(TOL) Toll Brothers - Overview
Sector: Consumer CyclicalIndustry: Residential Construction | Exchange NYSE (USA) | Currency USD | Market Cap: 12.507m | Total Return 21.5% in 12m
Stock: Luxury Homes, Apartments, Student Housing, Townhouses, Condominiums
Total Rating 61
Risk 75
Buy Signal -0.83
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.61 |
| Alpha | 5.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.369 |
| Beta Downside | 1.616 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.68 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: TOL Toll Brothers March 05, 2026
Toll Brothers Inc. operates as a luxury homebuilder in the United States. They construct and sell detached and attached homes, including condominiums through their City Living brand. The company also develops communities with recreational amenities, a common strategy in the luxury housing market to enhance property value and appeal.
Beyond home construction, Toll Brothers Inc. offers interior design options and develops apartments and student housing. Vertical integration is a key aspect of their business model; they own and operate various related services, such as mortgage, title, architectural, and engineering operations. This allows for greater control over the development process and supply chain, a common practice among larger homebuilders to manage costs and quality.
Their target demographic includes a broad spectrum of luxury buyers, from first-time homeowners to active adults and those seeking second homes. Further research into their financial performance and market position can provide a deeper understanding of their competitive landscape.
Headlines to watch out for
- Mortgage rate fluctuations impact luxury home demand
- Land and labor costs compress construction margins
- Economic slowdown curbs high-end housing purchases
- Regulatory changes affect land development approvals
- Supply chain disruptions delay home completion timelines
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 1.38b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 81.00% < 20% (prev 83.25%; Δ -2.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.54b > Net Income 1.38b |
| Net Debt (1.65b) to EBITDA (1.89b): 0.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (96.5m) vs 12m ago -5.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.32% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2.50k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 80.23% > 50% (prev 78.97%; Δ 1.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -59.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM -30.7m) |
Altman Z'' 8.53
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 12.41b - Total Current Liabilities 3.29b) / Total Assets 14.43b |
| B: 0.61 (Retained Earnings 8.76b / Total Assets 14.43b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.81b / Avg Total Assets 14.03b) |
| D: 1.46 (Book Value of Equity 8.78b / Total Liabilities 6.01b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 8.53 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.74
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 157.9m/141.7m, Revenue 11.25b/10.76b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 25.32% / 27.35%) |
| AQI: 1.23 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 11.25b / 10.76b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.38b - CFO 1.54b) / TA 14.43b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TOL shares?
As of March 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 131.12 with a total of 1,606,913 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.67%, over one month by -16.61%, over three months by -4.77% and over the past year by +21.54%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.67%, over one month by -16.61%, over three months by -4.77% and over the past year by +21.54%.
Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?
Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 172.8 | 31.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 172.8 | 31.7% |
TOL Fundamental Data Overview March 24, 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.476
P/E Forward = 10.4712
P/S = 1.1114
P/B = 1.4866
P/EG = 0.9516
Revenue TTM = 11.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 132.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.65b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.16b USD (12.51b + Debt 2.85b - CCE 1.20b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -59.09 (Ebit TTM 1.81b / Interest Expense TTM -30.7m)
EV/FCF = 9.75x (Enterprise Value 14.16b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
FCF Yield = 10.26% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Enterprise Value 14.16b)
FCF Margin = 12.91% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Net Margin = 12.26% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Gross Margin = 25.32% ((Revenue TTM 11.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.84% (prev 25.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 14.16b / Total Assets 14.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.71% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 2.85b)
Taxrate = 22.90% (62.6m / 273.6m)
NOPAT = 1.40b (EBIT 1.81b * (1 - 22.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.77 (Total Current Assets 12.41b / Total Current Liabilities 3.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 2.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.87 (Net Debt 1.65b / EBITDA 1.89b)
Debt / FCF = 1.14 (Net Debt 1.65b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.84% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.43b)
RoE = 16.86% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.18b)
RoCE = 16.63% (EBIT 1.81b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.18b + L.T.Debt 2.72b))
RoIC = 12.71% (NOPAT 1.40b / Invested Capital 10.99b)
WACC = 9.04% (E(12.51b)/V(15.36b) * Re(10.80%) + D(2.85b)/V(15.36b) * Rd(1.71%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.96% ; FCFF base≈1.20b ; Y1≈1.30b ; Y5≈1.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 229.7 (EV 23.41b - Net Debt 1.65b = Equity 21.76b / Shares 94.7m; r=9.04% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.14% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 25.40 | EPS CAGR: 4.60% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.60 | Revenue CAGR: -1.58% | SUE: 2.48 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=2.60 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.305 | Revisions Net=-9 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.80 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-5.1% | Growth Revenue=-2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.33 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.288 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+11.9% | Growth Revenue=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.82 (1 Up / 10 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 0.2% (Discount Rate 10.8% - Earnings Yield 10.6%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = -11.6% (Analyst -11.3% - Implied 0.2%)
P/E Forward = 10.4712
P/S = 1.1114
P/B = 1.4866
P/EG = 0.9516
Revenue TTM = 11.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 132.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.65b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.16b USD (12.51b + Debt 2.85b - CCE 1.20b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -59.09 (Ebit TTM 1.81b / Interest Expense TTM -30.7m)
EV/FCF = 9.75x (Enterprise Value 14.16b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
FCF Yield = 10.26% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Enterprise Value 14.16b)
FCF Margin = 12.91% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Net Margin = 12.26% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Gross Margin = 25.32% ((Revenue TTM 11.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.84% (prev 25.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 14.16b / Total Assets 14.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.71% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 2.85b)
Taxrate = 22.90% (62.6m / 273.6m)
NOPAT = 1.40b (EBIT 1.81b * (1 - 22.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.77 (Total Current Assets 12.41b / Total Current Liabilities 3.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 2.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.87 (Net Debt 1.65b / EBITDA 1.89b)
Debt / FCF = 1.14 (Net Debt 1.65b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.84% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.43b)
RoE = 16.86% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.18b)
RoCE = 16.63% (EBIT 1.81b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.18b + L.T.Debt 2.72b))
RoIC = 12.71% (NOPAT 1.40b / Invested Capital 10.99b)
WACC = 9.04% (E(12.51b)/V(15.36b) * Re(10.80%) + D(2.85b)/V(15.36b) * Rd(1.71%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.96% ; FCFF base≈1.20b ; Y1≈1.30b ; Y5≈1.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 229.7 (EV 23.41b - Net Debt 1.65b = Equity 21.76b / Shares 94.7m; r=9.04% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.14% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 25.40 | EPS CAGR: 4.60% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.60 | Revenue CAGR: -1.58% | SUE: 2.48 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=2.60 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.305 | Revisions Net=-9 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.80 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-5.1% | Growth Revenue=-2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.33 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.288 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+11.9% | Growth Revenue=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.82 (1 Up / 10 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 0.2% (Discount Rate 10.8% - Earnings Yield 10.6%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = -11.6% (Analyst -11.3% - Implied 0.2%)