(UGP) Ultrapar Participacoes - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Brazil • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US90400P1012

Lpg, Fuel, Lubricants, Terminals, Digital

Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Market Cap in USD: 4,136m

IPO / Inception: 1999-10-07
12m vs SPY: 37.6%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -47.24%
EPS Trend: 27.1%

Last SUE: -0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 64.63%
Rev. Trend: 42.4%

Last SUE: 0.05
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	8.74%
Yield on Cost 5y	8.09%
Yield CAGR 5y	25.90%
Payout Consistency	82.9%
Payout Ratio	24.6%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	39.5%
Value at Risk 5%th	64.6%
Relative Tail Risk	-0.59%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.38
Alpha	45.67
CAGR/Max DD	0.37

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.435
Beta	0.615
Beta Downside	0.507

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	58.58%
Mean DD	25.27%
Median DD	30.54%

Description: UGP Ultrapar Participacoes January 10, 2026

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (NYSE: UGP) is a Brazilian conglomerate that operates across energy, mobility, and infrastructure. Through subsidiaries it distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to residential, commercial and industrial customers, markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural-gas-for-vehicles and lubricants, runs the Am Pm convenience-store chain, provides Jet Oil lubricant services, and manages liquid-bulk storage terminals. The group also offers a digital-payments platform (the “abastece aí” app) linked to the “Km de Vantagens” loyalty program, and exports its products to North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia.

Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show ≈ R$ 30 billion in total revenue, with the LPG segment contributing about 30 % and delivering an EBITDA margin of ≈ 15 %. The company’s storage business benefits from Brazil’s growing demand for secure fuel logistics, while the convenience-store network has seen same-store sales growth of ~ 4 % YoY, driven by higher consumer spending on automotive-related items. Macro-level drivers include Brazil’s projected 2-3 % annual increase in total fuel consumption (driven by vehicle fleet expansion) and the country’s ongoing shift toward ethanol blends, which supports Ultrapar’s diversified fuel portfolio.

For a deeper, data-rich analysis of UGP’s valuation dynamics, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5

Net Income (2.97b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.39b TTM)

FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.48pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 5.28% (prev 4.47%; Δ 0.82pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.48b > Net Income 2.97b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (15.96b) to EBITDA (7.43b) ratio: 2.15 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.83 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.11b) change vs 12m ago -1.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 6.39% (prev 7.24%; Δ -0.85pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 329.4% (prev 334.5%; Δ -5.04pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 2.76 (EBITDA TTM 7.43b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.81

(A) 0.16 = (Total Current Assets 16.30b - Total Current Liabilities 8.91b) / Total Assets 45.56b

(B) 0.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.80b / Total Assets 45.56b

(D) 0.64 = Book Value of Equity 17.16b / Total Liabilities 26.90b

Total Rating: 2.81 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 70.51

1. Piotroski 4.50pt

2. FCF Yield 4.73%

3. FCF Margin 1.32%

4. Debt/Equity 1.13

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.15

6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.48)%

7. RoE 18.93%

8. Rev. Trend 42.39%

9. EPS Trend 27.06%

What is the price of UGP shares?

As of January 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.97 with a total of 1,491,899 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.32%, over one month by +1.28%, over three months by +4.83% and over the past year by +66.48%.

Is UGP a buy, sell or hold?

Ultrapar Participacoes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UGP.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 3
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the UGP price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	4.6	16.4%
Analysts Target Price	4.6	16.4%
ValueRay Target Price	5.1	29.5%

UGP Fundamental Data Overview January 10, 2026

Market Cap BRL = 22.22b (4.14b USD * 5.3713 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 7.74
P/E Forward = 9.1408
P/S = 0.0296
P/B = 1.3595
P/EG = 2.13
Beta = 0.439
Revenue TTM = 139.82b BRL
EBIT TTM = 5.97b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 7.43b BRL
Long Term Debt = 14.14b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.98b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.49b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.96b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.98b BRL (22.22b + Debt 18.49b - CCE 1.72b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.76 (Ebit TTM 5.97b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b)
EV/FCF = 21.15x (Enterprise Value 38.98b / FCF TTM 1.84b)
FCF Yield = 4.73% (FCF TTM 1.84b / Enterprise Value 38.98b)
FCF Margin = 1.32% (FCF TTM 1.84b / Revenue TTM 139.82b)
Net Margin = 2.13% (Net Income TTM 2.97b / Revenue TTM 139.82b)
Gross Margin = 6.39% ((Revenue TTM 139.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 130.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.69% (prev 6.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 38.98b / Total Assets 45.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.19% (Interest Expense 774.5m / Debt 18.49b)
Taxrate = 24.95% (257.4m / 1.03b)
NOPAT = 4.48b (EBIT 5.97b * (1 - 24.95%))
Current Ratio = 1.83 (Total Current Assets 16.30b / Total Current Liabilities 8.91b)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 18.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.15 (Net Debt 15.96b / EBITDA 7.43b)
Debt / FCF = 8.66 (Net Debt 15.96b / FCF TTM 1.84b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.00% (Net Income 2.97b / Total Assets 45.56b)
RoE = 18.93% (Net Income TTM 2.97b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.70b)
RoCE = 19.99% (EBIT 5.97b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.70b + L.T.Debt 14.14b))
RoIC = 14.37% (NOPAT 4.48b / Invested Capital 31.16b)
WACC = 5.89% (E(22.22b)/V(40.71b) * Re(8.18%) + D(18.49b)/V(40.71b) * Rd(4.19%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈1.35b ; Y1≈1.67b ; Y5≈2.84b
Fair Price DCF = 62.44 (EV 82.68b - Net Debt 15.96b = Equity 66.72b / Shares 1.07b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 27.06 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.39 | Revenue CAGR: 64.63% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-8.6% | Growth Revenue=-1.0%

Additional Sources for UGP Stock

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