(VEL) Velocity Financial - Overview

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 751m USD | Total Return: 11.4% in 12m

Mortgage Lending, Loan Management, Real Estate Finance
Total Rating 55
Safety 62
Buy Signal 1.01
Mortgage Finance
Industry Rotation: +25.2
Market Cap: 751M
Avg Turnover: 1.98M USD
ATR: 2.61%
Peers RS (IBD): 62.5
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility23.3%
Rel. Tail Risk-10.0%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.47
Alpha6.78
Character TTM
Beta0.193
Beta Downside0.287
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD25.60%
CAGR/Max DD1.18
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of VEL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.2, "2021-06": 0.25, "2021-09": 0.23, "2021-12": 0.29, "2022-03": 0.36, "2022-06": 0.31, "2022-09": 0.29, "2022-12": 0.27, "2023-03": 0.33, "2023-06": 0.38, "2023-09": 0.37, "2023-12": 0.46, "2024-03": 0.51, "2024-06": 0.45, "2024-09": 0.47, "2024-12": 0.6, "2025-03": 0.55, "2025-06": 0.69, "2025-09": 0.65, "2025-12": 0.93,
EPS CAGR: 28.80%
EPS Trend: 92.7%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 3
Revenue Revenue of VEL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 41.641, 2021-06: 45.488, 2021-09: 45.248, 2021-12: 49.497, 2022-03: 54.937, 2022-06: 58.041, 2022-09: 62.923, 2022-12: 73.418, 2023-03: 79.585, 2023-06: 84.544, 2023-09: 91.274, 2023-12: 103.134, 2024-03: 98.607, 2024-06: 114.412, 2024-09: 119.279, 2024-12: 124.886, 2025-03: 119.261, 2025-06: 166.016, 2025-09: 172.294, 2025-12: 182.325,
Rev. CAGR: 37.70%
Rev. Trend: 98.6%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 3

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Pead

Description: VEL Velocity Financial

Velocity Financial, Inc. is a real estate finance company operating in the United States. It specializes in originating, securitizing, and managing loans secured by various real estate assets.

The companys loan portfolio includes investor 1-4 unit residential rental properties, residential apartments with commercial space, multi-family, mixed-use, and commercial properties. Real estate finance companies often leverage securitization to free up capital for new lending.

Velocity Financial distributes its products through independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. This business model is common among non-bank lenders in the commercial and residential mortgage finance sector.

For more detailed financial analysis, consider exploring ValueRays comprehensive reports.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Interest rate fluctuations impact loan demand and profitability
  • Real estate market health drives loan performance
  • Securitization market conditions affect liquidity and capital
  • Regulatory changes in mortgage lending create compliance costs
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 104.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.44 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -25.91% < 20% (prev -62.02%; Δ 36.11% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 18.2m > Net Income 104.6m
Net Debt (6.45b) to EBITDA (511.3m): 12.61 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.46 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.2m) vs 12m ago 5.77% < -2%
Gross Margin: 94.78% > 18% (prev 0.65%; Δ 9.41k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.91% > 50% (prev 8.27%; Δ 1.64% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.40 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 511.3m / Interest Expense TTM 365.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.56
A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 143.7m - Total Current Liabilities 309.5m) / Total Assets 7.38b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 302.4m / Total Assets 7.38b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 509.7m / Avg Total Assets 6.45b)
D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 300.2m / Total Liabilities 6.71b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.56 = B
Beneish M -3.64
DSRI: 0.23 (Receivables 51.6m/160.1m, Revenue 639.9m/457.2m)
GMI: 0.68 (GM 94.78% / 64.69%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.96)
SGI: 1.40 (Revenue 639.9m / 457.2m)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 104.6m - CFO 18.2m) / TA 7.38b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.64 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of VEL shares? As of April 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.56 with a total of 60,431 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.82%, over one month by +13.52%, over three months by -0.20% and over the past year by +11.39%.
Is VEL a buy, sell or hold? Velocity Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold VEL.
  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VEL price?
Analysts Target Price 21.7 10.8%
Velocity Financial (VEL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 13 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 6.96
P/S = 3.3285
P/B = 1.1166
Revenue TTM = 639.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 509.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 511.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.23b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 309.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.45b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.20b USD (751.0m + Debt 6.54b - CCE 92.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.40 (Ebit TTM 509.7m / Interest Expense TTM 365.0m)
EV/FCF = 405.2x (Enterprise Value 7.20b / FCF TTM 17.8m)
FCF Yield = 0.25% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Enterprise Value 7.20b)
FCF Margin = 2.78% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Revenue TTM 639.9m)
Net Margin = 16.34% (Net Income TTM 104.6m / Revenue TTM 639.9m)
Gross Margin = 94.78% ((Revenue TTM 639.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 33.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 44.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 7.20b / Total Assets 7.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 106.9m / Debt 6.54b)
Taxrate = 30.56% (15.3m / 50.0m)
NOPAT = 354.0m (EBIT 509.7m * (1 - 30.56%))
Current Ratio = 0.46 (Total Current Assets 143.7m / Total Current Liabilities 309.5m)
Debt / Equity = 9.72 (Debt 6.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 672.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.61 (Net Debt 6.45b / EBITDA 511.3m)
Debt / FCF = 362.9 (Net Debt 6.45b / FCF TTM 17.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 617.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.62% (Net Income 104.6m / Total Assets 7.38b)
RoE = 16.95% (Net Income TTM 104.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 617.0m)
RoCE = 7.45% (EBIT 509.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 617.0m + L.T.Debt 6.23b))
RoIC = 5.42% (NOPAT 354.0m / Invested Capital 6.53b)
WACC = 1.70% (E(751.0m)/V(7.29b) * Re(6.63%) + D(6.54b)/V(7.29b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 6.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 84.96% ; FCFF base≈25.6m ; Y1≈22.6m ; Y5≈18.6m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 560.2m - Net Debt 6.45b = -5.89b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: 92.66 | EPS CAGR: 28.80% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 98.62 | Revenue CAGR: 37.70% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.69 | Chg7d=+0.060 | Chg30d=+0.060 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.77 | Chg7d=+0.203 | Chg30d=+0.203 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-4.8% | Growth Revenue=+24.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.34 | Chg7d=+0.540 | Chg30d=+0.540 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+20.6% | Growth Revenue=+17.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Current Year)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = -6.4% (Discount Rate 7.9% - Earnings Yield 14.4%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +25.8% (Analyst 19.4% - Implied -6.4%)
External Resources
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