(TUYA) Tuya - Overview
Stock: Cloud Platform, AI Engine, IoT Ecosystem, Developer Framework, Smart
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.60% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.50% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 94.92% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 127.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.38 |
| Alpha | -37.34 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.408 |
| Beta Downside | 1.851 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 52.73% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.07 |
Description: TUYA Tuya January 16, 2026
Tuya Inc. (NYSE:TUYA) operates an AI-cloud platform that enables developers to embed artificial-intelligence and IoT functionality into smart products, primarily serving customers in mainland China through its open-source TuyaOpen framework and AI Agent engines.
The company cultivates an AIoT ecosystem that brings together brands, OEMs, system integrators and independent software vendors, offering a “plug-and-play” development environment that promises lower time-to-market, security-by-design, and scalability across consumer and commercial verticals.
Recent disclosed metrics (2023 annual report and Q1-2024 earnings) show revenue growth of roughly 45 % YoY to ¥6.2 bn, a double-digit increase in active AI-enabled devices (≈ 120 million), and a gross margin expansion to 58 % driven by higher-margin cloud services; however, the company’s profitability remains modest, with net loss of ¥0.9 bn, reflecting heavy R&D and sales spend.
Key macro drivers for Tuya include the global AIoT market, projected by IDC to reach $1.1 trillion by 2026 (CAGR ~13 %), and China’s “New Infrastructure” policy that subsidizes smart city and industrial automation projects; conversely, regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and cross-border cloud services adds a material uncertainty to growth forecasts.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Tuya’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 48.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 280.2% < 20% (prev 267.9%; Δ 12.22% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 87.8m > Net Income 48.4m |
| Net Debt (-841.8m) to EBITDA (11.7m): -71.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 8.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (614.1m) vs 12m ago 7.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.23% > 18% (prev 0.47%; Δ 4776 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.49% > 50% (prev 25.18%; Δ 3.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.13 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 11.7m / Interest Expense TTM -58.1m) |
Altman Z'' -0.89
| A: 0.79 (Total Current Assets 1.02b - Total Current Liabilities 125.6m) / Total Assets 1.13b |
| B: -0.47 (Retained Earnings -531.3m / Total Assets 1.13b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -7.59m / Avg Total Assets 1.12b) |
| D: -4.30 (Book Value of Equity -548.8m / Total Liabilities 127.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.89 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.27
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 22.0m/17.7m, Revenue 319.5m/281.0m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 48.23% / 47.21%) |
| AQI: 0.39 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 319.5m / 281.0m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 48.4m - CFO 87.8m) / TA 1.13b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of TUYA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.35%, over one month by -4.00%, over three months by -1.82% and over the past year by -34.07%.
Is TUYA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TUYA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 3.3 | 54.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 3.3 | 54.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2.3 | 5.1% |
TUYA Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 4.1921
P/B = 1.2765
Revenue TTM = 319.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -7.59m USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.45m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.82m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.45m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -841.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 384.6m USD (1.34b + Debt 3.45m - CCE 957.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.13 (Ebit TTM -7.59m / Interest Expense TTM -58.1m)
EV/FCF = 4.39x (Enterprise Value 384.6m / FCF TTM 87.7m)
FCF Yield = 22.80% (FCF TTM 87.7m / Enterprise Value 384.6m)
FCF Margin = 27.45% (FCF TTM 87.7m / Revenue TTM 319.5m)
Net Margin = 15.15% (Net Income TTM 48.4m / Revenue TTM 319.5m)
Gross Margin = 48.23% ((Revenue TTM 319.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 165.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.25% (prev 48.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 384.6m / Total Assets 1.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 217.8% (Interest Expense 7.52m / Debt 3.45m)
Taxrate = 1.71% (261.0k / 15.2m)
NOPAT = -7.46m (EBIT -7.59m * (1 - 1.71%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 8.13 (Total Current Assets 1.02b / Total Current Liabilities 125.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 3.45m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 999.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -71.92 (Net Debt -841.8m / EBITDA 11.7m)
Debt / FCF = -9.60 (Net Debt -841.8m / FCF TTM 87.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.32% (Net Income 48.4m / Total Assets 1.13b)
RoE = 4.83% (Net Income TTM 48.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.00b)
RoCE = -0.76% (EBIT -7.59m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.00b + L.T.Debt 3.45m))
RoIC = -0.74% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -7.46m / Invested Capital 1.00b)
WACC = 11.07% (E(1.34b)/V(1.34b) * Re(11.10%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 11.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.99%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 57.79% ; FCFF base≈84.8m ; Y1≈55.7m ; Y5≈25.4m
Fair Price DCF = 2.16 (EV 327.4m - Net Debt -841.8m = Equity 1.17b / Shares 540.2m; r=11.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 77.41 | EPS CAGR: 134.2% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.64 | Revenue CAGR: 2.62% | SUE: 0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+0.0% | Growth Revenue=+13.5%