Overview Dividends

(TOL) Toll Brothers - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US8894781033

Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation

TOL EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -47.19%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -29.3%

TOL Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -8.07%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 2.1%

Description: TOL Toll Brothers October 31, 2025

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a full-cycle luxury homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells detached, attached and condominium homes across the United States, while also offering financing, interior finish options, and a suite of ancillary services such as mortgage, title, insurance and smart-home technology. Its product mix targets first-time, move-up, empty-nesters, active-adult and second-home buyers, and it operates community amenities ranging from golf courses to fitness centers, as well as rental-apartment assets.

Key quantitative signals as of FY 2023 include ≈ $6.8 billion in revenue, a net income of $620 million and a backlog of roughly $12 billion, reflecting strong demand for high-margin luxury homes. The company’s average selling price (ASP) has risen to about $560 k, outpacing the national home-price index, but remains sensitive to mortgage-rate movements-each 1 ppt increase in the 30-year rate historically depresses quarterly unit sales by ~5 %. Additionally, the broader homebuilding sector is being driven by a persistent inventory shortage and demographic headwinds that favor upscale, move-up buyers.

For a deeper quantitative dive, ValueRay’s platform provides granular metrics on TOL’s backlog composition, pricing trends, and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts.

TOL Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	13,007m
Sub-Industry	Homebuilding
IPO / Inception	1987-12-30

TOL Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	54.0%
Fundamental	61.5%
Dividend Rating	68.1%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-23.4%
Analyst Rating	4.05 of 5

TOL Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	0.73%
Yield on Cost 5y	2.37%
Annual Growth 5y	19.59%
Payout Consistency	99.4%
Payout Ratio	7.2%

TOL Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	16.4%
Growth Correlation 12m	-4.9%
Growth Correlation 5y	82.6%
CAGR 5y	48.59%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	1.06
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	4.29
Sharpe Ratio 12m	0.23
Alpha	-32.14
Beta	1.402
Volatility	33.88%
Current Volume	621.3k
Average Volume 20d	1158.1k
Stop Loss	130.7 (-3.1%)
Signal	0.37

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 652.6m TTM)

FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 87.09% (prev 83.41%; Δ 3.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 994.9m <= Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (2.22b) to EBITDA (1.87b) ratio: 1.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 4.14 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (100.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.35% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 25.84% (prev 27.93%; Δ -2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 78.37% (prev 78.84%; Δ -0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -44.23 (EBITDA TTM 1.87b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 8.72

(A) 0.66 = (Total Current Assets 12.49b - Total Current Liabilities 3.02b) / Total Assets 14.40b

(B) 0.62 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.98b / Total Assets 14.40b

(D) 1.43 = Book Value of Equity 9.01b / Total Liabilities 6.29b

Total Rating: 8.72 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.47

1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50

2. FCF Yield 6.03% = 3.02

3. FCF Margin 8.44% = 2.11

4. Debt/Equity 0.38 = 2.43

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.19 = 1.49

6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.03)% = 3.78

7. RoE 17.46% = 1.45

8. Rev. Trend 2.12% = 0.16

9. EPS Trend -29.30% = -1.46

What is the price of TOL shares?

As of November 02, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 134.95 with a total of 621,278 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.15%, over one month by -2.12%, over three months by +14.24% and over the past year by -7.06%.

Is Toll Brothers a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Toll Brothers is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 61.47 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of TOL is around 159.63 USD . This means that TOL is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +18.29% (Margin of Safety).

Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?

Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.

Strong Buy: 9
Buy: 3
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	150.7	11.7%
Analysts Target Price	150.7	11.7%
ValueRay Target Price	179.2	32.8%

TOL Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025

Market Cap USD = 13.01b (13.01b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.9521
P/E Forward = 10.0806
P/S = 1.1958
P/B = 1.6614
P/EG = 1.0865
Beta = 1.402
Revenue TTM = 10.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.78b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.94b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 150.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.23b USD (13.01b + Debt 3.07b - CCE 852.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -44.23 (Ebit TTM 1.78b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.03% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Enterprise Value 15.23b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Net Margin = 12.64% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.84% ((Revenue TTM 10.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.99% (prev 25.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 15.23b / Total Assets 14.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 3.07b)
Taxrate = 26.00% (129.9m / 499.5m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.78b * (1 - 26.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.14 (Total Current Assets 12.49b / Total Current Liabilities 3.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 3.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.19 (Net Debt 2.22b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 2.42 (Net Debt 2.22b / FCF TTM 918.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.40b)
RoE = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.88b)
RoCE = 16.44% (EBIT 1.78b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.88b + L.T.Debt 2.94b))
RoIC = 12.30% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.71b)
WACC = 9.27% (E(13.01b)/V(16.08b) * Re(11.18%) + D(3.07b)/V(16.08b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 11.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.83% ; FCFE base≈888.9m ; Y1≈852.1m ; Y5≈830.6m
Fair Price DCF = 95.59 (DCF Value 9.21b / Shares Outstanding 96.4m; 5y FCF grow -5.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -29.30 | EPS CAGR: -47.19% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 2.12 | Revenue CAGR: -8.07% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for TOL Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle