(TOL) Toll Brothers - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US8894781033

Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation

Stock: Homebuilding
Age 38.1y
MCap 14,137m
Avg Vol 947K (136M USD)
Beta 0.839
Volatility 34.05%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-01": 0.76, "2021-04": 1.01, "2021-07": 1.87, "2021-10": 3.02, "2022-01": 1.24, "2022-04": 1.85, "2022-07": 2.35, "2022-10": 4.7, "2023-01": 1.7, "2023-04": 2.85, "2023-07": 3.73, "2023-10": 4.11, "2024-01": 2.25, "2024-04": 4.55, "2024-07": 3.6, "2024-10": 4.63, "2025-01": 1.75, "2025-04": 3.5, "2025-07": 3.73, "2025-10": 4.58,
EPS CAGR: 41.68%
EPS Trend: 54.5%
Last SUE: -1.19
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of TOL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-01: 1563.376, 2021-04: 1930.124, 2021-07: 2255.481, 2021-10: 3041.38, 2022-01: 1791.081, 2022-04: 2277.541, 2022-07: 2494.802, 2022-10: 3712.134, 2023-01: 1780.169, 2023-04: 2506.979, 2023-07: 2687.642, 2023-10: 3020.147, 2024-01: 1947.848, 2024-04: 2837.486, 2024-07: 2727.944, 2024-10: 3333.462, 2025-01: 1859.131, 2025-04: 2739.077, 2025-07: 2945.117, 2025-10: 3423.398,
Rev. CAGR: 18.86%
Rev. Trend: 37.4%
Last SUE: 0.79
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield 1.04%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.08%
Yield CAGR 5y 12.13%
Payout Consistency 99.5%
Payout Ratio 7.4%
Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility 34.1%
Value at Risk 5%th 51.7%
Relative Tail Risk -7.67%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio 0.26
Alpha -5.94
CAGR/Max DD 0.83
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.298
Beta 0.839
Beta Downside 0.507
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 45.97%
Mean DD 12.49%
Median DD 7.75%

Description: TOL Toll Brothers January 03, 2026

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is a U.S. homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells luxury detached and attached homes, as well as condominiums under the “City Living” brand. The firm also develops single-story and first-floor primary-suite models, and offers full-service interior fit-outs, smart-home technology, and a suite of ancillary services-including mortgage, title, insurance, and component manufacturing-to serve first-time, move-up, empty-nest, active-adult and second-home buyers.

In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of roughly $9.3 billion and net income of $0.9 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) of about $620 k per home and a backlog of $8.5 billion, indicating strong demand despite a tightening mortgage-rate environment. Key economic drivers for Toll Brothers include the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates (which directly impacts mortgage affordability), housing-starts data, and demographic trends such as the aging-boom-time-baby-boom cohort seeking downsized luxury homes. Sector-wide, labor shortages and lumber-price volatility remain material cost risks that can compress margins if not managed.

For a deeper quantitative view of Toll Brothers’ valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay analysis provides a concise, data-driven supplement worth reviewing.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (1.35b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 658.0m TTM)
FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 89.69% (prev 83.52%; Δ 6.17pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.11b <= Net Income 1.35b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (1.66b) to EBITDA (1.84b) ratio: 0.90 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 4.17 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (97.5m) change vs 12m ago -5.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 25.70% (prev 27.86%; Δ -2.16pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 78.65% (prev 81.14%; Δ -2.49pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio -53.40 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 8.66

(A) 0.68 = (Total Current Assets 12.94b - Total Current Liabilities 3.11b) / Total Assets 14.52b
(B) 0.59 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.57b / Total Assets 14.52b
(C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 13.94b
(D) 1.38 = Book Value of Equity 8.60b / Total Liabilities 6.23b
Total Rating: 8.66 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.01

1. Piotroski 3.50pt
2. FCF Yield 6.50%
3. FCF Margin 9.36%
4. Debt/Equity 0.35
5. Debt/Ebitda 0.90
6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.53)%
7. RoE 16.77%
8. Rev. Trend 37.40%
9. EPS Trend 54.46%

What is the price of TOL shares?

As of January 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 143.87 with a total of 1,154,511 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.32%, over one month by +3.20%, over three months by +6.20% and over the past year by +7.00%.

Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?

Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
  • Strong Buy: 9
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 154.1 7.1%
Analysts Target Price 154.1 7.1%
ValueRay Target Price 182.6 26.9%

TOL Fundamental Data Overview January 19, 2026

P/E Trailing = 10.8732
P/E Forward = 11.0619
P/S = 1.2891
P/B = 1.6849
P/EG = 1.1916
Revenue TTM = 10.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.79b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 128.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.66b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.79b USD (14.14b + Debt 2.92b - CCE 1.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -53.40 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m)
EV/FCF = 15.39x (Enterprise Value 15.79b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
FCF Yield = 6.50% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Enterprise Value 15.79b)
FCF Margin = 9.36% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Net Margin = 12.28% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Gross Margin = 25.70% ((Revenue TTM 10.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.96% (prev 25.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 15.79b / Total Assets 14.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.67% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 2.92b)
Taxrate = 24.67% (146.3m / 593.0m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 24.67%))
Current Ratio = 4.17 (Total Current Assets 12.94b / Total Current Liabilities 3.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 2.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 1.66b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.61 (Net Debt 1.66b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.66% (Net Income 1.35b / Total Assets 14.52b)
RoE = 16.77% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.03b)
RoCE = 16.26% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.03b + L.T.Debt 2.79b))
RoIC = 12.21% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.85b)
WACC = 7.69% (E(14.14b)/V(17.05b) * Re(9.01%) + D(2.92b)/V(17.05b) * Rd(1.67%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.59% ; FCFF base≈990.3m ; Y1≈1.01b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 203.0 (EV 20.94b - Net Debt 1.66b = Equity 19.28b / Shares 95.0m; r=7.69% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.17% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 54.46 | EPS CAGR: 41.68% | SUE: -1.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.40 | Revenue CAGR: 18.86% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=-0.259 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.86 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=-9 | Growth EPS=-4.7% | Growth Revenue=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.25 | Chg30d=-0.998 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+10.8% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%

Additional Sources for TOL Stock

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