(VEL) Velocity Financial - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US92262D1019

Residential, Loans, Commercial, Real, Estate

VEL EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of VEL over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-03": 0.12999974796482, "2020-06": 0.1065863493802, "2020-09": 0.10732233698166, "2020-12": 0.29201353947489, "2021-03": 0.10165534169485, "2021-06": 0.27835689045936, "2021-09": 0.23447913012978, "2021-12": 0.24383337712, "2022-03": 0.091246637820138, "2022-06": 0.31256423055466, "2022-09": 0.29190912014971, "2022-12": 0.24842204151132, "2023-03": 0.31272759309292, "2023-06": 0.35685413005272, "2023-09": 0.34798882842417, "2023-12": 0.49598468177531, "2024-03": 0.48678010101865, "2024-06": 0.41511235955056, "2024-09": 0.44025630310628, "2024-12": 0.57032440369006, "2025-03": 0.50009508027492, "2025-06": 0.68036517597248,

VEL Revenue

Revenue of VEL over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-03: 16.775, 2020-06: 11.825, 2020-09: 15.49, 2020-12: 22.663, 2021-03: 15.259, 2021-06: 23.494, 2021-09: 20.439, 2021-12: 51.549, 2022-03: 14.241, 2022-06: 28.36, 2022-09: 25.184, 2022-12: 24.988, 2023-03: 29.47, 2023-06: 30.17, 2023-09: 87.767, 2023-12: 93.693, 2024-03: 98.607, 2024-06: 107.092, 2024-09: 115.393, 2024-12: 124.886, 2025-03: 119.261, 2025-06: 151.59,

Description: VEL Velocity Financial

Velocity Financial, Inc. is a real estate finance company that specializes in originating, securitizing, and managing a diverse portfolio of loans secured by various types of properties, including rental properties, mixed-use developments, and commercial real estate. The companys business model is built around providing financing solutions to investors and property owners through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships.

With a strong presence in the US mortgage finance industry since its founding in 2004, Velocity Financial has established itself as a key player in the commercial and residential mortgage finance sector. The companys headquarters in Westlake Village, California, serves as the hub for its operations, which are geared towards delivering tailored financial products to its customers. For more information, visit the companys website at https://www.velfinance.com.

Analyzing the companys current market position, we observe that its stock price is currently at $18.61, with a 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $17.64 and a 50-day SMA of $17.32, indicating a positive short-term trend. The 200-day SMA stands at $18.83, suggesting that the stock is slightly below its long-term average. With an average true range (ATR) of 0.44, representing a 2.37% daily volatility, the stock has shown a relatively stable performance over the past year, with a 52-week high of $20.76 and a low of $16.30.

From a fundamental perspective, Velocity Financials market capitalization stands at $698.45 million, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.29, indicating a relatively undervalued stock compared to its earnings. The companys return on equity (RoE) is 13.67%, demonstrating a satisfactory level of profitability. Given these metrics, we can forecast that Velocity Financial is likely to continue its stable performance, driven by its solid business model and the demand for mortgage finance products in the US. Based on the technical and fundamental data, a potential forecast could be that the stock price may rise towards the $20.76 level, driven by a combination of its improving short-term trend and stable long-term fundamentals.

Our analysis suggests that Velocity Financial is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing demand for mortgage finance products, driven by its diversified loan portfolio and strong industry presence. As the company continues to execute its business strategy, we expect its stock price to reflect its improving financial performance and growth prospects.

VEL Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD 730m
Sub-Industry Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
IPO / Inception 2020-01-17

VEL Stock Ratings

Growth Rating 32.4%
Fundamental 59.9%
Dividend Rating -
Return 12m vs S&P 500 -12.5%
Analyst Rating 3.33 of 5

VEL Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

VEL Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m 16.2%
Growth Correlation 12m -68.2%
Growth Correlation 5y 78.3%
CAGR 5y 29.28%
CAGR/Max DD 5y 0.70
Sharpe Ratio 12m -0.18
Alpha -2.36
Beta 0.084
Volatility 23.95%
Current Volume 55.5k
Average Volume 20d 88.1k
Stop Loss 18.5 (-3%)
Signal 0.26

