TOST Stock Analysis: Toast | NYSE

Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.716m USD | 12M Return: -33.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Restaurant Software, Payment Processing, Online Ordering, Kitchen Displays
Total Rating 53
Safety 73
Buy Signal -0.53
Software - Infrastructure
Industry Rotation: -6.7
Market Cap: 16.7B
Avg Turnover: 298M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility48.4%
VaR 5th Pctl8.48%
VaR vs Median6.31%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Rel. Str. IBD12
Rel. Str. Peer Group25
Character TTM
Beta1.355
Beta Downside1.373
Hurst Exponent0.519
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD54.71%
CAGR/Max DD0.16
CAGR/Mean DD0.41
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TOST over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.3889, "2021-09": -1.05, "2021-12": -0.15, "2022-03": -0.2, "2022-06": -0.19, "2022-09": -0.15, "2022-12": -0.18, "2023-03": -0.16, "2023-06": -0.11, "2023-09": -0.06, "2023-12": -0.08, "2024-03": -0.15, "2024-06": 0.02, "2024-09": 0.07, "2024-12": 0.05, "2025-03": 0.2, "2025-06": 0.25, "2025-09": 0.28, "2025-12": 0.27, "2026-03": 0.2,
Last SUE: 1.56
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of TOST over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 426, 2021-09: 486, 2021-12: 514.873, 2022-03: 535, 2022-06: 675, 2022-09: 752, 2022-12: 768, 2023-03: 819, 2023-06: 978, 2023-09: 1032, 2023-12: 1036, 2024-03: 1075, 2024-06: 1242, 2024-09: 1305, 2024-12: 1338, 2025-03: 1337, 2025-06: 1550, 2025-09: 1633, 2025-12: 1633, 2026-03: 1630,
Rev. CAGR: 27.03%
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Last SUE: -0.12
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Extended 1w
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 4.8 years of data

Jan +2.7% 0
Feb -9.1% 21
Mar +1.0% 0
Apr +4.8% 16
May +7.5% 16
Jun +2.9% 16
Jul +0.5% 0
Aug -4.4% 0
Sep -7.5% 0
Oct -0.6% 0
Nov -3.7% 17
Dec +6.3% 14

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TOST Toast

Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based software and payments platform built specifically for the restaurant industry. Founded in 2011 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, the company serves customers in the United States, Ireland, India, and other international markets. It was originally incorporated as Opti Systems, Inc. and adopted the Toast name in May 2012.

The companys offerings combine restaurant point-of-sale software with adjacent operational tools, including payroll and team management, inventory and supply chain management, kitchen display systems, online ordering and delivery, and multi-location administration. Its xtraCHEF by Toast product handles back-office functions such as accounts payable automation, recipe costing, and ingredient price tracking. Toast also sells restaurant-grade hardware and provides integrated payment processing as part of the platform.

Although Toast is often associated with software, NYSE-listed shares (TOST) are classified by GICS within the Financials sector under Transaction & Payment Processing Services, reflecting the role of integrated payments in its business. Its bundled SaaS-plus-payments approach is a common structure for vertical software providers serving merchant categories where card acceptance is central to daily operations.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Gross payment volume growth outpaces US restaurant industry recovery
  • Subscription services ARR scales with new restaurant additions
  • Payment processing margins face competition from Block and Clover
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5
Net Income: 412.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.23 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 23.70% < 20% (prev 23.00%; Δ 0.71% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 714.0m > Net Income 412.0m
Net Debt (-1.75b) to EBITDA (473.0m): -3.71 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.44 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (602.0m) vs 12m ago -0.17% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.28% > 18% (prev 24.65%; Δ 1.63% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 227.9% > 50% (prev 203.7%; Δ 24.19% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 4.93
A: 0.49 (Total Current Assets 2.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.06b) / Total Assets 3.09b
B: -0.37 (Retained Earnings -1.14b / Total Assets 3.09b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 417.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.83b)
D: 1.80 (Book Value of Equity 1.99b / Total Liabilities 1.10b)
Altman-Z'' = 4.93 = AAA
Beneish M -3.12
DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 138.0m/118.0m, Revenue 6.45b/5.22b)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 24.65% / 26.28%)
AQI: 0.75 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.16)
SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 6.45b / 5.22b)
TATA: -0.10 (NI 412.0m - CFO 714.0m) / TA 3.09b)
Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of TOST shares?

As of July 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.82 with a total of 10,296,900 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.84%, over one month by +14.96%, over three months by +6.66% and over the past year by -33.87%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.70 (which is 7.4% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is TOST a buy, sell or hold?

Toast has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.10. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOST.

  • StrongBuy: 14
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 11
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TOST price?
Analysts Target Price 33.9 17.6%
Toast (TOST) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 16.7b (16.7b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 43.0149
P/E Forward = 20.79
P/S = 2.5932
P/B = 8.3677
P/EG = 0.2473
Revenue TTM = 6.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 417.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 473.0m USD
 Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 17.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 17.0m already included)
Net Debt = -1.75b USD (calculated: Debt 17.0m - CCE 1.77b)
Enterprise Value = 15.0b USD (16.7b + Debt 17.0m - CCE 1.77b)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 417.0m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = 22.88x (Enterprise Value 15.0b / FCF TTM 654.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.37% (FCF TTM 654.0m / Enterprise Value 15.0b)
FCF Margin = 10.15% (FCF TTM 654.0m / Revenue TTM 6.45b)
Net Margin = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 412.0m / Revenue TTM 6.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.28% ((Revenue TTM 6.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.42% (prev 25.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.84 (Enterprise Value 15.0b / Total Assets 3.09b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 17.0m)
Taxrate = 1.67% (7.00m / 419.0m)
NOPAT = 410.0m (EBIT 417.0m * (1 - 1.67%))
Current Ratio = 2.44 (Total Current Assets 2.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.06b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 17.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.99b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.71 (Net Debt -1.75b / EBITDA 473.0m)
Debt / FCF = -2.68 (Net Debt -1.75b / FCF TTM 654.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.56% (Net Income 412.0m / Total Assets 3.09b)
RoE = 20.74% (Net Income TTM 412.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.99b)
RoCE = 20.54% (EBIT 417.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.09b - Current Liab 1.06b))
RoIC = 24.01% (NOPAT 410.0m / Invested Capital 1.71b)
WACC = 10.74% (E(16.7b)/V(16.7b) * Re(10.75%) + D(17.0m)/V(16.7b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 10.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 77.78 | Cagr: 4.86%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.64% ; FCFF base≈555.6m ; Y1≈636.9m ; Y5≈937.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 22.61 (EV 9.91b - Net Debt -1.75b = Equity 11.7b / Shares 516.0m; r=10.74% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.56 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.80 | Revenue CAGR: 27.03% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+1.55% | Revisions=-30% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+1.50% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.35 | Chg30d=+0.20% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+33.3% | GrowthRev=+20.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-0.15% | Revisions=+36% | GrowthEPS=+25.7% | GrowthRev=+18.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +42% (up=27, down=10)