(VALE) Vale - Ratings and Ratios
Iron Ore, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt, Pellets
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.25% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.16% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 21.81% |
| Payout Consistency | 73.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 47.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 50.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.29% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.34 |
| Alpha | 32.67 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.406 |
| Beta | 0.708 |
| Beta Downside | 0.712 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.67% |
| Mean DD | 28.32% |
| Median DD | 28.65% |
Description: VALE Vale December 03, 2025
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) is a vertically integrated miner that extracts and processes iron ore, nickel, copper and cobalt, while also generating by-products such as gold, silver and platinum-group metals. Its operations span four continents and are organized into two segments-Iron Solutions and Energy Transition Materials-covering everything from ore extraction and pelletizing to logistics, railways, maritime terminals and renewable-energy investments.
According to Vale’s FY 2023 filing, the company shipped roughly 300 million tonnes of iron ore (≈ 55 % of global supply) and produced ≈ 140 kt of nickel, generating an EBITDA of about $30 billion and ending the year with net debt near $30 billion. The firm’s carbon-intensity metric for iron-ore pellet production has fallen to 0.85 t CO₂-e/tonne, reflecting its ongoing renewable-energy rollout.
The primary macro drivers of Vale’s earnings are (1) Chinese steel-making demand, which historically accounts for > 60 % of global iron-ore consumption; (2) the accelerating rollout of electric-vehicle batteries, boosting nickel and cobalt prices; and (3) freight-cost volatility, especially in Atlantic and Pacific shipping lanes, which directly impacts net-back margins on exported ore.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform provides a model-backed breakdown of VALE’s valuation levers and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (5.44b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.22b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 8.55% (prev -3.36%; Δ 11.91pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 9.10b > Net Income 5.44b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (12.62b) to EBITDA (13.46b) ratio: 0.94 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.24 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (4.27b) change vs 12m ago 0.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 34.76% (prev 39.18%; Δ -4.41pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 41.05% (prev 46.07%; Δ -5.02pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.65 (EBITDA TTM 13.46b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.28
| (A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 16.46b - Total Current Liabilities 13.31b) / Total Assets 91.06b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.53b / Total Assets 91.06b |
| (C) 0.12 = EBIT TTM 10.59b / Avg Total Assets 89.97b |
| (D) 0.91 = Book Value of Equity 44.67b / Total Liabilities 48.86b |
| Total Rating: 2.28 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.92
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.97% |
| 3. FCF Margin 7.96% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.94 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 11.28)% |
| 7. RoE 14.61% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -43.27% |
| 9. EPS Trend -55.45% |
What is the price of VALE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.30%, over one month by +4.79%, over three months by +24.04% and over the past year by +45.52%.
Is VALE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VALE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.6 | 5.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.6 | 5.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.1 | 24.7% |
VALE Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 9.6977
P/E Forward = 6.3573
P/S = 0.2509
P/B = 1.3013
P/EG = 10.5972
Beta = 0.906
Revenue TTM = 36.93b BRL
EBIT TTM = 10.59b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 13.46b BRL
Long Term Debt = 20.04b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 643.9m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.52b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.62b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 303.59b BRL (291.15b + Debt 18.52b - CCE 6.08b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.65 (Ebit TTM 10.59b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b)
FCF Yield = 0.97% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Enterprise Value 303.59b)
FCF Margin = 7.96% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Net Margin = 14.72% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Gross Margin = 34.76% ((Revenue TTM 36.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 24.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.44% (prev 30.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.33 (Enterprise Value 303.59b / Total Assets 91.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.02% (Interest Expense 373.7m / Debt 18.52b)
Taxrate = -3.12% (negative due to tax credits) (-81.5m / 2.61b)
NOPAT = 10.92b (EBIT 10.59b * (1 - -3.12%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 16.46b / Total Current Liabilities 13.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 18.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.94 (Net Debt 12.62b / EBITDA 13.46b)
Debt / FCF = 4.30 (Net Debt 12.62b / FCF TTM 2.94b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 37.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.97% (Net Income 5.44b / Total Assets 91.06b)
RoE = 14.61% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Total Stockholder Equity 37.22b)
RoCE = 18.49% (EBIT 10.59b / Capital Employed (Equity 37.22b + L.T.Debt 20.04b))
RoIC = 19.52% (NOPAT 10.92b / Invested Capital 55.94b)
WACC = 8.24% (E(291.15b)/V(309.67b) * Re(8.63%) + D(18.52b)/V(309.67b) * Rd(2.02%) * (1-Tc(-0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.85% ; FCFE base≈3.75b ; Y1≈2.46b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 4.70 (DCF Value 20.05b / Shares Outstanding 4.27b; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -55.45 | EPS CAGR: -13.52% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.27 | Revenue CAGR: -1.01% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.057 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.00 | Chg30d=+0.173 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=-4.5% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%
Additional Sources for VALE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle