TRTX Stock Analysis: TPG RE Finance Trust | NYSE

REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 630m USD | 12M Return: 2.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Mortgages, Mezzanine Loans, Real Estate Securities, Preferred Equity
Total Rating 22
Safety 18
Buy Signal -1.34
REIT - Mortgage
Industry Rotation: -6.9
Market Cap: 630M
Avg Turnover: 5.56M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility24.5%
VaR 5th Pctl4.38%
VaR vs Median8.45%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Rel. Str. IBD22.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group37.5
Character TTM
Beta0.596
Beta Downside0.640
Hurst Exponent0.486
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD29.28%
CAGR/Max DD0.58
CAGR/Mean DD2.31
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TRTX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.27, "2021-09": 0.33, "2021-12": 0.23, "2022-03": 0.33, "2022-06": 0.27, "2022-09": 0.19, "2022-12": 0.3, "2023-03": 0.17, "2023-06": -0.18, "2023-09": -1.33, "2023-12": -2.05, "2024-03": 0.3, "2024-06": 0.28, "2024-09": 0.28, "2024-12": 0.1, "2025-03": 0.24, "2025-06": 0.24, "2025-09": 0.25, "2025-12": 0.24, "2026-03": 0.25, "2026-06": 0.17,
Last SUE: -0.98
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of TRTX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 62.072, 2021-09: 60.081, 2021-12: 60.323, 2022-03: 61.035, 2022-06: 66.65, 2022-09: 76.859, 2022-12: 101.165, 2023-03: 95.245, 2023-06: 103.184, 2023-09: 97.463, 2023-12: 94.262, 2024-03: 93.989, 2024-06: 89.65, 2024-09: 88.479, 2024-12: 78.814, 2025-03: 78.898, 2025-06: 82.226, 2025-09: 86.659, 2025-12: 84.018, 2026-03: 85.77, 2026-06: 10.342,
Rev. CAGR: -10.37%
Rev. Trend: -89.6%
Last SUE: -0.20
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.9 years of data

Jan -0.8% 2
Feb +0.0% 0
Mar -2.1% 31
Apr +1.2% 12
May -1.8% 44
Jun +1.5% 17
Jul +1.5% 15
Aug -0.3% 14
Sep -4.3% 52
Oct -0.0% 0
Nov -0.2% 0
Dec +0.0% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is a commercial real estate finance company that originates and acquires commercial real estate-related assets in the United States. Its primary activity is directly originating first mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate properties, while it also selectively invests in other debt instruments, including subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, and preferred equity.

The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which subjects it to federal income tax rules requiring the distribution of at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in order to avoid federal corporate income tax. As a mortgage REIT, TRTX generates revenue primarily through interest income on its loan portfolio rather than rental income from owned properties. Incorporated in 2014 and headquartered in New York, the company has been listed on the NYSE since 2017.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Office loan credit losses pressure book value and earnings
  • Net interest margin compresses on rising funding costs
  • Dividend sustainability questioned amid CRE market stress
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 58.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.34 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 23.62% < 20% (prev 1.18k%; Δ -1.15k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 92.6m > Net Income 58.0m
Net Debt (3.38b) to EBITDA (268.1m): 12.62 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.99 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (78.0m) vs 12m ago -2.72% < -2%
Gross Margin: 74.20% > 18% (prev 78.22%; Δ -4.02% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.09% > 50% (prev 7.89%; Δ -1.80% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 257.6m / Interest Expense TTM 199.1m)
Altman Z'' 0.30
A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 94.7m - Total Current Liabilities 31.7m) / Total Assets 4.60b
B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -700.3m / Total Assets 4.60b)
C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 257.6m / Avg Total Assets 4.38b)
D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 3.55b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.30 = B
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 29.1m/3.71b, Revenue 266.8m/328.4m)
GMI: 1.05 (GM 78.22% / 74.20%)
AQI: 120.3 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.01)
SGI: 0.81 (Revenue 266.8m / 328.4m)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 58.0m - CFO 92.6m) / TA 4.60b)
Beneish M = 66.90 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of TRTX shares?

As of August 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.97 with a total of 976,849 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.54%, over one month by -4.78%, over three months by -3.06% and over the past year by +2.57%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.60 (which is 4.6% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is TRTX a buy, sell or hold?

TPG RE Finance Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TRTX.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TRTX price?
Analysts Target Price 10.1 26.5%
TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 31 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 630.3m (630.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.9273
P/E Forward = 11.1111
P/S = 4.7656
P/B = 0.6216
Revenue TTM = 266.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 257.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 268.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 660.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.45b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.38b USD (calculated: Debt 3.45b - CCE 65.6m)
Enterprise Value = 4.01b USD (630.3m + Debt 3.45b - CCE 65.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.29 (Ebit TTM 257.6m / Interest Expense TTM 199.1m)
EV/FCF = 48.42x (Enterprise Value 4.01b / FCF TTM 82.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.07% (FCF TTM 82.9m / Enterprise Value 4.01b)
FCF Margin = 31.07% (FCF TTM 82.9m / Revenue TTM 266.8m)
Net Margin = 21.76% (Net Income TTM 58.0m / Revenue TTM 266.8m)
Gross Margin = 74.20% ((Revenue TTM 266.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 68.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 80.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 4.01b / Total Assets 4.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.77% (Interest Expense 199.1m / Debt 3.45b)
Taxrate = 0.70% (407k / 58.4m)
NOPAT = 255.8m (EBIT 257.6m * (1 - 0.70%))
Current Ratio = 2.99 (Total Current Assets 94.7m / Total Current Liabilities 31.7m)
Debt / Equity = 3.30 (Debt 3.45b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.62 (Net Debt 3.38b / EBITDA 268.1m)
Debt / FCF = 40.82 (Net Debt 3.38b / FCF TTM 82.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.33% (Net Income 58.0m / Total Assets 4.60b)
RoE = 5.45% (Net Income TTM 58.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 5.92% (EBIT 257.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.06b + L.T.Debt 3.29b))
RoIC = 4.88% (NOPAT 255.8m / Invested Capital 5.24b)
WACC = 6.10% (E(630.3m)/V(4.08b) * Re(8.08%) + D(3.45b)/V(4.08b) * Rd(5.77%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.15 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.40% ; FCFF base≈85.5m ; Y1≈80.6m ; Y5≈75.4m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.19b - Net Debt 3.38b = -2.19b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.98 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -89.55 | Revenue CAGR: -10.37% | SUE: -0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=+0.48% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+7.7% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=+0.79% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+9.6% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)