TWLO Stock Analysis: Twilio | NYSE

Messaging, Voice Communications, Email, Authentication

Total Rating 70

Safety 86

Buy Signal 1.68

Software - Infrastructure
Industry Rotation: +0.6

Market Cap: 42.4B
Avg Turnover: 608M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility55.4%

VaR 5^th Pctl8.65%

VaR vs Median-4.01%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.87

Rel. Str. IBD98.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group77.5

Character TTM

Beta1.608

Beta Downside1.251

Hurst Exponent0.474

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD45.17%

CAGR/Max DD1.64

CAGR/Mean DD4.66

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 17.67%
EPS Trend: 65.1%

Last SUE: 1.63
Qual. Beats: 6

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 11.67%
Rev. Trend: 97.8%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 6

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Confidence

Seasonality 10.3 years of data

Jan +9.9% 6

Feb -0.8% 18

Mar -0.1% 5

Apr -0.4% 8

May +17.0% 26

Jun +1.3% 14

Jul -0.4% 0

Aug -3.9% 15

Sep -7.7% 23

Oct +3.6% 9

Nov +2.5% 19

Dec -3.3% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TWLO Twilio

Twilio Inc. (NYSE: TWLO) is a U.S.-based provider of cloud communications and customer engagement platform solutions, operating domestically and internationally. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in San Francisco, the company went public in 2016 and is classified within the Information Technology sector under Internet Services & Infrastructure.

Twilios core offering is a developer-focused Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS), delivering application programming interfaces (APIs) and software tools that enable businesses to embed messaging, voice, email, video, contact center, marketing, and user authentication capabilities directly into their own applications. The company also operates Segment, a customer data platform that unifies real-time behavioral information into individual user profiles, supporting personalized engagement at scale.

Twilios business model is built on a usage-based, subscription-supported pricing structure, where revenue is largely generated per API call, message, or minute consumed by enterprise and developer customers. As a large-cap stock in the cloud services and communications infrastructure space, Twilio competes alongside other cloud-based communication and customer engagement vendors serving digital-native and enterprise clients.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Communications API revenue growth slows as customers optimize spend
Segment CDP adoption expands enterprise customer engagement platform revenue
Operating margin expansion accelerates on cost optimization and headcount reductions

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5

Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.88 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 52.68% < 20% (prev 59.45%; Δ -6.77% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 1.10b > Net Income 1.15b
Net Debt (-1.52b) to EBITDA (366.6m): -4.14 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.62 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (159.7m) vs 12m ago 0.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 48.54% > 18% (prev 49.96%; Δ -1.42% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 53.87% > 50% (prev 48.02%; Δ 5.85% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)

Altman Z'' 4.70

A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 3.75b - Total Current Liabilities 810.7m) / Total Assets 10.8b
B: -0.69 (Retained Earnings -7.51b / Total Assets 10.8b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 172.7m / Avg Total Assets 10.3b)
D: 4.82 (Book Value of Equity 8.98b / Total Liabilities 1.86b)
Altman-Z'' = 4.70 = AA

Beneish M -2.77

DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 760.1m/588.0m, Revenue 5.57b/4.73b)
GMI: 1.03 (GM 49.96% / 48.54%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.62)
SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 5.57b / 4.73b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.10b) / TA 10.8b)
Beneish M = -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of TWLO shares?

As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 294.58 with a total of 3,671,949 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.81%, over one month by +29.91%, over three months by +40.74% and over the past year by +179.43%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 277.60 (which is 5.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is TWLO a buy, sell or hold?

Twilio has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.94. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TWLO.

StrongBuy: 11
Buy: 9
Hold: 9
Sell: 2
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TWLO price?

Analysts Target Price	263	-10.7%

Twilio (TWLO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 29 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 42.4b (42.4b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 38.0414
P/E Forward = 43.6681
P/S = 7.6011
P/B = 4.9727
P/EG = 0.4502
Revenue TTM = 5.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 172.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 366.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 993.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 29.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 72.4m
Net Debt = -1.52b USD (calculated: Debt 1.14b - CCE 2.66b)
Enterprise Value = 40.8b USD (42.4b + Debt 1.14b - CCE 2.66b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 172.7m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 36.81x (Enterprise Value 40.8b / FCF TTM 1.11b)
FCF Yield = 2.72% (FCF TTM 1.11b / Enterprise Value 40.8b)
FCF Margin = 19.91% (FCF TTM 1.11b / Revenue TTM 5.57b)
Net Margin = 20.62% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 5.57b)
Gross Margin = 48.54% ((Revenue TTM 5.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.87b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.42% (prev 48.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.77 (Enterprise Value 40.8b / Total Assets 10.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.14b)
Taxrate = 38.59% (21.3m / 55.1m)
NOPAT = 106.0m (EBIT 172.7m * (1 - 38.59%))
Current Ratio = 4.62 (Total Current Assets 3.75b / Total Current Liabilities 810.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 1.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.14 (Net Debt -1.52b / EBITDA 366.6m)
Debt / FCF = -1.37 (Net Debt -1.52b / FCF TTM 1.11b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.11% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 10.8b)
RoE = 14.15% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.12b)
RoCE = 1.89% (EBIT 172.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 8.12b + L.T.Debt 993.2m))
RoIC = 1.08% (NOPAT 106.0m / Invested Capital 9.78b)
WACC = 11.34% (E(42.4b)/V(43.5b) * Re(11.64%) + D(1.14b)/V(43.5b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 11.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -76.69 | Cagr: -5.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.94% ; FCFF base≈955.5m ; Y1≈1.10b ; Y5≈1.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 113.1 (EV 15.9b - Net Debt -1.52b = Equity 17.4b / Shares 153.6m; r=11.34% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 65.10 | EPS CAGR: 17.67% | SUE: 1.63 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: 97.78 | Revenue CAGR: 11.67% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 6
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.47 | Chg30d=-0.14% | Revisions=+71% | Analysts=26
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.93 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=+83% | GrowthEPS=+21.2% | GrowthRev=+18.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.79 | Chg30d=+0.25% | Revisions=+71% | GrowthEPS=+14.5% | GrowthRev=+11.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81% (up=70, down=6)