TPB Stock Analysis: Turning Point Brands | NYSE
Tobacco | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.698m USD | 12M Return: 5.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 31.8M
EPS Trend: 97.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 51.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is a Louisville, Kentucky-based consumer products company that manufactures, markets, and distributes branded tobacco and smoking-related products across the United States and Canada. Founded in 1988 (formerly North Atlantic Holding Company, renamed in November 2015), the company operates through two segments: Zig-Zag Products, which sells rolling papers, tubes, cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, lighters, and accessories; and Stokers Products, which produces moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco under brands including Stokers, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River. TPB also markets cannabis accessories alongside its tobacco portfolio.
The company distributes its products through wholesale distributors and retail merchants serving convenience stores (independent and chain), tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandisers, drug stores, and non-traditional retail channels. Classified in the Consumer Staples sector under the GICS Tobacco sub-industry, TPB operates in a heavily regulated environment governed by FDA oversight of tobacco products, while its cannabis accessories segment provides exposure to a regulated but adjacent consumer category.
- FDA flavored tobacco rules reshape loose-leaf demand
- Zig-Zag cannabis accessories accelerate double-digit segment growth
- Stokers moist snuff pricing offsets declining legacy tobacco volumes
| Net Income: 55.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 72.14% < 20% (prev 52.19%; Δ 19.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 20.5m > Net Income 55.4m |
| Net Debt (133.9m) to EBITDA (111.6m): 1.20 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.5m) vs 12m ago 6.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.77% > 18% (prev 55.42%; Δ 1.35% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.96% > 50% (prev 68.02%; Δ 3.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.08 > 6 (EBIT TTM 103.8m / Interest Expense TTM 25.4m) |
| A: 0.45 (Total Current Assets 418.2m - Total Current Liabilities 71.3m) / Total Assets 772.1m |
| B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 209.7m / Total Assets 772.1m) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 103.8m / Avg Total Assets 668.3m) |
| D: 0.95 (Book Value of Equity 365.8m / Total Liabilities 386.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.87 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 42.7m/30.0m, Revenue 480.9m/384.0m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 55.42% / 56.77%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.39 / AQ_t-1 0.47) |
| SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 480.9m / 384.0m) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 55.4m - CFO 20.5m) / TA 772.1m) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 83.40 with a total of 229,670 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.28%, over one month by -0.29%, over three months by +5.21% and over the past year by +5.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 73.00 (which is 12.5% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Turning Point Brands has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TPB.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 130 | 55.9% |
P/E Trailing = 30.0171
P/E Forward = 62.5
P/S = 3.5299
P/B = 4.6412
P/EG = 0.0484
Revenue TTM = 480.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 103.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 111.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 293.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.18m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 326.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.2m
Net Debt = 133.9m USD (calculated: Debt 326.3m - CCE 192.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.83b USD (1.70b + Debt 326.3m - CCE 192.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.08 (Ebit TTM 103.8m / Interest Expense TTM 25.4m)
EV/FCF = 457.2x (Enterprise Value 1.83b / FCF TTM 4.01m)
FCF Yield = 0.22% (FCF TTM 4.01m / Enterprise Value 1.83b)
FCF Margin = 0.83% (FCF TTM 4.01m / Revenue TTM 480.9m)
Net Margin = 11.53% (Net Income TTM 55.4m / Revenue TTM 480.9m)
Gross Margin = 56.77% ((Revenue TTM 480.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 207.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.95% (prev 55.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.37 (Enterprise Value 1.83b / Total Assets 772.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.79% (Interest Expense 25.4m / Debt 326.3m)
Taxrate = 13.27% (10.1m / 76.4m)
NOPAT = 90.0m (EBIT 103.8m * (1 - 13.27%))
Current Ratio = 5.87 (Total Current Assets 418.2m / Total Current Liabilities 71.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 326.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 365.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.20 (Net Debt 133.9m / EBITDA 111.6m)
Debt / FCF = 33.42 (Net Debt 133.9m / FCF TTM 4.01m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 320.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.29% (Net Income 55.4m / Total Assets 772.1m)
RoE = 17.29% (Net Income TTM 55.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 320.6m)
RoCE = 16.88% (EBIT 103.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 320.6m + L.T.Debt 293.9m))
RoIC = 13.20% (NOPAT 90.0m / Invested Capital 681.9m)
WACC = 7.35% (E(1.70b)/V(2.02b) * Re(7.47%) + D(326.3m)/V(2.02b) * Rd(7.79%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 7.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -39.81 | Cagr: -1.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈24.6m ; Y1≈21.5m ; Y5≈17.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.51 (EV 279.3m - Net Debt 133.9m = Equity 145.4m / Shares 19.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.44 | EPS CAGR: 14.51% | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 50.99 | Revenue CAGR: 5.25% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-44.95% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-15.22% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=-13.24% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-53.1% | GrowthRev=+13.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+54.0% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -73% (up=0, down=8)