TRTX Stock Analysis: TPG RE Finance Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 651m USD | 12M Return: 20.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.90M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -89.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is a commercial real estate finance company that originates and acquires commercial real estate-related assets in the United States. Its primary activity is directly originating first mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate properties, while it also selectively invests in other debt instruments, including subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, and preferred equity.
The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which subjects it to federal income tax rules requiring the distribution of at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in order to avoid federal corporate income tax. As a mortgage REIT, TRTX generates revenue primarily through interest income on its loan portfolio rather than rental income from owned properties. Incorporated in 2014 and headquartered in New York, the company has been listed on the NYSE since 2017.
- Office loan credit losses pressure book value and earnings
- Net interest margin compresses on rising funding costs
- Dividend sustainability questioned amid CRE market stress
| Net Income: 65.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -146.0% < 20% (prev 1.08k%; Δ -1.23k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 95.8m > Net Income 65.5m |
| Net Debt (3.27b) to EBITDA (272.7m): 12.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (79.1m) vs 12m ago -3.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 80.51% > 18% (prev 79.40%; Δ 1.11% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.03% > 50% (prev 8.48%; Δ -0.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 260.9m / Interest Expense TTM 194.9m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 165.8m - Total Current Liabilities 660.3m) / Total Assets 4.47b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -680.6m / Total Assets 4.47b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 260.9m / Avg Total Assets 4.22b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 1.06b / Total Liabilities 3.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.48 = B |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 73.4m/3.21b, Revenue 338.7m/335.8m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 79.40% / 80.51%) |
| AQI: 93.93 (AQ_t 0.91 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 338.7m / 335.8m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 65.5m - CFO 95.8m) / TA 4.47b) |
| Beneish M = 51.33 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.47 with a total of 732,283 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.69%, over one month by +4.00%, over three months by +12.16% and over the past year by +20.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.10 (which is 4.4% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
TPG RE Finance Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TRTX.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10 | 18.1% |
P/E Trailing = 13.1641
P/E Forward = 11.1111
P/S = 4.781
P/B = 0.6209
Revenue TTM = 338.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 260.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 272.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.36b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 660.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.27b USD (calculated: Debt 3.36b - CCE 92.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.92b USD (651.3m + Debt 3.36b - CCE 92.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.34 (Ebit TTM 260.9m / Interest Expense TTM 194.9m)
EV/FCF = 44.54x (Enterprise Value 3.92b / FCF TTM 88.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.25% (FCF TTM 88.1m / Enterprise Value 3.92b)
FCF Margin = 26.01% (FCF TTM 88.1m / Revenue TTM 338.7m)
Net Margin = 19.35% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Revenue TTM 338.7m)
Gross Margin = 80.51% ((Revenue TTM 338.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 66.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 80.55% (prev 85.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 3.92b / Total Assets 4.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.79% (Interest Expense 194.9m / Debt 3.36b)
Taxrate = 0.66% (434k / 66.0m)
NOPAT = 259.1m (EBIT 260.9m * (1 - 0.66%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 165.8m / Total Current Liabilities 660.3m)
Debt / Equity = 3.17 (Debt 3.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.00 (Net Debt 3.27b / EBITDA 272.7m)
Debt / FCF = 37.14 (Net Debt 3.27b / FCF TTM 88.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.55% (Net Income 65.5m / Total Assets 4.47b)
RoE = 6.09% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.08b)
RoCE = 5.88% (EBIT 260.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.08b + L.T.Debt 3.36b))
RoIC = 5.10% (NOPAT 259.1m / Invested Capital 5.08b)
WACC = 6.15% (E(651.3m)/V(4.01b) * Re(8.19%) + D(3.36b)/V(4.01b) * Rd(5.79%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 6.67 | Cagr: 0.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.23% ; FCFF base≈88.6m ; Y1≈87.8m ; Y5≈90.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.41b - Net Debt 3.27b = -1.86b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -89.94 | Revenue CAGR: -7.07% | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=-0.76% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=+1.25% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+9.2% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%