VALE Stock Analysis: Vale | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 48.728m USD | 12M Return: -1.8% | US91912E1055 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 397M
EPS Trend: -85.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -23.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) is a Brazil-based global mining company headquartered in Rio de Janeiro and one of the worlds largest producers of iron ore and nickel. Founded in 1942 as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and renamed Vale S.A. in May 2009, the company operates through two main segments: Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. Its product portfolio spans iron ore, pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, and a range of by-products including gold, silver, cobalt, and platinum-group metals, alongside low-carbon critical minerals. Vale runs an integrated logistics network of mining complexes, railways, maritime terminals, ports, and ships, and generates renewable energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources to support its operations. The company also conducts greenfield mineral exploration, research, and trading activities, with a geographic footprint across Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
As a large-cap Materials-sector stock within the steel sub-industry, Vales business model is anchored to bulk ferrous commodities, particularly iron ore used in steelmaking, which links its revenue closely to global steel demand and infrastructure cycles in major economies such as China. The vertical integration of its mining-rail-port-shipping infrastructure is a significant competitive advantage, allowing tighter control over costs and shipment reliability versus peers that rely on third-party logistics.
- Iron ore prices fall on weak China steel demand
- Nickel margins pressured by global supply surplus
- Dam safety regulations increase compliance costs
| Net Income: 599.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.81% < 20% (prev 8.55%; Δ -4.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.85b > Net Income 599.9m |
| Net Debt (16.3b) to EBITDA (13.9b): 1.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (4.27b) vs 12m ago -0.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.25% > 18% (prev 34.76%; Δ -3.52% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.11% > 50% (prev 40.56%; Δ 5.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.59 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.5b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 17.0b - Total Current Liabilities 15.4b) / Total Assets 88.6b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 20.0b / Total Assets 88.6b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 10.5b / Avg Total Assets 89.8b) |
| D: 0.75 (Book Value of Equity 37.6b / Total Liabilities 50.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.43 = A |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 4.47b/3.73b, Revenue 41.4b/36.9b) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 34.76% / 31.25%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 41.4b / 36.9b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 599.9m - CFO 9.85b) / TA 88.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.22 with a total of 13,385,910 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.19%, over one month by -16.08%, over three months by -18.70% and over the past year by -1.77%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.70 (which is 4.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Vale has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VALE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 15.3 | 36.6% |
P/E Trailing = 71.5625
P/E Forward = 6.4558
P/S = 0.2258
P/B = 1.2931
P/EG = 0.2725
Revenue TTM = 41.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.5b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.9b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.35b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 21.4b USD (corrected: LT Debt 19.4b + ST Debt 1.35b) + Leases 602.0m
Net Debt = 16.3b USD (calculated: Debt 21.4b - CCE 5.04b)
Enterprise Value = 65.1b USD (48.7b + Debt 21.4b - CCE 5.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.59 (Ebit TTM 10.5b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b)
EV/FCF = 17.21x (Enterprise Value 65.1b / FCF TTM 3.78b)
FCF Yield = 5.81% (FCF TTM 3.78b / Enterprise Value 65.1b)
FCF Margin = 9.13% (FCF TTM 3.78b / Revenue TTM 41.4b)
Net Margin = 1.45% (Net Income TTM 599.9m / Revenue TTM 41.4b)
Gross Margin = 31.25% ((Revenue TTM 41.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 28.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.38% (prev 30.69%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 65.1b / Total Assets 88.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.42% (Interest Expense 1.59b / Debt 21.4b)
Taxrate = 17.01% (260.8m / 1.53b)
NOPAT = 8.68b (EBIT 10.5b * (1 - 17.01%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 17.0b / Total Current Liabilities 15.4b)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 21.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.17 (Net Debt 16.3b / EBITDA 13.9b)
Debt / FCF = 4.32 (Net Debt 16.3b / FCF TTM 3.78b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 36.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.67% (Net Income 599.9m / Total Assets 88.6b)
RoE = 1.64% (Net Income TTM 599.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 36.5b)
RoCE = 18.71% (EBIT 10.5b / Capital Employed (Equity 36.5b + L.T.Debt 19.4b))
RoIC = 11.98% (NOPAT 8.68b / Invested Capital 72.5b)
WACC = 8.36% (E(48.7b)/V(70.1b) * Re(9.32%) + D(21.4b)/V(70.1b) * Rd(7.42%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -57.43 | Cagr: -0.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.95% ; FCFF base≈3.44b ; Y1≈3.95b ; Y5≈5.81b
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.69 (EV 87.3b - Net Debt 16.3b = Equity 71.0b / Shares 4.26b; r=8.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -85.76 | EPS CAGR: -51.31% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -23.10 | Revenue CAGR: -1.44% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-15.55% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=-7.22% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=-5.0% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.87 | Chg30d=-3.07% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+8.1% | GrowthRev=-0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -39% (up=4, down=11)