TOL Stock Analysis: Toll Brothers | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 15.342m USD | 12M Return: 34.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 178M
EPS Trend: -2.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 81.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is a U.S.-based luxury homebuilder founded in 1967 and headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania. The company designs, builds, markets, and sells a range of detached and attached homes in high-end residential communities, and extends its urban condominium operations through the Toll Brothers City Living brand. It also develops, operates, and rents apartment and student housing properties, and offers communities with amenities such as golf courses, marinas, and fitness centers.
The company serves a broad luxury buyer base, including first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home purchasers. It is highly vertically integrated, owning or operating architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home, landscaping, lumber distribution, and component manufacturing businesses, which supports greater control over design quality, build timelines, and margins.
Toll Brothers is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Homebuilding sub-industry. The luxury segment of U.S. homebuilding generally serves higher-income households whose buying decisions are less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations than entry-level buyers, and the companys diversified revenue streams from rentals, mortgage financing, and ancillary services help reduce dependence on single-family home sales.
- Mortgage rate declines boost luxury home affordability and demand
- Cancellation rates trend lower as housing demand stabilizes
- Capital return accelerates with buybacks and dividend increases
| Net Income: 1.29b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 90.81% < 20% (prev 85.56%; Δ 5.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 1.31b > Net Income 1.29b |
| Net Debt (1.96b) to EBITDA (1.79b): 1.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (95.8m) vs 12m ago -4.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.89% > 18% (prev 26.15%; Δ -1.26% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.89% > 50% (prev 75.09%; Δ 1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 13.3b - Total Current Liabilities 3.26b) / Total Assets 14.5b |
| B: 0.62 (Retained Earnings 9.00b / Total Assets 14.5b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 1.71b / Avg Total Assets 14.4b) |
| D: 1.40 (Book Value of Equity 8.48b / Total Liabilities 6.05b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.82 = AAA |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 543.8m/148.8m, Revenue 11.0b/10.7b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 26.15% / 24.89%) |
| AQI: 0.67 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 11.0b / 10.7b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 1.29b - CFO 1.31b) / TA 14.5b) |
| Beneish M = -1.50 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 157.14 with a total of 865,335 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.05%, over one month by +14.35%, over three months by +14.24% and over the past year by +34.44%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 147.20 (which is 6.3% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 164.8 | 4.9% |
P/E Trailing = 12.4726
P/E Forward = 12.987
P/S = 1.389
P/B = 1.7876
P/EG = 1.197
Revenue TTM = 11.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.71b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.78b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 139.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 139.8m
Net Debt = 1.96b USD (calculated: Debt 3.06b - CCE 1.11b)
Enterprise Value = 17.3b USD (15.3b + Debt 3.06b - CCE 1.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.71b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 14.23x (Enterprise Value 17.3b / FCF TTM 1.22b)
FCF Yield = 7.03% (FCF TTM 1.22b / Enterprise Value 17.3b)
FCF Margin = 11.00% (FCF TTM 1.22b / Revenue TTM 11.0b)
Net Margin = 11.66% (Net Income TTM 1.29b / Revenue TTM 11.0b)
Gross Margin = 24.89% ((Revenue TTM 11.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.30b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.90% (prev 22.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.19 (Enterprise Value 17.3b / Total Assets 14.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 3.06b)
Taxrate = 24.97% (428.6m / 1.72b)
NOPAT = 1.29b (EBIT 1.71b * (1 - 24.97%))
Current Ratio = 4.07 (Total Current Assets 13.3b / Total Current Liabilities 3.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 3.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.09 (Net Debt 1.96b / EBITDA 1.79b)
Debt / FCF = 1.61 (Net Debt 1.96b / FCF TTM 1.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.97% (Net Income 1.29b / Total Assets 14.5b)
RoE = 15.49% (Net Income TTM 1.29b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.31b)
RoCE = 15.44% (EBIT 1.71b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.31b + L.T.Debt 2.78b))
RoIC = 11.84% (NOPAT 1.29b / Invested Capital 10.9b)
WACC = 8.47% (E(15.3b)/V(18.4b) * Re(10.16%) + D(3.06b)/V(18.4b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -4.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.59% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.17b ; Y5≈1.72b
[DCF] Fair Price = 250.1 (EV 25.3b - Net Debt 1.96b = Equity 23.4b / Shares 93.5m; r=8.47% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -2.02 | EPS CAGR: -0.13% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.97 | Revenue CAGR: 3.08% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=2.90 | Chg30d=-0.30% | Revisions=-82% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.80 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=-5.1% | GrowthRev=-2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.12 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=-6% | GrowthEPS=+10.3% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -30% (up=14, down=27)