UGP Stock Analysis: Ultrapar Participacoes | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.077m USD | 12M Return: 104.7% | US90400P1012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 22.2M
EPS Trend: -15.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (NYSE: UGP) is a Brazilian holding company founded in 1937 and headquartered in São Paulo, operating across the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, and Oceania. The company is classified under the GICS Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation sub-industry and trades on the NYSE as an American Depositary Receipt, having listed in October 1999.
Its business is organized into four main segments: Ultragaz (liquefied petroleum gas distribution for residential, commercial, industrial, and agribusiness customers), Ipiranga (fuel distribution, service stations under the Ipiranga brand, AmPm convenience stores, ICONIC lubricants, and Jet Oil automotive services), Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers), and Hidrovias (waterway and multimodal infrastructure, including port operations for grains, ores, and fertilizers). Ipiranga is one of the largest fuel distribution networks in Brazil, giving Ultrapar significant scale in the countrys downstream fuel market.
Beyond conventional fuels, the company sells biofuels such as ethanol, as well as natural gas for vehicles, compressed natural gas, biomethane, and renewable electricity for corporate clients, households, and industrial customers. It also operates a natural gas pipeline network. Ultrapar runs the Km de Vantagens (KMV) loyalty program and exports products and services internationally.
- Ipiranga fuel margins pressured by Brazilian price regulation
- Ultragaz LPG demand grows with Brazilian residential consumption
- Hidrovias logistics revenue rises on grain export volumes
| Net Income: 3.49b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.95% < 20% (prev 5.49%; Δ 0.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 6.37b > Net Income 3.49b |
| Net Debt (12.0b) to EBITDA (10.3b): 1.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.09b) vs 12m ago -1.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 8.41% > 18% (prev 6.32%; Δ 2.09% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 313.8% > 50% (prev 302.9%; Δ 10.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM 8.55b / Interest Expense TTM 2.86b) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 23.4b - Total Current Liabilities 14.3b) / Total Assets 52.7b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 10.1b / Total Assets 52.7b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 8.55b / Avg Total Assets 49.1b) |
| D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 17.9b / Total Liabilities 32.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.51 = A |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 7.95b/7.54b, Revenue 154b/138b) |
| GMI: 0.75 (GM 6.32% / 8.41%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 154b / 138b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 3.49b - CFO 6.37b) / TA 52.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.66 with a total of 4,790,844 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.32%, over one month by +17.37%, over three months by +59.66% and over the past year by +104.65%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.30 (which is 4.7% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Ultrapar Participacoes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UGP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.6 | -1.2% |
Market Cap BRL = 41.8b (8.08b USD * 5.1703 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 11.8438
P/E Forward = 9.2421
P/S = 0.0527
P/B = 2.3181
P/EG = 0.7813
Revenue TTM = 154b BRL
EBIT TTM = 8.55b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 10.3b BRL
Long Term Debt = 13.4b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.76b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 21.2b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.70b
Net Debt = 12.0b BRL (calculated: Debt 21.2b - CCE 9.24b)
Enterprise Value = 53.8b BRL (41.8b + Debt 21.2b - CCE 9.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.99 (Ebit TTM 8.55b / Interest Expense TTM 2.86b)
EV/FCF = 11.14x (Enterprise Value 53.8b / FCF TTM 4.82b)
FCF Yield = 8.97% (FCF TTM 4.82b / Enterprise Value 53.8b)
FCF Margin = 3.13% (FCF TTM 4.82b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Net Margin = 2.26% (Net Income TTM 3.49b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Gross Margin = 8.41% ((Revenue TTM 154b - Cost of Revenue TTM 141b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.12% (prev 8.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 53.8b / Total Assets 52.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.47% (Interest Expense 2.86b / Debt 21.2b)
Taxrate = 31.55% (1.77b / 5.61b)
NOPAT = 5.85b (EBIT 8.55b * (1 - 31.55%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 23.4b / Total Current Liabilities 14.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 21.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.16 (Net Debt 12.0b / EBITDA 10.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.49 (Net Debt 12.0b / FCF TTM 4.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.11% (Net Income 3.49b / Total Assets 52.7b)
RoE = 26.22% (Net Income TTM 3.49b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.3b)
RoCE = 31.99% (EBIT 8.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.3b + L.T.Debt 13.4b))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 5.85b / Invested Capital 35.4b)
WACC = 8.72% (E(41.8b)/V(63.0b) * Re(8.46%) + D(21.2b)/V(63.0b) * Rd(13.47%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 8.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -83.84 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.80% ; FCFF base≈3.68b ; Y1≈4.22b ; Y5≈6.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 71.17 (EV 87.8b - Net Debt 12.0b = Equity 75.8b / Shares 1.07b; r=8.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -15.21 | EPS CAGR: -5.14% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.77 | Revenue CAGR: 6.88% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+59.69% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+26.22% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+238.9% | GrowthRev=+13.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=+11.65% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-26.5% | GrowthRev=-2.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73% (up=8, down=0)