UPS Stock Analysis: United Parcel Service | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 78.314m USD | 12M Return: 19.2% | US9113121068 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 436M
EPS Trend: -81.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -63.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is a global package delivery and logistics provider founded in 1907 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. The company operates through two main segments: U.S. Domestic Package, which provides time-definite air and ground delivery for letters, documents, packages, and palletized freight within the United States, and International Package, which offers small package operations across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, Latin America, and Asia. In addition to its core delivery services, UPS provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage, healthcare logistics, and e-commerce shipping solutions. As one of the largest integrated logistics companies in the Industrials sector, UPS competes in the highly competitive air freight and logistics industry, where scale, global network coverage, and last-mile delivery capabilities are key competitive advantages.
- U.S. domestic package volume declines on soft retail demand
- Teamsters contract renewal drives elevated U.S. wage inflation
- Amazon in-sourcing caps domestic small package market share
| Net Income: 4.57b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.96% < 20% (prev 5.11%; Δ -2.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 8.89b > Net Income 4.57b |
| Net Debt (28.2b) to EBITDA (10.6b): 2.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (851.0m) vs 12m ago 0.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.63% > 18% (prev 18.29%; Δ -1.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 126.5% > 50% (prev 127.2%; Δ -0.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.63b) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 17.5b - Total Current Liabilities 14.9b) / Total Assets 71.3b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 18.8b / Total Assets 71.3b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 6.73b / Avg Total Assets 71.1b) |
| D: 0.27 (Book Value of Equity 15.1b / Total Liabilities 56.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.02 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 10.7b/10.4b, Revenue 89.9b/90.2b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 18.29% / 16.63%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 89.9b / 90.2b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 4.57b - CFO 8.89b) / TA 71.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 93.44 with a total of 3,728,660 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.48%, over one month by -10.35%, over three months by -11.69% and over the past year by +19.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 90.70 (which is 2.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
United Parcel Service has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.84. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPS.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 115.8 | 23.9% |
P/E Trailing = 17.8391
P/E Forward = 12.0482
P/S = 0.8708
P/B = 5.4106
P/EG = 1.3619
Revenue TTM = 89.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.73b USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 23.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.36b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.19b
Net Debt = 28.2b USD (calculated: Debt 32.9b - CCE 4.65b)
Enterprise Value = 107b USD (78.3b + Debt 32.9b - CCE 4.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.14 (Ebit TTM 6.73b / Interest Expense TTM 1.63b)
EV/FCF = 19.42x (Enterprise Value 107b / FCF TTM 5.49b)
FCF Yield = 5.15% (FCF TTM 5.49b / Enterprise Value 107b)
FCF Margin = 6.10% (FCF TTM 5.49b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Net Margin = 5.08% (Net Income TTM 4.57b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Gross Margin = 16.63% ((Revenue TTM 89.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 75.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.27% (prev 15.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 107b / Total Assets 71.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.95% (Interest Expense 1.63b / Debt 32.9b)
Taxrate = 22.07% (1.29b / 5.86b)
NOPAT = 5.25b (EBIT 6.73b * (1 - 22.07%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 17.5b / Total Current Liabilities 14.9b)
Debt / Equity = 2.18 (Debt 32.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.66 (Net Debt 28.2b / EBITDA 10.6b)
Debt / FCF = 5.14 (Net Debt 28.2b / FCF TTM 5.49b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.43% (Net Income 4.57b / Total Assets 71.3b)
RoE = 29.07% (Net Income TTM 4.57b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.7b)
RoCE = 17.02% (EBIT 6.73b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.7b + L.T.Debt 23.9b))
RoIC = 9.85% (NOPAT 5.25b / Invested Capital 53.3b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(78.3b)/V(111b) * Re(9.05%) + D(32.9b)/V(111b) * Rd(4.95%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -63.89 | Cagr: -0.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈4.71b ; Y1≈5.40b ; Y5≈7.94b
[DCF] Fair Price = 121.8 (EV 119b - Net Debt 28.2b = Equity 91.3b / Shares 749.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -81.92 | EPS CAGR: -9.15% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.61 | Revenue CAGR: -0.93% | SUE: 2.60 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.63 | Chg30d=-0.26% | Revisions=-64% | Analysts=23
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.20 | Chg30d=-0.10% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+0.6% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.07 | Chg30d=-0.14% | Revisions=+52% | GrowthEPS=+12.0% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -2% (up=25, down=26)