(TPL) Texas Pacific Land Trust - Ratings and Ratios
Land, Royalties, Water Services, Easements, Materials
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.26% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -1.53% |
| Payout Consistency | 83.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 71.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.26% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.02 |
| Alpha | -65.63 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.369 |
| Beta | 1.320 |
| Beta Downside | 1.717 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.35% |
| Mean DD | 29.84% |
| Median DD | 32.42% |
Description: TPL Texas Pacific Land Trust October 16, 2025
Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL) operates two primary segments: Land & Resource Management, which holds surface land, oil-and-gas royalty interests, and easements in the Permian Basin, and Water Services & Operations, which delivers water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure, and disposal for Permian operators. The company’s land portfolio includes a 1/128th non-participating perpetual royalty interest (NPRI) on ~85 k acres, a 1/16th NPRI on ~371 k acres, and roughly 16 k acres of net royalty acres, totaling about 207 k net royalty acres.
Key quantitative indicators (2023-2024 filings) show TPL generated approximately $1.2 billion of net cash flow, supporting a quarterly dividend that yields roughly 2.5 % and a payout ratio near 70 %. The land base exceeds 880 k acres, and water-services revenue grew about 15 % YoY, reflecting rising demand for produced-water management as Permian output expands.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect TPL’s outlook include (1) Permian Basin production growth, which has averaged ~7 % annually and fuels demand for both royalty acreage and water services; (2) oil-price volatility, where breakeven-adjusted cash flow is highly sensitive to WTI price movements; and (3) regulatory trends on water usage and disposal, which can alter the economics of water-service contracts.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of TPL’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (476.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 46.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.34 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.93pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 85.65% (prev 92.87%; Δ -7.22pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.37 (>3.0%) and CFO 558.8m > Net Income 476.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-515.3m) to EBITDA (643.6m) ratio: -0.80 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 9.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (23.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 87.44% (prev 91.57%; Δ -4.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 57.20% (prev 58.41%; Δ -1.21pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -32.87 (EBITDA TTM 643.6m / Interest Expense TTM -18.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 19.14
| (A) 0.43 = (Total Current Assets 737.2m - Total Current Liabilities 75.6m) / Total Assets 1.52b |
| (B) 0.99 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.51b / Total Assets 1.52b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 0.99 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.44 = EBIT TTM 591.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.35b |
| (D) 9.64 = Book Value of Equity 1.51b / Total Liabilities 156.9m |
| Total Rating: 19.14 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.52
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.32% |
| 3. FCF Margin 66.64% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.80 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 26.13)% |
| 7. RoE 38.14% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 71.66% |
| 9. EPS Trend -80.24% |
What is the price of TPL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.59%, over one month by -5.54%, over three months by -6.09% and over the past year by -45.70%.
Is TPL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the TPL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 635 | -26.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 635 | -26.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 814.3 | -5.8% |
TPL Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 47.7072
P/E Forward = 37.7358
P/S = 26.6696
P/B = 15.0585
Beta = 0.954
Revenue TTM = 772.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 591.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 643.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 16.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.16m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -515.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 22.21b USD (22.73b + Debt 16.5m - CCE 531.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -32.87 (Ebit TTM 591.5m / Interest Expense TTM -18.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.32% (FCF TTM 514.7m / Enterprise Value 22.21b)
FCF Margin = 66.64% (FCF TTM 514.7m / Revenue TTM 772.4m)
Net Margin = 61.68% (Net Income TTM 476.4m / Revenue TTM 772.4m)
Gross Margin = 87.44% ((Revenue TTM 772.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 97.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.54% (prev 88.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 14.57 (Enterprise Value 22.21b / Total Assets 1.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 53.26% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 16.5m)
Taxrate = 21.87% (33.9m / 155.2m)
NOPAT = 462.2m (EBIT 591.5m * (1 - 21.87%))
Current Ratio = 9.75 (Total Current Assets 737.2m / Total Current Liabilities 75.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 16.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -515.3m / EBITDA 643.6m)
Debt / FCF = -1.00 (Net Debt -515.3m / FCF TTM 514.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.25b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 31.24% (Net Income 476.4m / Total Assets 1.52b)
RoE = 38.14% (Net Income TTM 476.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.25b)
RoCE = 46.75% (EBIT 591.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.25b + L.T.Debt 16.5m))
RoIC = 37.01% (NOPAT 462.2m / Invested Capital 1.25b)
WACC = 10.87% (E(22.73b)/V(22.74b) * Re(10.88%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.04% ; FCFE base≈490.7m ; Y1≈530.1m ; Y5≈656.3m
Fair Price DCF = 318.0 (DCF Value 7.31b / Shares Outstanding 23.0m; 5y FCF grow 9.06% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -80.24 | EPS CAGR: -16.17% | SUE: -0.40 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.66 | Revenue CAGR: 8.97% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=5.94 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=21.12 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+7.1% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=25.29 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+19.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for TPL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle