VAC Stock Analysis: Marriot Vacations Worldwide | NYSE

Timeshare Ownership, Exchange Programs, Property Management, Consumer Financing

Total Rating 54

Safety 35

Buy Signal 0.69

Resorts & Casinos
Industry Rotation: -13.5

Market Cap: 4.28B
Avg Turnover: 46.0M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility55.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl8.44%

VaR vs Median-7.46%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.13

Rel. Str. IBD97

Rel. Str. Peer Group94.6

Character TTM

Beta1.283

Beta Downside0.901

Hurst Exponent0.539

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD55.78%

CAGR/Max DD0.09

CAGR/Mean DD0.21

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -5.52%
EPS Trend: -48.6%

Last SUE: 0.61
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 12.08%
Rev. Trend: 71.5%

Last SUE: 0.14
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Fakeout

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -2.5% 18

Feb +3.4% 5

Mar -0.8% 19

Apr -1.8% 8

May -1.5% 5

Jun -0.1% 5

Jul +4.6% 23

Aug -0.0% 2

Sep -2.7% 15

Oct -0.1% 0

Nov -0.7% 2

Dec +1.1% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: VAC Marriot Vacations Worldwide

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC) is an Orlando, Florida-based vacation ownership company that operates in two segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company develops, markets, sells, finances, and manages timeshare and fractional ownership products under a portfolio of premium brands, including Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club, and holds rights to use the St. Regis brand for certain fractional products. It also operates Interval International, a vacation exchange network, and Aqua-Aston, which provides management and rental services to third-party resorts and lodging properties.

VAC distributes its upper-upscale vacation ownership products primarily through resort-based sales centers and supplements this with consumer financing for purchases and rental of its unsold inventory. The timeshare and vacation ownership industry commonly relies on a mix of upfront sales revenue, recurring maintenance fees, and interest income from buyer financing, with exchange networks like Interval International serving as a key retention and membership tool for owners.

Founded in 1984 and listed on the NYSE in 2011, VAC is classified as a mid-cap Consumer Discretionary stock within the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, distinguishing it from traditional hotel operators by combining real estate-like ownership sales with hospitality services.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Timeshare contract sales decline amid weaker consumer discretionary demand
Higher rates pressure timeshare financing volume and credit performance
Interval International membership growth drives Exchange segment revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -334.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.21 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 14.20% < 20% (prev 57.38%; Δ -43.19% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 140.0m > Net Income -334.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.04 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.2m) vs 12m ago -8.39% < -2%
Gross Margin: 9.34% > 18% (prev 52.03%; Δ -42.69% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 48.66% > 50% (prev 51.36%; Δ -2.70% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM -205.0m / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)

Altman Z'' 0.78

A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.31b - Total Current Liabilities 643.0m) / Total Assets 9.48b
B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 478.0m / Total Assets 9.48b)
C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -205.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.68b)
D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 2.06b / Total Liabilities 7.42b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.78 = B

Beneish M 0.76

DSRI: 0.16 (Receivables 428.0m/2.86b, Revenue 4.71b/5.08b)
GMI: 5.57 (GM 52.03% / 9.34%)
AQI: 1.66 (AQ_t 0.76 / AQ_t-1 0.46)
SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 4.71b / 5.08b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI -334.0m - CFO 140.0m) / TA 9.48b)
Beneish M = 0.76 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of VAC shares?

As of August 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 114.86 with a total of 353,328 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.38%, over one month by +17.62%, over three months by +54.31% and over the past year by +70.48%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 98.10 (which is 14.6% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).

Is VAC a buy, sell or hold?

Marriot Vacations Worldwide has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.36. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VAC.

StrongBuy: 5
Buy: 1
Hold: 1
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the VAC price?

Analysts Target Price	90.3	-21.4%

Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 4.28b (4.28b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 6.9735
P/S = 1.285
P/B = 1.6811
P/EG = 1.48
Revenue TTM = 4.71b USD
EBIT TTM = -205.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -66.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 210.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 5.95b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 198.0m
Net Debt = 5.74b USD (calculated: Debt 5.95b - CCE 211.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.0b USD (4.28b + Debt 5.95b - CCE 211.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.18 (Ebit TTM -205.0m / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)
EV/FCF = 115.2x (Enterprise Value 10.0b / FCF TTM 87.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.87% (FCF TTM 87.0m / Enterprise Value 10.0b)
FCF Margin = 1.85% (FCF TTM 87.0m / Revenue TTM 4.71b)
Net Margin = -7.09% (Net Income TTM -334.0m / Revenue TTM 4.71b)
Gross Margin = 9.34% ((Revenue TTM 4.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 13.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 10.0b / Total Assets 9.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.92% (Interest Expense 174.0m / Debt 5.95b)
Taxrate = 32.46% (37.0m / 114.0m)
NOPAT = -138.5m (EBIT -205.0m * (1 - 32.46%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.04 (Total Current Assets 1.31b / Total Current Liabilities 643.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.89 (Debt 5.95b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = -86.97 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 5.74b / EBITDA -66.0m)
Debt / FCF = 65.98 (Net Debt 5.74b / FCF TTM 87.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.45% (Net Income -334.0m / Total Assets 9.48b)
RoE = -15.70% (Net Income TTM -334.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.13b)
RoCE = -2.69% (EBIT -205.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.13b + L.T.Debt 5.48b))
RoIC = -1.57% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -138.5m / Invested Capital 8.84b)
WACC = 5.54% (E(4.28b)/V(10.2b) * Re(10.49%) + D(5.95b)/V(10.2b) * Rd(2.92%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 10.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -78.14 | Cagr: -4.33%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈80.2m ; Y1≈91.9m ; Y5≈135.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.04b - Net Debt 5.74b = -3.70b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -48.64 | EPS CAGR: -5.52% | SUE: 0.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.46 | Revenue CAGR: 12.08% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.95 | Chg30d=-0.10% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.55 | Chg30d=+0.49% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+5.4% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.54 | Chg30d=+1.05% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+13.1% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)