VAC Stock Analysis: Marriot Vacations Worldwide | NYSE

Timeshare Ownership, Exchange Programs, Property Management, Consumer Financing

Total Rating 42

Safety 43

Buy Signal 1.84

Resorts & Casinos
Industry Rotation: +28.7

Market Cap: 3.94B
Avg Turnover: 45.0M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility47.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.39%

VaR vs Median-5.88%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.84

Rel. Str. IBD97.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group94.4 pctl

Character TTM

Beta1.191

Beta Downside0.786

Hurst Exponent0.451

Choppyness44.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD55.13%

CAGR/Max DD0.32

CAGR/Mean DD0.79

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -0.40%
EPS Trend: -4.4%

Last SUE: 0.19
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 8.69%
Rev. Trend: 67.4%

Last SUE: -0.25
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Tailwind

Pullback 52w

Confidence

Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026

Jan -2.0% 9

Feb +4.7% 4

Mar -1.4% 4

Apr +1.8% 4

May +0.2% 4

Jun +0.5% 0

Jul +0.2% 4

Aug -2.1% 4

Sep -3.5% 4

Oct +1.1% 14

Nov +1.7% 0

Dec +1.6% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.

Description: VAC Marriot Vacations Worldwide

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC) is an Orlando, Florida-based vacation ownership company that operates in two segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company develops, markets, sells, finances, and manages timeshare and fractional ownership products under a portfolio of premium brands, including Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club, and holds rights to use the St. Regis brand for certain fractional products. It also operates Interval International, a vacation exchange network, and Aqua-Aston, which provides management and rental services to third-party resorts and lodging properties.

VAC distributes its upper-upscale vacation ownership products primarily through resort-based sales centers and supplements this with consumer financing for purchases and rental of its unsold inventory. The timeshare and vacation ownership industry commonly relies on a mix of upfront sales revenue, recurring maintenance fees, and interest income from buyer financing, with exchange networks like Interval International serving as a key retention and membership tool for owners.

Founded in 1984 and listed on the NYSE in 2011, VAC is classified as a mid-cap Consumer Discretionary stock within the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, distinguishing it from traditional hotel operators by combining real estate-like ownership sales with hospitality services.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Timeshare contract sales decline amid weaker consumer discretionary demand
Higher rates pressure timeshare financing volume and credit performance
Interval International membership growth drives Exchange segment revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5

Net Income: -250.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 58.88% < 20% (prev 71.49%; Δ -12.62% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 210.0m > Net Income -250.0m
Net Debt (5.66b) to EBITDA (84.0m): 67.39 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.57 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.6m) vs 12m ago 10.60% < -2%
Gross Margin: 22.04% > 18% (prev 40.20%; Δ -18.15% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 53.70% > 50% (prev 45.18%; Δ 8.52% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM -50.0m / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)

Altman Z'' 2.60

A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 4.31b - Total Current Liabilities 1.21b) / Total Assets 9.47b
B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 532.0m / Total Assets 9.47b)
C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -50.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.81b)
D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 2.12b / Total Liabilities 7.35b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.60 = A

Beneish M -0.52

DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 3.10b/220.0m, Revenue 5.27b/4.58b)
GMI: 1.82 (GM 40.20% / 22.04%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.43)
SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 5.27b / 4.58b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI -250.0m - CFO 210.0m) / TA 9.47b)
Beneish M = -0.52 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of VAC shares?

As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 115.68 with a total of 273,615 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.45%, over one month by +10.04%, over three months by +2.97% and over the past year by +140.59%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 102.70 (which is 11.2% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).

Is VAC a buy, sell or hold?

Marriot Vacations Worldwide has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VAC.

StrongBuy: 6
Buy: 2
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 2

What are the forecasts/targets for the VAC price?

Analysts Target Price	123	6.3%

Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.94b (3.94b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 6.9735
P/S = 1.1523
P/B = 1.983
P/EG = 1.48
Revenue TTM = 5.27b USD
EBIT TTM = -50.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 84.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 210.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 5.89b USD (corrected: LT Debt 5.48b + ST Debt 210.0m) + Leases 198.0m
Net Debt = 5.66b USD (calculated: Debt 5.89b - CCE 229.0m)
Enterprise Value = 9.60b USD (3.94b + Debt 5.89b - CCE 229.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.29 (Ebit TTM -50.0m / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)
EV/FCF = 58.51x (Enterprise Value 9.60b / FCF TTM 164.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.71% (FCF TTM 164.0m / Enterprise Value 9.60b)
FCF Margin = 3.11% (FCF TTM 164.0m / Revenue TTM 5.27b)
Net Margin = -4.75% (Net Income TTM -250.0m / Revenue TTM 5.27b)
Gross Margin = 22.04% ((Revenue TTM 5.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.55% (prev 17.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 9.60b / Total Assets 9.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.95% (Interest Expense 174.0m / Debt 5.89b)
Taxrate = 27.43% (31.0m / 113.0m)
NOPAT = -36.3m (EBIT -50.0m * (1 - 27.43%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.57 (Total Current Assets 4.31b / Total Current Liabilities 1.21b)
Debt / Equity = 2.78 (Debt 5.89b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 67.39 (Net Debt 5.66b / EBITDA 84.0m)
Debt / FCF = 34.52 (Net Debt 5.66b / FCF TTM 164.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.55% (Net Income -250.0m / Total Assets 9.47b)
RoE = -12.25% (Net Income TTM -250.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.04b)
RoCE = -0.66% (EBIT -50.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.04b + L.T.Debt 5.48b))
RoIC = -0.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -36.3m / Invested Capital 8.24b)
WACC = 5.15% (E(3.94b)/V(9.83b) * Re(9.64%) + D(5.89b)/V(9.83b) * Rd(2.95%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -69.29 | Cagr: -3.89%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈123.6m ; Y1≈141.7m ; Y5≈208.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.14b - Net Debt 5.66b = -2.52b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -4.45 | EPS CAGR: -0.40% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 67.43 | Revenue CAGR: 8.69% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+1.70% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+22.3% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.62 | Chg30d=+0.59% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+9.9% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=6, down=4)