UGP Stock Analysis: Ultrapar Participacoes | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.413m USD | 12M Return: 134.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.7M
EPS Trend: -28.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 81.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (NYSE: UGP) is a Brazilian holding company founded in 1937 and headquartered in São Paulo, operating across the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, and Oceania. The company is classified under the GICS Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation sub-industry and trades on the NYSE as an American Depositary Receipt, having listed in October 1999.
Its business is organized into four main segments: Ultragaz (liquefied petroleum gas distribution for residential, commercial, industrial, and agribusiness customers), Ipiranga (fuel distribution, service stations under the Ipiranga brand, AmPm convenience stores, ICONIC lubricants, and Jet Oil automotive services), Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers), and Hidrovias (waterway and multimodal infrastructure, including port operations for grains, ores, and fertilizers). Ipiranga is one of the largest fuel distribution networks in Brazil, giving Ultrapar significant scale in the countrys downstream fuel market.
Beyond conventional fuels, the company sells biofuels such as ethanol, as well as natural gas for vehicles, compressed natural gas, biomethane, and renewable electricity for corporate clients, households, and industrial customers. It also operates a natural gas pipeline network. Ultrapar runs the Km de Vantagens (KMV) loyalty program and exports products and services internationally.
- Ipiranga fuel margins pressured by Brazilian price regulation
- Ultragaz LPG demand grows with Brazilian residential consumption
- Hidrovias logistics revenue rises on grain export volumes
| Net Income: 3.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.19 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.14% < 20% (prev 4.60%; Δ -3.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.34 > 3% & CFO 3.51b > Net Income 3.00b |
| Net Debt (16.3b) to EBITDA (9.22b): 1.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.09b) vs 12m ago -1.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.13% > 18% (prev 6.37%; Δ 0.75% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 607.4% > 50% (prev 361.4%; Δ 246.0% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.50b / Interest Expense TTM 2.89b) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 4.17b - Total Current Liabilities 2.50b) / Total Assets 10.3b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 1.71b / Total Assets 10.3b) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 7.50b / Avg Total Assets 24.0b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 3.31b / Total Liabilities 6.54b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.24 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.21 (Receivables 1.62b/7.15b, Revenue 146b/136b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 6.37% / 7.13%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 146b / 136b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 3.00b - CFO 3.51b) / TA 10.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.82 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.28 with a total of 2,824,440 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.72%, over one month by +28.43%, over three months by +6.62% and over the past year by +134.52%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.90 (which is 6.1% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Ultrapar Participacoes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UGP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.4 | 2.4% |
Market Cap BRL = 32.5b (6.41b USD * 5.0732 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 10.9091
P/E Forward = 11.8064
P/S = 0.044
P/B = 2.0177
P/EG = 0.7813
Revenue TTM = 146b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.50b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 9.22b BRL
Long Term Debt = 15.1b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 936.9m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.7b BRL (corrected: LT Debt 15.1b + ST Debt 936.9m) + Leases 1.69b
Net Debt = 16.3b BRL (calculated: Debt 17.7b - CCE 1.44b)
Enterprise Value = 48.8b BRL (32.5b + Debt 17.7b - CCE 1.44b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.60 (Ebit TTM 7.50b / Interest Expense TTM 2.89b)
EV/FCF = 25.50x (Enterprise Value 48.8b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
FCF Yield = 3.92% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 48.8b)
FCF Margin = 1.31% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 146b)
Net Margin = 2.06% (Net Income TTM 3.00b / Revenue TTM 146b)
Gross Margin = 7.13% ((Revenue TTM 146b - Cost of Revenue TTM 135b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.64% (prev 6.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.76 (Enterprise Value 48.8b / Total Assets 10.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.32% (Interest Expense 2.89b / Debt 17.7b)
Taxrate = 28.48% (1.31b / 4.61b)
NOPAT = 5.36b (EBIT 7.50b * (1 - 28.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 4.17b / Total Current Liabilities 2.50b)
Debt / Equity = 5.35 (Debt 17.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.31b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.76 (Net Debt 16.3b / EBITDA 9.22b)
Debt / FCF = 8.50 (Net Debt 16.3b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.48% (Net Income 3.00b / Total Assets 10.3b)
RoE = 23.31% (Net Income TTM 3.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.9b)
RoCE = 26.86% (EBIT 7.50b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.9b + L.T.Debt 15.1b))
RoIC = 74.03% (NOPAT 5.36b / Invested Capital 7.25b)
WACC = 9.28% (E(32.5b)/V(50.2b) * Re(7.98%) + D(17.7b)/V(50.2b) * Rd(16.32%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -66.45 | Cagr: -0.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.84% ; FCFF base≈1.82b ; Y1≈2.07b ; Y5≈2.98b
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.88 (EV 38.6b - Net Debt 16.3b = Equity 22.3b / Shares 1.07b; r=9.28% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 13.98% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -28.92 | EPS CAGR: -8.61% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 81.81 | Revenue CAGR: 4.45% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=+34.62% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+56.32% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=+15.71% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+150.7% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=-1.19% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-9.4% | GrowthRev=+0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -22% (up=2, down=4)