(VALE) Vale - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: Brazil •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US91912E1055
Stock: Iron ore, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt, Pellets
Total Rating 66
Risk 85
Buy Signal 0.98
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 12.72% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 14.36% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -15.83% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 82.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.57% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.18 |
| Alpha | 87.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.743 |
| Beta Downside | 0.623 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.18 |
Description: VALE Vale January 28, 2026
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) is a vertically integrated miner that extracts and processes iron-ore, nickel, copper and cobalt, and also generates by-products such as gold, silver and platinum-group metals. Its operations span the Iron Solutions and Energy Transition Materials segments and include mining complexes, railways, maritime terminals and pelletizing plants that serve global markets across Asia, the Americas and Europe.
Key recent metrics: • 2023 iron-ore sales reached 302 Mt, a 6 % increase YoY, driven by higher Pellet prices averaging $115/tonne. • Net profit fell to US$6.6 bn, reflecting a $30 bn write-down on its logistics assets and a $1.5 bn increase in net debt to US$33 bn. • Nickel production rose 9 % to 260 kt, while the company announced a US$2 bn capex plan for expanding its nickel-cobalt battery-grade output, aligning with the projected +5 % annual growth in global EV battery demand.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consult the ValueRay model to explore how these drivers translate into valuation scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 5.44b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.55% < 20% (prev -3.36%; Δ 11.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 9.10b > Net Income 5.44b |
| Net Debt (12.62b) to EBITDA (13.46b): 0.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (4.27b) vs 12m ago 0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.76% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 3437 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.05% > 50% (prev 46.07%; Δ -5.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.65 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 13.46b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b) |
Altman Z'' 2.28
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 16.46b - Total Current Liabilities 13.31b) / Total Assets 91.06b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 8.53b / Total Assets 91.06b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 10.59b / Avg Total Assets 89.97b) |
| D: 0.91 (Book Value of Equity 44.67b / Total Liabilities 48.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.28 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.94
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 3.73b/3.72b, Revenue 36.93b/40.95b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 34.76% / 39.18%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 36.93b / 40.95b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 5.44b - CFO 9.10b) / TA 91.06b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of VALE shares?
As of February 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.07 with a total of 66,912,344 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.68%, over one month by +22.67%, over three months by +42.34% and over the past year by +93.67%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.68%, over one month by +22.67%, over three months by +42.34% and over the past year by +93.67%.
Is VALE a buy, sell or hold?
Vale has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.84.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy VALE.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VALE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.5 | -3.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.5 | -3.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 21.4 | 33.2% |
VALE Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
Market Cap BRL = 375.89b (71.50b USD * 5.2571 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 12.9845
P/E Forward = 8.3333
P/S = 0.3352
P/B = 1.7621
P/EG = 8.3007
Revenue TTM = 36.93b BRL
EBIT TTM = 10.59b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 13.46b BRL
Long Term Debt = 20.04b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 643.9m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.52b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.62b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 388.33b BRL (375.89b + Debt 18.52b - CCE 6.08b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.65 (Ebit TTM 10.59b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b)
EV/FCF = 132.1x (Enterprise Value 388.33b / FCF TTM 2.94b)
FCF Yield = 0.76% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Enterprise Value 388.33b)
FCF Margin = 7.96% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Net Margin = 14.72% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Gross Margin = 34.76% ((Revenue TTM 36.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 24.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.44% (prev 30.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.26 (Enterprise Value 388.33b / Total Assets 91.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.02% (Interest Expense 373.7m / Debt 18.52b)
Taxrate = 10.77% (721.0m / 6.70b)
NOPAT = 9.45b (EBIT 10.59b * (1 - 10.77%))
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 16.46b / Total Current Liabilities 13.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 18.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.94 (Net Debt 12.62b / EBITDA 13.46b)
Debt / FCF = 4.30 (Net Debt 12.62b / FCF TTM 2.94b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 37.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.04% (Net Income 5.44b / Total Assets 91.06b)
RoE = 14.61% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Total Stockholder Equity 37.22b)
RoCE = 18.49% (EBIT 10.59b / Capital Employed (Equity 37.22b + L.T.Debt 20.04b))
RoIC = 16.89% (NOPAT 9.45b / Invested Capital 55.94b)
WACC = 8.33% (E(375.89b)/V(394.41b) * Re(8.65%) + D(18.52b)/V(394.41b) * Rd(2.02%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 8.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.73% ; FCFF base≈3.75b ; Y1≈2.46b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 1.90 (EV 20.74b - Net Debt 12.62b = Equity 8.11b / Shares 4.27b; r=8.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -67.22 | EPS CAGR: -53.46% | SUE: -2.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.27 | Revenue CAGR: -1.01% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.052 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.21 | Chg30d=+0.210 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+3.6% | Growth Revenue=+5.6%
P/E Trailing = 12.9845
P/E Forward = 8.3333
P/S = 0.3352
P/B = 1.7621
P/EG = 8.3007
Revenue TTM = 36.93b BRL
EBIT TTM = 10.59b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 13.46b BRL
Long Term Debt = 20.04b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 643.9m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.52b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.62b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 388.33b BRL (375.89b + Debt 18.52b - CCE 6.08b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.65 (Ebit TTM 10.59b / Interest Expense TTM 1.59b)
EV/FCF = 132.1x (Enterprise Value 388.33b / FCF TTM 2.94b)
FCF Yield = 0.76% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Enterprise Value 388.33b)
FCF Margin = 7.96% (FCF TTM 2.94b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Net Margin = 14.72% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Revenue TTM 36.93b)
Gross Margin = 34.76% ((Revenue TTM 36.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 24.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.44% (prev 30.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.26 (Enterprise Value 388.33b / Total Assets 91.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.02% (Interest Expense 373.7m / Debt 18.52b)
Taxrate = 10.77% (721.0m / 6.70b)
NOPAT = 9.45b (EBIT 10.59b * (1 - 10.77%))
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 16.46b / Total Current Liabilities 13.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 18.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.94 (Net Debt 12.62b / EBITDA 13.46b)
Debt / FCF = 4.30 (Net Debt 12.62b / FCF TTM 2.94b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 37.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.04% (Net Income 5.44b / Total Assets 91.06b)
RoE = 14.61% (Net Income TTM 5.44b / Total Stockholder Equity 37.22b)
RoCE = 18.49% (EBIT 10.59b / Capital Employed (Equity 37.22b + L.T.Debt 20.04b))
RoIC = 16.89% (NOPAT 9.45b / Invested Capital 55.94b)
WACC = 8.33% (E(375.89b)/V(394.41b) * Re(8.65%) + D(18.52b)/V(394.41b) * Rd(2.02%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 8.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.73% ; FCFF base≈3.75b ; Y1≈2.46b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 1.90 (EV 20.74b - Net Debt 12.62b = Equity 8.11b / Shares 4.27b; r=8.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -67.22 | EPS CAGR: -53.46% | SUE: -2.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.27 | Revenue CAGR: -1.01% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.052 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.21 | Chg30d=+0.210 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+3.6% | Growth Revenue=+5.6%