(TPB) Turning Point Brands - Overview
Stock: Rolling Papers, Cigars, Chewing Tobacco, Moist Snuff, Lighters
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.37% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.56% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.06% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 10.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.63 |
| Alpha | 100.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.596 |
| Beta Downside | 0.901 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.58% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.44 |
Description: TPB Turning Point Brands January 16, 2026
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE: TPB) manufactures, markets, and distributes consumer tobacco and related products in the U.S. and Canada through two business segments: Zig-Zag Products, which sells rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, lighters and accessories under the Zig-Zag brand; and Stoker’s Products, which produces moist-snuff and loose-leaf chewing tobacco under brands such as Stoker’s, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy and Wind River, as well as cannabis accessories. The company sells primarily to wholesale distributors and retail merchants across convenience stores, tobacco outlets, mass-merchandisers, drug stores and other non-traditional channels. It was founded in 1988, rebranded from North Atlantic Holding Company in 2015, and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023) show TPB generating approximately $370 million in revenue, a 4 % year-over-year increase driven by higher rolling-paper volumes and modest price-adjustments in its moist-snuff line. The firm reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 19 %, consistent with the broader tobacco sub-industry, which typically enjoys cash-flow yields above 12 % due to strong pricing power and inelastic demand. A material driver of future performance is regulatory risk: any tightening of flavored-tobacco bans or federal nicotine-product restrictions could compress margins, while the ongoing shift toward reduced-risk products (e.g., nicotine pouches) presents a growth tail-wind that TPB is beginning to address through its cannabis-accessory offerings.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, you might explore the TPB page on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 52.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 74.61% < 20% (prev 38.68%; Δ 35.93% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 50.3m > Net Income 52.4m |
| Net Debt (106.0m) to EBITDA (118.2m): 0.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.56 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.7m) vs 12m ago 1.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.17% > 18% (prev 0.55%; Δ 5662 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.80% > 50% (prev 74.61%; Δ -3.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.49 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 118.2m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m) |
Altman Z'' 5.46
| A: 0.44 (Total Current Assets 396.4m - Total Current Liabilities 71.3m) / Total Assets 742.8m |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 192.9m / Total Assets 742.8m) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 111.3m / Avg Total Assets 615.4m) |
| D: 0.50 (Book Value of Equity 191.2m / Total Liabilities 384.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.46 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 27.8m/25.8m, Revenue 435.7m/364.1m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 57.17% / 54.84%) |
| AQI: 0.74 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.55) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 435.7m / 364.1m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 52.4m - CFO 50.3m) / TA 742.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of TPB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.28%, over one month by +25.93%, over three months by +29.81% and over the past year by +94.25%.
Is TPB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TPB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 121.3 | -6.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 121.3 | -6.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 187.4 | 44.2% |
TPB Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.2467
P/S = 5.3026
P/B = 6.7279
P/EG = 0.0499
Revenue TTM = 435.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 111.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 293.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.97m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 307.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 106.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.42b USD (2.31b + Debt 307.2m - CCE 201.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.49 (Ebit TTM 111.3m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)
EV/FCF = 62.01x (Enterprise Value 2.42b / FCF TTM 39.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.61% (FCF TTM 39.0m / Enterprise Value 2.42b)
FCF Margin = 8.94% (FCF TTM 39.0m / Revenue TTM 435.7m)
Net Margin = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 52.4m / Revenue TTM 435.7m)
Gross Margin = 57.17% ((Revenue TTM 435.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 186.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.19% (prev 57.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.25 (Enterprise Value 2.42b / Total Assets 742.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.27% (Interest Expense 6.99m / Debt 307.2m)
Taxrate = 21.41% (6.47m / 30.2m)
NOPAT = 87.5m (EBIT 111.3m * (1 - 21.41%))
Current Ratio = 5.56 (Total Current Assets 396.4m / Total Current Liabilities 71.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 307.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 343.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 106.0m / EBITDA 118.2m)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 106.0m / FCF TTM 39.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 237.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.51% (Net Income 52.4m / Total Assets 742.8m)
RoE = 22.05% (Net Income TTM 52.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 237.5m)
RoCE = 20.97% (EBIT 111.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 237.5m + L.T.Debt 293.4m))
RoIC = 16.84% (NOPAT 87.5m / Invested Capital 519.6m)
WACC = 7.37% (E(2.31b)/V(2.62b) * Re(8.11%) + D(307.2m)/V(2.62b) * Rd(2.27%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -3.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.23% ; FCFF base≈50.9m ; Y1≈62.2m ; Y5≈103.7m
Fair Price DCF = 99.91 (EV 2.01b - Net Debt 106.0m = Equity 1.91b / Shares 19.1m; r=7.37% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.79% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 0.42 | EPS CAGR: -45.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 5.80 | Revenue CAGR: 3.31% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.13 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+6.4% | Growth Revenue=+11.1%