(VEL) Velocity Financial - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US92262D1019

Stock: Mortgage Lending, Loan Management, Real Estate Finance

Total Rating 29

Risk 70

Buy Signal -0.37

Mortgage Finance -2.6
Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance -8.4

Market Cap: 700m
Avg Trading Vol: 1.86M USD

ATR: 2.68%
Peers RS (IBD): 50.0

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	24.7%
Relative Tail Risk	-16.0%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.41
Alpha	-17.82

Character TTM
Beta	0.161
Beta Downside	0.053

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	25.60%
CAGR/Max DD	1.26

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -45.40%
EPS Trend: 32.6%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 39.46%
Rev. Trend: 98.6%

Last SUE: 1.20
Qual. Beats: 2

Description: VEL Velocity Financial March 04, 2026

Velocity Financial, Inc. is a real estate finance company operating in the United States. It specializes in originating, securitizing, and managing loans secured by various real estate assets.

The companys loan portfolio includes investor 1-4 unit residential rental properties, residential apartments with commercial space, multi-family, mixed-use, and commercial properties. Real estate finance companies often leverage securitization to free up capital for new lending.

Velocity Financial distributes its products through independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. This business model is common among non-bank lenders in the commercial and residential mortgage finance sector.

For more detailed financial analysis, consider exploring ValueRays comprehensive reports.

Headlines to watch out for

Interest rate fluctuations impact loan demand and profitability
Real estate market health drives loan performance
Securitization market conditions affect liquidity and capital
Regulatory changes in mortgage lending create compliance costs

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income: 90.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -31.61% < 20% (prev -91.77%; Δ 60.16% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 55.9m > Net Income 90.4m
Net Debt (6.05b) to EBITDA (279.3m): 21.67 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.45 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.8m) vs 12m ago 8.09% < -2%
Gross Margin: 51.25% > 18% (prev 0.54%; Δ 5071 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.58% > 50% (prev 8.37%; Δ 1.21% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.84 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 279.3m / Interest Expense TTM 332.7m)

Altman Z'' 0.30

A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 148.3m - Total Current Liabilities 332.4m) / Total Assets 6.96b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 267.6m / Total Assets 6.96b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 278.2m / Avg Total Assets 6.08b)
D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 265.1m / Total Liabilities 6.32b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.30 = B

Beneish M -3.33

DSRI: 0.27 (Receivables 46.6m/130.9m, Revenue 582.5m/435.4m)
GMI: 1.05 (GM 51.25% / 54.05%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.97)
SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 582.5m / 435.4m)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 90.4m - CFO 55.9m) / TA 6.96b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.33 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of VEL shares?

As of March 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.16 with a total of 126,912 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.98%, over one month by -9.88%, over three months by -7.63% and over the past year by -9.06%.

Is VEL a buy, sell or hold?

Velocity Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold VEL.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the VEL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	21.7	19.3%
Analysts Target Price	21.7	19.3%

VEL Fundamental Data Overview March 08, 2026

P/E Trailing = 7.4958
P/S = 3.0511
P/B = 1.1175
Revenue TTM = 582.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 278.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 279.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 332.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.05b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.75b USD (699.8m + Debt 6.15b - CCE 99.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.84 (Ebit TTM 278.2m / Interest Expense TTM 332.7m)
EV/FCF = 121.6x (Enterprise Value 6.75b / FCF TTM 55.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.82% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Enterprise Value 6.75b)
FCF Margin = 9.53% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Net Margin = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Gross Margin = 51.25% ((Revenue TTM 582.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 283.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.62% (prev 46.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 6.75b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.55% (Interest Expense 95.0m / Debt 6.15b)
Taxrate = 28.16% (9.96m / 35.4m)
NOPAT = 199.9m (EBIT 278.2m * (1 - 28.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.45 (Total Current Assets 148.3m / Total Current Liabilities 332.4m)
Debt / Equity = 9.70 (Debt 6.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 634.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 21.67 (Net Debt 6.05b / EBITDA 279.3m)
Debt / FCF = 109.0 (Net Debt 6.05b / FCF TTM 55.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 578.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.49% (Net Income 90.4m / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 15.63% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 578.1m)
RoCE = 4.35% (EBIT 278.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 578.1m + L.T.Debt 5.82b))
RoIC = 3.29% (NOPAT 199.9m / Invested Capital 6.07b)
WACC = 1.66% (E(699.8m)/V(6.85b) * Re(6.51%) + D(6.15b)/V(6.85b) * Rd(1.55%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 2.90%
[DCF] Terminal Value 85.21% ; FCFF base≈43.0m ; Y1≈38.7m ; Y5≈33.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.00b - Net Debt 6.05b = -5.05b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 32.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.40% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.56 | Revenue CAGR: 39.46% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.57 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-5.1% | Growth Revenue=+26.3%

Additional Sources for VEL Stock

Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle