TX Stock Analysis: Ternium | NYSE

Steel | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.196m USD | 12M Return: 42% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Steel, Iron Ore, Steel Tubes, Pellets
Total Rating 46
Safety 75
Buy Signal -0.31
Steel
Industry Rotation: -24.8
Market Cap: 8.20B
Avg Turnover: 19.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility28.5%
VaR 5th Pctl4.96%
VaR vs Median5.52%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.16
Rel. Str. IBD70.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group48.2
Character TTM
Beta0.788
Beta Downside0.746
Hurst Exponent0.483
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD42.04%
CAGR/Max DD0.18
CAGR/Mean DD0.54
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 5.21, "2021-09": 6.12, "2021-12": 5.08, "2022-03": 3.95, "2022-06": 4.07, "2022-09": 0.78, "2022-12": 0.2, "2023-03": 1.91, "2023-06": 3.19, "2023-09": 1.38, "2023-12": 2.11, "2024-03": 1.84, "2024-06": 0.28, "2024-09": 0.16, "2024-12": -0.42, "2025-03": 0.55, "2025-06": 1.1, "2025-09": 0.1, "2025-12": 0.62, "2026-03": 0.66,
EPS CAGR: -49.63%
EPS Trend: -71.7%
Last SUE: -0.36
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 3919.764, 2021-09: 4592.007, 2021-12: 4329.677, 2022-03: 4304.829, 2022-06: 4437.676, 2022-09: 4125.478, 2022-12: 3546.483, 2023-03: 3623.371, 2023-06: 3871.272, 2023-09: 5184.71, 2023-12: 4930.739, 2024-03: 4778.297, 2024-06: 4514.152, 2024-09: 4480.356, 2024-12: 3876.255, 2025-03: 3932.808, 2025-06: 3946.939, 2025-09: 3954.562, 2025-12: 3743.008827, 2026-03: 3933.963,
Rev. CAGR: -2.87%
Rev. Trend: -31.3%
Last SUE: -0.16
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.4% 13
Feb -0.3% 13
Mar -1.5% 23
Apr -1.2% 14
May +4.4% 32
Jun -2.4% 24
Jul +3.3% 25
Aug -2.0% 19
Sep +2.1% 6
Oct +2.1% 22
Nov +1.3% 8
Dec -0.0% 8

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TX Ternium

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) is a Luxembourg-based steel manufacturer with operations primarily across Mexico, the broader Southern Region, Brazil, and other international markets. The company operates through two core segments: Steel, which produces a wide range of products including slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled steel, coated products, automotive stamped parts, and tubular goods; and Mining, which focuses on iron ore extraction and pellet production. Ternium also provides related services in medical/social, scrap, and engineering fields, and is controlled by Techint Holdings S.à r.l. as its parent company.

As a vertically integrated steel producer, Ternium benefits from its in-house iron ore mining and pelletizing operations, which helps insulate it from raw material price volatility-a structural advantage common to large integrated mills in the Materials sector. The automotive industry is a particularly important end market for the company, given its production of stamped steel parts and roll-formed products that supply vehicle manufacturers throughout Latin America.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • HRC steel price declines pressure consolidated margins
  • Mexican automotive and construction demand drives Steel segment volumes
  • Iron ore pricing recovery supports Mining segment profitability
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 570.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.00 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 39.51% < 20% (prev 43.88%; Δ -4.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 2.32b > Net Income 570.2m
Net Debt (64.2m) to EBITDA (1.62b): 0.04 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.63 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (196.3m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: 15.69% > 18% (prev 13.78%; Δ 1.91% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 64.97% > 50% (prev 70.85%; Δ -5.89% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.98 > 6 (EBIT TTM 835.5m / Interest Expense TTM 209.8m)
Altman Z'' 5.35
A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 9.93b - Total Current Liabilities 3.77b) / Total Assets 24.2b
B: 0.55 (Retained Earnings 13.4b / Total Assets 24.2b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 835.5m / Avg Total Assets 24.0b)
D: 1.58 (Book Value of Equity 12.2b / Total Liabilities 7.74b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.35 = AAA
Beneish M -3.22
DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 2.59b/2.69b, Revenue 15.6b/16.8b)
GMI: 0.88 (GM 13.78% / 15.69%)
AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16)
SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 15.6b / 16.8b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 570.2m - CFO 2.32b) / TA 24.2b)
Beneish M = -3.22 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of TX shares?

As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 43.42 with a total of 473,236 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.50%, over one month by -9.56%, over three months by +8.38% and over the past year by +42.03%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.50 (which is 6.7% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is TX a buy, sell or hold?

Ternium has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.62. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TX.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TX price?
Analysts Target Price 53.1 22.3%
Ternium (TX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 8.20b (8.20b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.9167
P/E Forward = 9.1743
P/S = 0.525
P/B = 0.6687
P/EG = 0.1283
Revenue TTM = 15.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 835.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.62b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.20b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 665.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 195.8m
Net Debt = 64.2m USD (calculated: Debt 3.21b - CCE 3.14b)
Enterprise Value = 8.26b USD (8.20b + Debt 3.21b - CCE 3.14b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.98 (Ebit TTM 835.5m / Interest Expense TTM 209.8m)
EV/FCF = -127.6x (Enterprise Value 8.26b / FCF TTM -64.7m)
FCF Yield = -0.78% (FCF TTM -64.7m / Enterprise Value 8.26b)
FCF Margin = -0.42% (FCF TTM -64.7m / Revenue TTM 15.6b)
Net Margin = 3.66% (Net Income TTM 570.2m / Revenue TTM 15.6b)
Gross Margin = 15.69% ((Revenue TTM 15.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.46% (prev 14.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 8.26b / Total Assets 24.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.54% (Interest Expense 209.8m / Debt 3.21b)
Taxrate = 30.16% (229.6m / 761.3m)
NOPAT = 583.5m (EBIT 835.5m * (1 - 30.16%))
Current Ratio = 2.63 (Total Current Assets 9.93b / Total Current Liabilities 3.77b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 3.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.04 (Net Debt 64.2m / EBITDA 1.62b)
 Debt / FCF = -0.99 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 64.2m / FCF TTM -64.7m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 12.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.38% (Net Income 570.2m / Total Assets 24.2b)
RoE = 4.74% (Net Income TTM 570.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 12.0b)
RoCE = 5.87% (EBIT 835.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 12.0b + L.T.Debt 2.20b))
RoIC = 2.87% (NOPAT 583.5m / Invested Capital 20.4b)
WACC = 7.58% (E(8.20b)/V(11.4b) * Re(8.76%) + D(3.21b)/V(11.4b) * Rd(6.54%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 8.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -64.7m)
 EPS Correlation: -71.65 | EPS CAGR: -49.63% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -31.31 | Revenue CAGR: -2.87% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+28.27% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=+35.70% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.81 | Chg30d=+32.29% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+36.9% | GrowthRev=+10.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.68 | Chg30d=+19.63% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+18.1% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=9, down=2)