VAC Stock Analysis: Marriot Vacations Worldwide | NYSE
Resorts & Casinos | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.391m USD | 12M Return: 47.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.5M
EPS Trend: -62.7%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 77.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC) is an Orlando, Florida-based vacation ownership company that operates in two segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company develops, markets, sells, finances, and manages timeshare and fractional ownership products under a portfolio of premium brands, including Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club, and holds rights to use the St. Regis brand for certain fractional products. It also operates Interval International, a vacation exchange network, and Aqua-Aston, which provides management and rental services to third-party resorts and lodging properties.
VAC distributes its upper-upscale vacation ownership products primarily through resort-based sales centers and supplements this with consumer financing for purchases and rental of its unsold inventory. The timeshare and vacation ownership industry commonly relies on a mix of upfront sales revenue, recurring maintenance fees, and interest income from buyer financing, with exchange networks like Interval International serving as a key retention and membership tool for owners.
Founded in 1984 and listed on the NYSE in 2011, VAC is classified as a mid-cap Consumer Discretionary stock within the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, distinguishing it from traditional hotel operators by combining real estate-like ownership sales with hospitality services.
- Timeshare contract sales decline amid weaker consumer discretionary demand
- Higher rates pressure timeshare financing volume and credit performance
- Interval International membership growth drives Exchange segment revenue
| Net Income: -342.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.94% < 20% (prev 54.95%; Δ -29.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 16.0m > Net Income -342.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 8.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.9m) vs 12m ago -16.90% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.82% > 18% (prev 51.99%; Δ -25.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.53% > 50% (prev 50.31%; Δ -2.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM -226.0m / Interest Expense TTM 173.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.36b - Total Current Liabilities 161.0m) / Total Assets 9.64b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 429.0m / Total Assets 9.64b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -226.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.76b) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 1.99b / Total Liabilities 7.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.08 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.16 (Receivables 416.0m/2.83b, Revenue 4.64b/4.97b) |
| GMI: 1.94 (GM 51.99% / 26.82%) |
| AQI: 1.61 (AQ_t 0.76 / AQ_t-1 0.47) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 4.64b / 4.97b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -342.0m - CFO 16.0m) / TA 9.64b) |
| Beneish M = -2.56 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 101.88 with a total of 337,748 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.48%, over one month by +12.36%, over three months by +58.03% and over the past year by +47.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 97.20 (which is 4.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Marriot Vacations Worldwide has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.36. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VAC.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 3
| Analysts Target Price | 87.3 | -14.3% |
P/E Forward = 6.9735
P/S = 1.017
P/B = 1.7094
P/EG = 1.48
Revenue TTM = 4.64b USD
EBIT TTM = -226.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -81.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.37b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 161.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.84b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 198.0m
Net Debt = 5.58b USD (calculated: Debt 5.84b - CCE 268.0m)
Enterprise Value = 8.97b USD (3.39b + Debt 5.84b - CCE 268.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.31 (Ebit TTM -226.0m / Interest Expense TTM 173.0m)
EV/FCF = 80.07x (Enterprise Value 8.97b / FCF TTM 112.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.25% (FCF TTM 112.0m / Enterprise Value 8.97b)
FCF Margin = 2.41% (FCF TTM 112.0m / Revenue TTM 4.64b)
Net Margin = -7.37% (Net Income TTM -342.0m / Revenue TTM 4.64b)
Gross Margin = 26.82% ((Revenue TTM 4.64b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.52% (prev 14.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 8.97b / Total Assets 9.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 173.0m / Debt 5.84b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -178.5m (EBIT -226.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.16 (Total Current Assets 1.36b / Total Current Liabilities 431.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.93 (Debt 5.84b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.99b)
Debt / EBITDA = -68.85 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 5.58b / EBITDA -81.0m)
Debt / FCF = 49.79 (Net Debt 5.58b / FCF TTM 112.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.50% (Net Income -342.0m / Total Assets 9.64b)
RoE = -15.31% (Net Income TTM -342.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.23b)
RoCE = -2.97% (EBIT -226.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.23b + L.T.Debt 5.37b))
RoIC = -1.90% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -178.5m / Invested Capital 9.40b)
WACC = 5.58% (E(3.39b)/V(9.24b) * Re(11.17%) + D(5.84b)/V(9.24b) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.28 | Cagr: -8.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈207.6m ; Y1≈182.1m ; Y5≈147.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.36b - Net Debt 5.58b = -3.22b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -62.75 | EPS CAGR: -10.38% | SUE: -2.41 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 77.04 | Revenue CAGR: 13.69% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.96 | Chg30d=+10.30% | Revisions=+54% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.51 | Chg30d=-0.79% | Revisions=+23% | GrowthEPS=+4.9% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.45 | Chg30d=+0.85% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +54%