(TREX) Trex - Overview
Stock: Composite Decking, Railing, Fencing, Outdoor Lighting, Drainage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.76 |
| Alpha | -57.99 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.274 |
| Beta Downside | 1.040 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 69.90% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.11 |
Description: TREX Trex January 08, 2026
Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE: TREX) designs, manufactures, and distributes a broad portfolio of composite decking, railing, and related outdoor-living products across the United States. Its core offerings include the Trex Transcend and Signature decking lines, a suite of aluminum and composite railings, and ancillary accessories such as the DeckLighting system and RainEscape drainage solutions. The company also licenses the Trex brand for products ranging from outdoor furniture to specialty saw blades, and sells through wholesale distributors, lumber dealers, and big-box retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.
As of FY 2023, Trex reported revenue of roughly $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 7 percent, and a gross margin near 40 percent, reflecting the premium pricing power of its low-maintenance, recycled-material products. Key economic drivers include the health of residential construction (housing starts grew 4 % YoY in Q4 2023) and consumer spending on home improvement, both of which tend to boost demand for outdoor decking. A sector-wide trend toward sustainable building materials also supports Trex’s positioning, though raw-material cost volatility (e.g., resin and recycled wood fiber prices) remains a material risk.
For a deeper dive into TREX’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, see the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 197.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.71% < 20% (prev 8.60%; Δ -3.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 284.2m > Net Income 197.9m |
| Net Debt (146.9m) to EBITDA (329.4m): 0.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (107.3m) vs 12m ago -0.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.47% > 18% (prev 0.43%; Δ 3904 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 86.83% > 50% (prev 93.08%; Δ -6.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3551 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 329.4m / Interest Expense TTM 76.0k) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 337.8m - Total Current Liabilities 282.2m) / Total Assets 1.45b |
| B: 1.21 (Retained Earnings 1.75b / Total Assets 1.45b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 269.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.36b) |
| D: 4.27 (Book Value of Equity 1.75b / Total Liabilities 410.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 10.00 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.66
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 164.0m/140.1m, Revenue 1.18b/1.18b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 39.47% / 42.52%) |
| AQI: 1.36 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.18b / 1.18b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 197.9m - CFO 284.2m) / TA 1.45b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TREX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.23%, over one month by +17.43%, over three months by +37.84% and over the past year by -39.91%.
Is TREX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TREX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.4 | 0.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 44.4 | 0.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 44.9 | 2% |
TREX Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.1097
P/S = 3.8532
P/B = 4.2717
P/EG = 1.17
Revenue TTM = 1.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 269.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 329.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 42.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 122.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 158.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 146.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.70b USD (4.55b + Debt 158.3m - CCE 11.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3551 (Ebit TTM 269.9m / Interest Expense TTM 76.0k)
EV/FCF = 23.60x (Enterprise Value 4.70b / FCF TTM 199.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.24% (FCF TTM 199.0m / Enterprise Value 4.70b)
FCF Margin = 16.85% (FCF TTM 199.0m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Net Margin = 16.76% (Net Income TTM 197.9m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Gross Margin = 39.47% ((Revenue TTM 1.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 714.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.46% (prev 40.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.23 (Enterprise Value 4.70b / Total Assets 1.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.05% (Interest Expense 76.0k / Debt 158.3m)
Taxrate = 26.46% (18.6m / 70.4m)
NOPAT = 198.5m (EBIT 269.9m * (1 - 26.46%))
Current Ratio = 1.20 (Total Current Assets 337.8m / Total Current Liabilities 282.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 158.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.45 (Net Debt 146.9m / EBITDA 329.4m)
Debt / FCF = 0.74 (Net Debt 146.9m / FCF TTM 199.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 948.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.55% (Net Income 197.9m / Total Assets 1.45b)
RoE = 20.87% (Net Income TTM 197.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 948.0m)
RoCE = 27.26% (EBIT 269.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 948.0m + L.T.Debt 42.0m))
RoIC = 16.56% (NOPAT 198.5m / Invested Capital 1.20b)
WACC = 10.25% (E(4.55b)/V(4.71b) * Re(10.61%) + D(158.3m)/V(4.71b) * Rd(0.05%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.79% ; FCFF base≈139.0m ; Y1≈91.2m ; Y5≈41.6m
Fair Price DCF = 4.11 (EV 588.0m - Net Debt 146.9m = Equity 441.1m / Shares 107.3m; r=10.25% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -10.86 | EPS CAGR: -48.99% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 3.83 | Revenue CAGR: -1.67% | SUE: -2.09 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=18
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.64 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-10.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%