VALE Stock Analysis: Vale | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 57.112m USD | 12M Return: 27.4% | US91912E1055 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 413M
EPS Trend: -83.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -44.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) is a Brazil-based global mining company headquartered in Rio de Janeiro and one of the worlds largest producers of iron ore and nickel. Founded in 1942 as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and renamed Vale S.A. in May 2009, the company operates through two main segments: Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. Its product portfolio spans iron ore, pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, and a range of by-products including gold, silver, cobalt, and platinum-group metals, alongside low-carbon critical minerals. Vale runs an integrated logistics network of mining complexes, railways, maritime terminals, ports, and ships, and generates renewable energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources to support its operations. The company also conducts greenfield mineral exploration, research, and trading activities, with a geographic footprint across Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
As a large-cap Materials-sector stock within the steel sub-industry, Vales business model is anchored to bulk ferrous commodities, particularly iron ore used in steelmaking, which links its revenue closely to global steel demand and infrastructure cycles in major economies such as China. The vertical integration of its mining-rail-port-shipping infrastructure is a significant competitive advantage, allowing tighter control over costs and shipment reliability versus peers that rely on third-party logistics.
- Iron ore prices fall on weak China steel demand
- Nickel margins pressured by global supply surplus
- Dam safety regulations increase compliance costs
| Net Income: 2.03b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.89% < 20% (prev 8.64%; Δ -1.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.88b > Net Income 2.03b |
| Net Debt (16.4b) to EBITDA (14.7b): 1.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.19 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (4.27b) vs 12m ago -0.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.32% > 18% (prev 34.14%; Δ 0.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.88% > 50% (prev 39.92%; Δ 5.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 11.4b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 17.7b - Total Current Liabilities 14.8b) / Total Assets 89.3b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 4.41b / Total Assets 89.3b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 11.4b / Avg Total Assets 89.8b) |
| D: 0.75 (Book Value of Equity 38.0b / Total Liabilities 50.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.02 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 4.33b/3.74b, Revenue 41.2b/36.1b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 34.14% / 34.32%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 41.2b / 36.1b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 2.03b - CFO 9.88b) / TA 89.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.06 with a total of 26,351,535 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.11%, over one month by -7.57%, over three months by -5.54% and over the past year by +27.41%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.50 (which is 4.3% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Vale has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VALE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 16.6 | 27.1% |
Market Cap BRL = 289b (57.1b USD * 5.0648 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 26.84
P/E Forward = 7.1736
P/S = 0.2619
P/B = 1.582
P/EG = 0.3052
Revenue TTM = 41.2b BRL
EBIT TTM = 11.4b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 14.7b BRL
Long Term Debt = 20.3b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.26b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.2b BRL (corrected: LT Debt 20.3b + ST Debt 1.26b) + Leases 634.0m
Net Debt = 16.4b BRL (calculated: Debt 22.2b - CCE 5.77b)
Enterprise Value = 306b BRL (289b + Debt 22.2b - CCE 5.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.23 (Ebit TTM 11.4b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b)
EV/FCF = 79.21x (Enterprise Value 306b / FCF TTM 3.86b)
FCF Yield = 1.26% (FCF TTM 3.86b / Enterprise Value 306b)
FCF Margin = 9.36% (FCF TTM 3.86b / Revenue TTM 41.2b)
Net Margin = 4.92% (Net Income TTM 2.03b / Revenue TTM 41.2b)
Gross Margin = 34.32% ((Revenue TTM 41.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.69% (prev 33.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.42 (Enterprise Value 306b / Total Assets 89.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.13% (Interest Expense 1.58b / Debt 22.2b)
Taxrate = 20.83% (366.7m / 1.76b)
NOPAT = 9.05b (EBIT 11.4b * (1 - 20.83%))
Current Ratio = 1.19 (Total Current Assets 17.7b / Total Current Liabilities 14.8b)
Debt / Equity = 0.58 (Debt 22.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 38.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.12 (Net Debt 16.4b / EBITDA 14.7b)
Debt / FCF = 4.25 (Net Debt 16.4b / FCF TTM 3.86b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 37.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.26% (Net Income 2.03b / Total Assets 89.3b)
RoE = 5.44% (Net Income TTM 2.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 37.3b)
RoCE = 19.85% (EBIT 11.4b / Capital Employed (Equity 37.3b + L.T.Debt 20.3b))
RoIC = 12.28% (NOPAT 9.05b / Invested Capital 73.7b)
WACC = 9.38% (E(289b)/V(311b) * Re(9.67%) + D(22.2b)/V(311b) * Rd(7.13%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -70.64 | Cagr: -0.15%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.70% ; FCFF base≈3.09b ; Y1≈3.54b ; Y5≈5.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.75 (EV 66.4b - Net Debt 16.4b = Equity 50.0b / Shares 4.26b; r=9.38% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -83.93 | EPS CAGR: -38.28% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -44.81 | Revenue CAGR: -2.71% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-16.35% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.81 | Chg30d=-3.90% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=-0.8% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=-2.76% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+5.4% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -59% (up=3, down=16)