VET Stock Analysis: Vermilion Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.344m USD | 12M Return: 28.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.8M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: -75.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vermilion Energy Inc. (NYSE: VET) is a Canada-based international oil and gas producer engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of hydrocarbon-producing properties. The company operates a geographically diversified portfolio spanning North America, Europe, and Australia, with core assets located in Western Canada (West Pembina region of Alberta), France (Aquitaine and Paris Basin), the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Australia. Headquartered in Calgary and founded in 1994, Vermilion has been publicly traded since its 2010 IPO.
The company operates within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (E&P) subsector of the energy industry. A distinguishing feature of Vermilions business model is its emphasis on acquiring and optimizing already-producing assets rather than relying solely on greenfield exploration, which generally provides more predictable cash flow and lower development risk. Its international footprint across multiple jurisdictions also exposes the company to a mix of regulatory regimes, fiscal terms, and commodity-market dynamics uncommon among North American-focused peers.
- European natural gas prices drive Netherlands and Germany margins
- Windfall profit taxes threaten French and EU upstream economics
- West Pembina oil production anchors dividend and capital return program
| Net Income: -814.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -15.50% < 20% (prev -10.49%; Δ -5.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 891.2m > Net Income -814.1m |
| Net Debt (1.34b) to EBITDA (335.3m): 3.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (152.7m) vs 12m ago -1.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.87% > 18% (prev 55.89%; Δ -20.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.68% > 50% (prev 28.05%; Δ 0.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.59 > 6 (EBIT TTM -453.7m / Interest Expense TTM 126.5m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 486.0m - Total Current Liabilities 767.0m) / Total Assets 5.56b |
| B: -0.39 (Retained Earnings -2.15b / Total Assets 5.56b) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -453.7m / Avg Total Assets 6.32b) |
| D: 0.58 (Book Value of Equity 2.05b / Total Liabilities 3.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.46 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 279.8m/321.1m, Revenue 1.81b/1.99b) |
| GMI: 1.56 (GM 55.89% / 35.87%) |
| AQI: 3.77 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 1.81b / 1.99b) |
| TATA: -0.31 (NI -814.1m - CFO 891.2m) / TA 5.56b) |
| Beneish M = -1.01 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.52 with a total of 1,437,838 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%, over one month by -17.35%, over three months by -26.18% and over the past year by +28.38%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.90 (which is 6.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Vermilion Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VET.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 53.5% |
Market Cap CAD = 1.91b (1.34b USD * 1.4196 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 22.2222
P/S = 0.7892
P/B = 0.9563
P/EG = 3.58
Revenue TTM = 1.81b CAD
EBIT TTM = -453.7m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 335.3m CAD
Long Term Debt = 1.25b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.20m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.36b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 48.8m
Net Debt = 1.34b CAD (calculated: Debt 1.36b - CCE 16.4m)
Enterprise Value = 3.25b CAD (1.91b + Debt 1.36b - CCE 16.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.59 (Ebit TTM -453.7m / Interest Expense TTM 126.5m)
EV/FCF = 10.79x (Enterprise Value 3.25b / FCF TTM 300.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.27% (FCF TTM 300.9m / Enterprise Value 3.25b)
FCF Margin = 16.60% (FCF TTM 300.9m / Revenue TTM 1.81b)
Net Margin = -44.90% (Net Income TTM -814.1m / Revenue TTM 1.81b)
Gross Margin = 35.87% ((Revenue TTM 1.81b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.43% (prev 6.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.58 (Enterprise Value 3.25b / Total Assets 5.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.33% (Interest Expense 126.5m / Debt 1.36b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -358.4m (EBIT -453.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 486.0m / Total Current Liabilities 767.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 1.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.99 (Net Debt 1.34b / EBITDA 335.3m)
Debt / FCF = 4.45 (Net Debt 1.34b / FCF TTM 300.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.88% (Net Income -814.1m / Total Assets 5.56b)
RoE = -33.67% (Net Income TTM -814.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.42b)
RoCE = -12.35% (EBIT -453.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.42b + L.T.Debt 1.25b))
RoIC = -7.49% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -358.4m / Invested Capital 4.79b)
WACC = 7.94% (E(1.91b)/V(3.26b) * Re(8.35%) + D(1.36b)/V(3.26b) * Rd(9.33%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -87.41 | Cagr: -3.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.72% ; FCFF base≈289.5m ; Y1≈316.0m ; Y5≈395.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 30.74 (EV 6.05b - Net Debt 1.34b = Equity 4.71b / Shares 153.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.53% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.18 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -75.40 | Revenue CAGR: -6.98% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=+857.14% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-22.22% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=-79.40% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+117.3% | GrowthRev=+11.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=-37.50% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+119.5% | GrowthRev=-3.2%