UGP Stock Analysis: Ultrapar Participacoes | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.074m USD | 12M Return: 36.2% | US90400P1012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 28.3M
EPS Trend: -15.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian holding company operating across the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors, with operations spanning Brazil, Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, and Oceania. The company conducts its business through four main segments: Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias.
Through its Ipiranga segment, the company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, and natural gas for vehicles under the Ipimax brand, while operating service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand. Ipiranga is one of the largest fuel distribution networks in Brazil. The company also produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand and offers automotive services through Jet Oil units, supported by the Km de Vantagens (KMV) loyalty program.
Its Ultragaz segment focuses on the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for residential, commercial, industrial, and agribusiness customers, while also operating a natural gas pipeline network and supplying renewable electricity, compressed natural gas (CNG), and biomethane to corporate clients. The Ultracargo and Hidrovias segments operate liquid bulk storage terminals at logistics centers and provide waterway, multimodal, and port infrastructure, offering logistics solutions for grains, ores, and fertilizers.
Ultrapar was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Listed on the NYSE under the ticker UGP, the company is classified under the GICS Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation sub-industry, reflecting its integrated role in fuel distribution, storage, and logistics across South America.
- Brazil fuel distribution margins at Ipiranga track diesel and gasoline spreads
- Ultragaz LPG demand recovery supports volume growth across Brazil
- Hidrovias waterway logistics revenue tied to Brazilian grain and fertilizer exports
| Net Income: 3.49b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.95% < 20% (prev 5.49%; Δ 0.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 6.37b > Net Income 3.49b |
| Net Debt (12.0b) to EBITDA (10.3b): 1.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.09b) vs 12m ago -1.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 8.41% > 18% (prev 6.32%; Δ 2.09% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 313.8% > 50% (prev 302.9%; Δ 10.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM 8.55b / Interest Expense TTM 2.86b) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 23.4b - Total Current Liabilities 14.3b) / Total Assets 52.7b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 10.1b / Total Assets 52.7b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 8.55b / Avg Total Assets 49.1b) |
| D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 17.9b / Total Liabilities 32.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.51 = A |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 7.95b/7.54b, Revenue 154b/138b) |
| GMI: 0.75 (GM 6.32% / 8.41%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 154b / 138b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 3.49b - CFO 6.37b) / TA 52.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.39 with a total of 3,329,136 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.43%, over one month by -31.69%, over three months by -7.66% and over the past year by +36.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.60 (which is 14.7% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Ultrapar Participacoes has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UGP.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.6 | 40.4% |
Market Cap BRL = 33.5b (6.07b USD * 5.5083 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 9.1935
P/E Forward = 9.2421
P/S = 0.0396
P/B = 1.8441
P/EG = 0.7813
Revenue TTM = 154b BRL
EBIT TTM = 8.55b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 10.3b BRL
Long Term Debt = 13.4b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.76b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 21.2b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.70b
Net Debt = 12.0b BRL (calculated: Debt 21.2b - CCE 9.24b)
Enterprise Value = 45.5b BRL (33.5b + Debt 21.2b - CCE 9.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.99 (Ebit TTM 8.55b / Interest Expense TTM 2.86b)
EV/FCF = 9.42x (Enterprise Value 45.5b / FCF TTM 4.82b)
FCF Yield = 10.61% (FCF TTM 4.82b / Enterprise Value 45.5b)
FCF Margin = 3.13% (FCF TTM 4.82b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Net Margin = 2.26% (Net Income TTM 3.49b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Gross Margin = 8.41% ((Revenue TTM 154b - Cost of Revenue TTM 141b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.12% (prev 8.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 45.5b / Total Assets 52.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.47% (Interest Expense 2.86b / Debt 21.2b)
Taxrate = 31.55% (1.77b / 5.61b)
NOPAT = 5.85b (EBIT 8.55b * (1 - 31.55%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 23.4b / Total Current Liabilities 14.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 21.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.16 (Net Debt 12.0b / EBITDA 10.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.49 (Net Debt 12.0b / FCF TTM 4.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.11% (Net Income 3.49b / Total Assets 52.7b)
RoE = 26.22% (Net Income TTM 3.49b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.3b)
RoCE = 31.99% (EBIT 8.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.3b + L.T.Debt 13.4b))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 5.85b / Invested Capital 35.4b)
WACC = 8.72% (E(33.5b)/V(54.7b) * Re(8.40%) + D(21.2b)/V(54.7b) * Rd(13.47%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 8.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -83.84 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.79% ; FCFF base≈3.68b ; Y1≈4.22b ; Y5≈6.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 71.15 (EV 87.8b - Net Debt 12.0b = Equity 75.8b / Shares 1.07b; r=8.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -15.21 | EPS CAGR: -5.14% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.77 | Revenue CAGR: 6.88% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+13.36% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=+8.68% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+248.6% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=+8.69% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-28.3% | GrowthRev=-1.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73% (up=8, down=0)