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income (80.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 30.7m TTM)
FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.25pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue -72.84% (prev -75.01%; Δ 2.17pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO 26.9m <= Net Income 80.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (-79.6m) to EBITDA (335.5m) ratio: -0.24 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 0.25 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (37.8m) change vs 12m ago 6.15% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 75.74% (prev 89.08%; Δ -13.35pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 9.01% (prev 7.94%; Δ 1.06pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 1.13 (EBITDA TTM 335.5m / Interest Expense TTM 295.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.18

(A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 123.7m - Total Current Liabilities 496.0m) / Total Assets 6.48b
(B) 0.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 242.2m / Total Assets 6.48b
(C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 334.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.67b
(D) 0.04 = Book Value of Equity 239.4m / Total Liabilities 5.87b
Total Rating: 0.18 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.85

1. Piotroski 2.0pt = -3.0
2. FCF Yield 0.42% = 0.21
3. FCF Margin 5.20% = 1.30
4. Debt/Equity 9.55 = -2.50
5. Debt/Ebitda 17.02 = -2.50
6. ROIC - WACC 2.59% = 3.24
7. RoE 14.89% = 1.24
8. Rev. Trend 91.73% = 4.59
9. Rev. CAGR 92.08% = 2.50
10. EPS Trend 91.14% = 2.28
11. EPS CAGR 36.03% = 2.50

What is the price of VEL shares?

As of August 31, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 19.08 with a total of 55,537 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.57%, over one month by +11.32%, over three months by +14.32% and over the past year by +2.31%.

Is Velocity Financial a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Velocity Financial is currently (August 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 59.85 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of VEL is around 21.33 USD . This means that VEL is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +11.79% (Margin of Safety).

Is VEL a buy, sell or hold?

Velocity Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold VEL.
  • Strong Buy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the VEL price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 21.3 11.8%
Analysts Target Price 21.3 11.8%
ValueRay Target Price 22.5 17.9%

Last update: 2025-08-21 02:50

VEL Fundamental Data Overview

Market Cap USD = 730.3m (730.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 79.6m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 8.5973
P/S = 3.734
P/B = 1.2215
Beta = 1.258
Revenue TTM = 511.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 334.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 335.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.38b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 331.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.71b USD (Calculated: Short Term 331.1m + Long Term 5.38b)
Net Debt = -79.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.36b USD (730.3m + Debt 5.71b - CCE 79.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.13 (Ebit TTM 334.1m / Interest Expense TTM 295.4m)
FCF Yield = 0.42% (FCF TTM 26.6m / Enterprise Value 6.36b)
FCF Margin = 5.20% (FCF TTM 26.6m / Revenue TTM 511.1m)
Net Margin = 15.75% (Net Income TTM 80.5m / Revenue TTM 511.1m)
Gross Margin = 75.74% ((Revenue TTM 511.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 124.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 26.57 (Enterprise Value 6.36b / Book Value Of Equity 239.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.43% (Interest Expense 81.8m / Debt 5.71b)
Taxrate = 28.97% (from yearly Income Tax Expense: 27.9m / 96.4m)
NOPAT = 237.3m (EBIT 334.1m * (1 - 28.97%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 123.7m / Total Current Liabilities 496.0m)
Debt / Equity = 9.55 (Debt 5.71b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 597.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 17.02 (Net Debt -79.6m / EBITDA 335.5m)
Debt / FCF = 215.0 (Debt 5.71b / FCF TTM 26.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 540.7m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 1.24% (Net Income 80.5m, Total Assets 6.48b )
RoE = 14.89% (Net Income TTM 80.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 540.7m)
RoCE = 5.64% (Ebit 334.1m / (Equity 540.7m + L.T.Debt 5.38b))
RoIC = 4.21% (NOPAT 237.3m / Invested Capital 5.64b)
WACC = 1.62% (E(730.3m)/V(6.44b) * Re(6.32%)) + (D(5.71b)/V(6.44b) * Rd(1.43%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: 90.0 | Cagr: 2.48%
Discount Rate = 6.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + ERP 8.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.97% ; FCFE base≈28.8m ; Y1≈24.9m ; Y5≈19.8m
Fair Price DCF = 9.37 (DCF Value 360.1m / Shares Outstanding 38.4m; 5y FCF grow -16.49% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 91.73 | Revenue CAGR: 92.08%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: -63.91
EPS Correlation: 91.14 | EPS CAGR: 36.03%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: -8.73

Additional Sources for VEL Stock

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