VALE Stock Analysis: Vale | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 63.819m USD | 12M Return: 58.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 341M
EPS Trend: -80.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -62.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vale S.A. is a Brazilian-headquartered mining company that produces and distributes iron ore, nickel, copper, and a range of by-products such as gold, silver, cobalt, and platinum-group metals. The company operates through two reporting segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals, and runs an integrated logistics network that includes mining complexes, railways, maritime terminals, ports, and its own shipping fleet. In addition to extraction, Vale generates energy from renewable sources, conducts greenfield mineral exploration, and engages in trading and research activities. Founded in 1942 as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and rebranded in 2009, Vale trades on the NYSE under the ticker VALE and is classified within the Materials sector, with iron ore representing the dominant share of its business and a key supply relationship with global steel producers.
- Chinese steel demand drives iron ore price realization
- Base metals margins track nickel and copper price cycles
- BRL weakness lifts USD iron ore revenue translation
| Net Income: 2.79b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.19% < 20% (prev 3.91%; Δ 4.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.29b > Net Income 2.79b |
| Net Debt (17.1b) to EBITDA (14.5b): 1.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (4.27b) vs 12m ago 0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.52% > 18% (prev 35.41%; Δ -0.89% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.24% > 50% (prev 44.58%; Δ 1.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 11.3b / Interest Expense TTM 1.60b) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 16.7b - Total Current Liabilities 13.5b) / Total Assets 87.5b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 3.06b / Total Assets 87.5b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 11.3b / Avg Total Assets 85.5b) |
| D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 36.6b / Total Liabilities 50.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.01 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 3.71b/3.24b, Revenue 39.5b/37.2b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 35.41% / 34.52%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 39.5b / 37.2b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 2.79b - CFO 9.29b) / TA 87.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.46 with a total of 17,845,251 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.54%, over one month by -3.15%, over three months by -14.74% and over the past year by +58.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.40 (which is 7.3% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Vale has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.92. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VALE.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 17.4 | 20.2% |
Market Cap BRL = 327b (63.8b USD * 5.1161 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 22.7121
P/E Forward = 7.2674
P/S = 0.297
P/B = 1.7308
P/EG = 0.3106
Revenue TTM = 39.5b BRL
EBIT TTM = 11.3b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 14.5b BRL
Long Term Debt = 21.0b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 757.2m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.4b BRL (corrected: LT Debt 21.0b + ST Debt 757.2m) + Leases 641.0m
Net Debt = 17.1b BRL (calculated: Debt 22.4b - CCE 5.28b)
Enterprise Value = 344b BRL (327b + Debt 22.4b - CCE 5.28b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.04 (Ebit TTM 11.3b / Interest Expense TTM 1.60b)
EV/FCF = 102.5x (Enterprise Value 344b / FCF TTM 3.35b)
FCF Yield = 0.98% (FCF TTM 3.35b / Enterprise Value 344b)
FCF Margin = 8.48% (FCF TTM 3.35b / Revenue TTM 39.5b)
Net Margin = 7.06% (Net Income TTM 2.79b / Revenue TTM 39.5b)
Gross Margin = 34.52% ((Revenue TTM 39.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 25.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.01% (prev 36.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.92 (Enterprise Value 344b / Total Assets 87.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.17% (Interest Expense 1.60b / Debt 22.4b)
Taxrate = 20.81% (509.9m / 2.45b)
NOPAT = 8.93b (EBIT 11.3b * (1 - 20.81%))
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 16.7b / Total Current Liabilities 13.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.61 (Debt 22.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 36.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.18 (Net Debt 17.1b / EBITDA 14.5b)
Debt / FCF = 5.09 (Net Debt 17.1b / FCF TTM 3.35b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 37.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.27% (Net Income 2.79b / Total Assets 87.5b)
RoE = 7.42% (Net Income TTM 2.79b / Total Stockholder Equity 37.6b)
RoCE = 19.26% (EBIT 11.3b / Capital Employed (Equity 37.6b + L.T.Debt 21.0b))
RoIC = 12.26% (NOPAT 8.93b / Invested Capital 72.8b)
WACC = 9.42% (E(327b)/V(349b) * Re(9.68%) + D(22.4b)/V(349b) * Rd(7.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.44 | Cagr: -0.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.57% ; FCFF base≈2.45b ; Y1≈2.81b ; Y5≈4.13b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.26 (EV 52.2b - Net Debt 17.1b = Equity 35.2b / Shares 4.26b; r=9.42% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -80.08 | EPS CAGR: -32.69% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -62.89 | Revenue CAGR: -3.68% | SUE: -2.19 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+3.00% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-1.64% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=+0.31% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=+0.74% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=-5.4% | GrowthRev=-0.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43% (up=5, down=15)