TRTX Stock Analysis: TPG RE Finance Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 483m USD | 12M Return: -16.3% | US87266M1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.53M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: -83.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is a New York-incorporated commercial real estate finance company, established in 2014 and publicly listed since its July 2017 IPO. The company operates as a small-cap Mortgage REIT within the Financials sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $487 million USD. Its core business model involves originating and acquiring commercial real estate-related assets across the United States, primarily through first mortgage loans secured by commercial properties. TRTX also selectively invests in a broader range of CRE debt instruments, including subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, and preferred equity positions.
As a REIT under U.S. federal tax law, TRTX is generally exempt from corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. The company was founded by TPG, a global alternative asset management firm. Mortgage REITs like TRTX typically focus on generating returns from loan interest income and capital gains on loan portfolio transactions, rather than property-level operations.
- Net interest margin compresses as CRE loan yields reprice lower
- Office property loan defaults increase provisions and non-accruals
- CLO issuance expands capacity to fund new commercial mortgage originations
| Net Income: 41.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -42.34% < 20% (prev 60.14%; Δ -102.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 90.4m > Net Income 41.9m |
| Net Debt (3.22b) to EBITDA (264.5m): 12.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (76.5m) vs 12m ago -2.95% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.87% > 18% (prev 78.00%; Δ -4.13% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.66% > 50% (prev 8.03%; Δ -2.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.22 > 6 (EBIT TTM 251.8m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 104.2m - Total Current Liabilities 215.8m) / Total Assets 5.24b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -721.9m / Total Assets 5.24b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 251.8m / Avg Total Assets 4.65b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 1.02b / Total Liabilities 4.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.03 = B |
| DSRI: 0.40 (Receivables 33.4m/104.6m, Revenue 263.4m/326.6m) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 78.00% / 73.87%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.94 / AQ_t-1 0.90) |
| SGI: 0.81 (Revenue 263.4m / 326.6m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 41.9m - CFO 90.4m) / TA 5.24b) |
| Beneish M = -3.58 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.42 with a total of 1,567,739 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.22%, over one month by +1.26%, over three months by -18.83% and over the past year by -16.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.10 (which is 5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
TPG RE Finance Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TRTX.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 9.5 | 48.6% |
P/E Trailing = 16.3333
P/E Forward = 11.1111
P/S = 4.0537
P/B = 0.4594
Revenue TTM = 263.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 251.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 264.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 660.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 3.22b USD (calculated: Debt 3.29b - CCE 70.8m)
Enterprise Value = 3.70b USD (483.0m + Debt 3.29b - CCE 70.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.22 (Ebit TTM 251.8m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m)
EV/FCF = 43.95x (Enterprise Value 3.70b / FCF TTM 84.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.28% (FCF TTM 84.2m / Enterprise Value 3.70b)
FCF Margin = 31.97% (FCF TTM 84.2m / Revenue TTM 263.4m)
Net Margin = 15.89% (Net Income TTM 41.9m / Revenue TTM 263.4m)
Gross Margin = 73.87% ((Revenue TTM 263.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 68.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 84.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 3.70b / Total Assets 5.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.26% (Interest Expense 206.0m / Debt 3.29b)
Taxrate = 0.42% (194k / 45.8m)
NOPAT = 250.7m (EBIT 251.8m * (1 - 0.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 104.2m / Total Current Liabilities 215.8m)
Debt / Equity = 3.21 (Debt 3.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.02b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.17 (Net Debt 3.22b / EBITDA 264.5m)
Debt / FCF = 38.21 (Net Debt 3.22b / FCF TTM 84.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.90% (Net Income 41.9m / Total Assets 5.24b)
RoE = 3.99% (Net Income TTM 41.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 5.80% (EBIT 251.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 3.29b))
RoIC = 4.26% (NOPAT 250.7m / Invested Capital 5.89b)
WACC = 6.38% (E(483.0m)/V(3.77b) * Re(7.34%) + D(3.29b)/V(3.77b) * Rd(6.26%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.29 | Cagr: -2.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.05% ; FCFF base≈85.2m ; Y1≈83.5m ; Y5≈84.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.32b - Net Debt 3.22b = -1.90b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -3.06 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -83.65 | Revenue CAGR: -9.28% | SUE: -0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+2.6% | GrowthRev=-0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.11 | Chg30d=+0.73% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+11.6% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)