VET Stock Analysis: Vermilion Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.727m USD | 12M Return: 40.3% | CA9237251058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -78.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vermilion Energy Inc. (NYSE: VET) is a Canada-based, internationally diversified upstream oil and gas company that focuses on acquiring, exploring, developing, and optimizing producing petroleum and natural gas properties. Its asset base spans three continents, including core operations in the West Pembina region of Alberta (Canada), the Paris Basin and southwest Bordeaux (France), the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary.
As an exploration and production (E&P) operator, Vermilion participates only in the upstream segment of the energy value chain, which involves locating reserves, drilling wells, and lifting hydrocarbons, rather than midstream transportation or downstream refining. The geographic mix, with material exposure to European basins that are gas-weighted, gives the company a degree of currency and commodity diversification uncommon among North American small-cap peers, which often concentrate activity in a single country or basin. With a market capitalization of approximately $1.7 billion USD, Vermilion sits in the small-cap segment of the global energy sector.
- European TTF gas prices lift Netherlands and Germany segment margins
- French production cap regulation curbs long-term output growth
- WTI crude swings drive Canadian West Pembina segment revenue
| Net Income: -446.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.03% < 20% (prev 27.35%; Δ -27.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 921.5m > Net Income -446.4m |
| Net Debt (1.32b) to EBITDA (305.7m): 4.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (155.9m) vs 12m ago 0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.48% > 18% (prev 55.83%; Δ -25.35% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.49% > 50% (prev 30.97%; Δ -0.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM -484.4m / Interest Expense TTM 114.9m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 572.3m - Total Current Liabilities 572.8m) / Total Assets 5.49b |
| B: -0.37 (Retained Earnings -2.03b / Total Assets 5.49b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -484.4m / Avg Total Assets 6.10b) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 2.16b / Total Liabilities 3.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.06 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 291.7m/299.6m, Revenue 1.86b/2.08b) |
| GMI: 1.83 (GM 55.83% / 30.48%) |
| AQI: 2.54 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 1.86b / 2.08b) |
| TATA: -0.25 (NI -446.4m - CFO 921.5m) / TA 5.49b) |
| Beneish M = -1.39 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.53 with a total of 800,470 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.23%, over one month by -10.93%, over three months by +28.34% and over the past year by +40.34%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.50 (which is 8.9% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Vermilion Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VET.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 27.2 | 136.1% |
Market Cap CAD = 2.46b (1.73b USD * 1.4261 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 15.1745
P/S = 0.938
P/B = 1.1584
P/EG = 3.58
Revenue TTM = 1.86b CAD
EBIT TTM = -484.4m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 305.7m CAD
Long Term Debt = 1.31b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.20m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.40b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 46.8m
Net Debt = 1.32b CAD (calculated: Debt 1.40b - CCE 81.8m)
Enterprise Value = 3.78b CAD (2.46b + Debt 1.40b - CCE 81.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.21 (Ebit TTM -484.4m / Interest Expense TTM 114.9m)
EV/FCF = 11.22x (Enterprise Value 3.78b / FCF TTM 337.2m)
FCF Yield = 8.91% (FCF TTM 337.2m / Enterprise Value 3.78b)
FCF Margin = 18.13% (FCF TTM 337.2m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = -24.00% (Net Income TTM -446.4m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 30.48% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.29b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.84% (prev 25.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 3.78b / Total Assets 5.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.20% (Interest Expense 114.9m / Debt 1.40b)
Taxrate = 36.69% (78.0m / 212.7m)
NOPAT = -306.7m (EBIT -484.4m * (1 - 36.69%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.00 (Total Current Assets 572.3m / Total Current Liabilities 572.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 1.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.32 (Net Debt 1.32b / EBITDA 305.7m)
Debt / FCF = 3.92 (Net Debt 1.32b / FCF TTM 337.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.32% (Net Income -446.4m / Total Assets 5.49b)
RoE = -19.53% (Net Income TTM -446.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.29b)
RoCE = -13.48% (EBIT -484.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.29b + L.T.Debt 1.31b))
RoIC = -6.33% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -306.7m / Invested Capital 4.85b)
WACC = 6.33% (E(2.46b)/V(3.86b) * Re(6.98%) + D(1.40b)/V(3.86b) * Rd(8.20%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 6.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.43 | Cagr: -2.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈259.0m ; Y1≈296.9m ; Y5≈436.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 34.38 (EV 6.57b - Net Debt 1.32b = Equity 5.25b / Shares 152.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -77.96 | Revenue CAGR: -4.39% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-22.22% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+19.51% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+120.7% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=+20.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+120.4% | GrowthRev=+8.0%