(TOL) Toll Brothers - Overview
Stock: Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.83% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 16.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.818 |
| Beta Downside | 0.598 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.90 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: TOL Toll Brothers January 03, 2026
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is a U.S. homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells luxury detached and attached homes, as well as condominiums under the “City Living” brand. The firm also develops single-story and first-floor primary-suite models, and offers full-service interior fit-outs, smart-home technology, and a suite of ancillary services-including mortgage, title, insurance, and component manufacturing-to serve first-time, move-up, empty-nest, active-adult and second-home buyers.
In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of roughly $9.3 billion and net income of $0.9 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) of about $620 k per home and a backlog of $8.5 billion, indicating strong demand despite a tightening mortgage-rate environment. Key economic drivers for Toll Brothers include the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates (which directly impacts mortgage affordability), housing-starts data, and demographic trends such as the aging-boom-time-baby-boom cohort seeking downsized luxury homes. Sector-wide, labor shortages and lumber-price volatility remain material cost risks that can compress margins if not managed.
For a deeper quantitative view of Toll Brothers’ valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay analysis provides a concise, data-driven supplement worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 1.35b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 89.69% < 20% (prev 83.52%; Δ 6.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.11b > Net Income 1.35b |
| Net Debt (1.66b) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (97.5m) vs 12m ago -5.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.70% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2542 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.65% > 50% (prev 81.14%; Δ -2.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -53.40 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m) |
Altman Z'' 8.66
| A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 12.94b - Total Current Liabilities 3.11b) / Total Assets 14.52b |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 8.57b / Total Assets 14.52b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 13.94b) |
| D: 1.38 (Book Value of Equity 8.60b / Total Liabilities 6.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 8.66 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.96
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 157.9m/150.7m, Revenue 10.97b/10.85b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 25.70% / 27.86%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 10.97b / 10.85b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 1.35b - CFO 1.11b) / TA 14.52b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TOL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.30%, over one month by +9.88%, over three months by +19.25% and over the past year by +30.26%.
Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 155.6 | -3.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 155.6 | -3.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 214.9 | 33.1% |
TOL Fundamental Data Overview February 11, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.4811
P/S = 1.3971
P/B = 1.7443
P/EG = 1.2369
Revenue TTM = 10.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.79b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 128.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.66b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 16.98b USD (15.32b + Debt 2.92b - CCE 1.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -53.40 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m)
EV/FCF = 16.54x (Enterprise Value 16.98b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
FCF Yield = 6.04% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Enterprise Value 16.98b)
FCF Margin = 9.36% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Net Margin = 12.28% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Gross Margin = 25.70% ((Revenue TTM 10.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.96% (prev 25.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 16.98b / Total Assets 14.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.67% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 2.92b)
Taxrate = 24.67% (146.3m / 593.0m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 24.67%))
Current Ratio = 4.17 (Total Current Assets 12.94b / Total Current Liabilities 3.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 2.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 1.66b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.61 (Net Debt 1.66b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.66% (Net Income 1.35b / Total Assets 14.52b)
RoE = 16.77% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.03b)
RoCE = 16.26% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.03b + L.T.Debt 2.79b))
RoIC = 12.21% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.85b)
WACC = 7.70% (E(15.32b)/V(18.24b) * Re(8.93%) + D(2.92b)/V(18.24b) * Rd(1.67%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.52% ; FCFF base≈990.3m ; Y1≈1.01b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 202.7 (EV 20.86b - Net Debt 1.66b = Equity 19.20b / Shares 94.7m; r=7.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.17% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -12.88 | EPS CAGR: -38.56% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.40 | Revenue CAGR: 18.86% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.84 | Chg30d=-0.024 | Revisions Net=-9 | Growth EPS=-4.8% | Growth Revenue=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.25 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+11.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%