(TPH) TRI Pointe Homes - Ratings and Ratios
Homes, Attached, Detached, Mortgage, Title
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 71.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.28% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.08 |
| Alpha | -12.21 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.364 |
| Beta | 0.593 |
| Beta Downside | 0.315 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.97% |
| Mean DD | 14.46% |
| Median DD | 10.21% |
Description: TPH TRI Pointe Homes November 09, 2025
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE: TPH) designs, builds, and sells single-family attached and detached homes across the United States, operating through a Homebuilding segment and a Financial Services segment that offers mortgage, title, escrow, and property-and-casualty insurance solutions. The firm markets its homes via its own sales force and independent brokers, while also owning or controlling the land on which its communities are developed. Established in 2009 and headquartered in Incline Village, Nevada, the company rebranded from TRI Pointe Group to Tri Pointe Homes in January 2021.
Key performance indicators from the most recent quarter (Q2 2024) show a 12% year-over-year increase in home deliveries to 2,200 units, with an average selling price (ASP) of $475 k-up 9% YoY, reflecting strong demand in the Sun Belt and a favorable pricing power environment. The homebuilding sector remains sensitive to mortgage rates; the current 30-year fixed rate of ~6.2% is above the 2022-2023 average, creating headwinds for affordability but also enabling builders with strong balance sheets to capture market share. Additionally, Tri Pointe’s financial services arm contributed roughly 6% of total revenue, providing a modest but growing cross-sell opportunity that can improve overall margins.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of TPH’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you might find the research tools on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (310.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 225.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 111.0% (prev 89.24%; Δ 21.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 300.7m <= Net Income 310.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (473.9m) to EBITDA (453.2m) ratio: 1.05 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 24.46 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (89.6m) change vs 12m ago -5.32% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 22.58% (prev 23.29%; Δ -0.71pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 76.82% (prev 94.13%; Δ -17.31pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| error: Interest Coverage Ratio cannot be calculated (needs EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
Altman Z'' 10.27
| (A) 0.84 = (Total Current Assets 4.34b - Total Current Liabilities 177.6m) / Total Assets 4.99b |
| (B) 0.66 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.30b / Total Assets 4.99b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 423.2m / Avg Total Assets 4.88b |
| (D) 1.96 = Book Value of Equity 3.30b / Total Liabilities 1.69b |
| Total Rating: 10.27 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.42
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.55% |
| 3. FCF Margin 7.23% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.38 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.05 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.39)% |
| 7. RoE 9.36% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -12.40% |
| 9. EPS Trend -47.70% |
What is the price of TPH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.20%, over one month by +8.32%, over three months by +12.05% and over the past year by +3.33%.
Is TPH a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TPH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39.4 | 11.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39.4 | 11.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.6 | 11.8% |
TPH Fundamental Data Overview January 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.2275
P/S = 0.7195
P/B = 0.8249
P/EG = 1.0178
Beta = 1.358
Revenue TTM = 3.75b USD
EBIT TTM = 423.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 453.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.18b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 118.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.27b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 473.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.17b USD (2.70b + Debt 1.27b - CCE 792.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 423.2m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 11.70x (Enterprise Value 3.17b / FCF TTM 271.3m)
FCF Yield = 8.55% (FCF TTM 271.3m / Enterprise Value 3.17b)
FCF Margin = 7.23% (FCF TTM 271.3m / Revenue TTM 3.75b)
Net Margin = 8.27% (Net Income TTM 310.1m / Revenue TTM 3.75b)
Gross Margin = 22.58% ((Revenue TTM 3.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.90b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.46% (prev 21.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 3.17b / Total Assets 4.99b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.77% (Interest Expense 9.76m / Debt 1.27b)
Taxrate = 27.00% (20.8m / 76.9m)
NOPAT = 309.0m (EBIT 423.2m * (1 - 27.00%))
Current Ratio = 24.46 (Total Current Assets 4.34b / Total Current Liabilities 177.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.05 (Net Debt 473.9m / EBITDA 453.2m)
Debt / FCF = 1.75 (Net Debt 473.9m / FCF TTM 271.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.35% (Net Income 310.1m / Total Assets 4.99b)
RoE = 9.36% (Net Income TTM 310.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.31b)
RoCE = 9.43% (EBIT 423.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.31b + L.T.Debt 1.18b))
RoIC = 7.09% (NOPAT 309.0m / Invested Capital 4.36b)
WACC = 5.69% (E(2.70b)/V(3.97b) * Re(8.10%) + D(1.27b)/V(3.97b) * Rd(0.77%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.10%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.14% ; FCFF base≈315.2m ; Y1≈281.9m ; Y5≈238.7m
Fair Price DCF = 78.50 (EV 7.22b - Net Debt 473.9m = Equity 6.75b / Shares 86.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -13.04% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -47.70 | EPS CAGR: -45.60% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -12.40 | Revenue CAGR: -8.85% | SUE: 3.54 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=-0.047 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.30 | Chg30d=-0.078 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=-18.8% | Growth Revenue=-7.5%
Additional Sources for TPH Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle