UPS Stock Analysis: United Parcel Service | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 88.877m USD | 12M Return: 29.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 529M
EPS Trend: -81.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -63.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a U.S.-headquartered package delivery and logistics provider founded in 1907 and based in Atlanta, Georgia. The company operates through two core segments: U.S. Domestic Package, which handles time-definite delivery of letters, documents, packages and palletized freight via air and ground, and International Package, which covers small parcel operations across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada, Latin America, and Asia. Beyond its core parcel business, UPS offers a broad portfolio of supply chain services, including international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage, insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. UPS is listed on the NYSE and falls within the Industrials sector under the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry, a segment characterized by integrated, network-driven business models that combine asset-intensive transportation fleets with value-added supply chain solutions for global shippers.
- Teamsters contract renewal pressures U.S. Domestic Package margins
- Amazon in-sourcing volumes erodes U.S. small package share
- Soft B2B demand pressures domestic shipping volume and revenue
| Net Income: 4.57b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.96% < 20% (prev 5.11%; Δ -2.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 8.89b > Net Income 4.57b |
| Net Debt (24.8b) to EBITDA (10.6b): 2.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (851.0m) vs 12m ago 0.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.63% > 18% (prev 18.29%; Δ -1.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 126.5% > 50% (prev 127.2%; Δ -0.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.63b) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 17.5b - Total Current Liabilities 14.9b) / Total Assets 71.3b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 18.8b / Total Assets 71.3b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 6.73b / Avg Total Assets 71.1b) |
| D: 0.27 (Book Value of Equity 15.1b / Total Liabilities 56.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.02 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 10.7b/10.4b, Revenue 89.9b/90.2b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 18.29% / 16.63%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 89.9b / 90.2b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 4.57b - CFO 8.89b) / TA 71.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 104.22 with a total of 4,535,395 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.21%, over one month by -3.05%, over three months by -2.59% and over the past year by +29.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 97.30 (which is 6.6% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
United Parcel Service has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.84. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPS.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 115.9 | 11.2% |
P/E Trailing = 19.4225
P/E Forward = 14.5985
P/S = 0.9894
P/B = 5.8988
P/EG = 1.6501
Revenue TTM = 89.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.73b USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 23.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.36b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 29.5b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.28b
Net Debt = 24.8b USD (calculated: Debt 29.5b - CCE 4.65b)
Enterprise Value = 114b USD (88.9b + Debt 29.5b - CCE 4.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.14 (Ebit TTM 6.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.63b)
EV/FCF = 20.73x (Enterprise Value 114b / FCF TTM 5.49b)
FCF Yield = 4.82% (FCF TTM 5.49b / Enterprise Value 114b)
FCF Margin = 6.10% (FCF TTM 5.49b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Net Margin = 5.08% (Net Income TTM 4.57b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Gross Margin = 16.63% ((Revenue TTM 89.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 75.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.27% (prev 15.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.60 (Enterprise Value 114b / Total Assets 71.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.51% (Interest Expense 1.63b / Debt 29.5b)
Taxrate = 22.07% (1.29b / 5.86b)
NOPAT = 5.25b (EBIT 6.73b * (1 - 22.07%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 17.5b / Total Current Liabilities 14.9b)
Debt / Equity = 1.96 (Debt 29.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.34 (Net Debt 24.8b / EBITDA 10.6b)
Debt / FCF = 4.53 (Net Debt 24.8b / FCF TTM 5.49b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.43% (Net Income 4.57b / Total Assets 71.3b)
RoE = 29.07% (Net Income TTM 4.57b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.7b)
RoCE = 17.16% (EBIT 6.73b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.7b + L.T.Debt 23.5b))
RoIC = 9.85% (NOPAT 5.25b / Invested Capital 53.3b)
WACC = 7.86% (E(88.9b)/V(118b) * Re(9.04%) + D(29.5b)/V(118b) * Rd(5.51%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -63.89 | Cagr: -0.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈4.71b ; Y1≈5.40b ; Y5≈7.94b
[DCF] Fair Price = 126.8 (EV 119b - Net Debt 24.8b = Equity 94.7b / Shares 746.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -81.92 | EPS CAGR: -9.15% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.61 | Revenue CAGR: -0.93% | SUE: 2.60 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.65 | Chg30d=-4.62% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=24
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.21 | Chg30d=+1.16% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.07 | Chg30d=+0.89% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+12.0% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)