Overview Dividends

(TOL) Toll Brothers - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US8894781033

Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-10": 1.55, "2021-01": 0.76, "2021-04": 1.01, "2021-07": 1.87, "2021-10": 3.02, "2022-01": 1.24, "2022-04": 1.85, "2022-07": 2.35, "2022-10": 4.7, "2023-01": 1.7, "2023-04": 2.85, "2023-07": 3.73, "2023-10": 4.11, "2024-01": 2.25, "2024-04": 4.55, "2024-07": 3.6, "2024-10": 4.63, "2025-01": 1.75, "2025-04": 3.5, "2025-07": 3.73, "2025-10": 0,
EPS CAGR: -47.19%
EPS Trend: -29.3%
Last SUE: -4.00σ
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-10: 2545.667, 2021-01: 1563.376, 2021-04: 1930.124, 2021-07: 2255.481, 2021-10: 3041.38, 2022-01: 1791.081, 2022-04: 2277.541, 2022-07: 2494.802, 2022-10: 3712.134, 2023-01: 1780.169, 2023-04: 2506.979, 2023-07: 2687.642, 2023-10: 3020.147, 2024-01: 1947.848, 2024-04: 2837.486, 2024-07: 2727.944, 2024-10: 3333.462, 2025-01: 1859.131, 2025-04: 2739.077, 2025-07: 2945.117, 2025-10: null,
Revenue CAGR: -8.07%
Revenue Trend: 2.1%
Last SUE: 0.64σ
Qual. Beats: 0
Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility 34.4%
Value at Risk 5%th 53.0%
Relative Tail Risk -6.34%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -0.31
Alpha -24.25
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.291
Beta 0.857
Beta Downside 0.543
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 45.97%
Mean DD 11.72%
Median DD 6.15%

Description: TOL Toll Brothers October 31, 2025

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a full-cycle luxury homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells detached, attached and condominium homes across the United States, while also offering financing, interior finish options, and a suite of ancillary services such as mortgage, title, insurance and smart-home technology. Its product mix targets first-time, move-up, empty-nesters, active-adult and second-home buyers, and it operates community amenities ranging from golf courses to fitness centers, as well as rental-apartment assets.

Key quantitative signals as of FY 2023 include ≈ $6.8 billion in revenue, a net income of $620 million and a backlog of roughly $12 billion, reflecting strong demand for high-margin luxury homes. The company’s average selling price (ASP) has risen to about $560 k, outpacing the national home-price index, but remains sensitive to mortgage-rate movements-each 1 ppt increase in the 30-year rate historically depresses quarterly unit sales by ~5 %. Additionally, the broader homebuilding sector is being driven by a persistent inventory shortage and demographic headwinds that favor upscale, move-up buyers.

For a deeper quantitative dive, ValueRay’s platform provides granular metrics on TOL’s backlog composition, pricing trends, and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts.

TOL Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD 12,712m
Sub-Industry Homebuilding
IPO / Inception 1987-12-30
Return 12m vs S&P 500 -22.5%
Analyst Rating 4.05 of 5

TOL Dividends

Metric Value
Dividend Yield 0.74%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.15%
Yield CAGR 5y 19.59%
Payout Consistency 99.4%
Payout Ratio 7.2%

TOL Growth Ratios

Metric Value
CAGR 3y 43.76%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio 0.95
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio 3.73
Current Volume 1550.5k
Average Volume 950.2k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 652.6m TTM)
FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 87.09% (prev 83.41%; Δ 3.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 994.9m <= Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (2.22b) to EBITDA (1.87b) ratio: 1.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 4.14 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (100.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.35% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 25.84% (prev 27.93%; Δ -2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 78.37% (prev 78.84%; Δ -0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio -44.23 (EBITDA TTM 1.87b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 8.72

(A) 0.66 = (Total Current Assets 12.49b - Total Current Liabilities 3.02b) / Total Assets 14.40b
(B) 0.62 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.98b / Total Assets 14.40b
(C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 1.78b / Avg Total Assets 13.88b
(D) 1.43 = Book Value of Equity 9.01b / Total Liabilities 6.29b
Total Rating: 8.72 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.60

1. Piotroski 3.50pt
2. FCF Yield 6.15%
3. FCF Margin 8.44%
4. Debt/Equity 0.38
5. Debt/Ebitda 1.19
6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.68)%
7. RoE 17.46%
8. Rev. Trend 2.12%
9. EPS Trend -29.30%

What is the price of TOL shares?

As of November 23, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 131.63 with a total of 1,550,473 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.99%, over one month by -4.56%, over three months by +0.23% and over the past year by -12.86%.

Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?

Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
  • Strong Buy: 9
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 150.7 14.5%
Analysts Target Price 150.7 14.5%
ValueRay Target Price 170.1 29.2%

TOL Fundamental Data Overview November 17, 2025

Market Cap USD = 12.71b (12.71b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.6121
P/E Forward = 9.4162
P/S = 1.1687
P/B = 1.5518
P/EG = 1.0148
Beta = 1.393
Revenue TTM = 10.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.78b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.94b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 150.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.93b USD (12.71b + Debt 3.07b - CCE 852.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -44.23 (Ebit TTM 1.78b / Interest Expense TTM -40.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.15% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Enterprise Value 14.93b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 918.3m / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Net Margin = 12.64% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 10.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.84% ((Revenue TTM 10.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.99% (prev 25.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 14.93b / Total Assets 14.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 3.07b)
Taxrate = 26.00% (129.9m / 499.5m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.78b * (1 - 26.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.14 (Total Current Assets 12.49b / Total Current Liabilities 3.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 3.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.19 (Net Debt 2.22b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 2.42 (Net Debt 2.22b / FCF TTM 918.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.40b)
RoE = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.88b)
RoCE = 16.44% (EBIT 1.78b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.88b + L.T.Debt 2.94b))
RoIC = 12.30% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.71b)
WACC = 7.61% (E(12.71b)/V(15.78b) * Re(9.17%) + D(3.07b)/V(15.78b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.55% ; FCFE base≈888.9m ; Y1≈852.1m ; Y5≈830.6m
Fair Price DCF = 126.1 (DCF Value 12.16b / Shares Outstanding 96.4m; 5y FCF grow -5.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -29.30 | EPS CAGR: -47.19% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 2.12 | Revenue CAGR: -8.07% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for TOL Stock

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