UGI Stock Analysis: UGI | NYSE
Utilities - Regulated Gas | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.773m USD | 12M Return: 19.5% | US9026811052 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 70.5M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -67.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
UGI Corporation is a diversified energy holding company that operates across the natural gas and propane value chains through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. Its regulated Utilities business distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania across a network of about 12,700 miles of gas mains and supplies electricity to roughly 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania. The AmeriGas segment is one of the largest retail propane distributors in the United States, handling approximately 801 million gallons annually across residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and wholesale customers, while UGI International extends LPG distribution and midstream activities to European markets.
Beyond distribution, the company operates midstream infrastructure including natural gas pipelines, gathering systems, storage facilities, liquefaction and vaporization assets, and rail transshipment terminals, providing logistics and storage services to third-party LPG distributors. As a gas utility operator, UGIs core distribution business is generally subject to state-level rate regulation, which provides predictable, cost-of-service based returns, while its propane and midstream businesses operate on more market-driven terms and tend to be more sensitive to commodity price volatility and weather-driven demand patterns.
- AmeriGas propane margins pressured by warm winters and competition
- Pennsylvania rate case outcomes drive gas utility earnings
- European energy crisis impacts UGI International LPG margins
| Net Income: 671.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.51% < 20% (prev -10.27%; Δ 19.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.06b > Net Income 671.0m |
| Net Debt (6.24b) to EBITDA (1.54b): 4.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (214.7m) vs 12m ago -0.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.72% > 18% (prev 49.28%; Δ -2.55% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.08% > 50% (prev 47.73%; Δ -0.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 978.0m / Interest Expense TTM 437.0m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 2.27b - Total Current Liabilities 1.58b) / Total Assets 15.6b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 3.78b / Total Assets 15.6b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 978.0m / Avg Total Assets 15.5b) |
| D: 0.50 (Book Value of Equity 5.21b / Total Liabilities 10.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.03 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 837.0m/908.0m, Revenue 7.30b/7.33b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 49.28% / 46.72%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 7.30b / 7.33b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 671.0m - CFO 1.06b) / TA 15.6b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.20 with a total of 2,316,514 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.89%, over one month by -0.86%, over three months by +6.89% and over the past year by +19.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.00 (which is 5.9% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
UGI has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UGI.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.3 | 13.8% |
P/E Trailing = 12.1204
P/E Forward = 7.728
P/S = 1.0654
P/B = 1.5162
P/EG = 48.818
Revenue TTM = 7.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 978.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.54b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.70b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.24b USD (calculated: Debt 6.71b - CCE 476.0m)
Enterprise Value = 14.0b USD (7.77b + Debt 6.71b - CCE 476.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.24 (Ebit TTM 978.0m / Interest Expense TTM 437.0m)
EV/FCF = 74.92x (Enterprise Value 14.0b / FCF TTM 187.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.33% (FCF TTM 187.0m / Enterprise Value 14.0b)
FCF Margin = 2.56% (FCF TTM 187.0m / Revenue TTM 7.30b)
Net Margin = 9.20% (Net Income TTM 671.0m / Revenue TTM 7.30b)
Gross Margin = 46.72% ((Revenue TTM 7.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.05% (prev 43.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 14.0b / Total Assets 15.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.51% (Interest Expense 437.0m / Debt 6.71b)
Taxrate = 12.06% (92.0m / 763.0m)
NOPAT = 860.1m (EBIT 978.0m * (1 - 12.06%))
Current Ratio = 1.44 (Total Current Assets 2.27b / Total Current Liabilities 1.58b)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 6.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.05 (Net Debt 6.24b / EBITDA 1.54b)
Debt / FCF = 33.35 (Net Debt 6.24b / FCF TTM 187.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.33% (Net Income 671.0m / Total Assets 15.6b)
RoE = 13.15% (Net Income TTM 671.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.10b)
RoCE = 8.29% (EBIT 978.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.10b + L.T.Debt 6.70b))
RoIC = 6.28% (NOPAT 860.1m / Invested Capital 13.7b)
WACC = 6.06% (E(7.77b)/V(14.5b) * Re(6.35%) + D(6.71b)/V(14.5b) * Rd(6.51%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 6.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 58.34 | Cagr: -0.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈289.4m ; Y1≈253.8m ; Y5≈205.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.29b - Net Debt 6.24b = -2.95b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.16 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -67.47 | Revenue CAGR: -4.86% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=1.35 | Chg30d=-3.90% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.80 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-15.8% | GrowthRev=+0.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=3.22 | Chg30d=-1.13% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+15.1% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)