ 3.85% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 11.2b > Net Income 8.60b
Net Debt (-13.5b) to EBITDA (14.8b): -0.91 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.58b) vs 12m ago 1.56% < -2%
Gross Margin: 56.76% > 18% (prev 43.72%; Δ 13.04% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 29.35% > 50% (prev 28.06%; Δ 1.28% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 93.58 > 6 (EBIT TTM 13.0b / Interest Expense TTM 139.2m)
Altman Z'' 4.89
A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 39.7b - Total Current Liabilities 22.7b) / Total Assets 117b
B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 31.1b / Total Assets 117b)
C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 13.0b / Avg Total Assets 112b)
D: 2.18 (Book Value of Equity 78.3b / Total Liabilities 35.9b)
Altman-Z'' = 4.89 = AA
Beneish M -3.20
DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 4.18b/3.73b, Revenue 33.0b/30.3b)
GMI: 0.77 (GM 43.72% / 56.76%)
AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.70)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 33.0b / 30.3b)
TATA: -0.02 (NI 8.60b - CFO 11.2b) / TA 117b)
Beneish M = -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of TME shares?

As of August 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.80 with a total of 18,916,493 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.44%, over one month by -5.68%, over three months by -4.24% and over the past year by -65.55%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.40 (which is 4.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is TME a buy, sell or hold?

Tencent Music Entertainment has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.56. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TME.

  • StrongBuy: 20
  • Buy: 10
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TME price?
Analysts Target Price 13.2 50%
Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 14.8b (14.8b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap CNY = 99.2b (14.8b USD * 6.7204 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 10.3678
P/E Forward = 9.4429
P/S = 0.4352
P/B = 1.2399
P/EG = 1.3395
Revenue TTM = 33.0b CNY
EBIT TTM = 13.0b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 14.8b CNY
Long Term Debt = 3.50b CNY (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.13b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.2b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 299.0m
Net Debt = -13.5b CNY (calculated: Debt 17.2b - CCE 30.7b)
Enterprise Value = 85.8b CNY (99.2b + Debt 17.2b - CCE 30.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 93.58 (Ebit TTM 13.0b / Interest Expense TTM 139.2m)
EV/FCF = 8.51x (Enterprise Value 85.8b / FCF TTM 10.1b)
FCF Yield = 11.75% (FCF TTM 10.1b / Enterprise Value 85.8b)
FCF Margin = 30.56% (FCF TTM 10.1b / Revenue TTM 33.0b)
Net Margin = 26.08% (Net Income TTM 8.60b / Revenue TTM 33.0b)
Gross Margin = 56.76% ((Revenue TTM 33.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.21% (prev 44.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 85.8b / Total Assets 117b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.81% (Interest Expense 139.2m / Debt 17.2b)
Taxrate = 17.49% (1.88b / 10.7b)
NOPAT = 10.7b (EBIT 13.0b * (1 - 17.49%))
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 39.7b / Total Current Liabilities 22.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 17.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 78.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.91 (Net Debt -13.5b / EBITDA 14.8b)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (Net Debt -13.5b / FCF TTM 10.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 78.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.65% (Net Income 8.60b / Total Assets 117b)
RoE = 10.91% (Net Income TTM 8.60b / Total Stockholder Equity 78.9b)
RoCE = 15.82% (EBIT 13.0b / Capital Employed (Equity 78.9b + L.T.Debt 3.50b))
RoIC = 10.89% (NOPAT 10.7b / Invested Capital 98.7b)
WACC = 8.78% (E(99.2b)/V(116b) * Re(10.18%) + D(17.2b)/V(116b) * Rd(0.81%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 10.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.31 | Cagr: 0.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.53% ; FCFF base≈9.57b ; Y1≈10.9b ; Y5≈15.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 294.0 (EV 223b - Net Debt -13.5b = Equity 237b / Shares 804.8m; r=8.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.54% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 88.39 | EPS CAGR: 20.20% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.01 | Revenue CAGR: 7.51% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.64 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.25 | Chg30d=-3.65% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+1.4% | GrowthRev=+7.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.75 | Chg30d=-6.05% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)