(TOL) Toll Brothers - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US8894781033
Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.71% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.11% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 19.59% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 52.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.24 |
| Alpha | -27.10 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.95 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.429 |
| Beta | 0.860 |
| Beta Downside | 0.541 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.97% |
| Mean DD | 11.91% |
| Median DD | 6.61% |
Description: TOL Toll Brothers October 31, 2025
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a full-cycle luxury homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells detached, attached and condominium homes across the United States, while also offering financing, interior finish options, and a suite of ancillary services such as mortgage, title, insurance and smart-home technology. Its product mix targets first-time, move-up, empty-nesters, active-adult and second-home buyers, and it operates community amenities ranging from golf courses to fitness centers, as well as rental-apartment assets.
Key quantitative signals as of FY 2023 include ≈ $6.8 billion in revenue, a net income of $620 million and a backlog of roughly $12 billion, reflecting strong demand for high-margin luxury homes. The company’s average selling price (ASP) has risen to about $560 k, outpacing the national home-price index, but remains sensitive to mortgage-rate movements-each 1 ppt increase in the 30-year rate historically depresses quarterly unit sales by ~5 %. Additionally, the broader homebuilding sector is being driven by a persistent inventory shortage and demographic headwinds that favor upscale, move-up buyers.
For a deeper quantitative dive, ValueRay’s platform provides granular metrics on TOL’s backlog composition, pricing trends, and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 652.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 87.09% (prev 83.41%; Δ 3.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 994.9m <= Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.22b) to EBITDA (1.87b) ratio: 1.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 4.14 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (100.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.35% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 25.84% (prev 27.93%; Δ -2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 78.37% (prev 78.84%; Δ -0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -44.23 (EBITDA TTM 1.87b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 8.72
| (A) 0.66 = (Total Current Assets 12.49b - Total Current Liabilities 3.02b) / Total Assets 14.40b |
| (B) 0.62 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.98b / Total Assets 14.40b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 1.78b / Avg Total Assets 13.88b |
| (D) 1.43 = Book Value of Equity 9.01b / Total Liabilities 6.29b |
| Total Rating: 8.72 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 65.82
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.12% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.44% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.38 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.19 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.66)% |
| 7. RoE 17.46% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 15.63% |
| 9. EPS Trend -4.36% |
What is the price of TOL shares?
As of December 07, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 138.94 with a total of 1,043,244 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.64%, over one month by +3.96%, over three months by -5.54% and over the past year by -9.09%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.64%, over one month by +3.96%, over three months by -5.54% and over the past year by -9.09%.
Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?
Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 150.7 | 8.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 150.7 | 8.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 179.1 | 28.9% |
TOL Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
Market Cap USD = 12.80b (12.80b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.6128
P/E Forward = 9.5147
P/S = 1.1766
P/B = 1.5671
P/EG = 1.0249
Beta = 1.393
Revenue TTM = 10.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.78b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.94b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 150.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.02b USD (12.80b + Debt 3.07b - CCE 852.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -44.23 (Ebit TTM 1.78b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.12% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Enterprise Value 15.02b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Net Margin = 12.64% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.84% ((Revenue TTM 10.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.99% (prev 25.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 15.02b / Total Assets 14.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 3.07b)
Taxrate = 26.00% (129.9m / 499.5m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.78b * (1 - 26.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.14 (Total Current Assets 12.49b / Total Current Liabilities 3.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 3.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.19 (Net Debt 2.22b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 2.42 (Net Debt 2.22b / FCF TTM 918.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.40b)
RoE = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.88b)
RoCE = 16.44% (EBIT 1.78b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.88b + L.T.Debt 2.94b))
RoIC = 12.30% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.71b)
WACC = 7.63% (E(12.80b)/V(15.87b) * Re(9.18%) + D(3.07b)/V(15.87b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.52% ; FCFE base≈888.9m ; Y1≈852.1m ; Y5≈830.6m
Fair Price DCF = 125.9 (DCF Value 12.14b / Shares Outstanding 96.4m; 5y FCF grow -5.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -4.36 | EPS CAGR: -34.56% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.63 | Revenue CAGR: -0.85% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-01-31): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-10-31): EPS=13.94 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+0.8% | Growth Revenue=-1.2%
P/E Trailing = 9.6128
P/E Forward = 9.5147
P/S = 1.1766
P/B = 1.5671
P/EG = 1.0249
Beta = 1.393
Revenue TTM = 10.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.78b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.94b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 150.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.02b USD (12.80b + Debt 3.07b - CCE 852.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -44.23 (Ebit TTM 1.78b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.12% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Enterprise Value 15.02b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Net Margin = 12.64% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.84% ((Revenue TTM 10.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.99% (prev 25.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 15.02b / Total Assets 14.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 3.07b)
Taxrate = 26.00% (129.9m / 499.5m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.78b * (1 - 26.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.14 (Total Current Assets 12.49b / Total Current Liabilities 3.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 3.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.19 (Net Debt 2.22b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 2.42 (Net Debt 2.22b / FCF TTM 918.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.40b)
RoE = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.88b)
RoCE = 16.44% (EBIT 1.78b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.88b + L.T.Debt 2.94b))
RoIC = 12.30% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.71b)
WACC = 7.63% (E(12.80b)/V(15.87b) * Re(9.18%) + D(3.07b)/V(15.87b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.52% ; FCFE base≈888.9m ; Y1≈852.1m ; Y5≈830.6m
Fair Price DCF = 125.9 (DCF Value 12.14b / Shares Outstanding 96.4m; 5y FCF grow -5.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -4.36 | EPS CAGR: -34.56% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.63 | Revenue CAGR: -0.85% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-01-31): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-10-31): EPS=13.94 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+0.8% | Growth Revenue=-1.2%
Additional Sources for TOL Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle