Overview Dividends

(UPS) United Parcel Service - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US9113121068

Package Delivery, Freight Forwarding, Logistics Services

UPS EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -23.39%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -55.9%

UPS Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -8.00%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): -43.5%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	26.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	39.0%
Relative Tail Risk	-9.85%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.79
Alpha	-33.11

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.409
Beta	0.754
Beta Downside	0.707

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	52.19%
Mean DD	24.87%
Median DD	25.22%

Description: UPS United Parcel Service September 26, 2025

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is a global package delivery and logistics firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. It provides transportation and delivery services across a broad portfolio that includes air and ground freight, customs brokerage, insurance, and specialized solutions for healthcare and post-sale logistics.

The business is organized into two primary segments. The U.S. Domestic Package segment focuses on time-definite delivery of letters, documents, parcels, and palletized freight within the United States, leveraging both air and ground networks. The International Package segment operates small-package services in Europe, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East and Africa, Canada, Latin America, and Asia, offering guaranteed day- and time-definite shipping, cross-border ground delivery, e-commerce contracts, and urgent palletized shipments, as well as air/ocean freight forwarding and contract logistics.

Key quantitative signals (FY 2023) include total revenue of roughly $91 billion, an operating margin of 7.5 %, and a 5 % year-over-year increase in e-commerce volume-driven by sustained online retail demand and the rollout of UPS’s “Air2” network for faster cross-border deliveries. The segment’s performance is highly sensitive to fuel price volatility (fuel accounts for ~5 % of total costs) and labor market tightness, which has pushed wage growth above inflation in the U.S. logistics sector. A strategic focus on electrifying the last-mile fleet (targeting 25 % of U.S. delivery vehicles to be electric by 2030) reflects broader industry pressure to reduce carbon intensity.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of UPS’s valuation and risk profile, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analytics available on ValueRay.

UPS Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	81,403m
Sub-Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
IPO / Inception	1999-11-10
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-32.9%
Analyst Rating	3.84 of 5

UPS Dividends

Dividend Yield	6.82%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.70%
Yield CAGR 5y	12.71%
Payout Consistency	99.6%
Payout Ratio	87.1%

UPS Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	-15.13%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.29
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.61
Current Volume	6583k
Average Volume	6583k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income (5.50b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.36b TTM)

FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.23pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 4.96% (prev 2.41%; Δ 2.55pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 8.46b > Net Income 5.50b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (22.45b) to EBITDA (11.59b) ratio: 1.94 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.30 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (849.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.46% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 18.09% (prev 17.75%; Δ 0.34pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 128.0% (prev 132.6%; Δ -4.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 8.07 (EBITDA TTM 11.59b / Interest Expense TTM 978.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.37

(A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 18.98b - Total Current Liabilities 14.55b) / Total Assets 71.39b

(B) 0.28 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.75b / Total Assets 71.39b

(D) 0.28 = Book Value of Equity 15.64b / Total Liabilities 55.54b

Total Rating: 2.37 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.91

1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50

2. FCF Yield 4.23% = 2.12

3. FCF Margin 4.92% = 1.23

4. Debt/Equity 1.85 = 1.00

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.94 = 0.12

6. ROIC - WACC (= 10.04)% = 12.50

7. RoE 34.41% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend -43.51% = -3.26

9. EPS Trend -55.93% = -2.80

What is the price of UPS shares?

As of November 15, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 95.98 with a total of 6,583,028 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.03%, over one month by +14.19%, over three months by +10.44% and over the past year by -23.05%.

Is United Parcel Service a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, United Parcel Service is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 63.91 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of UPS is around 88.76 USD . This means that UPS is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -7.52%.

Is UPS a buy, sell or hold?

United Parcel Service has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.84. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPS.

Strong Buy: 14
Buy: 3
Hold: 12
Sell: 2
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the UPS price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	103.6	8%
Analysts Target Price	103.6	8%
ValueRay Target Price	97.4	1.4%

UPS Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 81.40b (81.40b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.83
P/E Forward = 11.6414
P/S = 0.9097
P/B = 4.6049
P/EG = 1.3302
Beta = 1.096
Revenue TTM = 89.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 7.90b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.59b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.45b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.67b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 29.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.45b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 103.85b USD (81.40b + Debt 29.21b - CCE 6.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.07 (Ebit TTM 7.90b / Interest Expense TTM 978.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.23% (FCF TTM 4.40b / Enterprise Value 103.85b)
FCF Margin = 4.92% (FCF TTM 4.40b / Revenue TTM 89.37b)
Net Margin = 6.16% (Net Income TTM 5.50b / Revenue TTM 89.37b)
Gross Margin = 18.09% ((Revenue TTM 89.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 73.20b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.28% (prev 17.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 103.85b / Total Assets 71.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.00% (Interest Expense 291.0m / Debt 29.21b)
Taxrate = 18.42% (296.0m / 1.61b)
NOPAT = 6.44b (EBIT 7.90b * (1 - 18.42%))
Current Ratio = 1.30 (Total Current Assets 18.98b / Total Current Liabilities 14.55b)
Debt / Equity = 1.85 (Debt 29.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.94 (Net Debt 22.45b / EBITDA 11.59b)
Debt / FCF = 5.11 (Net Debt 22.45b / FCF TTM 4.40b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.71% (Net Income 5.50b / Total Assets 71.39b)
RoE = 34.41% (Net Income TTM 5.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.99b)
RoCE = 22.29% (EBIT 7.90b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.99b + L.T.Debt 19.45b))
RoIC = 16.73% (NOPAT 6.44b / Invested Capital 38.51b)
WACC = 6.69% (E(81.40b)/V(110.61b) * Re(8.80%) + D(29.21b)/V(110.61b) * Rd(1.00%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.79% ; FCFE base≈4.38b ; Y1≈3.55b ; Y5≈2.48b
Fair Price DCF = 54.36 (DCF Value 40.17b / Shares Outstanding 739.0m; 5y FCF grow -22.72% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -55.93 | EPS CAGR: -23.39% | SUE: 3.47 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -43.51 | Revenue CAGR: -8.00% | SUE: 1.37 | # QB: 1

Additional Sources for UPS Stock

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