(TPB) Turning Point Brands - Ratings and Ratios
Rolling Papers, Cigars, Tobacco Chew, Snuff, Accessories
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.27% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.70% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.78% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.6% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.10% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.51 |
| Alpha | 71.36 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.477 |
| Beta | 0.571 |
| Beta Downside | 0.881 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.58% |
| Mean DD | 5.99% |
| Median DD | 4.51% |
Description: TPB Turning Point Brands November 13, 2025
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB) manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products across the United States and Canada through two primary segments: Zig-Zag Products, which offers rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, lighters and related accessories under the Zig-Zag brand, and Stoker’s Products, which produces moist-snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco under brands such as Stoker’s, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River. The company also distributes cannabis accessories and sells to a broad retail base that includes independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandisers, drug stores, and non-traditional channels.
Key performance indicators from recent filings show TPB generated approximately $400 million in net revenue in FY 2023, with a gross margin around 45%-reflecting the relatively high-margin nature of tobacco and rolling-paper products. The segment’s growth is modestly tied to consumer-spending trends and regulatory pressure on nicotine products; for example, a 3-point decline in U.S. cigarette consumption in 2022 reduced overall tobacco demand, while the rise of “roll-your-own” markets provided a tailwind for Zig-Zag sales. Additionally, the company’s exposure to the cannabis-accessory niche aligns with the projected 12% CAGR in the U.S. cannabis-related accessories market through 2027.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial metrics and scenario analysis for TPB.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (52.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 26.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -8.84pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 74.61% (prev 38.68%; Δ 35.93pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 50.3m <= Net Income 52.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (106.0m) to EBITDA (118.2m) ratio: 0.90 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 5.56 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (18.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.41% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 57.17% (prev 54.84%; Δ 2.33pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.80% (prev 74.61%; Δ -3.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.49 (EBITDA TTM 118.2m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.46
| (A) 0.44 = (Total Current Assets 396.4m - Total Current Liabilities 71.3m) / Total Assets 742.8m |
| (B) 0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 192.9m / Total Assets 742.8m |
| (C) 0.18 = EBIT TTM 111.3m / Avg Total Assets 615.4m |
| (D) 0.50 = Book Value of Equity 191.2m / Total Liabilities 384.7m |
| Total Rating: 5.46 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.97
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.84% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.94% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.90 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 9.56)% |
| 7. RoE 22.05% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 5.80% |
| 9. EPS Trend 81.48% |
What is the price of TPB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.74%, over one month by +7.17%, over three months by +6.94% and over the past year by +86.92%.
Is TPB a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TPB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 118.8 | 8.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 118.8 | 8.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 148.6 | 36.1% |
TPB Fundamental Data Overview December 15, 2025
P/E Trailing = 32.4185
P/E Forward = 22.8311
P/S = 4.6115
P/B = 5.8418
P/EG = 0.0499
Beta = 0.897
Revenue TTM = 435.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 111.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 293.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.97m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 307.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 106.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.12b USD (2.01b + Debt 307.2m - CCE 201.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.49 (Ebit TTM 111.3m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.84% (FCF TTM 39.0m / Enterprise Value 2.12b)
FCF Margin = 8.94% (FCF TTM 39.0m / Revenue TTM 435.7m)
Net Margin = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 52.4m / Revenue TTM 435.7m)
Gross Margin = 57.17% ((Revenue TTM 435.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 186.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.19% (prev 57.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.85 (Enterprise Value 2.12b / Total Assets 742.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.27% (Interest Expense 6.99m / Debt 307.2m)
Taxrate = 21.41% (6.47m / 30.2m)
NOPAT = 87.5m (EBIT 111.3m * (1 - 21.41%))
Current Ratio = 5.56 (Total Current Assets 396.4m / Total Current Liabilities 71.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 307.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 343.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 106.0m / EBITDA 118.2m)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 106.0m / FCF TTM 39.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 237.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.05% (Net Income 52.4m / Total Assets 742.8m)
RoE = 22.05% (Net Income TTM 52.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 237.5m)
RoCE = 20.97% (EBIT 111.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 237.5m + L.T.Debt 293.4m))
RoIC = 16.84% (NOPAT 87.5m / Invested Capital 519.6m)
WACC = 7.28% (E(2.01b)/V(2.32b) * Re(8.12%) + D(307.2m)/V(2.32b) * Rd(2.27%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -3.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.07% ; FCFE base≈50.9m ; Y1≈62.2m ; Y5≈103.9m
Fair Price DCF = 91.51 (DCF Value 1.75b / Shares Outstanding 19.1m; 5y FCF grow 23.79% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 81.48 | EPS CAGR: 19.07% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 13
Revenue Correlation: 5.80 | Revenue CAGR: 3.31% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.13 | Chg30d=+0.300 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+6.4% | Growth Revenue=+11.1%
Additional Sources for TPB Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle