TPL Stock Analysis: Texas Pacific Land | NYSE

Land Royalties, Water Disposal, Oil Royalties, Caliche

Total Rating 52

Safety 33

Buy Signal -0.49

Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: +19.8

Market Cap: 25.1B
Avg Turnover: 136M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility48.0%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.79%

VaR vs Median-1.09%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.57

Rel. Str. IBD36.5

Rel. Str. Peer Group16.4

Character TTM

Beta0.689

Beta Downside1.125

Hurst Exponent0.529

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD52.22%

CAGR/Max DD0.46

CAGR/Mean DD1.05

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 30.87%
EPS Trend: 90.9%

Last SUE: 0.07
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 13.37%
Rev. Trend: 98.8%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -1.7% 8

Feb +2.0% 8

Mar -2.8% 18

Apr -0.6% 10

May -6.2% 9

Jun +1.2% 8

Jul -2.2% 5

Aug +0.3% 0

Sep -1.3% 24

Oct +2.4% 18

Nov +1.3% 0

Dec +1.1% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TPL Texas Pacific Land

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is a Dallas-based energy company that operates two segments: Land and Resource Management and Water Services and Operations. Its business is concentrated in the Permian Basin, where it earns revenue primarily through nonparticipating perpetual royalty interests (NPRIs) on producing oil and gas properties, rather than through direct drilling operations. Royalty companies like TPL collect a share of production revenue from operators without bearing the capital costs or operational risks of exploration and production.

The Land and Resource Management segment generates income from surface acreage leases, easements for pipelines, power lines, and wellbores, and the sale of materials such as caliche and sand. The Water Services and Operations segment provides sourced, treated, and disposed water for upstream operators, a service that has become increasingly important in the Permian Basin as produced-water volumes rise with higher oil output. TPL also holds produced water royalties, which represent a passive interest in water disposal activities conducted on its land.

Founded in 1888, TPL is one of the oldest publicly traded landholding companies in the United States. Its portfolio of royalty acres across hundreds of thousands of acres in the Permian Basin provides exposure to one of the most prolific oil-producing regions in the country, without the direct operational risk associated with drilling activity.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Permian oil production activity drives royalty and easement revenue
Water services segment expands with produced-water disposal demand
Special dividends continue returning excess capital to shareholders

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5

Net Income: 541.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.28 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 37.25% < 20% (prev 82.13%; Δ -44.89% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.32 > 3% & CFO 603.2m > Net Income 541.4m
Net Debt (-233.1m) to EBITDA (745.9m): -0.31 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.55 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.0m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 83.81% > 18% (prev 89.59%; Δ -5.77% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 54.99% > 50% (prev 52.89%; Δ 2.11% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 983.1 > 6 (EBIT TTM 678.3m / Interest Expense TTM 690k)

Altman Z'' 10.00

A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 428.4m - Total Current Liabilities 94.1m) / Total Assets 1.86b
B: 0.96 (Retained Earnings 1.79b / Total Assets 1.86b)
C: 0.42 (EBIT TTM 678.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b)
D: 8.94 (Book Value of Equity 1.67b / Total Liabilities 187.1m)
Altman-Z'' = 16.50 = AAA

Beneish M -0.33

DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 174.8m/114.3m, Revenue 897.5m/742.9m)
GMI: 1.07 (GM 89.59% / 83.81%)
AQI: 4.83 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.14)
SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 897.5m / 742.9m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 541.4m - CFO 603.2m) / TA 1.86b)
Beneish M = -0.33 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of TPL shares?

As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 367.32 with a total of 279,394 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.40%, over one month by -9.42%, over three months by -0.78% and over the past year by +17.66%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 347.40 (which is 5.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is TPL a buy, sell or hold?

Texas Pacific Land has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TPL.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the TPL price?

Analysts Target Price	442	20.3%

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 25.1b (25.1b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 46.477
P/E Forward = 37.7358
P/S = 28.0021
P/B = 15.2479
P/EG = 7.3295
Revenue TTM = 897.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 678.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 745.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 15.5m already included)
Net Debt = -233.1m USD (calculated: Debt 15.5m - CCE 248.6m)
Enterprise Value = 24.9b USD (25.1b + Debt 15.5m - CCE 248.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 983.1 (Ebit TTM 678.3m / Interest Expense TTM 690k)
EV/FCF = 47.28x (Enterprise Value 24.9b / FCF TTM 526.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.12% (FCF TTM 526.7m / Enterprise Value 24.9b)
FCF Margin = 58.68% (FCF TTM 526.7m / Revenue TTM 897.5m)
Net Margin = 60.32% (Net Income TTM 541.4m / Revenue TTM 897.5m)
Gross Margin = 83.81% ((Revenue TTM 897.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 145.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.54% (prev 82.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.39 (Enterprise Value 24.9b / Total Assets 1.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.45% (Interest Expense 690k / Debt 15.5m)
Taxrate = 20.87% (142.8m / 684.2m)
NOPAT = 536.8m (EBIT 678.3m * (1 - 20.87%))
Current Ratio = 4.55 (Total Current Assets 428.4m / Total Current Liabilities 94.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 15.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.31 (Net Debt -233.1m / EBITDA 745.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.44 (Net Debt -233.1m / FCF TTM 526.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.51b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 33.17% (Net Income 541.4m / Total Assets 1.86b)
RoE = 35.77% (Net Income TTM 541.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.51b)
RoCE = 38.42% (EBIT 678.3m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.86b - Current Liab 94.1m))
RoIC = 31.20% (NOPAT 536.8m / Invested Capital 1.72b)
WACC = 8.41% (E(25.1b)/V(25.1b) * Re(8.41%) + D(15.5m)/V(25.1b) * Rd(4.45%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -66.61 | Cagr: -0.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.79% ; FCFF base≈463.6m ; Y1≈531.5m ; Y5≈782.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 172.3 (EV 11.7b - Net Debt -233.1m = Equity 11.9b / Shares 69.0m; r=8.41% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.86 | EPS CAGR: 30.87% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.84 | Revenue CAGR: 13.37% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=+2.18% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.80 | Chg30d=+1.64% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+26.3% | GrowthRev=+25.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.76 | Chg30d=+0.79% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+12.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)