(TOL) Toll Brothers - Ratings and Ratios
Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Courses, Recreational Amenities
TOL EPS (Earnings per Share)
TOL Revenue
Description: TOL Toll Brothers
Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) is a leading luxury homebuilder in the United States, operating in various segments including detached and attached homes, condominiums, and apartments. The companys diverse product offerings cater to different customer segments, including luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers.
The companys business model is vertically integrated, with ownership and operation of various subsidiaries providing architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, and manufacturing services. This integration enables Toll Brothers to control costs, improve efficiency, and enhance profitability. Key performance indicators (KPIs) to monitor include revenue growth, gross margin, and return on equity (ROE), which currently stands at 17.91%. Other relevant KPIs include the companys land holdings, backlog, and average sales price per home.
Toll Brothers focus on luxury homebuilding and its diverse geographic presence across the United States provide a degree of insulation from regional market fluctuations. The companys emphasis on providing high-end amenities and features, such as golf courses, marinas, and fitness centers, also contributes to its premium pricing power. To further assess the companys prospects, its essential to track metrics such as the absorption rate, cancellation rate, and the percentage of homes sold at or above the list price.
From a valuation perspective, Toll Brothers current P/E ratio of 8.46 and forward P/E of 8.25 suggest a relatively attractive valuation compared to its historical averages. However, its crucial to consider the companys growth prospects, profitability, and return on capital in the context of the overall homebuilding industry and macroeconomic trends, including interest rates, housing demand, and supply chain dynamics.
TOL Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 13,619m |
| Sub-Industry | Homebuilding |
| IPO / Inception | 1987-12-30 |
TOL Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 39.2% |
| Fundamental | 62.3% |
| Dividend Rating | 63.1% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -20.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.05 of 5 |
TOL Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 0.72% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.27% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 15.39% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.1% |
TOL Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 95.4% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -49.9% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 82% |
| CAGR 5y | 50.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y | 1.10 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y | 9.40 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.45 |
| Alpha | 0.00 |
| Beta | 0.971 |
| Volatility | 31.85% |
| Current Volume | 2094.1k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1524k |
| Stop Loss | 135.3 (-3.5%) |
| Signal | -0.21 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 652.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 87.09% (prev 83.41%; Δ 3.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 994.9m <= Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.22b) to EBITDA (1.87b) ratio: 1.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 4.14 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (100.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.35% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 25.84% (prev 27.93%; Δ -2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 78.37% (prev 78.84%; Δ -0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| error: Interest Coverage Ratio cannot be calculated (needs EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
Altman Z'' 8.72
| (A) 0.66 = (Total Current Assets 12.49b - Total Current Liabilities 3.02b) / Total Assets 14.40b |
| (B) 0.62 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.98b / Total Assets 14.40b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 1.78b / Avg Total Assets 13.88b |
| (D) 1.43 = Book Value of Equity 9.01b / Total Liabilities 6.29b |
| Total Rating: 8.72 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.31
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.90% = 2.45 |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.44% = 2.11 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.74 = 2.24 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.20 = -2.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.66)% = 7.07 |
| 7. RoE 17.46% = 1.45 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 2.12% = 0.16 |
| 9. EPS Trend 6.73% = 0.34 |
What is the price of TOL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.12%, over one month by +6.85%, over three months by +33.95% and over the past year by -6.21%.
Is Toll Brothers a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of TOL is around 170.99 USD . This means that TOL is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +22% (Margin of Safety).
Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 149.9 | 7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 149.9 | 7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 187.9 | 34% |
Last update: 2025-09-17 04:40
TOL Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 852.3m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 10.428
P/E Forward = 10.3199
P/S = 1.2521
P/B = 1.6823
P/EG = 1.1033
Beta = 1.332
Revenue TTM = 10.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.78b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.94b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.02b USD (from totalCurrentLiabilities, last quarter)
Debt = 5.96b USD (Calculated: Short Term 3.02b + Long Term 2.94b)
Net Debt = 2.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 18.73b USD (13.62b + Debt 5.96b - CCE 852.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.78b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
FCF Yield = 4.90% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Enterprise Value 18.73b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Net Margin = 12.64% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.84% ((Revenue TTM 10.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.08 (Enterprise Value 18.73b / Book Value Of Equity 9.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.82% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 5.96b)
Taxrate = 24.67% (514.4m / 2.09b)
NOPAT = 1.34b (EBIT 1.78b * (1 - 24.67%))
Current Ratio = 4.14 (Total Current Assets 12.49b / Total Current Liabilities 3.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 5.96b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 8.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.20 (Net Debt 2.22b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 6.49 (Debt 5.96b / FCF TTM 918.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.88b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 1.38b, Total Assets 14.40b )
RoE = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.88b)
RoCE = 16.44% (Ebit 1.78b / (Equity 7.88b + L.T.Debt 2.94b))
RoIC = 12.52% (NOPAT 1.34b / Invested Capital 10.71b)
WACC = 6.86% (E(13.62b)/V(19.58b) * Re(9.59%)) + (D(5.96b)/V(19.58b) * Rd(0.82%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.00 | Cagr: -1.12%
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.08% ; FCFE base≈888.9m ; Y1≈852.1m ; Y5≈830.6m
Fair Price DCF = 118.2 (DCF Value 11.39b / Shares Outstanding 96.4m; 5y FCF grow -5.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 6.73 | EPS CAGR: -8.06% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 2.12 | Revenue CAGR: -8.07% | SUE: N/A | # QB: None
Additional Sources for TOL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle