TPB Stock Analysis: Turning Point Brands | NYSE
Tobacco | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.256m USD | 12M Return: -29.5% | US90041L1052 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 29.2M
EPS Trend: 63.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 73.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is a U.S.-based consumer products company that manufactures, markets, and distributes branded tobacco, smoking accessories, and related products through two operating segments. The Zig-Zag Products segment focuses on rolling papers, tubes, cigars, cigar wraps, lighters, and accessories sold under the well-known Zig-Zag brand, while the Stokers Products segment produces moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco under brands including Stokers, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River. The company also markets cannabis accessories and distributes its products to wholesale distributors and a broad range of retail channels, including convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food and drug stores, mass merchandisers, and non-traditional retailers. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, the company was originally named North Atlantic Holding Company before adopting its current name in November 2015 and completing its IPO in May 2016.
As a small-cap player in the GICS Tobacco sub-industry, TPB operates in a heavily regulated sector: the U.S. tobacco industry is overseen by the FDA through the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, which includes premarket review requirements for new products and restrictions on marketing. The Zig-Zag brand itself is a heritage label with roots dating back to late-19th-century France, giving the company a long-established position in the rolling papers category that complements its domestic smokeless tobacco portfolio.
- Zig-Zag cannabis accessories drive segment revenue growth
- Zyn nicotine pouches erode Stokers smokeless tobacco market share
- FDA tobacco regulation and excise tax increases pressure margins
| Net Income: 44.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 81.21% < 20% (prev 53.43%; Δ 27.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 32.2m > Net Income 44.6m |
| Net Debt (58.9m) to EBITDA (102.1m): 0.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (20.2m) vs 12m ago 10.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.16% > 18% (prev 56.22%; Δ 2.94% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.92% > 50% (prev 68.39%; Δ 1.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 93.8m / Interest Expense TTM 24.5m) |
| A: 0.48 (Total Current Assets 500.1m - Total Current Liabilities 88.2m) / Total Assets 855.2m |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 211.7m / Total Assets 855.2m) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 93.8m / Avg Total Assets 725.5m) |
| D: 1.07 (Book Value of Equity 430.1m / Total Liabilities 401.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.96 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.67 (Receivables 37.9m/45.2m, Revenue 507.2m/407.4m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 56.22% / 59.16%) |
| AQI: 0.78 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 507.2m / 407.4m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 44.6m - CFO 32.2m) / TA 855.2m) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 61.59 with a total of 381,045 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.55%, over one month by +0.46%, over three months by -23.52% and over the past year by -29.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.30 (which is 5.3% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Turning Point Brands has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TPB.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 118.5 | 92.4% |
P/E Trailing = 27.0043
P/E Forward = 38.1679
P/S = 2.4763
P/B = 2.8202
P/EG = 0.0484
Revenue TTM = 507.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 93.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 102.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 294.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.56m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 327.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.5m
Net Debt = 58.9m USD (calculated: Debt 327.2m - CCE 268.3m)
Enterprise Value = 1.31b USD (1.26b + Debt 327.2m - CCE 268.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.82 (Ebit TTM 93.8m / Interest Expense TTM 24.5m)
EV/FCF = 66.98x (Enterprise Value 1.31b / FCF TTM 19.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.49% (FCF TTM 19.6m / Enterprise Value 1.31b)
FCF Margin = 3.87% (FCF TTM 19.6m / Revenue TTM 507.2m)
Net Margin = 8.78% (Net Income TTM 44.6m / Revenue TTM 507.2m)
Gross Margin = 59.16% ((Revenue TTM 507.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 207.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.55% (prev 54.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.54 (Enterprise Value 1.31b / Total Assets 855.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.50% (Interest Expense 24.5m / Debt 327.2m)
Taxrate = 13.84% (9.58m / 69.2m)
NOPAT = 80.8m (EBIT 93.8m * (1 - 13.84%))
Current Ratio = 5.67 (Total Current Assets 500.1m / Total Current Liabilities 88.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.76 (Debt 327.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 430.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.58 (Net Debt 58.9m / EBITDA 102.1m)
Debt / FCF = 3.00 (Net Debt 58.9m / FCF TTM 19.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 373.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.14% (Net Income 44.6m / Total Assets 855.2m)
RoE = 11.93% (Net Income TTM 44.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 373.5m)
RoCE = 14.04% (EBIT 93.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 373.5m + L.T.Debt 294.1m))
RoIC = 10.81% (NOPAT 80.8m / Invested Capital 747.2m)
WACC = 7.17% (E(1.26b)/V(1.58b) * Re(7.36%) + D(327.2m)/V(1.58b) * Rd(7.50%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 7.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 4.43 | Cagr: -0.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈32.7m ; Y1≈28.7m ; Y5≈23.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 15.61 (EV 371.8m - Net Debt 58.9m = Equity 312.9m / Shares 20.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 63.95 | EPS CAGR: 8.68% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.00 | Revenue CAGR: 9.44% | SUE: 0.99 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-7.53% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=-6.56% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-55.6% | GrowthRev=+22.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.25 | Chg30d=-7.16% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+27.9% | GrowthRev=+12.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)