TREX Stock Analysis: Trex | NYSE
Building Products & Equipment | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.858m USD | 12M Return: -29.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.2M
EPS Trend: 21.9%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 47.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE: TREX) is a U.S. manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, headquartered in Winchester, Virginia and founded in 1996. The company sells branded lines such as Trex Transcend, Trex Select, and Trex Enhance, along with railing systems, fencing, outdoor lighting, and accessory products including drainage systems, flashing tape, pergolas, lattice boards, and spiral stairs.
In addition to manufacturing its own products, Trex acts as a licensor, allowing third parties to produce and sell goods under the Trex name. The company distributes its products through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and major home improvement retailers including The Home Depot and Lowes, with distribution concentrated in the residential repair-and-remodel and new-home construction end markets.
- Housing starts and remodeling demand drive decking volume
- Home Depot and Lowes retail channel concentration risk
- Recycled material costs pressure composite decking margins
| Net Income: 191.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 20.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.16% < 20% (prev -0.84%; Δ 2.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 393.7m > Net Income 191.4m |
| Net Debt (483.4m) to EBITDA (327.0m): 1.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.1m) vs 12m ago -2.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.17% > 18% (prev 40.60%; Δ -1.43% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.87% > 50% (prev 68.11%; Δ 1.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 580.0m - Total Current Liabilities 566.4m) / Total Assets 1.73b |
| B: 1.07 (Retained Earnings 1.85b / Total Assets 1.73b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 259.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.69b) |
| D: 1.36 (Book Value of Equity 995.8m / Total Liabilities 734.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.00 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.79 (Receivables 326.9m/391.1m, Revenue 1.18b/1.12b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 40.60% / 39.17%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 1.18b / 1.12b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 191.4m - CFO 393.7m) / TA 1.73b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.17 with a total of 4,552,478 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.24%, over one month by -4.74%, over three months by +6.98% and over the past year by -29.52%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 41.80 (which is 5.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Trex has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TREX.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 48.5 | 9.8% |
P/E Trailing = 25.413
P/E Forward = 26.178
P/S = 4.1253
P/B = 4.7819
P/EG = 0.9989
Revenue TTM = 1.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 259.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 327.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 40.1m USD (estimated: total debt 435.2m - short term 395.1m)
Short Term Debt = 395.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 487.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 52.7m
Net Debt = 483.4m USD (calculated: Debt 487.9m - CCE 4.49m)
Enterprise Value = 5.34b USD (4.86b + Debt 487.9m - CCE 4.49m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 259.9m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 22.31x (Enterprise Value 5.34b / FCF TTM 239.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.48% (FCF TTM 239.4m / Enterprise Value 5.34b)
FCF Margin = 20.33% (FCF TTM 239.4m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Net Margin = 16.25% (Net Income TTM 191.4m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Gross Margin = 39.17% ((Revenue TTM 1.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 716.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.48% (prev 30.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.09 (Enterprise Value 5.34b / Total Assets 1.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 487.9m)
Taxrate = 26.36% (68.5m / 259.9m)
NOPAT = 191.4m (EBIT 259.9m * (1 - 26.36%))
Current Ratio = 1.02 (Total Current Assets 580.0m / Total Current Liabilities 566.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 487.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 995.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.48 (Net Debt 483.4m / EBITDA 327.0m)
Debt / FCF = 2.02 (Net Debt 483.4m / FCF TTM 239.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.02b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.35% (Net Income 191.4m / Total Assets 1.73b)
RoE = 18.85% (Net Income TTM 191.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.02b)
RoCE = 24.62% (EBIT 259.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.02b + L.T.Debt 40.1m))
RoIC = 12.32% (NOPAT 191.4m / Invested Capital 1.55b)
WACC = 11.55% (E(4.86b)/V(5.35b) * Re(12.71%) + D(487.9m)/V(5.35b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 12.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.58 | Cagr: -1.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.09% ; FCFF base≈239.4m ; Y1≈240.4m ; Y5≈254.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.04 (EV 2.57b - Net Debt 483.4m = Equity 2.08b / Shares 103.9m; r=11.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 21.90 | EPS CAGR: 3.82% | SUE: 1.61 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 47.84 | Revenue CAGR: 3.52% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=-0.35% | Revisions=-24% | Analysts=19
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=-61% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=-10.8% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+10.6% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +9% (up=34, down=28)