(TOL) Toll Brothers - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Residential Construction | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 12.585m USD | Total Return: 19.6% in 12m

Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Student Housing, Mortgages
Total Rating 53
Safety 70
Buy Signal -0.97
Residential Construction
Industry Rotation: -10.8
Market Cap: 12.6B
Avg Turnover: 122M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility37.2%
VaR 5th Pctl6.17%
VaR vs Median0.70%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.58
Rel. Str. IBD23.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group87.5
Character TTM
Beta1.254
Beta Downside1.463
Hurst Exponent0.564
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD45.97%
CAGR/Max DD0.55
CAGR/Mean DD1.86
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-04": 1.01, "2021-07": 1.87, "2021-10": 3.02, "2022-01": 1.24, "2022-04": 1.85, "2022-07": 2.35, "2022-10": 4.7, "2023-01": 1.7, "2023-04": 2.85, "2023-07": 3.73, "2023-10": 4.11, "2024-01": 2.25, "2024-04": 4.55, "2024-07": 3.6, "2024-10": 4.63, "2025-01": 1.75, "2025-04": 3.5, "2025-07": 3.73, "2025-10": 4.58, "2026-01": 2.19,
EPS CAGR: 4.60%
EPS Trend: 25.4%
Last SUE: 0.25
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-04: 1930.124, 2021-07: 2255.481, 2021-10: 3041.38, 2022-01: 1791.081, 2022-04: 2277.541, 2022-07: 2494.802, 2022-10: 3712.134, 2023-01: 1780.169, 2023-04: 2506.979, 2023-07: 2687.642, 2023-10: 3020.147, 2024-01: 1947.848, 2024-04: 2837.486, 2024-07: 2727.944, 2024-10: 3333.462, 2025-01: 1859.131, 2025-04: 2739.077, 2025-07: 2945.117, 2025-10: 3423.398, 2026-01: 2145.627,
Rev. CAGR: -1.58%
Rev. Trend: 11.6%
Last SUE: 2.48
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: TOL Toll Brothers

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a luxury homebuilder based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, specializing in the design, construction, and financing of high-end residential communities. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, managing internal architectural, engineering, mortgage, and manufacturing divisions to control costs and supply chains. Its portfolio spans detached and attached homes, urban condominiums, and rental apartments tailored to move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers.

The firm differentiates itself through extensive customization options, offering buyers personalized interior fit-outs and smart home technology integrations. Unlike entry-level builders, luxury developers like Toll Brothers often benefit from a target demographic with higher credit scores and larger down payments, which can provide relative stability during periods of interest rate volatility. The company also maintains a significant presence in land development and component manufacturing to streamline its construction cycles.

To gain deeper insights into the companys valuation metrics, consider reviewing the latest data on ValueRay. Founded in 1967, Toll Brothers remains a primary player in the U.S. luxury housing market, leveraging its brand to develop lifestyle-focused communities featuring amenities such as golf courses and private country clubs.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Mortgage rate volatility impacts luxury homebuyer demand and monthly payment affordability
  • High-margin customization options at design centers drive revenue and premium brand positioning
  • Strategic land acquisition and development pipeline sustain long-term luxury inventory growth
  • Supply chain disruptions and skilled labor shortages increase construction costs and cycle times
  • Diversification into rental apartments and student housing provides recurring revenue streams
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 1.38b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 81.00% < 20% (prev 83.25%; Δ -2.25% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.54b > Net Income 1.38b
Net Debt (1.65b) to EBITDA (1.89b): 0.87 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.77 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (96.5m) vs 12m ago -5.23% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.32% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2.50k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 80.23% > 50% (prev 78.97%; Δ 1.25% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 8.53
A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 12.41b - Total Current Liabilities 3.29b) / Total Assets 14.43b
B: 0.61 (Retained Earnings 8.76b / Total Assets 14.43b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.81b / Avg Total Assets 14.03b)
D: 1.46 (Book Value of Equity 8.78b / Total Liabilities 6.01b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 8.53 = AAA
Beneish M -2.74
DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 157.9m/141.7m, Revenue 11.25b/10.76b)
GMI: 1.08 (GM 25.32% / 27.35%)
AQI: 1.23 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.10)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 11.25b / 10.76b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.38b - CFO 1.54b) / TA 14.43b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of TOL shares? As of May 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 126.22 with a total of 1,273,243 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.46%, over one month by -9.93%, over three months by -22.81% and over the past year by +19.57%.
Is TOL a buy, sell or hold? Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?
Analysts Target Price 168.4 33.4%
Toll Brothers (TOL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.65
P/E Forward = 10.9409
P/S = 1.1109
P/B = 1.553
P/EG = 1.0078
Revenue TTM = 11.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 132.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.65b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.24b USD (12.58b + Debt 2.85b - CCE 1.20b)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.81b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = 9.80x (Enterprise Value 14.24b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
FCF Yield = 10.20% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Enterprise Value 14.24b)
FCF Margin = 12.91% (FCF TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Net Margin = 12.26% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 11.25b)
Gross Margin = 25.32% ((Revenue TTM 11.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.84% (prev 25.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 14.24b / Total Assets 14.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 2.85b)
Taxrate = 22.90% (62.6m / 273.6m)
NOPAT = 1.40b (EBIT 1.81b * (1 - 22.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.77 (Total Current Assets 12.41b / Total Current Liabilities 3.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 2.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.87 (Net Debt 1.65b / EBITDA 1.89b)
Debt / FCF = 1.14 (Net Debt 1.65b / FCF TTM 1.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.84% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.43b)
RoE = 16.86% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.18b)
RoCE = 16.63% (EBIT 1.81b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.18b + L.T.Debt 2.72b))
RoIC = 12.71% (NOPAT 1.40b / Invested Capital 10.99b)
WACC = 8.47% (E(12.58b)/V(15.44b) * Re(10.39%) + D(2.85b)/V(15.44b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -5.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.91% ; FCFF base≈1.20b ; Y1≈1.30b ; Y5≈1.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 255.7 (EV 25.87b - Net Debt 1.65b = Equity 24.22b / Shares 94.7m; r=8.47% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.14% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 25.40 | EPS CAGR: 4.60% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.60 | Revenue CAGR: -1.58% | SUE: 2.48 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=3.41 | Chg30d=-0.32% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.76 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=-5.5% | GrowthRev=-2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.17 | Chg30d=-1.08% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -33%