TPL Stock Analysis: Texas Pacific Land | NYSE

Land Management, Water Services, Oil Royalties, Easements

Total Rating 46

Safety 26

Buy Signal -0.46

Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -11.9

Market Cap: 23.3B
Avg Turnover: 128M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility48.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.85%

VaR vs Median-1.12%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.28

Rel. Str. IBD24

Rel. Str. Peer Group15.1

Character TTM

Beta0.641

Beta Downside1.176

Hurst Exponent0.555

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD52.22%

CAGR/Max DD0.43

CAGR/Mean DD0.94

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 30.87%
EPS Trend: 90.9%

Last SUE: 0.07
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 13.37%
Rev. Trend: 98.8%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -1.7% 8

Feb +2.0% 8

Mar -2.8% 18

Apr -0.6% 10

May -6.2% 9

Jun +1.2% 8

Jul -2.1% 5

Aug -0.2% 7

Sep -1.3% 24

Oct +2.4% 18

Nov +1.3% 0

Dec +1.1% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TPL Texas Pacific Land

>Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates through two segments: Land and Resource Management and Water Services and Operations, both centered on the Permian Basin-one of the most prolific oil-producing regions in the United States. The Land segment manages surface acreage and oil and gas royalty interests, generates revenue from easements (for pipelines, power lines, and subsurface wellbores), leases land for processing, storage, and compression facilities, and sells materials such as caliche and sand. The Water segment provides full-service offerings to Permian operators, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions, while also holding produced-water royalties.

Unlike traditional exploration and production companies, TPL functions primarily as a royalty owner and landowner, earning passive income from third-party drilling and production activity on its acreage without bearing direct drilling costs. The company holds a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres, a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres, and approximately 33,000 additional net royalty acres, for roughly 224,000 total net royalty acres in the Permian Basin.

Founded in 1888 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, TPL is one of the oldest publicly traded companies in the U.S. and is classified within the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, despite its land- and royalty-oriented business model.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Permian Basin oil and gas royalty revenue scales with crude prices
Produced water disposal demand grows with rising Permian drilling activity
Royalty interest acreage monetization drives high-margin land segment earnings
Caliche and surface material sales benefit from infrastructure buildout

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5

Net Income: 541.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.28 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 37.25% < 20% (prev 82.13%; Δ -44.89% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.32 > 3% & CFO 603.2m > Net Income 541.4m
Net Debt (-233.1m) to EBITDA (745.9m): -0.31 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.55 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.0m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 83.81% > 18% (prev 89.59%; Δ -5.77% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 54.99% > 50% (prev 52.89%; Δ 2.11% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 983.1 > 6 (EBIT TTM 678.3m / Interest Expense TTM 690k)

Altman Z'' 10.00

A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 428.4m - Total Current Liabilities 94.1m) / Total Assets 1.86b
B: 0.96 (Retained Earnings 1.79b / Total Assets 1.86b)
C: 0.42 (EBIT TTM 678.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b)
D: 8.94 (Book Value of Equity 1.67b / Total Liabilities 187.1m)
Altman-Z'' = 16.50 = AAA

Beneish M -0.33

DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 174.8m/114.3m, Revenue 897.5m/742.9m)
GMI: 1.07 (GM 89.59% / 83.81%)
AQI: 4.83 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.14)
SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 897.5m / 742.9m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 541.4m - CFO 603.2m) / TA 1.86b)
Beneish M = -0.33 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of TPL shares?

As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 340.19 with a total of 291,377 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.26%, over one month by -7.39%, over three months by -16.32% and over the past year by +6.11%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 322.20 (which is 5.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TPL a buy, sell or hold?

Texas Pacific Land has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TPL.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the TPL price?

Analysts Target Price	443	30.2%

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 23.3b (23.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 43.464
P/E Forward = 37.7358
P/S = 25.9863
P/B = 13.8469
P/EG = 7.3295
Revenue TTM = 897.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 678.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 745.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 15.5m already included)
Net Debt = -233.1m USD (calculated: Debt 15.5m - CCE 248.6m)
Enterprise Value = 23.1b USD (23.3b + Debt 15.5m - CCE 248.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 983.1 (Ebit TTM 678.3m / Interest Expense TTM 690k)
EV/FCF = 43.84x (Enterprise Value 23.1b / FCF TTM 526.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.28% (FCF TTM 526.7m / Enterprise Value 23.1b)
FCF Margin = 58.68% (FCF TTM 526.7m / Revenue TTM 897.5m)
Net Margin = 60.32% (Net Income TTM 541.4m / Revenue TTM 897.5m)
Gross Margin = 83.81% ((Revenue TTM 897.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 145.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.54% (prev 82.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 12.42 (Enterprise Value 23.1b / Total Assets 1.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.45% (Interest Expense 690k / Debt 15.5m)
Taxrate = 20.87% (142.8m / 684.2m)
NOPAT = 536.8m (EBIT 678.3m * (1 - 20.87%))
Current Ratio = 4.55 (Total Current Assets 428.4m / Total Current Liabilities 94.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 15.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.31 (Net Debt -233.1m / EBITDA 745.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.44 (Net Debt -233.1m / FCF TTM 526.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.51b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 33.17% (Net Income 541.4m / Total Assets 1.86b)
RoE = 35.77% (Net Income TTM 541.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.51b)
RoCE = 38.42% (EBIT 678.3m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.86b - Current Liab 94.1m))
RoIC = 31.20% (NOPAT 536.8m / Invested Capital 1.72b)
WACC = 8.24% (E(23.3b)/V(23.3b) * Re(8.24%) + D(15.5m)/V(23.3b) * Rd(4.45%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -66.61 | Cagr: -0.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈463.6m ; Y1≈531.5m ; Y5≈782.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 174.0 (EV 11.8b - Net Debt -233.1m = Equity 12.0b / Shares 69.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.86 | EPS CAGR: 30.87% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.84 | Revenue CAGR: 13.37% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.36 | Chg30d=+10.91% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.30 | Chg30d=+6.79% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+33.5% | GrowthRev=+29.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.32 | Chg30d=+7.77% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+12.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)