UPS Stock Analysis: United Parcel Service | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 92.914m USD | 12M Return: 12.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 543M
EPS Trend: -83.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -75.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a U.S.-headquartered package delivery and logistics provider founded in 1907 and based in Atlanta, Georgia. The company operates through two core segments: U.S. Domestic Package, which handles time-definite delivery of letters, documents, packages and palletized freight via air and ground, and International Package, which covers small parcel operations across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada, Latin America, and Asia. Beyond its core parcel business, UPS offers a broad portfolio of supply chain services, including international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage, insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. UPS is listed on the NYSE and falls within the Industrials sector under the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry, a segment characterized by integrated, network-driven business models that combine asset-intensive transportation fleets with value-added supply chain solutions for global shippers.
- Teamsters contract renewal pressures U.S. Domestic Package margins
- Amazon in-sourcing volumes erodes U.S. small package share
- Soft B2B demand pressures domestic shipping volume and revenue
| Net Income: 5.25b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.53% < 20% (prev 1.58%; Δ 1.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 8.36b > Net Income 5.25b |
| Net Debt (27.1b) to EBITDA (11.6b): 2.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (850.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.79% > 18% (prev 18.18%; Δ -0.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 125.9% > 50% (prev 132.6%; Δ -6.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.83b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 17.8b - Total Current Liabilities 14.7b) / Total Assets 71.8b |
| B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 19.6b / Total Assets 71.8b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 7.83b / Avg Total Assets 70.1b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 15.8b / Total Liabilities 56.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.22 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 9.95b/9.89b, Revenue 88.3b/90.8b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 18.18% / 17.79%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 88.3b / 90.8b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 5.25b - CFO 8.36b) / TA 71.8b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 110.66 with a total of 3,206,092 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.24%, over one month by +1.59%, over three months by +14.61% and over the past year by +12.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 107.10 (which is 3.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
United Parcel Service has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.84. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPS.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 113.6 | 2.7% |
P/E Trailing = 17.6877
P/E Forward = 15.2672
P/S = 1.0521
P/B = 5.8944
P/EG = 1.7251
Revenue TTM = 88.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 7.83b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 23.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.38b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.28b
Net Debt = 27.1b USD (calculated: Debt 32.9b - CCE 5.80b)
Enterprise Value = 120b USD (92.9b + Debt 32.9b - CCE 5.80b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.40 (Ebit TTM 7.83b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b)
EV/FCF = 26.58x (Enterprise Value 120b / FCF TTM 4.52b)
FCF Yield = 3.76% (FCF TTM 4.52b / Enterprise Value 120b)
FCF Margin = 5.11% (FCF TTM 4.52b / Revenue TTM 88.3b)
Net Margin = 5.94% (Net Income TTM 5.25b / Revenue TTM 88.3b)
Gross Margin = 17.79% ((Revenue TTM 88.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 72.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.84% (prev 20.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.67 (Enterprise Value 120b / Total Assets 71.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.21% (Interest Expense 1.06b / Debt 32.9b)
Taxrate = 22.41% (1.52b / 6.76b)
NOPAT = 6.07b (EBIT 7.83b * (1 - 22.41%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 17.8b / Total Current Liabilities 14.7b)
Debt / Equity = 2.09 (Debt 32.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.33 (Net Debt 27.1b / EBITDA 11.6b)
Debt / FCF = 6.01 (Net Debt 27.1b / FCF TTM 4.52b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.48% (Net Income 5.25b / Total Assets 71.8b)
RoE = 33.03% (Net Income TTM 5.25b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.9b)
RoCE = 19.74% (EBIT 7.83b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.9b + L.T.Debt 23.7b))
RoIC = 11.22% (NOPAT 6.07b / Invested Capital 54.1b)
WACC = 7.39% (E(92.9b)/V(126b) * Re(9.12%) + D(32.9b)/V(126b) * Rd(3.21%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -50.60 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈4.86b ; Y1≈4.26b ; Y5≈3.44b
[DCF] Fair Price = 37.67 (EV 55.3b - Net Debt 27.1b = Equity 28.1b / Shares 746.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -83.16 | EPS CAGR: -12.81% | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -75.25 | Revenue CAGR: -1.84% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=-4% | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.13 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=+28% | GrowthEPS=-0.5% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.00 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+12.3% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +28%