TOL Stock Analysis: Toll Brothers | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.588m USD | 12M Return: 4.4% | US8894781033 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 154M
EPS Trend: -22.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 83.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is a US-based luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, markets, and sells detached and attached homes in residential communities nationwide, operating within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Homebuilding sub-industry. The company extends its brand into urban condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living and also develops, operates, and rents apartments and student housing properties. Its home designs include single-story layouts and first-floor primary bedroom suites, with many communities featuring amenities such as golf courses, marinas, pools, country clubs, and fitness centers.
The business is highly vertically integrated, with in-house capabilities spanning architectural design, engineering, mortgage origination, title services, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, and component manufacturing, allowing the company to control most stages of the build process. Toll Brothers serves a range of luxury buyer segments, including first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home purchasers, and offers interior fit-out options covering flooring, cabinetry, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, the company has been publicly traded since 1987.
- Mortgage rate buy-downs erode luxury homebuilder gross margins
- Net order growth signals resilience in luxury housing demand
- Rising land acquisition costs pressure homebuilder operating margins
| Net Income: 1.20b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 94.67% < 20% (prev 87.09%; Δ 7.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.19b > Net Income 1.20b |
| Net Debt (2.00b) to EBITDA (1.67b): 1.20 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (95.6m) vs 12m ago -4.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.25% > 18% (prev 25.84%; Δ -1.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.99% > 50% (prev 75.55%; Δ -1.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 13.7b - Total Current Liabilities 3.51b) / Total Assets 14.7b |
| B: 0.63 (Retained Earnings 9.25b / Total Assets 14.7b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.59b / Avg Total Assets 14.5b) |
| D: 1.39 (Book Value of Equity 8.53b / Total Liabilities 6.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.80 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 151.7m/153.7m, Revenue 10.8b/10.9b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 25.84% / 24.25%) |
| AQI: 0.42 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 10.8b / 10.9b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.20b - CFO 1.19b) / TA 14.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.32 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 133.13 with a total of 690,335 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.36%, over one month by -1.23%, over three months by -9.87% and over the past year by +4.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 128.30 (which is 3.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.18. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 170.6 | 28.2% |
P/E Trailing = 11.0169
P/E Forward = 9.9701
P/S = 1.17
P/B = 1.4611
P/EG = 0.8721
Revenue TTM = 10.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.59b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.67b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 276.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 147.3m
Net Debt = 2.00b USD (calculated: Debt 3.06b - CCE 1.06b)
Enterprise Value = 14.6b USD (12.6b + Debt 3.06b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.59b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 13.38x (Enterprise Value 14.6b / FCF TTM 1.09b)
FCF Yield = 7.47% (FCF TTM 1.09b / Enterprise Value 14.6b)
FCF Margin = 10.13% (FCF TTM 1.09b / Revenue TTM 10.8b)
Net Margin = 11.14% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Revenue TTM 10.8b)
Gross Margin = 24.25% ((Revenue TTM 10.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.52% (prev 23.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 14.6b / Total Assets 14.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 3.06b)
Taxrate = 24.71% (393.3m / 1.59b)
NOPAT = 1.20b (EBIT 1.59b * (1 - 24.71%))
Current Ratio = 3.90 (Total Current Assets 13.7b / Total Current Liabilities 3.51b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 3.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.53b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.20 (Net Debt 2.00b / EBITDA 1.67b)
Debt / FCF = 1.84 (Net Debt 2.00b / FCF TTM 1.09b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.24% (Net Income 1.20b / Total Assets 14.7b)
RoE = 14.23% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.42b)
RoCE = 14.20% (EBIT 1.59b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.42b + L.T.Debt 2.77b))
RoIC = 10.96% (NOPAT 1.20b / Invested Capital 10.9b)
WACC = 7.82% (E(12.6b)/V(15.6b) * Re(9.72%) + D(3.06b)/V(15.6b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.67 | Cagr: -4.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.17b ; Y5≈1.72b
[DCF] Fair Price = 259.7 (EV 25.9b - Net Debt 2.00b = Equity 23.9b / Shares 92.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -22.10 | EPS CAGR: -1.66% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.81 | Revenue CAGR: 3.20% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=-1.95% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.72 | Chg30d=-0.34% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-5.7% | GrowthRev=-1.2%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=13.74 | Chg30d=-2.12% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+8.0% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=1, down=9)